Advanced Business Simulations-Incorporating business and process execution data

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and their predictions are widely used by the enterprises for informed decision making. Nevertheless , a very important factor, which is generally overlooked, is that the top level strategic KPIs are actually driven by the operational level business processes. These two domains are, however, mostly segregated and analysed in silos with different Business Intelligence solutions. In this paper, we are proposing an approach for advanced Business Simulations, which converges the two domains by utilising process execution & business data, and concepts from Business Dynamics (BD) and Business Ontologies, to promote better system understanding and detailed KPI predictions. Our approach incorporates the automated creation of Causal Loop Diagrams, thus empowering the analyst to critically examine the complex dependencies hidden in the massive amounts of available enterprise data. We have further evaluated our proposed approach in the context of a retail use-case that involved verification of the automatically generated causal models by a domain expert.

Automated Equation Formulation for Causal Loop Diagrams

The annotation of Business Dynamics models with parameters and equations, to simulate the system under study and further evaluate its simulation output, typically involves a lot of manual work. In this paper we present an approach for automated equation formulation of a given Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a set of associated time series with the help of neural network evolution (NEvo). NEvo enables the automated retrieval of surrogate equations for each quantity in the given CLD, hence it produces a fully annotated CLD that can be used for later simulations to predict future KPI development. In the end of the paper, we provide a detailed evaluation of NEvo on a business use-case to demonstrate its single step prediction capabilities.

A Loop-mediated Isothermal Amplification Method for Rapid Direct Detection and Differentiation of Non-pathogenic and Verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli in Beef and Bovine Faeces

The aim of this study was to develop a multiplex loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) method capable of detecting Escherichia coli generally and verocytotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) specifically in beef and bovine faeces. The LAMP assay developed was highly specific (100%) and able to distinguish between E. coli and VTEC based on the amplification of the phoA, and stx1 and/or stx2 genes, respectively. In the absence of an enrichment step, the limit of detection 50% (LOD50) of the LAMP assay was determined to be 2.83, 3.17 and 2.83-3.17 log CFU/g for E. coli with phoA, stx1 and stx2 genes, respectively, when artificially inoculated minced beef and bovine faeces were tested. The LAMP calibration curves generated with pure cultures, and spiked beef and faeces, suggested that the assay had good quantification capability. Validation of the assay, performed using retail beef and bovine faeces samples, demonstrated good correlation between counts obtained by the LAMP assay and by a conventional culture method, but suggested the possibility of false negative LAMP results for 12.5-14.7% of samples tested. The multiplex LAMP assay developed potentially represents a rapid alternative to culture for monitoring E.coli levels in beef or faeces and it would provide additional information on the presence of VTEC. However, some further optimisation is needed to improve detection sensitivity.

Simulations in 3D research : Can Unity3D be used to simulate a 3D display system?

Mid Sweden University is currently researching how to capture more of a scene with a camera and how to create 3D images that does not require extra equipment for the viewer. In the process of this research they have started looking into simulating some of the tests that they wish to conduct. The goal of this project is to research whether the 3D graphics engine Unity3D could be used to simulate these tests, and to what degree. To test this a simulation was designed and implemented. The simulation used a split display system where each camera is directly connected to a part of the screen and using the position of the viewer the correct part of the camera feed is shown. Some literary studies were also done into how current 3D technology works. The simulation was successfully implemented and shows that simple simulation can be done in Unity3D, however, some problems were encountered in the process. The conclusion of the project show that there is much work left before simulation is viable but that there is potential in the technology and that the research team should continue to investigate it.

