Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. Weather forecasts using multiple NWPs from various weather centres implemented on catchment hydrology can provide significantly improved early flood warning. The availability of global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the development of state-of-the-art early flood forecasting systems. This paper presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment (4062 km2) located in the Midlands region of England. For the first time, a research attempt is made to set up a coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic cascade system driven by the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE database. The study shows that precipitation input uncertainties dominate and propagate through the cascade chain. The current NWPs fall short of representing the spatial precipitation variability on such a comparatively small catchment, which indicates need to improve NWPs resolution and/or disaggregating techniques to narrow down the spatial gap between meteorology and hydrology. The spread of discharge forecasts varies from centre to centre, but it is generally large and implies a significant level of uncertainties. Nevertheless, the results show the TIGGE database is a promising tool to forecast flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observation.

Efficient incorporation of channel cross-section geometry uncertainty into regional and global scale flood inundation models

This paper investigates the challenge of representing structural differences in river channel cross-section geometry for regional to global scale river hydraulic models and the effect this can have on simulations of wave dynamics. Classically, channel geometry is defined using data, yet at larger scales the necessary information and model structures do not exist to take this approach. We therefore propose a fundamentally different approach where the structural uncertainty in channel geometry is represented using a simple parameterization, which could then be estimated through calibration or data assimilation. This paper first outlines the development of a computationally efficient numerical scheme to represent generalised channel shapes using a single parameter, which is then validated using a simple straight channel test case and shown to predict wetted perimeter to within 2% for the channels tested. An application to the River Severn, UK is also presented, along with an analysis of model sensitivity to channel shape, depth and friction. The channel shape parameter was shown to improve model simulations of river level, particularly for more physically plausible channel roughness and depth parameter ranges. Calibrating channel Manning’s coefficient in a rectangular channel provided similar water level simulation accuracy in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to a model where friction and shape or depth were calibrated. However, the calibrated Manning coefficient in the rectangular channel model was ~2/3 greater than the likely physically realistic value for this reach and this erroneously slowed wave propagation times through the reach by several hours. Therefore, for large scale models applied in data sparse areas, calibrating channel depth and/or shape may be preferable to assuming a rectangular geometry and calibrating friction alone.

Geotechnical systems that evolve with ecological processes

Geotechnical systems, such as landfills, mine tailings storage facilities (TSFs), slopes, and levees, are required to perform safely throughout their service life, which can span from decades for levees to “in perpetuity” for TSFs. The conventional design practice by geotechnical engineers for these systems utilizes the as-built material properties to predict its performance throughout the required service life. The implicit assumption in this design methodology is that the soil properties are stable through time. This is counter to long-term field observations of these systems, particularly where ecological processes such as plant, animal, biological, and geochemical activity are present. Plant roots can densify soil and/or increase hydraulic conductivity, burrowing animals can increase seepage, biological activity can strengthen soil, geochemical processes can increase stiffness, etc. The engineering soil properties naturally change as a stable ecological system is gradually established following initial construction, and these changes alter system performance. This paper presents an integrated perspective and new approach to this issue, considering ecological, geotechnical, and mining demands and constraints. A series of data sets and case histories are utilized to examine these issues and to propose a more integrated design approach, and consideration is given to future opportunities to manage engineered landscapes as ecological systems. We conclude that soil scientists and restoration ecologists must be engaged in initial project design and geotechnical engineers must be active in long-term management during the facility’s service life. For near-surface geotechnical structures in particular, this requires an interdisciplinary perspective and the embracing of soil as a living ecological system rather than an inert construction material.

