957 resultados para J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
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This pilot study aimed to identify the effects of a 6-month, multimodal exercise program on clinical and gait parameters in patients with Parkinson's disease. Two groups of participants were enrolled in the study: Trained Group (TG) and Control Group (CG). Individuals in the TG exercised three times a week for 24 weeks (in a multimodal exercise program), while the CG participants maintained their regular activity level. Participants in both the TG and the CG were assessed at pre- and posttest by clinical rates and the spatiotemporal parameters of self-paced walking. The two groups were not significantly different in demographic, clinical, and gait data at baseline. There were no significant differences between groups for clinical data at posttest. The purposed multimodal exercise program has found improvement in some kinematic gait parameters for the TG. Further study in the form of randomized controlled trial would be required to establish effectiveness of the intervention.
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The prevalence of anxiety and depression disorders in undergraduate students is high and several variables can be influential. The aim is to verify the predictive value of social skills, sociodemographic variables, and course characteristics for depression and anxiety. A total of 1282 students of a public university, of both sexes and from different years and courses, participated in this study. Screening instruments for depression and anxiety were applied, as well as an instrument investigating social skills and a questionnaire covering socio demographic indicators and course characteristics. The data were analyzed using univariate analysis followed by multiple binary regression analysis in order to define the relevance of these depression and anxiety measures. The rates of anxiety and depression were 19.4% and 3.8%, respectively. The social skills and living situation were predictive of depression, with the social skills and course area (with higher prevalence for the exact and human sciences) remaining in the final model for anxiety. Such data have implications for psychological prevention and intervention with this population.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.
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We estimated demographic parameters and harvest risks for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) inhabiting the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut, from 1976 to 2000. We computed survival and abundance from capture–recapture and recovery data (630 marks) using a Burnham joint live–dead model implemented in program MARK. Annual mean total survival (including harvest) was 0.889 ± 0.179 ( x ± 1 SE) for cubs, 0.883 ± 0.087 for subadults (ages 1–4), 0.919 ± 0.044 for adult females, and 0.917 ± 0.041 for adult males. Abundance in the last 3 yr of study was 1,592 ± 361 bears. Mean size of newborn litters was 1.648 ± 0.098 cubs. By age 7, 0.97 ± 0.30 of available females were producing litters. Harvest averaged 38.4 ± 4.2 bears/year in the last 5 yr of study; however, the 2002–2007 kill averaged 56.4 bears/yr. We used a harvested Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to examine impacts of increasing rates of harvest. We estimated the current population growth rate, λH, to be 1.025 ± 0.032. Although this suggests the population is growing, progressive environmental changes may require more frequent population inventory studies to maintain the same levels of harvest risk.
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Child sexual abuse continues to be a prevalent and complex problem in today’s society as it poses serious and pervasive mental health risks to child victims and their non-offending parents. The main objectives of this study were (a) to elucidate the psychological symptoms and support needs of parents of child sexual abuse victims as they present to group treatment, (b) to examine changes in psychological symptoms and support needs and their relationship with child functioning over the course of a parallel group treatment, and (c) to examine the impact of these factors on completion of group treatment. Participants included 104 sexually abused youth and their non-offending parent presenting to Project SAFE Group Intervention, a 12-session cognitive-behavioral group treatment for sexually abused children and their non-offending parents. This project had a unique advantage of utilizing a variety of demographic, parent-, and child-report measures, allowing for a more comprehensive examination of change in symptomatology and needs over the course of treatment. Several significant findings were noted, including the identification of four clusters of youth at pre-treatment, which were maintained at post-treatment; elevations on the CTQ Sexual Abuse scale; parents of youth sexually abused by a non-family member had significantly higher PSI-Restriction of Role subscale scores; parental expectations of a negative impact on their child were worse for older children; several parent characteristics predicted client treatment retention (e.g., older parents, lower SCL-90-R GSI scores); and an early age of onset of abuse also increased treatment retention. Future directions, recommendations, and limitations were discussed.
