Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Aspects of quality control of wind profiler measurements in complex topography

It is well known in the scientific community that some remote sensing instruments assume that sample volumes present homogeneous conditions within a defined meteorological profile. At complex topographic sites and under extreme meteorological conditions, this assumption may be fallible depending on the site, and it is more likely to fail in the lower layers of the atmosphere. This piece of work tests the homogeneity of the wind field over a boundary layer wind profiler radar located in complex terrain on the coast under different meteorological conditions. The results reveal the qualitative importance of being aware of deviations in this homogeneity assumption and evaluate its effect on the final product. Patterns of behavior in data have been identified in order to simplify the analysis of the complex signal registered. The quality information obtained from the homogeneity study under different meteorological conditions provides useful indicators for the best alternatives the system can offer to build wind profiles. Finally, the results are also to be considered in order to integrate them in a quality algorithm implemented at the product level.

Chemistry of secondary organic aerosol

The photooxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmosphere can lead to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), a major component of fine particulate matter. Improvements to air quality require insight into the many reactive intermediates that lead to SOA formation, of which only a small fraction have been measured at the molecular level. This thesis describes the chemistry of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from several atmospherically relevant hydrocarbon precursors. Photooxidation experiments of methoxyphenol and phenolic compounds and C₁₂ alkanes were conducted in the Caltech Environmental Chamber. These experiments include the first photooxidation studies of these precursors run under sufficiently low NO_x levels, such that RO₂ + HO₂ chemistry dominates, an important chemical regime in the atmosphere. Using online Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometery (CIMS), key gas-phase intermediates that lead to SOA formation in these systems were identified. With complementary particle-phase analyses, chemical mechanisms elucidating the SOA formation from these compounds are proposed.

Three methoxyphenol species (phenol, guaiacol, and syringol) were studied to model potential photooxidation schemes of biomass burning intermediates. SOA yields (ratio of mass of SOA formed to mass of primary organic reacted) exceeding 25% are observed. Aerosol growth is rapid and linear with the organic conversion, consistent with the formation of essentially non-volatile products. Gas and aerosol-phase oxidation products from the guaiacol system show that the chemical mechanism consists of highly oxidized aromatic species in the particle phase. Syringol SOA yields are lower than that of phenol and guaiacol, likely due to unique chemistry dependent on methoxy group position.

The photooxidation of several C₁₂ alkanes of varying structure n-dodecane, 2-methylundecane, cyclododecane, and hexylcyclohexane) were run under extended OH exposure to investigate the effect of molecular structure on SOA yields and photochemical aging. Peroxyhemiacetal formation from the reactions of several multifunctional hydroperoxides and aldehyde intermediates was found to be central to organic growth in all systems, and SOA yields increased with cyclic character of the starting hydrocarbon. All of these studies provide direction for future experiments and modeling in order to lessen outstanding discrepancies between predicted and measured SOA.

Coastal management measures for the lower Maumee Watershed, Lake Erie

In January 2006 the Maumee Remedial Action Plan (RAP) Committee submitted a State II Watershed Restoration Plan for the Maumee River Great Lakes Area of Concern (AOC) area located in NW Ohio to the State of Ohio for review and endorsement (MRAC, 2006). The plan was created in order to fulfill the requirements, needs and/or use of five water quality programs including: Ohio Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Watershed Coordinator Program; Ohio EPA Great Lakes RAP Program; Ohio DNR Coastal Non-point Source Pollution Control Program; Ohio EPA Total Maximum Daily Load Program; and US Fish & Wildlife Service Natural Resources Damage Program. The plan is intended to serve as a comprehensive regional management approach for all jurisdictions, agencies, organizations, and individuals who are working to restore the watershed, waterways and associated coastal zone. The plan includes: background information and mapping regarding hydrology, geology, ecoregions, and land use, and identifies key causes and sources for water quality concerns within the six 11-digit hydrological units (HUCs), and one large river unit that comprise the Maumee AOC. Tables were also prepared that contains detailed project lists for each major watershed and was organized to facilitate the prioritization of research and planning efforts. Also key to the plan and project tables is a reference to the Ohio DNR Coastal Management Measures that may benefit from the implementation of an identified project. This paper will examine the development of the measures and their importance for coastal management and watershed planning in the Maumee AOC. (PDF contains 4 pages)

