Univariate Parametric Survival Analysis using GS-distributions

The GS-distribution is a family of distributions that provide an accurate representation of any unimodal univariate continuous distribution. In this contribution we explore the utility of this family as a general model in survival analysis. We show that the survival function based on the GS-distribution is able to provide a model for univariate survival data and that appropriate estimates can be obtained. We develop some hypotheses tests that can be used for checking the underlying survival model and for comparing the survival of different groups.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognized at local scales, but its potential importance for plant species' distribution at larger spatial scales has largely been ignored. Tree cover acts as a modulator of local abiotic conditions, notably by reducing light availability below the canopy and thus the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains. Using 6,935 vegetation plots located across the European Alps, we fit Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for the distribution of 960 herbs and shrubs species to assess the effect of tree cover at both plot and landscape grain sizes (~ 10-m and 1-km, respectively). We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) for each species at both spatial grains. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-scale tree cover on plant communities. Finally, the effects on species' elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species' distribution under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved model performance, with shade-tolerant species increasing their probability of presence at high tree cover whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit strongest at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-scale plant communities, suggesting that the effects may be transmitted to coarser grains through meta-community dynamics. At high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited elevational range contractions, especially at their upper limit, whereas shade-tolerant species showed elevational range expansions at both limits. Our findings suggest that the range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modulated by tree cover dynamics.

Comparison of Compound Lean Nozzles and Controlled Flow Nozzles at Off-Design

Turbokoneet ja etenkin höyryturbiinit ovat usein suunniteltu ja optimoitu toimimaan tietyssä toimintapisteessä jossa häviöt on minimoitu ja hyötysuhde maksimoitu. Joissakin tapauksissa on kuitenkin tarpeellista käyttää turbiinia toimintapisteen ulkopuolella. Tällöin turbiinin läpi virtaava massavirta muuttuu ja yleensä heikentää hyötysuhdetta. Turbokoneiden suorituskykyä voidaan parantaa käyttämällä kolmidimensionaalisesti muotoiltuja siipiä. Työssä on vertailtu laskennallisesti kahta kohtuullisesti muotoiltua suutinta (Compound lean ja Controlled flow) niiden suunnitellun toimintapisteen ulkopuolella. Kolmas suutin, ilman kolmidimensionaalista muotoilua on mukana vertailukohteena. Suutinten suorituskykyä tutkitaan laskennallisen virtausmekaniikan avulla olosuhteissa, jotka ovat toimintapisteen ulkopuolella. Virtauksen muutoksia tutkitaan kokonaispainehäviön, isentrooppisen hyötysuhteen ja virtauspinnan yhdenmukaisuuden avulla. Virtauspintoja verrataan ulosvirtauskulman, massavirran ja toisiovirtausvektoreiden jakauman avulla. Erot suutinten suorituskykyvyssä korostavat ylikuormalla. Kun massavirran arvoa on kohotettu eniten, Compound lean suuttimilla hyötysuhde laskee Controlled flow suuttimeen verrattuna vähemmän. Alikuormalla, kun massavirran arvoa lasketaan, erot suuttimien suorituskyvyssä pienenevät ja tutkittujen suuttimien ulosvirtaus on samankaltainen.

Angular distributions of leptons from J/ ψ's produced in 920 GeV fixed-target proton-nucleus collisions

A study of the angular distributions of leptons from decays of J/ψ"s produced in p-C and p-W collisions at s√=41.6~GeV has been performed in the J/ψ Feynman-x region −0.341 GeV/c a significant dependence on the reference frame is found: the polar anisotropy is more pronounced in the Collins-Soper frame and almost vanishes in the helicity frame, where, instead, a significant azimuthal anisotropy arises.

Development of a PC Tool for Estimating Pressure Drops in Forced-convection Boiler Tubes

