Bayesian estimation of recent migration rates after a spatial expansion

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a highly flexible technique that allows the estimation of parameters under demographic models that are too complex to be handled by full-likelihood methods. We assess the utility of this method to estimate the parameters of range expansion in a two-dimensional stepping-stone model, using samples from either a single deme or multiple demes. A minor modification to the ABC procedure is introduced, which leads to an improvement in the accuracy of estimation. The method is then used to estimate the expansion time and migration rates for five natural common vole populations in Switzerland typed for a sex-linked marker and a nuclear marker. Estimates based on both markers suggest that expansion occurred < 10,000 years ago, after the most recent glaciation, and that migration rates are strongly male biased.

On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects

A key unresolved question in population ecology concerns the relationship between a population's size and its growth rate. We estimated this relationship for 1780 time series of mammals, birds, fish, and insects. We found that rates of population growth are high at low population densities but, contrary to previous predictions, decline rapidly with increasing population size and then flatten out, for all four taxa. This produces a strongly concave relationship between a population's growth rate and its size. These findings have fundamental implications for our understanding of animals' lives, suggesting in particular that many animals in these taxa will be found living at densities above the carrying capacity of their environments.

Identifying adaptive genetic divergence among populations from genome scans

The identification of signatures of natural selection in genomic surveys has become an area of intense research, stimulated by the increasing ease with which genetic markers can be typed. Loci identified as subject to selection may be functionally important, and hence (weak) candidates for involvement in disease causation. They can also be useful in determining the adaptive differentiation of populations, and exploring hypotheses about speciation. Adaptive differentiation has traditionally been identified from differences in allele frequencies among different populations, summarised by an estimate of F-ST. Low outliers relative to an appropriate neutral population-genetics model indicate loci subject to balancing selection, whereas high outliers suggest adaptive (directional) selection. However, the problem of identifying statistically significant departures from neutrality is complicated by confounding effects on the distribution of F-ST estimates, and current methods have not yet been tested in large-scale simulation experiments. Here, we simulate data from a structured population at many unlinked, diallelic loci that are predominantly neutral but with some loci subject to adaptive or balancing selection. We develop a hierarchical-Bayesian method, implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and assess its performance in distinguishing the loci simulated under selection from the neutral loci. We also compare this performance with that of a frequentist method, based on moment-based estimates of F-ST. We find that both methods can identify loci subject to adaptive selection when the selection coefficient is at least five times the migration rate. Neither method could reliably distinguish loci under balancing selection in our simulations, even when the selection coefficient is twenty times the migration rate.

Conserving marginal populations of the foodplant (Impatiens noli-tangere) of an endangered moth (Eustroma reticulatum) in a changing climate

Impatiens noli-tangere is scarce in the UK and probably only native to the Lake District and Wales. It is the sole food plant for the endangered moth Eustroma reticulattum. Significant annual fluctuations in the size of I. noli-tangere populations endanger the continued presence of E. reticulatum in the UK. In this study, variation in population size was monitored across native populations of L noli-tangere in the English Lake District and Wales. In 1998, there was a crash in the population size of all metapopulations in the Lake District but not of those found in Wales. A molecular survey of the genetic affinities of samples in 1999 from both regions and a reference population from Switzerland was performed using AFLP and ISSR analyses. The consensus UPGMA dendrogram and a PCO scatter plot revealed clear differentiation between the populations of L noli-tangere in Wales and those in the Lake District. Most of the genetic variation in the UK (H-T= 0.064) was partitioned between (G(ST) = 0.455) rather than within (H-S = 0.034) regions, inferring little gene flow occurs between regions. There was similar bias towards differentiation between metapopulations in Wales, again consistent with low levels of interpopulation gene flow. This contrasts with far lower levels of differentiation in the Lake District which suggests modest rates of gene flow may occur between populations. It is concluded that in the event of local extinction of sites or populations, reintroductions should be restricted to samples collected from the same region. We then surveyed climatic variables to identify those most likely to cause local extinctions. Climatic correlates of population size were sought from two Lake District metapopulations situated close to a meteorological station. A combination of three climatic variables common to both sites explained 81-84% of the variation in plant number between 1990 and 2001. Projected trends for these climatic variables were used in a Monte Carlo simulation which suggested an increased risk of I. noli-tangere population crashes by 2050 at Coniston Water. but not at Derwentwater. Implications of these findings for practical conservation strategies are explored. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of survival rates of captive-reared and wild-bred Mauritius kestrels (falco punctatus) in a re-introduced population

Re-introduction is a technique widely used in the conservation of threatened bird species. With advances in aviculture the use of captive-produced individuals as the release stock is becoming more commonplace, and ideally, survival of captive-produced, released individuals should be no different from their wild-bred counterparts. During the late 1980s the Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) was successfully re-introduced into the Bambous mountain range, Mauritius, some 30 years after its local extinction. Between 1987 and 2001 the developing population was closely monitored enabling us to construct re-sighting histories for 88 released and 284 wild-bred kestrels. We used age-structured models in the survival analysis software program MARK to determine if an individual's origin influenced its subsequent survival. Our analysis indicated no compelling evidence for reduced survival among juvenile captive-reared and released individuals, relative to their wild-bred counterparts, across the majority of cohorts and only limited evidence of a cohort-specific effect. This study illustrates that despite the lack of a formal experimental approach it is still feasible to conduct an assessment of re-introduction outcomes and techniques. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and coastal waterbird populations - past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.

