Introducing the practice of statistics: are we environmentally friendly?

The practice of statistics is the focus of the world in which professional statisticians live. To understand meaningfully what this practice is about, students need to engage in it themselves. Acknowledging the limitations of a genuine classroom setting, this study attempted to expose four classes of year 5 students (n=91) to an authentic experience of the practice of statistics. Setting an overall context of people’s habits that are considered environmentally friendly, the students sampled their class and set criteria for being environmentally friendly based on questions from the Australian Bureau of Statistics CensusAtSchool site. They then analysed the data and made decisions, acknowledging their degree of certainty, about three populations based on their criteria: their class, year 5 students in their school and year 5 students in Australia. The next step was to collect a random sample the size of their class from an Australian Bureau of Statistics ‘population’, analyse it and again make a decision about Australian year 5 students. At the end, they suggested what further research they might do. The analysis of students’ responses gives insight into primary students’ capacity to appreciate and understand decision making, and to participate in the practice of statistics, a topic that has received very little attention in the literature. Based on the total possible score of 23 from student workbook entries, 80 % of students achieved at least a score of 11.

Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Time-dependent instantaneous mortality rates from multiple tagging experiments with exact times of release and recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).

Quality of handling and holding yard environment, and beef cattle temperament: 1. Relationships with flight speed and fear of humans.

Numerous tests have been used to measure beef cattle temperament, but limited research has addressed the relationship between such tests and whether temperament can be modified. One-hundred-and-forty-four steers were given one of three human handling and yarding experiences on six occasions during a 12-month grazing period post-weaning (backgrounding): Good handling/yarding, Poor handling/yarding and Minimal handling/yarding. At the end of this phase the cattle were lot-fed for 78 days, with no handling/yarding treatments imposed, before being transported for commercial slaughter. Temperament was assessed at the start of the experiment, during backgrounding and lot-feeding by flight speed (FS) and a fear of humans test, which measured the proximity to a stimulus person (zone average; ZA), the closest approach to the person (CA) and the amount the cattle moved around the test arena (total transitions; TT). During backgrounding, FS decreased for all treatments and at the end of backgrounding there was no difference between them. The rate of decline, however, was greatest in the Good group, smallest in the Minimal group with the Poor intermediate. In contrast, ZA was affected by treatment, with a greater reduction for the Good group than the others (P = 0.012). During lot-feeding, treatment did not affect FS, but all groups showed a decrease in ZA, with the greatest change in the Poor group, the least in the Good and the Minimal intermediate (P = 0.052). CA was positively correlated with ZA (r = 0.18 to 0.66) and negatively with TT (r = -0.180 to -0.659). FS was consistently correlated with TT only (r = 0.17 to 0.49). These findings suggest that FS and TT measure a similar characteristic, as do ZA and CA, but that these characteristics are different from one another, indicating that temperament is not a unitary trait, but has different facets. FS and TT measure one facet that we suggest is general agitation, whilst ZA and CA measure fear of people. Thus, the cattle became less agitated during backgrounding, but the effect was not permanently influenced by the quantity and quality of handling/yarding. However, Good handling/yarding reduced fearfulness of people. Fear of people was also reduced during lot-feeding, probably as a consequence of frequent exposure to humans in a situation that was neutral or positive for the cattle.

Mathematical models on the impact of noise and dyadic molecular structures on the properties of a cardiac myocyte

In cardiac myocytes (heart muscle cells), coupling of electric signal known as the action potential to contraction of the heart depends crucially on calcium-induced calcium release (CICR) in a microdomain known as the dyad. During CICR, the peak number of free calcium ions (Ca) present in the dyad is small, typically estimated to be within range 1-100. Since the free Ca ions mediate CICR, noise in Ca signaling due to the small number of free calcium ions influences Excitation-Contraction (EC) coupling gain. Noise in Ca signaling is only one noise type influencing cardiac myocytes, e.g., ion channels playing a central role in action potential propagation are stochastic machines, each of which gates more or less randomly, which produces gating noise present in membrane currents. How various noise sources influence macroscopic properties of a myocyte, how noise is attenuated and taken advantage of are largely open questions. In this thesis, the impact of noise on CICR, EC coupling and, more generally, macroscopic properties of a cardiac myocyte is investigated at multiple levels of detail using mathematical models. Complementarily to the investigation of the impact of noise on CICR, computationally-efficient yet spatially-detailed models of CICR are developed. The results of this thesis show that (1) gating noise due to the high-activity mode of L-type calcium channels playing a major role in CICR may induce early after-depolarizations associated with polymorphic tachycardia, which is a frequent precursor to sudden cardiac death in heart failure patients; (2) an increased level of voltage noise typically increases action potential duration and it skews distribution of action potential durations toward long durations in cardiac myocytes; and that (3) while a small number of Ca ions mediate CICR, Excitation-Contraction coupling is robust against this noise source, partly due to the shape of ryanodine receptor protein structures present in the cardiac dyad.

