The efficient use of water in the context of climate change

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Cultural circuits of climate change in U.K. broadsheet newspapers, 1985–2003

This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the “circuit of culture” model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985–2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change—1985–1990, 1991–1996, 1997–2003—which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.’s broadsheet newspapers’ discourse on “dangerous” climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Assessment of touristical-recreation potential of Georgia on background regional climate change

The determination of the climatic potential of tourism to Tbilisi (the capital of Georgia) into the correspondence with that frequently utilized in other countries of the “tourism climate index” is carried out.

Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Political alliances and organisational change in political parties: a framework for analysis

This article sets out a theoretical framework for the study of organisational change within political alliances. To achieve this objective it uses as a starting point a series of premises, the most notable of which include the definition of organisational change as a discrete, complex and focussed phenomenon of changes in power within the party. In accordance with these premises, it analyses the synthetic model of organisational change proposed by Panebianco (1988). After examining its limitations, a number of amendments are proposed to adapt it to the way political alliances operate. The above has resulted in the design of four new models. In order to test its validity and explanatory power in a preliminary manner, the second part looks at the organisational change of the UDC within the CiU alliance between 1978 and 2001. The discussion and conclusions reached demonstrate the problems of determinism of the Panebianco model and suggest, tentatively, the importance of the power balance within the alliance as a key factor.

Optimal Climate Change Policies When Governments Cannot Commit

This paper examines the optimal design of climate change policies in the context where governments want to encourage the private sector to undertake significant immediate investment in developing cleaner technologies, but the carbon taxes and other environmental policies that could in principle stimulate such investment will be imposed over a very long future. The conventional claim by environmental economists is that environmental policies alone are sufficient to induce firms to undertake optimal investment. However this argument requires governments to be able to commit to these future taxes, and it is far from clear that governments have this degree of commitment. We assume instead that governments cannot commit, and so both they and the private sector have to contemplate the possibility of there being governments in power in the future that give different (relative) weights to the environment. We show that this lack of commitment has a significant asymmetric effect. Compared to the situation where governments can commit it increases the incentive of the current government to have the investment undertaken, but reduces the incentive of the private sector to invest. Consequently governments may need to use additional policy instruments – such as R&D subsidies – to stimulate the required investment.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on genetic diversity in an endangered lizard species.

Many endangered species persist as a series of isolated populations, with some populations more genetically diverse than others. If climate change disproportionately threatens the most diverse populations, the species' ability to adapt (and hence its long-term viability) may be affected more severely than would be apparent by its numerical reduction. In the present study, we combine genetic data with modelling of species distributions under climate change to document this situation in an endangered lizard (Eulamprus leuraensis) from montane southeastern Australia. The species is known from only about 40 isolated swamps. Genetic diversity of lizard populations is greater in some sites than others, presumably reflecting consistently high habitat suitability over evolutionary time. Species distribution modelling suggests that the most genetically diverse populations are the ones most at risk from climate change, so that global warming will erode the species' genetic variability faster than it curtails the species' geographic distribution.

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

Parents, television and cultural change

This paper develops a model of cultural transmission where television plays a central role for socialization. Parents split their free time between educating their children which is costly and watching TV which though entertaining might socialize the children to the wrong trait. The free to air television industry maximizes advertisement revenue. We show that TV watching is increasing in cultural coverage, cost of education, TV's entertainment value and decreasing in the perceived cultural distance between the two traits. A monopolistic television industry captures all TV watching by both groups if the perceived cultural distance between groups is small relative to the TV's entertainment value. Otherwise, more coverage will be given to the most profitable group where profitability increases in group size, advertisement sensitivity and perceived cultural distance. This leads to two possible steady states where one group is larger but both groups survive in the long run. Competition in the media industry might lead to cultural extinction but only if one group is very insensitive to advertisement and not radical enough not to watch TV. We briefly discuss the existing evidence for the empirical predictions of the model.