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We developed and characterized 15 microsatellite markers for Rafinesque’s big-eared bat, Corynorhinus rafinesquii. In a population from Tennessee, the number of alleles per locus ranged from three to 13 and observed heterozygosities were 0.35 to 0.97 per locus. These loci will provide appropriate variability for estimation of population connectivity, demographic parameters, and genetic diversity for this species of concern.
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Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.
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Objective To investigate risk factors associated with the acquisition of antibodies against Plasmodium vivax Duffy binding protein (PvDBP) a leading malaria vaccine candidate in a well-consolidated agricultural settlement of the Brazilian Amazon Region and to determine the sequence diversity of the PvDBP ligand domain (DBPII) within the local malaria parasite population. Methods Demographic, epidemiological and clinical data were collected from 541 volunteers using a structured questionnaire. Malaria parasites were detected by conventional microscopy and PCR, and blood collection was used for antibody assays and molecular characterisation of DBPII. Results The frequency of malaria infection was 7% (6% for P. vivax and 1% for P. falciparum), with malaria cases clustered near mosquito breeding sites. Nearly 50% of settlers had anti-PvDBP IgG antibodies, as detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with subjects age being the only strong predictor of seropositivity to PvDBP. Unexpectedly, low levels of DBPII diversity were found within the local malaria parasites, suggesting the existence of low gene flow between P. vivax populations, probably due to the relative isolation of the studied settlement. Conclusion The recognition of PvDBP by a significant proportion of the community, associated with low levels of DBPII diversity among local P. vivax, reinforces the variety of malaria transmission patterns in communities from frontier settlements. Such studies should provide baseline information for antimalarial vaccines now in development.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of asthma and risk factors associated in children and adolescents. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional study with 1,185 female and male children and adolescents carried out in the city of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from 2008 to 2009. Data were collected through home interviews. Respondents were selected from two-stage (census tract, household) cluster random sampling stratified by gender and age. Multiple Poisson regression was used in the adjusted analysis between the outcome and socioeconomic, demographic, lifestyle and health condition variables. RESULTS: Of all respondents, 9.1% (95%CI 7.0; 11.7) reported asthma. After adjustment, the following variables were found independently associated with asthma: age (0 to 4 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 3.18, 95%CI 1.20;8.42); age (5 to 9 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 6.37, 95%CI 2.64;15.39); age (10 to 14 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 4.51,95%CI 1.95;10.40); allergy (yes vs. no) (PR 2.22, 95%CI 1.24;4.00); rhinitis (yes vs. no) (PR 2.13, 95%CI 1.22;3.73); health conditions in the 15 days preceding the interview (yes vs. no) (PR 1.96, 95%CI 1.23;3.11); number of rooms in the household (1 to 3 vs. 4 and more) (PR 1.67, 95%CI 1.05;2.66); and skin color (black and mixed vs. white) (PR 2.00, 95%CI 1.14;3.49). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the importance of factors associated with asthma including rhinitis and allergy; age between 5 to 9 years old; black and mixed skin color; and household with few rooms. Frequent health problems are seen as a common consequence of asthma.
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Although low- and middle-income countries still bear the burden of major infectious diseases, chronic noncommunicable diseases are becoming increasingly common due to rapid demographic, epidemiologic, and nutritional transitions. However, information is generally scant in these countries regarding chronic disease incidence, social determinants, and risk factors. The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) aims to contribute relevant information with respect to the development and progression of clinical and subclinical chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. In this report, the authors delineate the study's objectives, principal methodological features, and timeline. At baseline, ELSA-Brasil enrolled 15,105 civil servants from 5 universities and 1 research institute. The baseline examination (2008-2010) included detailed interviews, clinical and anthropometric examinations, an oral glucose tolerance test, overnight urine collection, a 12-lead resting electrocardiogram, measurement of carotid intima-media thickness, echocardiography, measurement of pulse wave velocity, hepatic ultrasonography, retinal fundus photography, and an analysis of heart rate variability. Long-term biologic sample storage will allow investigation of biomarkers that may predict cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Annual telephone surveillance, initiated in 2009, will continue for the duration of the study. A follow-up examination is scheduled for 2012-2013.