Estimation of population growth or decline in genetically monitored populations

This article introduces a new general method for genealogical inference that samples independent genealogical histories using importance sampling (IS) and then samples other parameters with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It is then possible to more easily utilize the advantages of importance sampling in a fully Bayesian framework. The method is applied to the problem of estimating recent changes in effective population size from temporally spaced gene frequency data. The method gives the posterior distribution of effective population size at the time of the oldest sample and at the time of the most recent sample, assuming a model of exponential growth or decline during the interval. The effect of changes in number of alleles, number of loci, and sample size on the accuracy of the method is described using test simulations, and it is concluded that these have an approximately equivalent effect. The method is used on three example data sets and problems in interpreting the posterior densities are highlighted and discussed.

Analysis of the sulfate-reducing bacterial and methanogenic archaeal populations in contrasting Antarctic sediments

The distribution and activity of communities of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and methanogenic archaea in two contrasting Antarctic sediments were investigated. Methanogenesis dominated in freshwater Lake Heywood, while sulfate reduction dominated in marine Shallow Bay. Slurry experiments indicated that 90% of the methanogenesis in Lake Heywood was acetoclastic. This finding was supported by the limited diversity of clones detected in a Lake Heywood archaeal clone library, in which most clones were closely related to the obligate acetate-utilizing Methanosaeta concilii. The Shallow Bay archaeal clone library contained clones related to the C-1-utilizing Methanolobus and Methanococcoides and the H-2-utilizing Methanogenium. Oligonucleotide probing of RNA extracted directly from sediment indicated that archaea represented 34% of the total prokaryotic signal in Lake Heywood and that Methanosaeta was a major component (13.2%) of this signal. Archaea represented only 0.2% of the total prokaryotic signal in RNA extracted from Shallow Bay sediments. In the Shallow Bay bacterial clone library, 10.3% of the clones were SRB-like, related to Desulfotalea/Desulforhopalus, Desulfofaba, Desulfosarcina, and Desulfobacter as well as to the sulfur and metal oxidizers comprising the Desulfuromonas cluster. Oligonucleotide probes for specific SRB clusters indicated that SRB represented 14.7% of the total prokaryotic signal, with Desulfotalea/Desulforhopalus being the dominant SRB group (10.7% of the total prokaryotic signal) in the Shallow Bay sediments; these results support previous results obtained for Arctic sediments. Methanosaeta and Desulfotalea/Desulforhopalus appear to be important in Lake Heywood and Shallow Bay, respectively, and may be globally important in permanently low-temperature sediments.

Development of a fermentation system to model sessile bacterial populations in the human colon

A fermentation system was designed to model the human colonic microflora in vitro. The system provided a framework of mucin beads to encourage the adhesion of bacteria, which was encased within a dialysis membrane. The void between the beads was inoculated with faeces from human donors. Water and metabolites were removed from the fermentation by osmosis using a solution of polyethylene glycol (PEG). The system was concomitantly inoculated alongside a conventional single-stage chemostat. Three fermentations were carried out using inocula from three healthy human donors. Bacterial populations from the chemostat and biofilm system were enumerated using fluorescence in situ hybridization. The culture fluid was also analysed for its short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) content. A higher cell density was achieved in the biofilm fermentation system (taking into account the contribution made by the bead-associated bacteria) as compared with the chemostat, owing to the removal of water and metabolites. Evaluation of the bacterial populations revealed that the biofilm system was able to support two distinct groups of bacteria: bacteria growing in association with the mucin beads and planktonic bacteria in the culture fluid. Furthermore, distinct differences were observed between populations in the biofilm fermenter system and the chemostat, with the former supporting higher populations of clostridia and Escherichia coli. SCFA levels were lower in the biofilm system than in the chemostat, as in the former they were removed via the osmotic effect of the PEG. These experiments demonstrated the potential usefulness of the biofilm system for investigating the complexity of the human colonic microflora and the contribution made by sessile bacterial populations.

Influence of environmental stress on distributions of times to first division in Escherichia coli populations, as determined by digital-image analysis of individual cells

The distributions of times to first cell division were determined for populations of Escherichia coli stationary-phase cells inoculated onto agar media. This was accomplished by using automated analysis of digital images of individual cells growing on agar and calculation of the "box area ratio." Using approximately 300 cells per experiment, the mean time to first division and standard deviation for cells grown in liquid medium at 37 degrees C and inoculated on agar and incubated at 20 degrees C were determined as 3.0 h and 0.7 h, respectively. Distributions were observed to tail toward the higher values, but no definitive model distribution was identified. Both preinoculation stress by heating cultures at 50 degrees C and postinoculation stress by growth in the presence of higher concentrations of NaCl increased mean times to first division. Both stresses also resulted in an increase in the spread of the distributions that was proportional to the mean division time, the coefficient of variation being constant at approximately 0.2 in all cases. The "relative division time," which is the time to first division for individual cells expressed in terms of the cell size doubling time, was used as measure of the "work to be done" to prepare for cell division. Relative division times were greater for heat-stressed cells than for those growing under osmotic stress.