Trace-element and phosphorus contents in sediment associated with Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events

ABSTRACT : During my SNSF-funded Ph.D. thesis project, I studied the evolution of redox conditions and organic-carbon preservation in the western Tethyan realm during three major positive excursions in the Cretaceous δ13C record, corresponding to the Valanginian, Early Aptian and Late Cenomanian. These periods were characterized by important global environmental and climate change, which was associated with perturbations in the carbon cycle. For the period of the Valanginian δ13C excursion, total organic carbon (TOC) contents and the quality of preserved organic matter are typical of oxic pelagic settings in the western Tethys. This is confirmed by the absence of major excursions in the stratigraphic distribution of RSTE during the δ13C shift. Published TOC data from other parts of the Valanginian oceans indicate that dys- to anaerobic zones were restricted to marginal seas within the Atlantic and Southern Ocean, and to the Pacific. Phosphorus (P) and mineralogical contents suggest a stepwise climatic evolution during the Valanginian, with a humid and warm climate prior to the δ13C shift leading to an increase in continental runoff. During the δ13C shift, a decrease in detrital input and P contents suggests a change in the climate towards more and conditions. During the early Aptian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 1a), a general increase followed by a rapid decrease in P contents suggests enhanced nutrient input at the beginning of OAE 1a. The return to lower values during OAE 1 a, associated with an increase in RSTE contents, may have been related to the weakened capacity to retain P in the sedimentary reservoir due to bottom-water oxygen depletion. In basinal settings, the RSTE distribution indicates well-developed anoxic conditions during OAE la, whereas in the shallower-water environments, conditions were oxic to suboxic, rather than anoxic. Furthermore, in the deeper part of the Tethys, two distinct enrichments have been observed, indicating fluctuations in the intensity of water column anoxia during the δ73C excursion. We also studied the effect of the end-Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 2) on an expanded section in the Chrummflueschlucht (E of Euthal, Ct Switzerland). The goal here was to identify paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental conditions during OAE 2 in this part of the northern Tethyan margin. The results show that this section is one of the most complete sections for the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary interval known from the Helvetic realm, despite a small hiatus between sediments corresponding to peaks 1 and 2 in the δ13C record. The evolution of P contents points to an increase in the input of this nutrient at the onset of OAE 2. The trends in RSTE contents show, however, that this part of the Helvetic realm was not affected by a strong depletion in oxygen conditions during OAE 2, despite its hemipelagic position. A further goal of this project was to submit the samples to a total extraction method (a combined HF/HNO3/HCI acid digestion) and compare the results obtained by the partial HNO3 acid extraction in order to standardize the analytical prócedures in the extraction of RSTE. The obtained results for samples of OAE 1 a suggest that RSTE trends using the partial HNO3 digestion are very comparable to those obtained by the total digestion method and subsequently normalized with regards to AI contents. RÉSUMÉ : Durant ce projet de thèse, financé par le Swiss National Science Funding (SNSF), j'ai étudié l'évolution des conditions redox et de la préservation de carbone organique dans le domnaine ouesttéthysien pendant trois excursions majeures du δ13C au Crétacé correspondant au Valanginien, à l'Aptien inférieur et à la limite Cénomanien-Turonien. Ces périodes sont caractérisées par des changements climatiques et environnementaux globaux associés à des perturbations dans le cylce du carbone. Pour L'excursion positive en δ13C du Valanginien, les analyses du carbone organique total (COT) et les observations palynologiques du domaine téthysien ont présenté des indications d'environnement pélagique relativementbienoxygéné. L'absence d'enrichissements en éléments traces sensibles aux conditions redox (TE) pendant l'excursion positive en δ13C confirme ces interprétations. Les données publiées de COT dans d'autres partie du globe indiquent cependant l'existence de conditions dys- à anaérobiques dans certains bassins restreints de l'Atlantique, l'Océan Austral et du Pacifique. L'évolution du phosphore (P) et la composition minéralogique des sédiments semblent indiquer un climat relativement chaud et humide avant l'excursion en δ13C entraînant une augmentation de l'altération continentale. Pendant le shift isotopique, une diminution des apports détritiques et du P suggèrent une transition vers des conditions plus arides. À l'Aptien Inférieur, le début de l'événement anoxique (OAE 1a) est marqué par une augmentation générale du P dans les sédiments indiquant une augmentation du niveau trophique à la base de l'excursion isotopique. Durant l'événement anoxique, les sédiments sont relativement appauvris en P. Cette diminution rapide associée à des enrichissements en TE est probablement liée à une remobilisation plus importante du P lors de la mise en place de conditions anoxiques dans les eaux de fond. Dans les environnements de bassin, le comportement des TE (enrichissements bien marqués) attestent de conditions réductrices bien marquées alors que dans les environnements moins profonds, les conditions semblent plutôt oxiques à dysoxiques. De plus, deux niveaux d'enrichissement en TE ont été observés dans la partie plus profonde de la Téthys, indiquant des fluctuations assez rapides dans l'intensité de l'anoxie de la colonne d'eau. Nous avons ensuite étudié les effets de l'événement anoxique de la fin du Cenomanien (OAE 2) dans un basin marginal de la marge nord de la Téthys avec la coupe de Chrummflueschlucht (à l'est de Euthal, Ct Schwyz). Les résultats ont montré que cette coupe présente un des enregistrements sédimentaires des plus complets de l'OAE 2 dans le domaine helvétique malgré un hiatus entre le pic 1 et 2 de l'excursion en δ13C. L'évolution du P montre une augmentation au début de l'OAE 2. Cependant, la distribution des TE indique que cette région n'a pas été affectée par des conditions réductrices trop importantes. Un second aspect de ce travail a été l'étude des différentes méthodes sur l'analyse de la distribution des TE. Des échantillons de l'OAE 1a ont été soumis à deux types d'extractions, l'une dite «totale » (attaque combinée d'acides HF/HNO3/HCI) et l'autre dite partielle » (HNO3). Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que les courbes de tendances des TE acquises par extraction partielle sont semblables à celle obtenues par extraction totale et normalisées par l'AI.