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post-peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition

Effect of temperature and strain rate on the compressive behaviour of supramolecular polyurethane

Supramolecular polyurethanes (SPUs) possess thermoresponsive and thermoreversible properties, and those characteristics are highly desirable in both bulk commodity and value-added applications such as adhesives, shape-memory materials, healable coatings and lightweight, impact-resistant structures (e.g. protection for mobile electronics). A better understanding of the mechanical properties, especially the rate and temperature sensitivity, of these materials are required to assess their suitability for different applications. In this paper, a newly developed SPU with tuneable thermal properties was studied, and the response of this SPU to compressive loading over strain rates from 10−3 to 104 s−1 was presented. Furthermore, the effect of temperature on the mechanical response was also demonstrated. The sample was tested using an Instron mechanical testing machine for quasi-static loading, a home-made hydraulic system for moderate rates and a traditional split Hopkinson pressure bars (SHPBs) for high strain rates. Results showed that the compression stress-strain behaviour was affected significantly by the thermoresponsive nature of SPU, but that, as expected for polymeric materials, the general trends of the temperature and the rate dependence mirror each other. However, this behaviour is more complicated than observed for many other polymeric materials, as a result of the richer range of transitions that influence the behaviour over the range of temperatures and strain rates tested.

Effect of enzymatic pretreatment and increasing the organic loading rate of lipid-rich wastewater treated in a hybrid UASB reactor

This study aimed at evaluating the effect of increasing organic loading rates and of enzyme pretreatment on the stability and efficiency of a hybrid upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactor (UASBh) treating dairy effluent. The UASBh was submitted to the following average organic loading rates (OLR) 0.98 Kg.m(-3).d(-1), 4.58 Kg.m(-3).d(-1), 8.89 Kg.m(-3).d(-1) and 15.73 Kg.m(-3).d(-1), and with the higher value, the reactor was fed with effluent with and without an enzymatic pretreatment to hydrolyze fats. The hydraulic detention time was 24 h, and the temperature was 30 +/- 2 degrees C. The reactor was equipped with a superior foam bed and showed good efficiency and stability until an OLR of 8.89 Kg.m(-3).d(-1). The foam bed was efficient for solid retention and residual volatile acid concentration consumption. The enzymatic pretreatment did not contribute to the process stability, propitiating loss in both biomass and system efficiency. Specific methanogenic activity tests indicated the presence of inhibition after the sludge had been submitted to the pretreated effluent It was concluded that continuous exposure to the hydrolysis products or to the enzyme caused a dramatic drop in the efficiency and stability of the process, and the single exposure of the biomass to this condition did not inhibit methane formation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal drought stress in the Amazon: Reconciling models and observations

The Amazon Basin is crucial to global circulatory and carbon patterns due to the large areal extent and large flux magnitude. Biogeophysical models have had difficulty reproducing the annual cycle of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon in some regions of the Amazon, generally simulating uptake during the wet season and efflux during seasonal drought. In reality, the opposite occurs. Observational and modeling studies have identified several mechanisms that explain the observed annual cycle, including: (1) deep soil columns that can store large water amount, (2) the ability of deep roots to access moisture at depth when near-surface soil dries during annual drought, (3) movement of water in the soil via hydraulic redistribution, allowing for more efficient uptake of water during the wet season, and moistening of near-surface soil during the annual drought, and (4) photosynthetic response to elevated light levels as cloudiness decreases during the dry season. We incorporate these mechanisms into the third version of the Simple Biosphere model (SiB3) both singly and collectively, and confront the results with observations. For the forest to maintain function through seasonal drought, there must be sufficient water storage in the soil to sustain transpiration through the dry season in addition to the ability of the roots to access the stored water. We find that individually, none of these mechanisms by themselves produces a simulation of the annual cycle of NEE that matches the observed. When these mechanisms are combined into the model, NEE follows the general trend of the observations, showing efflux during the wet season and uptake during seasonal drought.

