872 resultados para Harrison


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Observations from the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard the twin STEREO spacecraft have enabled the compilation of several catalogues of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), each characterizing the propagation of CMEs through the inner heliosphere. Three such catalogues are the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL)-HI event list, the Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue, and, presented here, the J-tracker catalogue. Each catalogue uses a different method to characterize the location of CME fronts in the HI images: manual identification by an expert, the statistical reduction of the manual identifications of many citizen scientists, and an automated algorithm. We provide a quantitative comparison of the differences between these catalogues and techniques, using 51 CMEs common to each catalogue. The time-elongation profiles of these CME fronts are compared, as are the estimates of the CME kinematics derived from application of three widely used single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. The J-tracker and RAL-HI profiles are most similar, while the Solar Stormwatch profiles display a small systematic offset. Evidence is presented that these differences arise because the RAL-HI and J-tracker profiles follow the sunward edge of CME density enhancements, while Solar Stormwatch profiles track closer to the antisunward (leading) edge. We demonstrate that the method used to produce the time-elongation profile typically introduces more variability into the kinematic estimates than differences between the various single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. This has implications for the repeatability and robustness of these types of analyses, arguably especially so in the context of space weather forecasting, where it could make the results strongly dependent on the methods used by the forecaster.

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Blanket bog occupies approximately 6 % of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanket-bog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland, Wales and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre-Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland, and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of blanket bogs in the UK, and it is not necessary to invoke anthropogenic activity as a driver of this major landscape change.

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We describe the creation of a data set describing changes related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and elevation of ice-free land at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which were used in LGM experiments conducted as part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the third phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The CMIP5/PMIP3 data sets were created from reconstructions made by three different groups, which were all obtained using a model-inversion approach but differ in the assumptions used in the modelling and in the type of data used as constraints. The ice-sheet extent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) does not vary substantially between the three individual data sources. The difference in the topography of the NH ice sheets is also moderate, and smaller than the differences between these reconstructions (and the resultant composite reconstruction) and ice-sheet reconstructions used in previous generations of PMIP. Only two of the individual reconstructions provide information for Antarctica. The discrepancy between these two reconstructions is larger than the difference for the NH ice sheets, although still less than the difference between the composite reconstruction and previous PMIP ice-sheet reconstructions. Although largely confined to the ice-covered regions, differences between the climate response to the individual LGM reconstructions extend over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northern Hemisphere continents, partly through atmospheric stationary waves. Differences between the climate response to the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and any individual ice-sheet reconstruction are smaller than those between the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and the ice sheet used in the last phase of PMIP (PMIP2).

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We apply the Coexistence Approach (CoA) to reconstruct mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), mean temperature of thewarmestmonth (MTWA) and mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO) at 44 pollen sites on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. The modern climate ranges of the taxa are obtained (1) from county-level presence/absence data and (2) from data on the optimum and range of each taxon from Lu et al. (2011). The CoA based on the optimumand range data yields better predictions of observed climate parameters at the pollen sites than that based on the county-level data. The presence of arboreal pollen, most of which is derived fromoutside the region, distorts the reconstructions. More reliable reconstructions are obtained using only the non-arboreal component of the pollen assemblages. The root mean-squared error (RMSE) of the MAP reconstructions are smaller than the RMSE of MAT, MTWA and MTCO, suggesting that precipitation gradients are the most important control of vegetation distribution on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. Our results show that CoA could be used to reconstruct past climates in this region, although in areas characterized by open vegetation the most reliable estimates will be obtained by excluding possible arboreal contaminants.

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Structural differences among models account for much of the uncertainty in projected climate changes, at least until the mid-twenty-first century. Recent observations encompass too limited a range of climate variability to provide a robust test of the ability to simulate climate changes. Past climate changes provide a unique opportunity for out-of-sample evaluation of model performance. Palaeo-evaluation has shown that the large-scale changes seen in twenty-first-century projections, including enhanced land–sea temperature contrast, latitudinal amplification, changes in temperature seasonality and scaling of precipitation with temperature, are likely to be realistic. Although models generally simulate changes in large-scale circulation sufficiently well to shift regional climates in the right direction, they often do not predict the correct magnitude of these changes. Differences in performance are only weakly related to modern-day biases or climate sensitivity, and more sophisticated models are not better at simulating climate changes. Although models correctly capture the broad patterns of climate change, improvements are required to produce reliable regional projections.

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The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.

