Assessment of the dietary intake of total flavan-3-ols, monomeric flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and theaflavins in the European Union

Dietary interventions with flavan-3-ols have shown beneficial effects on vascular function. The translation of these findings into the context of the health of the general public requires detailed information on habitual dietary intake. However, only limited data are currently available for European populations. Therefore, in the present study, we assessed the habitual intake of flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins (PA) and theaflavins in the European Union (EU) and determined their main food sources using the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database. Data for adults aged 18–64 years were available from fourteen European countries, and intake was determined using the FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition Database, developed for the present study and based on the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases. The mean habitual intake of flavan-3-ol monomers, theaflavins and PA ranged from 181 mg/d (Czech Republic) to 793 mg/d (Ireland). The highest intakes of flavan-3-ol monomers and theaflavins were observed in Ireland (191/505 mg/d) and the lowest intakes in Spain (24/9 mg/d). In contrast, the daily intake of PA was highest in Spain (175 mg/d) and lowest in The Netherlands (96 mg/d). Main sources were tea (62 %), pome fruits (11 %), berries (3 %) and cocoa products (3 %). Tea was the major single contributor to monomer intake (75 %), followed by pome fruits (6 %). Pome fruits were also the main source of PA (28 %). The present study provides important data on the population-based intake of flavanols in the EU and demonstrates that dietary intake amounts for flavan-3-ol monomers, PA and theaflavins vary significantly across European countries. The average habitual intake of flavan-3-ols is considerably below the amounts used in most dietary intervention studies.

Quantifying errors due to frequency changes and target location uncertainty for radar refractivity retrievals

Radar refractivity retrievals can capture near-surface humidity changes, but noisy phase changes of the ground clutter returns limit the accuracy for both klystron- and magnetron-based systems. Observations with a C-band (5.6 cm) magnetron weather radar indicate that the correction for phase changes introduced by local oscillator frequency changes leads to refractivity errors no larger than 0.25 N units: equivalent to a relative humidity change of only 0.25% at 20°C. Requested stable local oscillator (STALO) frequency changes were accurate to 0.002 ppm based on laboratory measurements. More serious are the random phase change errors introduced when targets are not at the range-gate center and there are changes in the transmitter frequency (ΔfTx) or the refractivity (ΔN). Observations at C band with a 2-μs pulse show an additional 66° of phase change noise for a ΔfTx of 190 kHz (34 ppm); this allows the effect due to ΔN to be predicted. Even at S band with klystron transmitters, significant phase change noise should occur when a large ΔN develops relative to the reference period [e.g., ~55° when ΔN = 60 for the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radars]. At shorter wavelengths (e.g., C and X band) and with magnetron transmitters in particular, refractivity retrievals relative to an earlier reference period are even more difficult, and operational retrievals may be restricted to changes over shorter (e.g., hourly) periods of time. Target location errors can be reduced by using a shorter pulse or identified by a new technique making alternate measurements at two closely spaced frequencies, which could even be achieved with a dual–pulse repetition frequency (PRF) operation of a magnetron transmitter.

Understanding and representing atmospheric convection across scales: recommendations from the meeting held at Dartington Hall, Devon, UK, 28–30 January 2013

As weather and climate models move toward higher resolution, there is growing excitement about potential future improvements in the understanding and prediction of atmospheric convection and its interaction with larger-scale phenomena. A meeting in January 2013 in Dartington, Devon was convened to address the best way to maximise these improvements, specifically in a UK context but with international relevance. Specific recommendations included increased convective-scale observations, high-resolution virtual laboratories, and a system of parameterization test beds with a range of complexities. The main recommendation was to facilitate the development of physically based convective parameterizations that are scale-aware, non-local, non-equilibrium, and stochastic.