Seismic activity triggered by water wells in the Parana Basin, Brazil

Triggered seismicity is commonly associated with deep water reservoirs or injection wells where water is injected at high pressure into the reservoir rock. However, earth tremors related solely to the opening of groundwater wells are extremely rare. Here we present a clear case of seismicity induced by pore-pressure changes following the drilling of water wells that exploit a confined aquifer in the intracratonic Parana Basin of southeastern Brazil. Since 2004, shallow seismic activity, with magnitudes up to 2.9 and intensities V MM, has been observed near deep wells (120-200 m) that were drilled in early 2003 near the town of Bebedouro. The wells were drilled for irrigation purposes, cross a sandstone layer about 60-80 m thick and extract water from a confined aquifer in fractured zones between basalt flow layers. Seismic activity, mainly event swarms, has occurred yearly since 2004, mostly during the rainy season when the wells are not pumped. During the dry season when the wells are pumped almost continuously, the activity is very low. A seismographic network, installed in March 2005, has located more than 2000 microearthquakes. The events are less than 1 km deep (mostly within the 0.5 km thick basalt layer) and cover an area roughly 1.5 km x 5 km across. The seismicity generally starts in a small area and expands to larger distances with an equivalent hydraulic diffusivity ranging from 0.06 to 0.6 m(2)/s. Geophysical and geothermal logging of several wells in the area showed that water from the shallow sandstone aquifer enters the well at the top and usually forms waterfalls. The waterfalls flow down the sides of the wells and feed the confined, fractured aquifer in the basalt layer at the bottom. Two seismic areas are observed: the main area surrounds several wells that are pumped continuously during the dry season, and a second area near another well (about 10 km from the first area) that is not used for irrigation and not pumped regularly. The main area displays cyclic annual activity, but the second area does not. We explain the earthquake swarms as being triggered by pore pressure diffusion in the fractured basalt layer due to additional pressure from the newly connected surface aquifer. This reaches critically prestressed areas up to a few kilometers away from the wells. During periods of continuous pumping, the reduction of pore pressure in the confined aquifer stops the seismic activity. Our study suggests that this kind of activity may be more common than previously thought and implies that many other cases of small tremors associated with the drilling of water wells may have gone unnoticed.

THE ENDOPARASITE PILOSTYLES ULEI (APODANTHACEAE - CUCURBITALES) INFLUENCES WOOD STRUCTURE IN THREE HOST SPECIES OF MIMOSA

Pilostyles species (Apodanthaceae) are endoparasites in stems of the plant family Fabaceae. The body comprises masses of parenchyma in the host bark and cortex, with sinkers, comprising groups of twisted tracheal elements surrounded by parenchyma that enter the secondary xylem of the host plant. Here we report for the first time the effects of Pilostyles parasitism on host secondary xylem. We obtained healthy and parasitized stems from Mimosa foliolosa, M. maguirei and M. setosa and compared vessel element length, fiber length, vessel diameter and vessel frequency, measured through digital imaging. Also, tree height and girth were compared between healthy and parasitized M. setosa. When parasitized, plant size, vessel diameter, vessel element length and fiber length are all less than in healthy plants. Also, vessel frequency is greater and vessels are narrower in parasitized stems. These responses to parasitism are similar to those observed in stressed plants. Thus, hosts respond to the parasite by changing its wood micromorphology in favour of increased hydraulic safety.

Evaluation of a bounded high order upwind scheme for 3D incompressible free surface flow computations

fit the context of normalized variable formulation (NVF) of Leonard and total variation diminishing (TVD) constraints of Harten. this paper presents an extension of it previous work by the authors for solving unsteady incompressible flow problems. The main contributions of the paper are threefold. First, it presents the results of the development and implementation of a bounded high order upwind adaptative QUICKEST scheme in the 3D robust code (Freeflow), for the numerical solution of the full incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Second, it reports numerical simulation results for 1D hock tube problem, 2D impinging jet and 2D/3D broken clam flows. Furthermore, these results are compared with existing analytical and experimental data. And third, it presents the application of the numerical method for solving 3D free surface flow problems. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved,

Culture and exopolysaccharide production from sugarcane molasses by Gordonia polyisoprenivorans CCT 7137, isolated from contaminated groundwater in Brazil