Gust Response of Rotor and Propeller Systems

The influence of nonstationary turbulence on rotor and propeller systems is discussed. The review is made from a common analytical basis of nonstationary approach, with emphasis on concepts rather than on details. The necessity of such an approach and its feasibility for predicting a complete set of gust and response statistics together with correlations with somewhat limited test data are appraised.

Ballistic Trauma in Finland : An Epidemiologic and Clinical Study of Firearm and Explosion Injuries

The occurrence and nature of civilian firearm- and explosion-injuries in Finland, and the nature of severe gunshot injuries of the extremities were described in seven original articles. The main data sources used were the National Hospital Discharge Register, the Cause-of-Death Register, and the Archive of Death Certificates at Statistics Finland. The present study was population based. Epidemiologic methods were used in six and clinical analyses in five papers. In these clinical studies, every original hospital record and death certificate was critically analyzed. The trend of hospitalized firearm injuries has slightly declined in Finland from the late 1980s to the early 2000s. The occurrence decreased from 5.1 per 100 000 person-years in 1990 to 2.6 in 2003. The decline was found in the unintentional firearm injuries. A high incidence of unintentional injuries by firearms was characteristic of the country, while violence and homicides by firearms represented a minor problem. The incidence of fatal non-suicidal firearm injuries has been stable, 1.8 cases per 100 000 person-years. Suicides using firearms were eight times more common during the period studied. This is contrary to corresponding reports from many other countries. However, the use of alcohol and illegal drugs or substances was detected in as many as one-third of the injuries studied. The median length of hospitalization was three days and it was significantly associated (p<0.001) with the type of injury. The mean length of hospital stay has decreased from the 1980s to the early 2000s. In this study, there was a special interest in gunshot injuries of the extremities. From a clinical point of view, the nature of severe extremital gunshot wounds, as well as the primary operative approach in their management, varied. The patients with severe injuries of this kind were managed at university and central hospital emergency departments, by general surgeons in smaller hospitals and by cardiothoracic or vascular surgeons in larger hospitals. Injuries were rarities and as such challenges for surgeons on call. Some noteworthy aspects of the management were noticed and these should be focused on in the future. On the other hand, the small population density and the relatively large geographic area of Finland do not favor high volume, centralized trauma management systems. However, experimental war surgery has been increasingly taught in the country from the 1990s, and excellent results could be expected during the present decade. Epidemiologically, explosion injuries can be considered a minor problem in Finland at present, but their significance should not be underestimated. Fatal explosion injuries showed up sporadically. An increase occurred from 2002 to 2004 for no obvius reason. However, in view of the historical facts, a possibility for another rare major explosion involving several people might become likely within the next decade. The national control system of firearms is mainly based on the new legislations from 1998 and 2002. However, as shown in this study, there is no reason to assume that the national hospitalization policies, or the political climate, or the legislation might have changed over the study period and influenced the declining development, at least not directly. Indeed, the reason for the decline to appear in the incidence of unintentional injuries only remains unclear. It may derive from many practical steps, e.g. locked firearm cases, or from the stability of the community itself. For effective reduction of firearm-related injuries, preventive measures, such as education and counseling, should be targeted at recreational firearm users. To sum up, this study showed that the often reported increasing trend in firearm as well as explosion-related injuries has not manifested in Finland. Consequently, it can be recognized that, overall, the Finnish legislation together with the various strategies have succeeded in preventing firearm- and explosion-related injuries in the country.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Essays on Stock Option Compensation and the Role of Incentives and Risk (summary section only)