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Pro-inflammatory cytokines may be important in the pathophysiological responses of the heart. We investigated the activation of the three mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) subfamilies ¿c-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNKs), p38-MAPKs and extracellularly-responsive kinases (ERKs) by interleukin-1 beta (IL-1 beta) or tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha) in primary cultures of myocytes isolated from neonatal rat ventricles. Both cytokines stimulated a rapid (maximal within 10 min) increase in JNK activity. Although activation of JNKs by IL-1 beta was transient returning to control values within 1 h, the response to TNF alpha was sustained. IL-1 beta and TNF alpha also stimulated p38-MAPK phosphorylation, but the response to IL-1 beta was consistently greater than TNF alpha. Both cytokines activated ERKs, but to a lesser degree than that induced by phorbol esters. The transcription factors, c-Jun and ATF2, are phosphorylated by the MAPKs and are implicated in the upregulation of c-Jun. IL-1 beta and TNF alpha stimulated the phosphorylation of c-Jun and ATF2. However, IL-1 beta induced a greater increase in c-Jun protein. Inhibitors of protein kinase C (PKC) (Ro318220, GF109203X) and the ERK cascade (PD98059) attenuated the increase in c-Jun induced by IL-1 beta, but LY294002 (an inhibitor of phosphatidylinositol 3' kinase) and SB203580 (an inhibitor of p38-MAPK, which also inhibits certain JNK isoforms) had no effect. These data illustrate that some of the pathological effects of IL-1 beta and TNF alpha may be mediated through the MAPK cascades, and that the ERK cascade, rather than JNKs or p38-MAPKs, are implicated in the upregulation of c-Jun by IL-1 beta.

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Lightning flash rates, RL, are modulated by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and the polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in near-Earth space. As the HMF polarity reverses at the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), typically within a CIR, these phenomena are likely related. In this study, RL is found to be significantly enhanced at the HCS and at 27 days prior/after. The strength of the enhancement depends on the polarity of the HMF reversal at the HCS. Near-Earth solar and galactic energetic particle fluxes are also ordered by HMF polarity, though the variations qualitatively differ from RL, with the main increase occurring prior to the HCS crossing. Thus, the CIR effect on lightning is either the result of compression/amplification of the HMF (and its subsequent interaction with the terrestrial system) or that energetic particle preconditioning of the Earth system prior to the HMF polarity change is central to solar wind lightning coupling mechanism.

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Cardiac hypertrophy, an important adaptational response, is associated with up-regulation of the immediate early gene, c- jun, which encodes the c-Jun transcription factor. c-Jun may feed back to up-regulate its own transcription and, since the c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) family of mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) phosphorylate c-Jun(Ser-63/73) to increase its transactivating activity, JNKs are thought to be the principal factors involved in c- jun up-regulation. Hypertrophy in primary cultures of cardiac myocytes is induced by endothelin-1, phenylephrine or PMA, probably through activation of one or more of the MAPK family. These three agonists increased c- jun mRNA with the rank order of potency of PMA approximately endothelin-1>phenylephrine. Up-regulation of c- jun mRNA by endothelin-1 was attenuated by inhibitors of protein kinase C (GF109203X) and the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) cascade (PD98059 or U0126), but not by inhibitors of the JNK (SP600125) or p38-MAPK (SB203580) cascades. Hyperosmotic shock (0.5 M sorbitol) powerfully activates JNKs, but did not increase c- jun mRNA. These data suggest that ERKs, rather than JNKs, are required for c- jun up-regulation. However, endothelin-1 and phenylephrine induced greater up-regulation of c-Jun protein than PMA and phosphorylation of c-Jun(Ser-63/73) correlated with the level of c-Jun protein. Up-regulation of c-Jun protein by endothelin-1 was attenuated by inhibitors of protein kinase C and the ERK cascade, probably correlating with a primary input of ERKs into transcription. In addition, SP600125 inhibited the phosphorylation of c-Jun(Ser-63/73), attenuated the increase in c-Jun protein induced by endothelin-1 and increased the rate of c-Jun degradation. Thus whereas ERKs are the principal MAPKs required for c- jun transcription, JNKs are necessary to stabilize c-Jun for efficient up-regulation of the protein.