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BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of depression and anxiety disorders in hospitalized patients at the dermatology ward at a university hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of mood and anxiety disorders in hospitalized patients at the dermatology ward at a university hospital in Sao Paulo. METHOD: A total of 75 patients, men and women, aged between 18 and 76 years, took part in the research. The study employed a descriptive, cross sectional and correlational method. The data was collected by means of a social demographic questionnaire and the PRIME-MD. RESULTS: It was found that 45.3 percent of the subjects presented with depressive symptoms, and 52 percent presented with symptoms of anxiety and that this survey showed moderate and high significant correlations (p<0,01; r= 0,616) for depression and anxiety. CONCLUSION: These facts could evidence the relationship between physical and psyche, just as the literature presents.
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In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect that environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic factors have on dengue mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean. To that end, we conducted an observational ecological study, analyzing data collected between 1995 and 2009. Dengue mortality rates were highest in the Caribbean (Spanish-speaking and non-Spanish-speaking). Multivariate analysis through Poisson regression revealed that the following factors were independently associated with dengue mortality: time since identification of endemicity (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 3.2 [for each 10 years]); annual rainfall (aRR = 1.5 [for each 10(3) L/m(2)]); population density (aRR = 2.1 and 3.2 for 20-120 inhabitants/km(2) and > 120 inhabitants/km(2), respectively); Human Development Index > 0.83 (aRR = 0.4); and circulation of the dengue 2 serotype (aRR = 1.7). These results highlight the important role that environmental, demographic, socioeconomic, and biological factors have played in increasing the severity of dengue in recent decades.
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Although there are a large number of studies focused on binge drinking and traffic risk behaviors (TRB), little is known regarding low levels of alcohol consumption and its association to TRB. The aim of this cross-sectional study is to examine the association of low to moderate alcohol intake pattern and TRB in college students in Brazil. 7037 students from a National representative sample were selected under rigorous inclusion criteria. All study participants voluntarily fulfilled a structured, anonymous, and self-questionnaire regarding alcohol and drug use, social-demographic data, and TRB. Alcohol was assessed according to the average number of alcoholic units consumed on standard occasions over the past 12 months. The associations between alcohol intake and TRB were summarized with odds ratio and their confidence interval obtained from logistic regression. Compared with abstainers students who consumed only one alcohol unit had the risk of being a passenger in a car driven by a drunk driver increased by almost four times, students who reported using five or more units were increased by almost five times the risk of being involved in a car crash. Compared with students who consumed one alcohol unit, the risk of driving under the influence of alcohol increased four times in students using three alcohol units. Age group, use of illicit drugs, employment status, gender, and marital status significantly influenced occurrence of TRB among college students. Our study highlights the potential detrimental effects of low and moderate pattern of alcohol consumption and its relation to riding with an intoxicated driver and other TRB. These data suggest that targeted interventions should be implemented in order to prevent negative consequences due to alcohol use in this population. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved,
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The historical and cultural characteristics reflect the Brazilian population. Elderly blacks are disadvantaged in socio-economic and demographic, clinical, functional and psychosocial aspects, reducing their social autonomy and functional independence. The decline in functional status due to variables associated with age and ethnicity can contribute to disabling events, such as falls. Socio-demographic, clinical and functional aspects related to falls were analyzed; Mobility, functional status and cognition were measured, with a statistical significance of pd '' 0.05. The sample of 196 elderly people was 48.5% white, 28% brown, 23.5% black, with an average of 69.9 years. There was reduced mobility classified as a medium risk for falls in 60% (p<0.013) among the elderly. With reference to groups analyzed, there were significant differences between variables for family income (p < 0.029), the occurrence of falls (p < 0.006), fear of falls (p < 0.023) and near-falls (p < 0.000). Blacks fall more often (p < 0.03). Statistical significance was revealed between ethnicity and self-reported occurrence of falls, fear of falling and the occurrence of near-falls, functional limitation and medium risk falls due to reduced mobility, with increased frequency of falls for elderly blacks.