Managerial pay-for-performance sensitivity has increased rapidly around the world. Early empirical research showed that pay-for-performance sensitivity resulting from stock ownership and stock options appeared to be quite low during the 1970s and early 1980s in the U.S. However, recent empirical research from the U.S. shows an enormous increase in pay-for-performance sensitivity. The global trend has also reached Finland, where stock options have become a major ingredient of executive compensation. The fact that stock options seem to be an appealing form of remuneration from a theoretical point of view combined with the observation that the use of this compensation form has increased significantly during the recent years, implies that research on the dynamics of stock option compensation is highly relevant for the academic community, as well as for practitioners and regulators. The research questions of the thesis are analyzed in four separate essays. The first essay examines whether stock option compensation practices of Finnish firms are consistent with predictions from principal-agent theory. The second essay explores one of the major puzzles in the compensation literature by studying determinants of stock option contract design. In theory, optimal contract design should vary according to firm characteristics. However, in the U.S., variation in contract design seems to be surprisingly low, a phenomenon generally attributed to tax and accounting considerations. In Finland, however, firms are not subject to stringent contracting restrictions, and the variation in contract design tends, in fact, to be quite substantial. The third essay studies the impact of price- and risk incentives arising from stock option compensation on firm investment. In addition, the essay explores one of the most debated questions in the literature, in particular, the relation between incentives and firm performance. Finally, several strands of literature in both economics and corporate finance hypothesize that economic uncertainty is related to corporate decision-making. Previous research has shown that risk tends to slow down firm investment. In the fourth essay, it is hypothesized that firm risk slows down growth from a more universal perspective. Consistent with this view, it is shown that risk not only tends to slow down firm investment, but also employment growth. Moreover, the essay explores whether the nature of firms’ compensation policies, in particular, whether firms make use of stock option compensation, affects the relation between risk and firm growth. In summary, the four essays contribute to the current understanding of stock options as a form of equity incentives, and how incentives and risk affect corporate decision-making. By this, the thesis promotes the knowledge related to the modern theory of the firm.

The expiration day effect of indexoptions and index futures on the underlying shares

This paper studies the effect of the expiration day of index options and futures on the trading volume, variance and price of the underlying shares. The data consists of all trades for the underlying shares in the FOX-index for expiration days during the period October 1995 to the mid of yer 1999. The main results seem to support the findings of Kan 2001, i.e. no manipulation on a larger scale. However, some indication of manipulation could be found if certain characteristics are favorable. These characteristics include: a) a large quantity of outstanding futures or at/in the money options contracts, b) there exists shares with high index weight but fairly low trading volume. Lastly, there is some indication that manipulation might be more popular towards the end of the examined time period.

An Empirical Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Volatility Models for Nordic Stock Returns

This paper examines how volatility in financial markets can preferable be modeled. The examination investigates how good the models for the volatility, both linear and nonlinear, are in absorbing skewness and kurtosis. The examination is done on the Nordic stock markets, including Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Different linear and nonlinear models are applied, and the results indicates that a linear model can almost always be used for modeling the series under investigation, even though nonlinear models performs slightly better in some cases. These results indicate that the markets under study are exposed to asymmetric patterns only to a certain degree. Negative shocks generally have a more prominent effect on the markets, but these effects are not really strong. However, in terms of absorbing skewness and kurtosis, nonlinear models outperform linear ones.

An Empirical Study of the Mixture of Time and Movements in Prices

This paper investigates the persistent pattern in the Helsinki Exchanges. The persistent pattern is analyzed using a time and a price approach. It is hypothesized that arrival times are related to movements in prices. Thus, the arrival times are defined as durations and formulated as an Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model as in Engle and Russell (1998). The prices are defined as price changes and formulated as a GARCH process including duration measures. The research question follows from market microstructure predictions about price intensities defined as time between price changes. The microstructure theory states that long transaction durations might be associated with both no news and bad news. Accordingly, short durations would be related to high volatility and long durations to low volatility. As a result, the spread will tend to be larger under intensive moments. The main findings of this study are 1) arrival times are positively autocorrelated and 2) long durations are associated with low volatility in the market.

Analysts' Accuracy of Estimation and the Relative Trading Volume

This study contributes to the neglect effect literature by looking at the relative trading volume in terms of value. The results for the Swedish market show a significant positive relationship between the accuracy of estimation and the relative trading volume. Market capitalisation and analyst coverage have in prior studies been used as proxies for neglect. These measures however, do not take into account the effort analysts put in when estimating corporate pre-tax profits. I also find evidence that the industry of the firm influence the accuracy of estimation. In addition, supporting earlier findings, loss making firms are associated with larger forecasting errors. Further, I find that the average forecast error increased in the year 2000 – in Sweden.