The role of women in artisanal fisheries along the Lower Benue River

A questionnaire survey was carried out to assess the role of women in the artisanal fisheries of fish markets sector along the Lower Benue River. Four (4) fishing settlement communities of fish markets along the Lower Benue were selected. They are namely North Bank, Wadata, Abinse and Gbajimba . Structure and unstructured questionnaire were administered to cover areas of personal data, fish production activities, processing and marketing among others. The study revealed that women along the Lower Benue River participate activity in the artisanal fisheries sub-sector. However, the major role played by the women was in the area of processing and preservation, marketing and distribution. These accounted 52 and 42% respectively. The distribution of the women was not tribally based however, Jukun women accounted for 66.20% followed by Agatu women 13.00%. The age bracket of the women mostly involved in fisheries activities was between 31-40 years. About 86% of them was married. The initial capital base was low and mostly by personal saving accounting for 52%. Need for government assistance was the highlight in this study. About 86% sought for Federal Government intervention from the National Poverty Eradication Programme. This they felt will be a welcome development to boost women participation in the Artisanal fisheries sub-sector along the Lower Benue River

2D modeling of lower mantle structure with WKM synthetics

The Earth is very heterogeneous, especially in the region close to the surface of the Earth, and in regions close to the core-mantle boundary (CMB). The lowermost mantle (bottom 300km of the mantle) is the place for fast anomaly (3% faster S velocity than PREM, modeled from Scd), for slow anomaly (-3% slower S velocity than PREM, modeled from S,ScS), for extreme anomalous structure (ultra-low velocity zone, 30% lower inS velocity, 10% lower in P velocity). Strong anomaly with larger dimension is also observed beneath Africa and Pacific, originally modeled from travel time of S, SKS and ScS. Given the heterogeneous nature of the earth, more accurate approach (than travel time) has to be applied to study the details of various anomalous structures, and matching waveform with synthetic seismograms has proven effective in constraining the velocity structures. However, it is difficult to make synthetic seismograms in more than 1D cases where no exact analytical solution is possible. Numerical methods like finite difference or finite elements are too time consuming in modeling body waveforms. We developed a 2D synthetic algorithm, which is extended from 1D generalized ray theory (GRT), to make synthetic seismograms efficiently (each seismogram per minutes). This 2D algorithm is related to WKB approximation, but is based on different principles, it is thus named to be WKM, i.e., WKB modified. WKM has been applied to study the variation of fast D" structure beneath the Caribbean sea, to study the plume beneath Africa. WKM is also applied to study PKP precursors which is a very important seismic phase in modeling lower mantle heterogeneity. By matching WKM synthetic seismograms with various data, we discovered and confirmed that (a) The D" beneath Caribbean varies laterally, and the variation is best revealed with Scd+Sab beyond 88 degree where Sed overruns Sab. (b) The low velocity structure beneath Africa is about 1500 km in height, at least 1000km in width, and features 3% reduced S velocity. The low velocity structure is a combination of a relatively thin, low velocity layer (200 km thick or less) beneath the Atlantic, then rising very sharply into mid mantle towards Africa. (c) At the edges of this huge Africa low velocity structures, ULVZs are found by modeling the large separation between S and ScS beyond 100 degree. The ULVZ to the eastern boundary was discovered with SKPdS data, and later is confirmed by PKP precursor data. This is the first time that ULVZ is verified with distinct seismic phase.