The surface temperatures of Earth: steps towards integrated understanding of variability and change

Surface temperature is a key aspect of weather and climate, but the term may refer to different quantities that play interconnected roles and are observed by different means. In a community-based activity in June 2012, the EarthTemp Network brought together 55 researchers from five continents to improve the interaction between scientific communities who focus on surface temperature in particular domains, to exploit the strengths of different observing systems and to better meet the needs of different communities. The workshop identified key needs for progress towards meeting scientific and societal requirements for surface temperature understanding and information, which are presented in this community paper. A "whole-Earth" perspective is required with more integrated, collaborative approaches to observing and understanding Earth's various surface temperatures. It is necessary to build understanding of the relationships between different surface temperatures, where presently inadequate, and undertake large-scale systematic intercomparisons. Datasets need to be easier to obtain and exploit for a wide constituency of users, with the differences and complementarities communicated in readily understood terms, and realistic and consistent uncertainty information provided. Steps were also recommended to curate and make available data that are presently inaccessible, develop new observing systems and build capacities to accelerate progress in the accuracy and usability of surface temperature datasets.

Serum carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes as potential biomarkers of dietary intake and their relation with incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-Norfolk study

Background: Stable-isotope ratios of carbon (13C/12C, expressed as δ13C) and nitrogen (15N/14N, or δ15N) have been proposed as potential nutritional biomarkers to distinguish between meat, fish, and plant-based foods. Objective: The objective was to investigate dietary correlates of δ13C and δ15N and examine the association of these biomarkers with incident type 2 diabetes in a prospective study. Design: Serum δ13C and δ15N (‰) were measured by using isotope ratio mass spectrometry in a case-cohort study (n = 476 diabetes cases; n = 718 subcohort) nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)–Norfolk population-based cohort. We examined dietary (food-frequency questionnaire) correlates of δ13C and δ15N in the subcohort. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated by using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Results: Mean (±SD) δ13C and δ15N were −22.8 ± 0.4‰ and 10.2 ± 0.4‰, respectively, and δ13C (r = 0.22) and δ15N (r = 0.20) were positively correlated (P < 0.001) with fish protein intake. Animal protein was not correlated with δ13C but was significantly correlated with δ15N (dairy protein: r = 0.11; meat protein: r = 0.09; terrestrial animal protein: r = 0.12, P ≤ 0.013). δ13C was inversely associated with diabetes in adjusted analyses (HR per tertile: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.65, 0.83; P-trend < 0.001], whereas δ15N was positively associated (HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.38; P-trend = 0.001). Conclusions: The isotope ratios δ13C and δ15N may both serve as potential biomarkers of fish protein intake, whereas only δ15N may reflect broader animal-source protein intake in a European population. The inverse association of δ13C but a positive association of δ15N with incident diabetes should be interpreted in the light of knowledge of dietary intake and may assist in identifying dietary components that are associated with health risks and benefits.

Changes in the distribution of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in urban areas in Great Britain: findings and limitations of a media-driven nationwide survey

Urbanization is one of the major forms of habitat alteration occurring at the present time. Although this is typically deleterious to biodiversity, some species flourish within these human-modified landscapes, potentially leading to negative and/or positive interactions between people and wildlife. Hence, up-to-date assessment of urban wildlife populations is important for developing appropriate management strategies. Surveying urban wildlife is limited by land partition and private ownership, rendering many common survey techniques difficult. Garnering public involvement is one solution, but this method is constrained by the inherent biases of non-standardised survey effort associated with voluntary participation. We used a television-led media approach to solicit national participation in an online sightings survey to investigate changes in the distribution of urban foxes in Great Britain and to explore relationships between urban features and fox occurrence and sightings density. Our results show that media-based approaches can generate a large national database on the current distribution of a recognisable species. Fox distribution in England and Wales has changed markedly within the last 25 years, with sightings submitted from 91% of urban areas previously predicted to support few or no foxes. Data were highly skewed with 90% of urban areas having <30 fox sightings per 1000 people km-2. The extent of total urban area was the only variable with a significant impact on both fox occurrence and sightings density in urban areas; longitude and percentage of public green urban space were respectively, significantly positively and negatively associated with sightings density only. Latitude, and distance to nearest neighbouring conurbation had no impact on either occurrence or sightings density. Given the limitations associated with this method, further investigations are needed to determine the association between sightings density and actual fox density, and variability of fox density within and between urban areas in Britain.