Gordonia polyisoprenivorans CCT 7137 was isolated from groundwater contaminated with leachate in an old controlled landfill (Sauo Paulo, Brazil), and cultured in GYM medium at different concentrations of sugarcane molasses (2%, 6%, and 10%). The strain growth was analyzed by monitoring the viable cell counts (c.f.u. mL(-1)) and optical density and EPS production was evaluated at the end of the exponential phase and 24 h after it. The analysis of the viable cell counts showed that the medium that most favored bacterial growth was not the one that favored EPS production. The control medium (GYM) was the one that most favored the strain growth, at the maximum specific growth rate of 0.232 h(-1). Differences in bacterial growth when cultured at three different concentrations of molasses were not observed. Production of EPS, in all culture media used, began during the exponential phase and continued during the growth stationary phase. The highest total EPS production, after 24 h of stationary phase, was observed in 6% molasses medium (172.86 g L(-1)) and 10% (139.47 g L(-1)) and the specific total EPS production was higher in 10% molasses medium (39.03 x10(-11)g c.f.u.(-1)). After the exponential phase, in 2%, 6%, and 10% molasses media, a higher percentage of free exopolysaccharides (EPS) was observed, representing 88.4%, 62.4%, and 64.2% of the total, respectively. A different result was observed in pattern medium, which presented EPS made up of higher percentage of capsular EPS (66.4% of the total). This work is the first study on EPS production by G. polyisoprenivorans strain in GYM medium and in medium utilizing sugarcane molasses as the sole nutrient source and suggests its potential use for EPS production by G. polyisoprenivorans CCT 7137 aiming at application in biotechnological processes.

Relation between sedimentary framework and hydrogeology in the Guarani Aquifer System in Sao Paulo state, Brazil

This paper presents the results of a new investigation of the Guarani Aquifer System (SAG) in Sao Paulo state. New data were acquired about sedimentary framework, flow pattern, and hydrogeochemistry. The flow direction in the north of the state is towards the southwest and not towards the west as expected previously. This is linked to the absence of SAG outcrop in the northeast of Sao Paulo state. Both the underlying Piramboia Formation and the overlying Botucatu Formation possess high porosity (18.9% and 19.5%, respectively), which was not modified significantly by diagenetic changes. Investigation of sediments confirmed a zone of chalcedony cement close to the SAG outcrop and a zone of calcite cement in the deep confined zone. The main events in the SAG post-sedimentary history were: (1) adhesion of ferrugineous coatings on grains, (2) infiltration of clays in eodiagenetic stage, (3) regeneration of coatings with formation of smectites, (4) authigenic overgrowth of quartz and K-feldspar in advanced eodiagenetic stage, (5) bitumen cementation of Piramboia Formation in mesodiagenetic stage, (6) cementation by calcite in mesodiagenetic and telodiagenetic stages in Piramboia Formation, (7) formation of secondary porosity by dissolution of unstable minerals after appearance of hydraulic gradient and penetration of the meteoric water caused by the uplift of the Serra do Mar coastal range in the Late Cretaceous, (8) authigenesis of kaolinite and amorphous silica in unconfined zone of the SAG and cation exchange coupled with the dissolution of calcite at the transition between unconfined and confined zone, and (9) authigenesis of analcime in the confined SAG zone. The last two processes are still under operation. The deep zone of the SAG comprises an alkaline pH, Na-HCO(3) groundwater type with old water and enriched delta(13)C values (<-3.9), which evolved from a neutral pH, Ca-HCO(3) groundwater type with young water and depleted delta(13)C values (>-18.8) close to the SAG outcrop. This is consistent with a conceptual geochemical model of the SAG, suggesting dissolution of calcite driven by cation exchange, which occurs at a relatively narrow front recently moving downgradient at much slower rate compared to groundwater flow. More depleted values of delta(18)O in the deep confined zone close to the Parana River compared to values of relative recent recharged water indicate recharge occur during a period of cold climate. The SAG is a ""storage-dominated"" type of aquifer which has to be managed properly to avoid its overexploitation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Controls of heavy minerals and grain size in a holocene regressive barrier (Ilha Comprida, southeastern Brazil)