Effects of gamma-irradiation on Al2O3 crystals grown under reducing atmosphere

Gamma-ray irradiation-induced color centers in Al2O3 crystals grown by temperature gradient techniques (TGT) under a strongly reducing atmosphere were studied. The transition F+ -> F takes place during the irradiation process. Glow discharge mass spectroscopy (GDMS) and annealing treatments show that Fe3+ impurity ions are present in the crystals. A composite (F+-Fe3+) defect was presented to explain the origin of the 255 nm band absorption in the TGT-Al2O3 crystals. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The development of an asymmetric palladium-catalyzed conjugate addition and its application toward the total syntheses of taiwaniaquinoid natural products

The asymmetric synthesis of quaternary stereocenters remains a challenging problem in organic synthesis. Past work from the Stoltz laboratory has resulted in methodology to install quaternary stereocenters α- or γ- to carbonyl compounds. Thus, the asymmetric synthesis of β-quaternary stereocenters was a desirable objective, and was accomplished by engineering the palladium-catalyzed addition of arylmetal organometallic reagents to α,β-unsaturated conjugate acceptors.

Herein, we described the rational design of a palladium-catalyzed conjugate addition reactions utilizing a catalyst derived from palladium(II) trifluoroacetate and pyridinooxazole ligands. This reaction is highly tolerant of protic solvents and oxygen atmosphere, making it a practical and operationally simple reaction. The mild conditions facilitate a remarkably high functional group tolerance, including carbonyls, halogens, and fluorinated functional groups. Furthermore, the reaction catalyzed conjugate additions with high enantioselectivity with conjugate acceptors of 5-, 6-, and 7-membered ring sizes. Extension of the methodology toward the asymmetric synthesis of flavanone products is presented, as well.

A computational and experimental investigation into the reaction mechanism provided a stereochemical model for enantioinduction, whereby the α-methylene protons adjacent the enone carbonyl clashes with the tert-butyl groups of the chiral ligand. Additionally, it was found that the addition of water and ammonium hexafluorophosphate significantly increases the reaction rate without sacrificing enantioselectivity. The synergistic effects of these additives allowed for the reaction to proceed at a lower temperature, and thus facilitated expansion of the substrate scope to sensitive functional groups such as protic amides and aryl bromides. Investigations into a scale-up synthesis of the chiral ligand (S)-tert-butylPyOx are also presented. This three-step synthetic route allowed for synthesis of the target compound of greater than 10 g scale.

Finally, the application of the newly developed conjugate addition reaction toward the synthesis of the taiwaniaquinoid class of terpenoid natural products is discussed. The conjugate addition reaction formed the key benzylic quaternary stereocenter in high enantioselectivity, joining together the majority of the carbons in the taiwaniaquinoid scaffold. Efforts toward the synthesis of the B-ring are presented.

Monitoring fish populations in Lower Lough Erne, Northern Ireland: applicability of current methods and implications for future monitoring under the EC Water Framework Directive

The proposed EC Water Framework Directive (WFD) will require member states to monitor both biotic and abiotic components of lake environments. With adoption of the WFD some measurement of fish populations will also be required. This paper describes work carried out since 1971, and particularly since 1991, on the status of fish populations in Lower Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, with an emphasis on defining change over time due to human impacts on the lake. This offers a reasonable starting point from which to develop a monitoring programme suitable for the needs of the WFD in this lake. The implications for as yet unmonitored fish populations in lakes are also determined.

Observations of hydrogen and helium isotopes in solar cosmic rays

The isotopic composition of hydrogen and helium in solar cosmic rays provides a means of studying solar flare particle acceleration mechanisms since the enhanced relative abundance of rare isotopes, such as ²H, ³H and ³He, is due to their production by inelastic nuclear collisions in the solar atmosphere during the flare. In this work the Caltech Electron/Isotope Spectrometer on the IMP-7 spacecraft has been used to measure this isotopic composition. The response of the dE/dx-E particle telescope is discussed and alpha particle channeling in thin detectors is identified as an important background source affecting measurement of low values of (³He/⁴He).

