Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Evolution of sensory complexity recorded in a myxobacterial genome.

Myxobacteria are single-celled, but social, eubacterial predators. Upon starvation they build multicellular fruiting bodies using a developmental program that progressively changes the pattern of cell movement and the repertoire of genes expressed. Development terminates with spore differentiation and is coordinated by both diffusible and cell-bound signals. The growth and development of Myxococcus xanthus is regulated by the integration of multiple signals from outside the cells with physiological signals from within. A collection of M. xanthus cells behaves, in many respects, like a multicellular organism. For these reasons M. xanthus offers unparalleled access to a regulatory network that controls development and that organizes cell movement on surfaces. The genome of M. xanthus is large (9.14 Mb), considerably larger than the other sequenced delta-proteobacteria. We suggest that gene duplication and divergence were major contributors to genomic expansion from its progenitor. More than 1,500 duplications specific to the myxobacterial lineage were identified, representing >15% of the total genes. Genes were not duplicated at random; rather, genes for cell-cell signaling, small molecule sensing, and integrative transcription control were amplified selectively. Families of genes encoding the production of secondary metabolites are overrepresented in the genome but may have been received by horizontal gene transfer and are likely to be important for predation.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes by labor onset type and gestational age.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine maternal and neonatal outcomes by labor onset type and gestational age. STUDY DESIGN: We used electronic medical records data from 10 US institutions in the Consortium on Safe Labor on 115,528 deliveries from 2002 through 2008. Deliveries were divided by labor onset type (spontaneous, elective induction, indicated induction, unlabored cesarean). Neonatal and maternal outcomes were calculated by labor onset type and gestational age. RESULTS: Neonatal intensive care unit admissions and sepsis improved with each week of gestational age until 39 weeks (P < .001). After adjusting for complications, elective induction of labor was associated with a lower risk of ventilator use (odds ratio [OR], 0.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.28-0.53), sepsis (OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.26-0.49), and neonatal intensive care unit admissions (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.48-0.57) compared to spontaneous labor. The relative risk of hysterectomy at term was 3.21 (95% CI, 1.08-9.54) with elective induction, 1.16 (95% CI, 0.24-5.58) with indicated induction, and 6.57 (95% CI, 1.78-24.30) with cesarean without labor compared to spontaneous labor. CONCLUSION: Some neonatal outcomes improved until 39 weeks. Babies born with elective induction are associated with better neonatal outcomes compared to spontaneous labor. Elective induction may be associated with an increased hysterectomy risk.

EVALUATION OF INTENSITY MODULATED RADIATION THERAPY (IMRT) DELIVERY ERROR DUE TO IMRT TREATMENT PLAN COMPLEXITY AND IMPROPERLY MATCHED DOSIMETRY DATA

Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is a technique that delivers a highly conformal dose distribution to a target volume while attempting to maximally spare the surrounding normal tissues. IMRT is a common treatment modality used for treating head and neck (H&N) cancers, and the presence of many critical structures in this region requires accurate treatment delivery. The Radiological Physics Center (RPC) acts as both a remote and on-site quality assurance agency that credentials institutions participating in clinical trials. To date, about 30% of all IMRT participants have failed the RPC’s remote audit using the IMRT H&N phantom. The purpose of this project is to evaluate possible causes of H&N IMRT delivery errors observed by the RPC, specifically IMRT treatment plan complexity and the use of improper dosimetry data from machines that were thought to be matched but in reality were not. Eight H&N IMRT plans with a range of complexity defined by total MU (1460-3466), number of segments (54-225), and modulation complexity scores (MCS) (0.181-0.609) were created in Pinnacle v.8m. These plans were delivered to the RPC’s H&N phantom on a single Varian Clinac. One of the IMRT plans (1851 MU, 88 segments, and MCS=0.469) was equivalent to the median H&N plan from 130 previous RPC H&N phantom irradiations. This average IMRT plan was also delivered on four matched Varian Clinac machines and the dose distribution calculated using a different 6MV beam model. Radiochromic film and TLD within the phantom were used to analyze the dose profiles and absolute doses, respectively. The measured and calculated were compared to evaluate the dosimetric accuracy. All deliveries met the RPC acceptance criteria of ±7% absolute dose difference and 4 mm distance-to-agreement (DTA). Additionally, gamma index analysis was performed for all deliveries using a ±7%/4mm and ±5%/3mm criteria. Increasing the treatment plan complexity by varying the MU, number of segments, or varying the MCS resulted in no clear trend toward an increase in dosimetric error determined by the absolute dose difference, DTA, or gamma index. Varying the delivery machines as well as the beam model (use of a Clinac 6EX 6MV beam model vs. Clinac 21EX 6MV model), also did not show any clear trend towards an increased dosimetric error using the same criteria indicated above.

