A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

Penetrating injuries of the thorax and abdomen: Type of medical-care institution and case fatality

The purpose of this study was to determine, for penetrating injuries (gunshot, stab) of the chest/abdomen, the impact on fatality of treatment in trauma centers and shock trauma units compared with general hospitals. Medical records of all cases of penetrating injury limited to chest/abdomen and admitted to and discharged from 7 study facilities in Baltimore city 1979-1980 (n = 581) were studied: 4 general hospitals (n = 241), 2 area-wide trauma centers (n = 298), and a shock trauma unit (n = 42). Emergency center and transferred cases were not studied. Anatomical injury severity, measured by modified Injury Severity Score (mISS), was a significant prognostic factor for death, as were cardiovascular shock (SBP $\le$ 70), injury type (gunshot vs stab), and ambulance/helicopter (vs other) transport. All deaths occurred in cases with two or more prognostic factors. Unadjusted relative risks of death compared with general hospitals were 4.3 (95% confidence interval = 2.2, 8.4) for shock trauma and 0.8 (0.4, 1.7) for trauma centers. Controlling for prognostic factors by logistic regression resulted in these relative risks: shock trauma 4.0 (0.7, 22.2), and trauma centers 0.8 (0.2, 3.2). Factors significantly associated with increased risk had the following relative risks by multiple logistic regression: SBP $\le$ 70 (RR = 40.7 (11.0, 148.7)), highest mISS (42 (7.7, 227)), gunshot (8.4 (2.1, 32.6)), and ambulance/helicopter transport (17.2 (1.3, 228.1)). Controlling for age, race, and gender did not alter results significantly. Actual deaths compared with deaths predicted from a multivariable model of general-hospital cases showed 3.7 more than predicted deaths in shock trauma (SMR = 1.6 (0.8, 2.9)) and 0.7 more than predicted deaths in area-wide trauma centers (SMR = 1.05 (0.6, 1.7)). Selection bias due to exclusion of transfers and emergency center cases, and residual confounding due to insufficient injury information, may account for persistence of adjusted high case fatality in shock trauma. Studying all cases prospectively, including emergency center and transferred cases, is needed. ^

Specialized managed care for children with cystic fibrosis: Resource use patterns and rate design for a high cost Medicaid population

Objective. This research study had two goals: (1) to describe resource consumption patterns for Medi-Cal children with cystic fibrosis, and (2) to explore the feasibility from a rate design perspective of developing specialized managed care plans for such a special needs population.^ Background. Children with special health care needs (CSHN) comprise about 2% of the California Medicaid pediatric population. CSHN have rare but serious health problems, such as cystic fibrosis. Medicaid programs, including Medi-Cal, are enrolling more and more beneficiaries in managed care to control costs. CSHN, however, do not fit the wellness model underlying most managed care plans. Child health advocates believe that both efficiency and quality will suffer if CSHN are removed from regionalized special care centers and scattered among general purpose plans. They believe that CSHN should be "carved out" from enrollment in general plans. One alternative is the Specialized Managed Care Plan, tailored for CSHN.^ Methods. The study population consisted of children under age 21 with CF who were eligible for Medi-Cal and California Children's Services program (CCS) during 1991. Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) Medicaid Tape-to-Tape data were analyzed as part of a California Children's Hospital Association (CCHA) project.^ Results. Mean Medi-Cal expenditures per month enrolled were $2,302 for 457 CF children, compared to about \$1,270 for all 47,000 CCS special needs children and roughly $60 for almost 2.6 million ``regular needs'' children. For CF children, inpatient care (80\%) and outpatient drugs (9\%) were the major cost drivers, with {\it all\/} outpatient visits comprising only 2\% of expenditures. About one-third of CF children were eligible due to AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children). Age group explained about 17\% of all expenditure variation. Regression analysis was used to select the best capitation rate structure (rate cells by age and eligibility group). Sensitivity analysis estimated moderate financial risk for a statewide plan (360 enrollees), but severe risk for single county implementation due to small numbers of children.^ Conclusions. Study results support the carve out of CSHN due to unique expenditure patterns. The Specialized Managed Care Plan concept appears feasible from a rate design perspective given sufficient enrollees. ^

The use of invasive myocardial revascularization procedures following myocardial infarction and the effectiveness of these procedures in the biethnic community of Nueces County, Texas, 1988--1991

High levels of poverty and unemployment, and low levels of health insurance coverage may pose barriers to obtaining cardiac care by Mexican Americans. We undertook this study to investigate differences in the use of invasive myocardial revascularization procedures received within the 4-month period following hospitalization for a myocardial infarction (MI) between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites in the Corpus Christi Heart Project (CCHP). The CCHP is a population-based surveillance program for hospitalized MI, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), and aortocoronary bypass surgery (ACBS). Medical record data were available for 1706 patients identified over a three-year period. Mexican Americans had significantly lower rates of receiving a PTCA following MI than non-Hispanic Whites (RR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.44-0.70). No meaningful ethnic difference was seen in the rates of ACBS use. History of PTCA use appeared to interact with ethnicity. Among patients without a history of PTCA use, Mexican Americans were less likely to receive a PTCA than non-Hispanic whites (RR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.46-0.76). Among patients with a history of PTCA use, however, Mexican Americans were more likely to receive a PTCA than non-Hispanic whites (RR: 1.47; 95% CI: 0.75-2.87).^ Differences in the effectiveness of a first-time PTCA and first-time ACBS between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites in the CCHP were also investigated. Mexican Americans were more likely to receive a 2nd PTCA (RR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.11-2.17) and suffer a subsequent MI (RR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.03-1.96) following a first-time PTCA than non-Hispanic whites. No meaningful ethnic differences were found in the rates of death and rates of ACBS following a first-time PTCA. Also, no significant ethnic differences were found in the rates of any of the events following a first-time ACBS. After adjusting for potential demographic, socioeconomic, clinical and angiographic confounders using Cox regression analysis, Mexican Americans were still more likely to receive a 2nd PTCA (HR: 1.38; 95% CI: 0.99-1.93) following a first-time PTCA than non-Hispanic whites. A significant difference in the rates of a subsequent MI following a first-time PTCA persisted (HR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.01-1.93). (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ATTITUDE ASSESSMENT/ROLE PERCEPTION AND THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF HOSPITAL DEPARTMENT MANAGERS

Much of the current healthcare financial literature addresses the concern of government officials, the public, and healthcare providers regarding the need for control of health care costs. The literature suggests that attitudes of hospital department managers toward their role in financial management affects their ability to effect favorable financial results.^ There were several objectives of the dissertation: (1) To identify whether or not there exists a relationship between the attitude/role perception of hospital managers and the financial performance of their departments. (2) To compile a descriptive survey data base of key factors identified in the financial literature from individual hospitals. (3) To compile a brief descriptive survey of hospital managers' financial management background and training (both formal and informal). (4) To conduct an attitude assessment/role perception survey regarding the importance or relevance of a suggested financial management role set (i.e., issues discussed in the current literature) as viewed by the selected hospital managers and their matched administrators. (5) To propose plausible theoretical models and statistical tests of seven proposed hypotheses.^ The statistical results of a variety of methods generally suggested, for the sample population, that the null hypothesis should not be rejected concerning the relationships between a department manager's financial attitudes and role perceptions and the resultant financial performance.^ The fact that the results of this study did not suggest that there was a significant relationship which existed between role perception and financial performance does not necessarily indicate that the theories supporting such a relationship in literature are false, not that such a relationship does not exist. Several alternative theories were postulated to explain the apparent lack of statistical relationship, and suggestions for refinement and/or improvement of further research were discussed. ^