Modeling the variability of single-cell lag times for Listeria innocua populations after sublethal and lethal heat treatments

Optical density measurements were used to estimate the effect of heat treatments on the single-cell lag times of Listeria innocua fitted to a shifted gamma distribution. The single-cell lag time was subdivided into repair time ( the shift of the distribution assumed to be uniform for all cells) and adjustment time (varying randomly from cell to cell). After heat treatments in which all of the cells recovered (sublethal), the repair time and the mean and the variance of the single-cell adjustment time increased with the severity of the treatment. When the heat treatments resulted in a loss of viability (lethal), the repair time of the survivors increased with the decimal reduction of the cell numbers independently of the temperature, while the mean and variance of the single-cell adjustment times remained the same irrespective of the heat treatment. Based on these observations and modeling of the effect of time and temperature of the heat treatment, we propose that the severity of a heat treatment can be characterized by the repair time of the cells whether the heat treatment is lethal or not, an extension of the F value concept for sublethal heat treatments. In addition, the repair time could be interpreted as the extent or degree of injury with a multiple-hit lethality model. Another implication of these results is that the distribution of the time for cells to reach unacceptable numbers in food is not affected by the time-temperature combination resulting in a given decimal reduction.

Are definitions of adiposity appropriate for identification of cardiovascular disease risk in South Asian populations?

South Asian populations living in the UK have a high prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes which impacts greatly on the morbidity and mortality of this ethnic group. The identification of ‘at risk’ individuals is essential to initiate reventative treatment. However, this is considerably hindered by the lack of appropriate cut-off values for anthropometric measures. CVD risk is significantly higher at a lower body mass index (BMI) in many Asian groups compared with Caucasians and adiposity (particularly central deposition) is higher at similar BMI levels. The definition of adiposity in Asians needs to be firmly established and appropriate lower BMI and waist circumference cut-offs implemented in ethnic subpopulations to facilitate appropriate treatment strategies.

What do we mean when we refer to Bacteroidetes populations in the human gastrointestinal microbiota?

Recent large-scale cloning studies have shown that the ratio of Bacteroidetes to Firmicutes may be important in the obesity-associated gut microbiota, but the species these phyla represent in this ecosystem has not been examined. The Bacteroidetes data from the recent Turnbaugh study were examined to determine those members of the phylum detected in human faecal samples. In addition, FISH analysis was performed on faecal samples from 17 healthy, nonobese donors using probe Bac303, routinely used by gut microbiologists to enumerate BacteroidesPrevotella populations in faecal samples, and another probe (CFB286) whose target range has some overlap with that of Bac303. Sequence analysis of the Turnbaugh data showed that 23/519 clones were chimeras or erroneous sequences; all good sequences were related to species of the order Bacteroidales, but no one species was present in all donors. FISH analysis demonstrated that approximately one-quarter of the healthy, nonobese donors harboured high numbers of Bacteroidales not detected by probe Bac303. It is clear that Bacteroidales populations in human faecal samples have been underestimated in FISH-based studies. New probes and complementary primer sets should be designed to examine numerical and compositional changes in the Bacteroidales during dietary interventions and in studies of the obesity-associated microbiota in humans and animal model systems.

The use of gaseous ozone and gas packaging to control populations of Salmonella infantis and Pseudomonas aeruginosa on the skin of chicken portions

Chilled breasts of chicken were inoculated with Salmonella infantis or Pseudomonas aeruginosa and then given one of the following treatments: (i) exposure to gaseous ozone (>2000 ppm for up to 30 min); (ii) storage under 70% CO2:30% N-2; and (iii) exposure to gaseous ozone (>2000 ppm for 15 min) followed by storage under 70% CO2:30% N-2; all storage at 7degreesC. Gaseous ozone reduced the counts of samnonellae by 97(Y,, and pseudomonads by 95%, but indigenous coliforms were unaffected. Under the modified atmosphere, the cell count of S. infantis was reduced by 72% following initial exposure and then stabilised, coliforms grew, but Ps. aeruginosa behaved like S. infantis-initial reduction (58%) followed by stability. Exposure to gaseous ozone followed by gas packaging allowed survival of S. infantis, Ps. aeruginosa and coliforms over 9 days at 7degreesC, but there was no evidence of any sensory deterioration. It is proposed that the latter treatment could, in a modified form perhaps, be used to reduce the contamination of chicken carcasses with salmonellae and improve their shelf-life. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.