Transient simulations for present and last interglacials using a comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3.0), links to model result files in NetCDF format

Transient simulations are widely used in studying the past climate as they provide better comparison with any exisiting proxy data. However, multi-millennial transient simulations using coupled climate models are usually computationally very expensive. As a result several acceleration techniques are implemented when using numerical simulations to recreate past climate. In this study, we compare the results from transient simulations of the present and the last interglacial with and without acceleration of the orbital forcing, using the comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3). Our study shows that in low-latitude regions, the simulation of long-term variations in interglacial surface climate is not significantly affected by the use of the acceleration technique (with an acceleration factor of 10) and hence, large-scale model-data comparison of surface variables is not hampered. However, in high-latitude regions where the surface climate has a direct connection to the deep ocean, e.g. in the Southern Ocean or the Nordic Seas, acceleration-induced biases in sea-surface temperature evolution may occur with potential influence on the dynamics of the overlying atmosphere. The data provided here are from both accelerated and non-accelerated runs as decadal mean values.

Finite volumes simulations in magnetohydrodynamics

Abstract not available

Computer simulations of soft particles in flow

Understanding the dynamics of blood cells is a crucial element to discover biological mechanisms, to develop new efficient drugs, design sophisticated microfluidic devices, for diagnostics. In this work, we focus on the dynamics of red blood cells in microvascular flow. Microvascular blood flow resistance has a strong impact on cardiovascular function and tissue perfusion. The flow resistance in microcirculation is governed by flow behavior of blood through a complex network of vessels, where the distribution of red blood cells across vessel cross-sections may be significantly distorted at vessel bifurcations and junctions. We investigate the development of blood flow and its resistance starting from a dispersed configuration of red blood cells in simulations for different hematocrits, flow rates, vessel diameters, and aggregation interactions between red blood cells. Initially dispersed red blood cells migrate toward the vessel center leading to the formation of a cell-free layer near the wall and to a decrease of the flow resistance. The development of cell-free layer appears to be nearly universal when scaled with a characteristic shear rate of the flow, which allows an estimation of the length of a vessel required for full flow development, $l_c \approx 25D$, with vessel diameter $D$. Thus, the potential effect of red blood cell dispersion at vessel bifurcations and junctions on the flow resistance may be significant in vessels which are shorter or comparable to the length $l_c$. The presence of aggregation interactions between red blood cells lead in general to a reduction of blood flow resistance. The development of the cell-free layer thickness looks similar for both cases with and without aggregation interactions. Although, attractive interactions result in a larger cell-free layer plateau values. However, because the aggregation forces are short-ranged at high enough shear rates ($\bar{\dot{\gamma}} \gtrsim 50~\text{s}^{-1}$) aggregation of red blood cells does not bring a significant change to the blood flow properties. Also, we develop a simple theoretical model which is able to describe the converged cell-free-layer thickness with respect to flow rate assuming steady-state flow. The model is based on the balance between a lift force on red blood cells due to cell-wall hydrodynamic interactions and shear-induced effective pressure due to cell-cell interactions in flow. We expect that these results can also be used to better understand the flow behavior of other suspensions of deformable particles such as vesicles, capsules, and cells. Finally, we investigate segregation phenomena in blood as a two-component suspension under Poiseuille flow, consisting of red blood cells and target cells. The spatial distribution of particles in blood flow is very important. For example, in case of nanoparticle drug delivery, the particles need to come closer to microvessel walls, in order to adhere and bring the drug to a target position within the microvasculature. Here we consider that segregation can be described as a competition between shear-induced diffusion and the lift force that pushes every soft particle in a flow away from the wall. In order to investigate the segregation, on one hand, we have 2D DPD simulations of red blood cells and target cell of different sizes, on the other hand the Fokker-Planck equation for steady state. For the equation we measure force profile, particle distribution and diffusion constant across the channel. We compare simulation results with those from the Fokker-Planck equation and find a very good correspondence between the two approaches. Moreover, we investigate the diffusion behavior of target particles for different hematocrit values and shear rates. Our simulation results indicate that diffusion constant increases with increasing hematocrit and depends linearly on shear rate. The third part of the study describes development of a simulation model of complex vascular geometries. The development of the model is important to reproduce vascular systems of small pieces of tissues which might be gotten from MRI or microscope images. The simulation model of the complex vascular systems might be divided into three parts: modeling the geometry, developing in- and outflow boundary conditions, and simulation domain decomposition for an efficient computation. We have found that for the in- and outflow boundary conditions it is better to use the SDPD fluid than DPD one because of the density fluctuations along the channel of the latter. During the flow in a straight channel, it is difficult to control the density of the DPD fluid. However, the SDPD fluid has not that shortcoming even in more complex channels with many branches and in- and outflows because the force acting on particles is calculated also depending on the local density of the fluid.