Certified nurse midwives effects on catecholamine levels and maternal anxiety during labor

Studies of nurse midwifery care in the last twenty one years have reported excellent birth outcomes (Levy, Wilkenson and Marine, 1971; Platt et al. 1985; Stone et al. 1976). These outcomes are frequently attributed to the special support offered during labor and delivery by nurse midwives. This supportive style is thought to decrease catecholamine levels by reducing maternal anxiety. This prospective observational study evaluated catecholamine levels, anxiety levels, in-hospital costs, obstetrical practices and outcomes between low risk, term, labor and delivery primigravida patients managed by obstetrical residents (n = 55) or by certified nurse-midwives CNM (n = 59). The two groups were similar with regard to obstetrical risk factors present at admission. Each group was selected over the same period of time between March 23, 1994 and November 2, 1994. Specific catecholamines evaluated were epinephrine and norepinephrine. Obstetrical and newborn characteristics were also compared. This study did not prove that there is a decreased level in stress as indicated by lower levels of epinephrine and norepinephrine in nurse-midwife patients compared to obstetrical resident patients after adjusting for the use of epidural anesthesia. There was also no difference found in the perceived anxiety levels between the two groups. This study did confirm that nurse-midwives and obstetrical residents have different practice styles. Nurse-midwife patients had fewer augmented deliveries, fewer operative deliveries, less blood loss, fewer episiotomies and fewer third and fourth degree lacerations. The physician's choice to utilize more interventions such as continuous fetal monitoring and epidural anesthesia did not improve outcomes. The hospital cost of the nurse-midwife patients in this study was 35 percent lower than the physician patients. ^

Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and immunoglobulins in an older Swiss cohort: results of the Senior Labor Study.

BACKGROUND Vitamin D and the components of humoral immunity play important roles in human health. Older people have lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) serum levels than younger adults. We aimed to determine the levels of 25(OH)D serum concentrations in healthy senior citizens and to study their relationship to the levels of components of humoral immunity. METHODS A total of 1,470 healthy Swiss men and women, 60 years or older, were recruited for this study. A total of 179 subjects dropped out of the study because of elevated serum concentrations of C-reactive protein. Fasting blood sera were analyzed for 25(OH)D with the high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and for parathyroid hormone (PTH), immunoglobulins and complement C4 and C3 concentrations with immunoassays. The percentage of participants in each of the four 25(OH)D deficiency groups--severely deficient (<10 ng/ml), deficient (10 to 20), insufficient (21 to 29 ng/ml) and normal (>=30 ng/ml)--were statistically compared. The relationship of the major components of the humoral system and age with 25(OH)D levels was also assessed. RESULTS About 66% of the subjects had insufficient levels of 25(OH)D. Normal levels of 25(OH)D were found in 26.1% of the subjects of which 21% were males and 30.5% were females (total study population). Severely deficient levels of 25(OH)D were found in 7.98% of the total study population. Low levels of 25(OH)D were positively associated with IgG2 (P = 0.01) and with C4 (P = 0.02), yet were inversely related to levels of IgG1 and IgA (P < 0.05) and C3 (P = 0.01). Serum levels of total IgA, IgG, IgG2 and IgG4 peaked together with 25(OH)D during late summer. CONCLUSIONS Approximately two-thirds of the healthy, older Swiss population presented with Vitamin D insufficiency. The incremental shift in IgA and C3 levels might not necessarily reflect a deranged humoral immune defense; however, given the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency, the importance of this condition in humoral immunity will be worth looking at more closely. This study supports the role of vitamin D in the competent immune system.

Tocolysis for preterm labor: expert opinion

Tocolysis is an important treatment in the improvement of outcome in preterm labor and preterm birth, provided that its use follows clear evidence-based recommendations. In this expert opinion, the most recent evidence about efficacy and side effects of different tocolytics is being reviewed and evidence-based recommendation about diagnosis and treatment of preterm labor is given. Further aspects such as progesterone administration or antibiotic treatment for the prevention of preterm birth are included. Our review demonstrates that an individualized choice of different tocolytics and additional treatments is necessary to improve short- and long-term neonatal outcome in preterm labor and preterm birth.

Intrapartum detection of Group B streptococci colonization by rapid PCR-test on labor ward

OBJECTIVE Group B streptococci (GBS) may lead to early onset neonatal sepsis with severe morbidity and mortality of newborns. Intrapartum detection of GBS is needed. The objective was to compare a PCR-based test performed in the laboratory versus labor ward. STUDY DESIGN 300 patients were included prospectively. In phase I, swabs were analyzed by selective culture and rapid PCR in the laboratory. In phase II, swabs were analyzed accordingly, but the PCR test was conducted in labor ward. Test performances were analyzed and compared. RESULTS In phase I the rapid PCR test had a sensitivity of 85.71% and a specificity of 95.9%. The GBS colonization rate was 18.67%. Overall 8.5% of the PCR results were invalid. In phase II the PCR test showed a sensitivity of 85.71% and a specificity of 95.65%. The GBS colonization rate was 23.3%. Overall 23.5% of swabs tested with PCR were invalid. Initiation of specific, short 2-hour training for operating personnel in the labor ward reduced the invalid test rate to 13.4%. CONCLUSION The rapid PCR-based test yields adequate results to identify GBS colonization when performed in labor ward. In order to reduce the number of invalid tests a short training period is needed.