The following flare-averaged results are obtained for the period, October, 1972 - November, 1973: (²H/¹H) = 7⁺¹⁰_-6 X 10^-6 (1.6 - 8.6 MeV/nuc), (³H/¹H) less than 3.4 x 10^-6 (1.2 - 6.8 MeV/nuc), (³He/⁴He) = (9 ± 4) x 10^-3, (³He/¹H) = (1.7 ± 0.7) x 10^-4 (3.1 - 15.0 MeV/nuc). The deuterium and tritium ratios are significantly lower than the same ratios at higher energies, suggesting that the deuterium and tritium spectra are harder than that of the protons. They are, however, consistent with the same thin target model relativistic path length of ~ 1 g/cm² (or equivalently ~ 0.3 g/cm² at 30 MeV/nuc) which is implied by the higher energy results. The ³He results, consistent with previous observations, would imply a path length at least 3 times as long, but the observations may be contaminated by small ³He rich solar events.

During 1973 three "³He rich events," containing much more ³He than ²H or ³H were observed on 14 February, 29 June and 5 September. Although the total production cross sections for ²H,³H and ³He are comparable, an upper limit to (²H/³He) and (³H/³He) was 0.053 (2.9-6.8 MeV/nuc), summing over the three events. This upper limit is marginally consistent with Ramaty and Kozlovsky's thick target model which accounts for such events by the nuclear reaction kinematics and directional properties of the flare acceleration process. The 5 September event was particularly significant in that much more ³He was observed than ⁴He and the fluxes of ³He and ¹H were about equal. The range of (³He/⁴He) for such events reported to date is 0.2 to ~ 6 while (³He/¹H) extends from 10^-3 to ~ 1. The role of backscattered and mirroring protons and alphas in accounting for such variations is discussed.

Secondary Organic Aerosol Composition Studies Using Mass Spectrometry

Trace volatile organic compounds emitted by biogenic and anthropogenic sources into the atmosphere can undergo extensive photooxidation to form species with lower volatility. By equilibrium partitioning or reactive uptake, these compounds can nucleate into new aerosol particles or deposit onto already-existing particles to form secondary organic aerosol (SOA). SOA and other atmospheric particulate matter have measurable effects on global climate and public health, making understanding SOA formation a needed field of scientific inquiry. SOA formation can be done in a laboratory setting, using an environmental chamber; under these controlled conditions it is possible to generate SOA from a single parent compound and study the chemical composition of the gas and particle phases. By studying the SOA composition, it is possible to gain understanding of the chemical reactions that occur in the gas phase and particle phase, and identify potential heterogeneous processes that occur at the surface of SOA particles. In this thesis, mass spectrometric methods are used to identify qualitatively and qualitatively the chemical components of SOA derived from the photooxidation of important anthropogenic volatile organic compounds that are associated with gasoline and diesel fuels and industrial activity (C12 alkanes, toluene, and o-, m-, and p-cresols). The conditions under which SOA was generated in each system were varied to explore the effect of NO_x and inorganic seed composition on SOA chemical composition. The structure of the parent alkane was varied to investigate the effect on the functionalization and fragmentation of the resulting oxidation products. Relative humidity was varied in the alkane system as well to measure the effect of increased particle-phase water on condensed-phase reactions. In all systems, oligomeric species, resulting potentially from particle-phase and heterogeneous processes, were identified. Imines produced by reactions between (NH₄)₂SO₄ seed and carbonyl compounds were identified in all systems. Multigenerational photochemistry producing low- and extremely low-volatility organic compounds (LVOC and ELVOC) was reflected strongly in the particle-phase composition as well.

Comparative drift studies on streams in lower Austria (Flysch, gneiss and chalk formations) [Translation from: Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Hydrobiologie 30 138-185, 1968.]