Ilha Comprida is a regressive barrier island located in southeastern Brazil that was formed essentially by Quaternary sandy sediments. Ilha Comprida sediments were analyzed to assess heavy mineral indices and grain size variables. The spatial variation of heavy minerals and grain size was interpreted in terms of the present barrier dynamics and the barrier`s evolution since the Middle Holocene. These analyses allowed for the identification of the main factors and processes that control the variation of heavy minerals and grain size on the barrier. Rutile and zircon (RZi) and tourmaline and hornblende (THi) are significantly sensitive to provenance and exhibit the contributions of the Ribeira de Iguape River sediments, which reach the coast next to the northeastern end of Ilha Comprida. In addition to the influence of provenance, TZi responds mainly to hydraulic sorting processes. This agrees with a sediment transport pattern characterized by a divergence of two resultant net alongshore drifts southwest of the barrier. The sediments from the Ribeira de Iguape River reach the barrier directly through the river mouth and indirectly after temporary storage in the inner shelf. The combination of grain size and heavy mineral analyses is a reliable method for determining sediment transport patterns and provenance. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metal transport parameters of a gneiss saprolitic silty soil for liner design

Diffusion coefficients and retardation factors of two metal cations (Cd2+ and Pb2+) were measured for a compacted Brazilian saprolitic soil derived from gneiss, aiming to assess its geoenvironmental performance as a liner for waste disposal sites. This soil occurs extensively all over the country in very thick layers, but has not been used in liners because of its hydraulic conductivity, higher than 10(-9) m/s when compacted at optimum water content of standard Proctor energy, but which can be reduced by means of appropriate compaction techniques or additives. Batch, column, and diffusion tests were carried out with monospecies synthetic solutions at pH 1, 3, and 5.5. Measured diffusion coefficients varied between 0.5 and 4 X 10(-10) m(2)/s. Retardation factors show that cadmium, a very mobile cation, is not adsorbed at pH I but is significantly retained at pH 3 and pH 5.5, whereas lead is retained at all tested pH values though slightly at pH 1. Estimated retardation factors from batch tests were 1.3-2.3 times those resulting from column tests and at its highest when obtained by diffusion tests; whereas batch tests allow a more complete exposure of the soil grains to the solution, time-dependent nonspecific adsorption may take longer to occur. The importance of contact time was observed and should be considered in further investigations. Its significant retention of metals suggests a promising utilization of this soil as a bottom liner for wastes landfills.

Energy Analysis within Industrial Hydraulics and Correspondent Solar PV System Design

Energy efficiency and renewable energy use are two main priorities leading to industrial sustainability nowadays according to European Steel Technology Platform (ESTP). Modernization efforts can be done by industries to improve energy consumptions of the production lines. These days, steel making industrial applications are energy and emission intensive. It was estimated that over the past years, energy consumption and corresponding CO2 generation has increased steadily reaching approximately 338.15 parts per million in august 2010 [1]. These kinds of facts and statistics have introduced a lot of room for improvement in energy efficiency for industrial applications through modernization and use of renewable energy sources such as solar Photovoltaic Systems (PV).The purpose of this thesis work is to make a preliminary design and simulation of the solar photovoltaic system which would attempt to cover the energy demand of the initial part of the pickling line hydraulic system at the SSAB steel plant. For this purpose, the energy consumptions of this hydraulic system would be studied and evaluated and a general analysis of the hydraulic and control components performance would be done which would yield a proper set of guidelines contributing towards future energy savings. The results of the energy efficiency analysis showed that the initial part of the pickling line hydraulic system worked with a low efficiency of 3.3%. Results of general analysis showed that hydraulic accumulators of 650 liter size should be used by the initial part pickling line system in combination with a one pump delivery of 100 l/min. Based on this, one PV system can deliver energy to an AC motor-pump set covering 17.6% of total energy and another PV system can supply a DC hydraulic pump substituting 26.7% of the demand. The first system used 290 m2 area of the roof and was sized as 40 kWp, the second used 109 m2 and was sized as 15.2 kWp. It was concluded that the reason for the low efficiency was the oversized design of the system. Incremental modernization efforts could help to improve the hydraulic system energy efficiency and make the design of the solar photovoltaic system realistically possible. Two types of PV systems where analyzed in the thesis work. A method was found calculating the load simulation sequence based on the energy efficiency studies to help in the PV system simulations. Hydraulic accumulators integrated into the pickling line worked as energy storage when being charged by the PV system as well.