Decreased monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols

The Northern Hemisphere monsoons are an integral component of Earth's hydrological cycle and affect the lives of billions of people. Observed precipitation in the monsoon regions underwent substantial changes during the second half of the 20th century, with drying from the 1950s to mid-1980s and increasing precipitation in recent decades. Modeling studies suggest anthropogenic aerosols has been a key factor driving changes in tropical and monsoon precipitation. Here we apply detection and attribution methods to determine whether observed changes are driven by human influences using fingerprints of individual forcings (i.e. greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol and natural) derived from climate models. The results show that the observed changes can only be explained when including the influence of anthropogenic aerosols, even after accounting for internal climate variability. Anthropogenic aerosol, not greenhouse gas or natural forcing, has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation over the second half of the 20th century.

Using an individual-based model to select among alternative foraging strategies of woodpigeons: data support a memory-based model with a flocking mechanism

Population modelling is increasingly recognised as a useful tool for pesticide risk assessment. For vertebrates that may ingest pesticides with their food, such as woodpigeon (Columba palumbus), population models that simulate foraging behaviour explicitly can help predicting both exposure and population-level impact. Optimal foraging theory is often assumed to explain the individual-level decisions driving distributions of individuals in the field, but it may not adequately predict spatial and temporal characteristics of woodpigeon foraging because of the woodpigeons’ excellent memory, ability to fly long distances, and distinctive flocking behaviour. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) of the woodpigeon. We used the model to predict distributions of foraging woodpigeons that use one of six alternative foraging strategies: optimal foraging, memory-based foraging and random foraging, each with or without flocking mechanisms. We used pattern-oriented modelling to determine which of the foraging strategies is best able to reproduce observed data patterns. Data used for model evaluation were gathered during a long-term woodpigeon study conducted between 1961 and 2004 and a radiotracking study conducted in 2003 and 2004, both in the UK, and are summarised here as three complex patterns: the distributions of foraging birds between vegetation types during the year, the number of fields visited daily by individuals, and the proportion of fields revisited by them on subsequent days. The model with a memory-based foraging strategy and a flocking mechanism was the only one to reproduce these three data patterns, and the optimal foraging model produced poor matches to all of them. The random foraging strategy reproduced two of the three patterns but was not able to guarantee population persistence. We conclude that with the memory-based foraging strategy including a flocking mechanism our model is realistic enough to estimate the potential exposure of woodpigeons to pesticides. We discuss how exposure can be linked to our model, and how the model could be used for risk assessment of pesticides, for example predicting exposure and effects in heterogeneous landscapes planted seasonally with a variety of crops, while accounting for differences in land use between landscapes.

Polyphenols, glucosinolates, dietary fibre and colon cancer: Understanding the potential of specific types of fruit and vegetables to reduce bowel cancer progression

Colorectal cancer is the third most prevalent cancer worldwide and the most common diet-related cancer, influenced by diets rich in red meat, low in plant foods and high in saturated fats. Observational studies have shown that fruit and vegetable intake may reduce colorectal cancer risks, although the precise bioactive components remain unclear. This review will outline the evidence for the role of polyphenols, glucosinolates and fibres against cancer progression in the gastrointestinal tract. Those bioactive compounds are considered protective agents against colon cancer, with evidence taken from epidemiological, human clinical, animal and in vitro studies. Various mechanisms of action have been postulated, such as the potential of polyphenols and glucosinolates to inhibit cancer cell growth and the actions of insoluble fibres as prebiotics and the evidence for these actions are detailed within. In addition, recent evidence suggests that polyphenols also have the potential to shift the gut ecology in a beneficial manner. Such actions of both fibre and polyphenols in the gastrointestinal tract and through interaction with gut epithelial cells may act in an additive manner to help explain why certain fruits and vegetables, but not all, act to differing extents to inhibit cancer incidence and progression. Indeed, a focus on the individual actions of such fruit and vegetable components, in particular polyphenols, glucosinolates and fibres is necessary to help explain which components are active in reducing gastrointestinal cancer risk.