Seasonal changes and flooding have an extraordinarily great influence on the drift of organisms. The free water space plays the main part in the provision of food for some fish (Salmo trutta - trout): drift and content of the stomach are balanced here (Simuliidae): whereas others (Thymallus vulgaris) only selectively chose certain animals living at the bottom (molluscs). The total drift, drift of organisms and drift of organic material and minerals, plays a main role in the rate of production in streams. Besides the biology of the organisms living on the river bed, also the geological and hydrographical situation of the area plays a very important role for the composition of the drift. During the years 1964-1966 three streams in the characteristical geological formations flysch, gneiss and chalk of lower Austria were studied in regard to their drift. The Tulln (above St. Christopen), the Krems (above Senftenberg) and the Schwarza (above Hirschwang) seemed to be ideal for this comparative study because they are easy to reach. After summarising the hydrography and chemistry of examined rivers, the author examines the relationship between water level and total drift and the stratification of the total drift before analysing the drift of living organisms. Also considered are seasonal changes of drift of organisms and drift of exuviae.

Estudo da desativação térmica de catalisadores à base de óxidos mistos de cério e zircônio

Em termos ambientais, os catalisadores automotivos se destacam pelos resultados altamente significativos alcançados após seu uso obrigatório em veículos leves. No entanto, as condições térmicas em que eles operam podem levar a um processo de perda de atividade significativa, após certo tempo de operação. Dentro desse contexto, este trabalho estudou o efeito da temperatura na desativação térmica de catalisadores automotivo modelo. Foram preparados catalisadores baseados em óxido misto de cério e zircônio na proporção 50% em mol de cério e zircônio (CZ). A partir dele foram produzidos os catalisadores Pd-CZ e Pd-CZ-LaAl. O catalisador Pd-CZ foi produzido pela impregnação do CZ com Pd na concentração de 0,5% m/m de CZ. O catalisador Pd-CZ-LaAl foi produzido a partir de uma mistura física do Pd-CZ com o suporte LaAl (alumina dopada com La na concentração de 1,9 % m/m de Al2O3), seguida de calcinação a 500˚C. Foram realizados envelhecimentos a 900C e 1200C em mufla com atmosfera oxidante por 12 e 36h. Os catalisadores foram caracterizados por um conjunto de técnicas físico-químicas. Foram realizadas análises de fisissorção de N2 para a medição da área específica e o estudo da evolução do diâmetro e volume de poros das amostras novas e envelhecidas. Análises de difração de raios X (DRX) foram feitas de forma a acompanhar possíveis transições de fases após o envelhecimento das amostras. Foi realizada análise química para validar a composição das amostras e ensaios de análise térmica para o catalisador CZ visando identificar a temperatura onde ocorre o fenômeno de segregação de fases. Realizaram-se ensaios de redução a temperatura programada (RTP) visando quantificar o consumo de hidrogênio e associá-lo à evolução da redutibilidade das amostras após o envelhecimento térmico. Finalmente, a avaliação catalítica foi realizada com base nas reações de oxidação do CO e do propano e de redução do NO pelo CO, através da obtenção de curvas de lightoff. As análises de DRX mostraram que o envelhecimento a 900C ocasionou alterações de fases da alumina, mas não foi verificada segregação de fases no CZ. Já a 1200C observou-se a referida segregação de fases, que coincide com a drástica queda na área específica das amostras, em alguns casos observando-se o colapso das propriedades texturais do catalisador. As análises de RTP mostraram que, em determinadas condições, o envelhecimento térmico promove a redutibilidade do sistema CZ e a introdução de Pd torna o catalisador mais facilmente redutível o que é evidenciado pelo deslocamento dos picos de redução para temperaturas mais baixas em comparação ao CZ puro. Os testes catalíticos mostraram que a introdução do Pd é um fator fundamental para a conversão do propano. Os catalisadores contendo Pd também converteram melhor o CO. Para os catalisadores envelhecidos a 1200C, o único resultado positivo foi no caso do Pd-CZ-LaAl que apesar deste tratamento térmico, ainda converteu o CO, propano e NO. Desta forma o catalisador Pd-CZ-LaAl apresentou resultados mais satisfatórios e isto evidencia que a mistura com LaAl melhora o desempenho e a estabilidade térmica do catalisador em altas temperaturas (acima de 300C).