Simulations of forest loss in North America, the Amazon, and combined using the Community Earth System Model

The netcdf files in this archive comprise climate model output from Community Earth System Model for experiments looking at forest loss over Western North America and the Amazon. For further description of the model and configuration for these experiments please see the accompanying manuscript: Synergistic ecoclimate teleconnections from forest loss in different regions structure global ecological responses Elizabeth S. Garcia, Abigail L. S. Swann, Juan C. Villegas, David D. Breshears, Darin J. Law, Scott R. Saleska, and Scott C. Stark published in PLOS ONE, 2016. Contact information in README.txt

“Syndrome in syndrome”: Wernicke syndrome due to afferent loop syndrome. Case report and review of the literature

Wernicke syndrome is a rare neurological pathology due to a deficit in vitamin B1. The syndrome is common among alcohol abusers, patients with malignant tumor or gastrointestinal diseases, those who undergo hemodialysis or long-term peritoneal dialysis, pregnant women with hyperemesis, women who breast-feed, patients with hyperthyroidism or anorexia nervosa or gastric or jejunal-ileal bypass surgery for obesity, patients submitted to gastric surgery or prolonged total parenteral nutrition or prolonged intravenous therapy. We report a case of Wernicke syndrome due to afferent loop syndrome characterized by incoercible vomiting.

Load balancing for aspect ratio in adaptive finite element simulations

In parallel adaptive finite element simulations the work load on the individual processors may change frequently. To (re)distribute the load evenly over the processors a load balancing heuristic is needed. Common strategies try to minimise subdomain dependencies by optimising the cutsize of the partitioning. However for certain solvers cutsize only plays a minor role, and their convergence is highly dependent on the subdomain shapes. Degenerated subdomain shapes cause them to need significantly more iterations to converge. In this work a new parallel load balancing strategy is introduced which directly addresses the problem of generating and conserving reasonably good subdomain shapes in a dynamically changing Finite Element Simulation. Geometric data is used to formulate several cost functions to rate elements in terms of their suitability to be migrated. The well known diffusive method which calculates the necessary load flow is enhanced by weighting the subdomain edges with the help of these cost functions. The proposed methods have been tested and results are presented.

Three-dimensional, in-silico breast phantom for multimodality image simulations

We report on the construction of anatomically realistic three-dimensional in-silico breast phantoms with adjustable sizes, shapes and morphologic features. The concept of multiscale spatial resolution is implemented for generating breast tissue images from multiple modalities. Breast epidermal boundary and subcutaneous fat layer is generated by fitting an ellipsoid and 2nd degree polynomials to reconstructive surgical data and ultrasound imaging data. Intraglandular fat is simulated by randomly distributing and orienting adipose ellipsoids within a fibrous region immediately within the dermal layer. Cooper’s ligaments are simulated as fibrous ellipsoidal shells distributed within the subcutaneous fat layer. Individual ductal lobes are simulated following a random binary tree model which is generated based upon probabilistic branching conditions described by ramification matrices, as originally proposed by Bakic et al [3, 4]. The complete ductal structure of the breast is simulated from multiple lobes that extend from the base of the nipple and branch towards the chest wall. As lobe branching progresses, branches are reduced in height and radius and terminal branches are capped with spherical lobular clusters. Biophysical parameters are mapped onto the complete anatomical model and synthetic multimodal images (Mammography, Ultrasound, CT) are generated for phantoms of different adipose percentages (40%, 50%, 60%, and 70%) and are analytically compared with clinical examples. Results demonstrate that the in-silico breast phantom has applications in imaging performance evaluation and, specifically, great utility for solving image registration issues in multimodality imaging.