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Cardiac myocyte death, whether through necrotic or apoptotic mechanisms, is a contributing factor to many cardiac pathologies. Although necrosis and apoptosis are the widely accepted forms of cell death, they may utilize the same cell death machinery. The environment within the cell probably dictates the final outcome, producing a spectrum of response between the two extremes. This review examines the probable mechanisms involved in myocyte death. Caspases, the generally accepted executioners of apoptosis, are significant in executing cardiac myocyte death, but other proteases (e.g., calpains, cathepsins) also promote cell death, and these are discussed. The two principal cell death pathways (death receptor- and mitochondrial-mediated) are described in relation to the emerging structural information for the principal proteins, and they are discussed relative to current understanding of myocyte cell death mechanisms. Whereas the mitochondrial pathway is probably a significant factor in myocyte death in both acute and chronic phases of myocardial diseases, the death receptor pathway may prove significant in the longer term. The Bcl-2 family of proteins are key regulators of the mitochondrial death pathway. These proteins are described and their possible functions are discussed. The commitment to cell death is also influenced by protein kinase cascades that are activated in the cell. Whereas certain pathways are cytoprotective (e.g., phosphatidylinositol 3'-kinase), the roles of other kinases are less clear. Since myocyte death is implicated in a number of cardiac pathologies, attenuation of the death pathways may prove important in ameliorating such disease states, and possible therapeutic strategies are explored.

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Cardiac myocyte hypertrophy is associated with an increase in expression of immediate early genes (e.g. c-jun) via activation of pre-existing transcription factors. The activity of CREB transcription factor is regulated through phosphorylation of Ser-133 by one of several protein kinases (e.g. protein kinase A (PKA), p90 ribosomal S6 kinases (RSKs) and the related kinase, MSK1). A cell-permeable form of cAMP, hypertrophic agonists (endothelin-1 (ET-1), phenylephrine (PE)) and hyperosmotic shock all promoted phosphorylation of CREB(Ser-133) in rat neonatal cardiac myocytes. The response to endothelin-1 required the extracellular signal-regulated kinase cascade which stimulates both RSKs and MSK1. Phosphorylation of CREB(Ser-133) in response to ET-1 was not associated with any increase in DNA binding to a consensus cAMP-response element (CRE). The rat c-jun promoter contains elements which may bind either c-Jun/ATF2 or CREB/ATF1 dimers. Using extracts from rat cardiac myocytes, we identified at least two complexes which bind to the most proximal of these elements, one of which contained CREB and the other c-Jun. Thus, phosphorylation and activation of CREB in cardiac myocytes may be effected by a range of different stimuli to influence the expression of immediate early genes such as c-jun.

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Restoration and maintenance of habitat diversity have been suggested as conservation priorities in farmed landscapes, but how this should be achieved and at what scale are unclear. This study makes a novel comparison of the effectiveness of three wildlife-friendly farming schemes for supporting local habitat diversity and species richness on 12 farms in England. The schemes were: (i) Conservation Grade (Conservation Grade: a prescriptive, non-organic, biodiversity-focused scheme), (ii) organic agriculture and (iii) a baseline of Entry Level Stewardship (Entry Level Stewardship: a flexible widespread government scheme). Conservation Grade farms supported a quarter higher habitat diversity at the 100-m radius scale compared to Entry Level Stewardship farms. Conservation Grade and organic farms both supported a fifth higher habitat diversity at the 250-m radius scale compared to Entry Level Stewardship farms. Habitat diversity at the 100-m and 250-m scales significantly predicted species richness of butterflies and plants. Habitat diversity at the 100-m scale also significantly predicted species richness of birds in winter and solitary bees. There were no significant relationships between habitat diversity and species richness for bumblebees or birds in summer. Butterfly species richness was significantly higher on organic farms (50% higher) and marginally higher on Conservation Grade farms (20% higher), compared with farms in Entry Level Stewardship. Organic farms supported significantly more plant species than Entry Level Stewardship farms (70% higher) but Conservation Grade farms did not (10% higher). There were no significant differences between the three schemes for species richness of bumblebees, solitary bees or birds. Policy implications. The wildlife-friendly farming schemes which included compulsory changes in management, Conservation Grade and organic, were more effective at increasing local habitat diversity and species richness compared with the less prescriptive Entry Level Stewardship scheme. We recommend that wildlife-friendly farming schemes should aim to enhance and maintain high local habitat diversity, through mechanisms such as option packages, where farmers are required to deliver a combination of several habitats.

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We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

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Background Pseudomonas syringae can cause stem necrosis and canker in a wide range of woody species including cherry, plum, peach, horse chestnut and ash. The detection and quantification of lesion progression over time in woody tissues is a key trait for breeders to select upon for resistance. Results In this study a general, rapid and reliable approach to lesion quantification using image recognition and an artificial neural network model was developed. This was applied to screen both the virulence of a range of P. syringae pathovars and the resistance of a set of cherry and plum accessions to bacterial canker. The method developed was more objective than scoring by eye and allowed the detection of putatively resistant plant material for further study. Conclusions Automated image analysis will facilitate rapid screening of material for resistance to bacterial and other phytopathogens, allowing more efficient selection and quantification of resistance responses.