Kaksifaasivirtauksen kuvaamiseen käytettävät mallit, ja menetelmät kaksifaasivirtauksen painehäviön määrittämiseksi kehittyvät yhä monimutkaisimmiksi. Höyrystinputkissa tapahtuvien painehäviöiden arvioinnin vaatiman laskennan suorittamiseksi tietokoneohjelman kehittäminen on välttämätöntä. Tässä työssä on kehitetty itsenäinen PC-ohjelma painehäviöiden arvioimiseksi pakotetulle konvektiovirtaukselle pystysuorissa höyrykattilan höyrystinputkissa. Veden ja vesihöyryn aineominaisuuksien laskentaan käytetään IAPWS-IF97 –yhtälökokoelmaa sekä muita tarvittavia IAPWS:n suosittelemia yhtälöitä. Höyrystinputkessa kulloinkin vallitsevan virtausmuodon määrittämiseen käytetään sovelluskelpoisia virtausmuotojen välisiä rajoja kuvaavia yhtälöitä. Ohjelmassa käytetään painehäviön määritykseen kirjallisuudessa julkaistuja yhtälöitä, virtausmuodosta riippuen, alijäähtyneelle virtaukselle, kupla-, tulppa- ja rengasvirtaukselle sekä tulistetun höyryn virtaukselle. Ohjelman laskemia painehäviöarvioita verrattiin kirjallisuudesta valittuihin mittaustuloksiin. Laskettujen painehäviöiden virhe vaihteli välillä –19.5 ja +23.9 %. Virheiden itseisarvojen keskiarvo oli 12.8 %.

Aortic blood pressure measured via EIT: investigation of different measurement settings.

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) allows the measurement of intra-thoracic impedance changes related to cardiovascular activity. As a safe and low-cost imaging modality, EIT is an appealing candidate for non-invasive and continuous haemodynamic monitoring. EIT has recently been shown to allow the assessment of aortic blood pressure via the estimation of the aortic pulse arrival time (PAT). However, finding the aortic signal within EIT image sequences is a challenging task: the signal has a small amplitude and is difficult to locate due to the small size of the aorta and the inherent low spatial resolution of EIT. In order to most reliably detect the aortic signal, our objective was to understand the effect of EIT measurement settings (electrode belt placement, reconstruction algorithm). This paper investigates the influence of three transversal belt placements and two commonly-used difference reconstruction algorithms (Gauss-Newton and GREIT) on the measurement of aortic signals in view of aortic blood pressure estimation via EIT. A magnetic resonance imaging based three-dimensional finite element model of the haemodynamic bio-impedance properties of the human thorax was created. Two simulation experiments were performed with the aim to (1) evaluate the timing error in aortic PAT estimation and (2) quantify the strength of the aortic signal in each pixel of the EIT image sequences. Both experiments reveal better performance for images reconstructed with Gauss-Newton (with a noise figure of 0.5 or above) and a belt placement at the height of the heart or higher. According to the noise-free scenarios simulated, the uncertainty in the analysis of the aortic EIT signal is expected to induce blood pressure errors of at least ± 1.4 mmHg.

1C.06: Ambulatory pulse pressure is negatively associated with excretions of urinary caffeine and its metabolites

OBJECTIVE: Systolic blood pressure (BP) has been associated with urinary caffeine and its metabolites such as paraxanthine and theophylline. Caffeine and caffeine metabolites could influence arterial pulse pressure (PP) via sympathomimetic effects, smooth muscle relaxation, and phosphodiesterase inhibition. The purpose of this analysis was to explore the association of ambulatory PP with urinary caffeine and its related metabolites in a large population-based sample. DESIGN AND METHOD: Families were randomly selected from the general population of three Swiss cities (2009-2013). Ambulatory BP monitoring was conducted using validated Diasys Integra devices. PP was defined as the difference between the systolic and diastolic ambulatory BP. Urinary caffeine, paraxanthine, theophylline, and theobromine excretions were measured in 24 h urine using ultra-high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Urinary excretions were log-transformed to satisfy regression assumptions. We used linear mixed models to explore the associations of urinary caffeine and caffeine metabolite excretions with 24-hour, day- and night-time PP while adjusting for major confounders. RESULTS: The 836 participants (48.9% men) included in this analysis had mean (±SD) age of 47.8 (±17.5), and mean 24-hour systolic and diastolic BP of 120.1 mmHg (±13.9) and 78.0 (±8.6). Except theobromine, log transformed urinary caffeine and caffeine metabolite excretions were associated negatively with 24-hour, daytime and night-time ambulatory PP. 24-hour, daytime, and night-time ambulatory PP decreased by -0.804 mmHg (SE, 0.209), -0.749 (0.215), and -0.968 (0.243) (all P values <0.005), for each doubling excretion of caffeine. Strong negative associations with night-time ambulatory PP were observed for paraxanthine and theophylline.(Figure is included in full-text article.) CONCLUSIONS: : The negative associations of PP with caffeine, paraxanthine, and theophylline excretions suggest that caffeine and its metabolites do lower BP, possibly by modifying arterial stiffness.