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.

Bis amide-aromatic-ureasd - highly effective hydro- and organogelator systems

A series of hydro- and organo-supergelators have been synthesised via coupling of simple bis aromaticureas via alkyl amide linkages. These bis amide-aromatic-ureas exhibited reduced critical gelator concentrations, improved gelator stability, mechanical and dye removal properties for potential use in water purification, in comparison to related bis aromatic-ureas. Systematic structure studies via variation of the bis amide-aromatic-urea linker length as well as functionalization of the terminal aromatic moieties have enabled control over the gel properties.

Association between sucrose intake and risk of overweight and obesity in a prospective sub-cohort of EPIC-Norfolk

Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate associations between sugar intake and overweight using dietary biomarkers in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). Design: Prospective cohort study Setting: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) in the UK, recruitment between 1993 and 1997. Subjects: 1734 participants (39 – 77 years). Sucrose intake was assessed using 7-day diaries. Baseline spot urine samples were analysed for sucrose by GC-MS. Sucrose concentration adjusted by specific gravity was used as biomarker for intake. Regression analyses were used to investigate associations between sucrose intake and risk of BMI > 25 kg/m2 after three years of follow-up. Results: After three years of follow-up, mean BMI was 26.8 kg/m2. Self-reported sucrose intake was significantly positively associated with biomarker. Associations between biomarker and BMI were positive (β=0.25; 95% CI: 0.08; 0.43), while they were inverse when using self-reported dietary data (β=-1.40; 95% CI: -1.81; -0.99). Age- and sex-adjusted OR for BMI > 25 kg/m2 in participants in the fifth vs. first quintile was 1.54 (95% CI: 1.12; 2.12; pTrend=0.003,) when using biomarker and 0.56 (95% CI: 0.40; 0.77; pTrend<0.001) with self-reported dietary data. Conclusions: Our results suggest that sucrose measured by objective biomarker but not self-reported sucrose intake is positively associated with body mass index. Future studies should consider use of objective biomarkers of sucrose intake.

Bis amide-aromatic-ureasd highly effective hydro- and organogelator systems

A series of hydro- and organo-supergelators have been synthesised via coupling of simple bis aromaticureas via alkyl amide linkages. These bis amide-aromatic-ureas exhibited reduced critical gelator concentrations, improved gelator stability, mechanical and dye removal properties for potential use in water purification, in comparison to related bis aromatic-ureas. Systematic structure studies via variation of the bis amide-aromatic-urea linker length as well as functionalization of the terminal aromatic moieties have enabled control over the gel properties.

Attempted re-establishment of a sooty tern Onychoprion fuscatus breeding colony on Denis Island, Seychelles

Seychelles supports around three million nesting pairs of sooty terns. However, there have been recent declines and the colonies continue to face ongoing threats from habitat change and excessive commercial harvesting of their eggs, as well as potential threats by commercial fishing and climate change. A possible method to counter these threats is to re-establish breeding colonies on islands from which they have disappeared. An attempt was made to attract birds to a previously occupied island through habitat management, decoy birds and playback of recorded sooty tern calls. Habitat preparation involved predator eradication and tree removal to provide open ground with bare sandy areas and low herb vegetation. Overflying birds were attracted by broadcast calls, with some circling over and landing among the decoys. Large three-dimensional plastic models were superior to other models presented. This study demonstrated that large numbers of birds can be attracted by these means and that the birds then undertook behaviour associated with breeding, including egg laying by a few birds. However, after five seasons a breeding colony has not yet been established; one possible cause is the emergence of unexpected egg predators, common moorhen Gallinula chloropus and common myna Acridotheres tristis.