Plate tectonics, seaways and climate in the historical biogeography of mammals

The marsupial and placental mammals originated at a time when the pattern of geographical barriers (oceans, shallow seas and mountains) was very different from that of today, and climates were warmer. The sequence of changes in these barriers, and their effects on the dispersal of the mammal families and on the faunas of mammals in the different continents, are reviewed. The mammal fauna of South America changed greatly in the Pliocene/Pleistocene, when the newly-complete Panama Isthmus allowed the North American fauna to enter the continent and replace most of the former South American mammal families. Marsupial, but not placental, mammals reached Australia via Antarctica before Australia became isolated, while rats and bats are the only placentals that dispersed naturally from Asia to Australia in the late Cenozoic. Little is known of the early history of the mammal fauna of India. A few mammal families reached Madagascar from Africa in the early Cenozoic over a chain of islands. Africa was isolated for much of the early Cenozoic, though some groups did succeed in entering from Europe. Before the climate cooled in the mid-Cenozoic, the mammal faunas of the Northern Hemisphere were much richer than those of today.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Managing Climate Insecurity by Ensuring Continuous Capital Accumulation : 'Climate Refugees' and 'Climate Migrants'

Numerous recent reports by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), academics and international organisations have focused on so-called 'climate refugees'. This article examines the turn from a discourse of 'climate refugees', in which organisations perceive migration as a failure of both mitigation and adaptation to climate change, to one of 'climate migration', in which organisations promote migration as a strategy of adaptation. Its focus is the promotion of climate migration management, and it explores the trend of these discourses through two sections. First, it provides an empirical account of the two discourses, emphasising the differentiation between them. It then focuses on the discourse of climate migration, its origins, extent and content, and the associated practices of 'migration management'. The second part argues that the turn to the promotion of 'climate migration' should be understood as a way to manage the insecurity created by climate change. However, international organisations enacts this management within the forms of neoliberal capitalism, including the framework of governance. Therefore, the promotion of 'climate migration' as a strategy of adaptation to climate change is located within the tendencies of neoliberalism and the reconfiguration of southern states' sovereignty through governance.