Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in the Gulf of Maine: Pattern and Role of Zooplankton and Pelagic Nekton

This paper forms part of a broader overview of biodiversity of marine life in the Gulf of Maine area (GoMA), facilitated by the GoMA Census of Marine Life program. It synthesizes current data on species diversity of zooplankton and pelagic nekton, including compilation of observed species and descriptions of seasonal, regional and cross-shelf diversity patterns. Zooplankton diversity in the GoMA is characterized by spatial differences in community composition among the neritic environment, the coastal shelf, and deep offshore waters. Copepod diversity increased with depth on the Scotian Shelf. On the coastal shelf of the western Gulf of Maine, the number of higher-level taxonomic groups declined with distance from shore, reflecting more nearshore meroplankton. Copepod diversity increased in late summer, and interdecadal diversity shifts were observed, including a period of higher diversity in the 1990s. Changes in species diversity were greatest on interannual scales, intermediate on seasonal scales, and smallest across regions, in contrast to abundance patterns, suggesting that zooplankton diversity may be a more sensitive indicator of ecosystem response to interannual climate variation than zooplankton abundance. Local factors such as bathymetry, proximity of the coast, and advection probably drive zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity patterns in the GoMA, while ocean-basin-scale diversity patterns probably contribute to the increase in diversity at the Scotian Shelf break, a zone of mixing between the cold-temperate community of the shelf and the warm-water community offshore. Pressing research needs include establishment of a comprehensive system for observing change in zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity, enhanced observations of "underknown'' but important functional components of the ecosystem, population and metapopulation studies, and development of analytical modeling tools to enhance understanding of diversity patterns and drivers. Ultimately, sustained observations and modeling analysis of biodiversity must be effectively communicated to managers and incorporated into ecosystem approaches for management of GoMA living marine resources.

Die verschiedenen Geruchsarten der Rosen

von Herrn Henry Curtis

Women physicians' specialty choices

Three hypotheses have been offered to explain the historical specialty selection by women physicians. They are: (1) women choose the specialty for which the training requirements and working conditions interfere least with their commitments to marriage and children; (2) women tend to select the more "feminine" specialties such as pediatrics and psychiatry, and to avoid the "masculine" fields such as surgery; and (3) women have been deliberately excluded from male-dominated fields such as surgery. While the above hypotheses may be true to a greater or lesser degree, none of them has been adequately tested.^ The major study hypotheses are as follows: (1) female physicians' choice of specialty is influenced by the following reasons: (a) family responsibilities; (b) sex role expectations; and (c) sex discrimination; (2) female physicians' choice of specialty is also influenced by their age and ethnicity; and (3) the primary reasons for choosing a given specialty vary by type of specialty.^ The reasons for specialty selection will be explored based on a survey of women graduates of one of the oldest medical schools in the United States, The University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) in Galveston, Texas (n = 930). The survey response rate was 75.3% (700 respondents).^ The results for the first study hypothesis showed that fewer than 14% of the respondents agreed that sex role expectations, sex discrimination and family responsibilities played a role in their choice of specialty. Fifty nine percent of the respondents disagreed with the idea that sex role expectations influenced specialty selection and 64% disagreed that family responsibilities had an effect on the selection of their specialty. Around half (49%) were uncertain of the influence of sex discrimination. It was concluded that sex discrimination, sex role expectations and family responsibilities did not have a major impact on specialty selection.^ With respect to the second hypothesis, age was significant in Internal Medicine, Obstetrics/Gynecology and Psychiatry. Women physicians in Internal Medicine and Obstetrics/Gynecology were significantly younger (less than 45 years old) while physicians in Psychiatry were significantly older (45 years or older) than other specialties studied.^ The third hypothesis was confirmed: the reasons for choosing a given specialty varied by specialty.^ Respondents' comments written on the survey provided insight into other possible reasons for specialty selection including exploration of the role of mentoring and job satisfaction.^ The retrospective cross-sectional study design used in this study does not adequately capture the fact that different reasons may be given for the choice of specialty at different points in time, e.g., as the time of choosing a residency program versus several years into the future.^ In conclusion, approaches that explore the range of reasons that women elect to enter and stay within a given specialty must be explored to gain richer understanding of the complex and dynamic nature of women physicians' professional lives. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

AVIAN ROTAVIRUSES

The prevalence of antirotavirus antibodies in chickens and turkeys in the Gonzales, Texas and Llano, Texas areas was studied. Caged layer chicken flocks were found to have a prevalence of 64% when samples were taken randomly. This compares to 45% in chicken broiler breeder flocks and 92% in turkey breeding flocks. The natural occurrence of turkey rotavirus infection in two separate field studies showed an increase in mortality varying from 9% to 45% above expected death losses. Clinically, pasted vents, lacitude, and general malaise were noted in affected poults. Lesions noted on post mortem examination were; slight ballooning of the small intestine, excessively large ceca, and mild hyperemia of the small and large intestines.^ The use of maternal antibody from simian rotavirus immunized chickens' eggs for preventing murine rotavirus infection in infant mice was investigated. There was a reduction from 91% to 15% incidence when infant mice were treated twice daily with egg yolk immunoglobulin.^ The need for a convenient, easily grown and rapidly reproducing model for avian and mammalian rotaviruses led to the use of coturnix chicks. The turkey rotavirus was adapted to the quail chicks be serial passage. Transmission and scanning electron microscopy as well as micropathological methods were used in the study of the pathogenesis of rotavirus infection in quail and infant mice. ^

Improving adherence in African American women with uncontrolled primary hypertension

Background and Objectives: African American (AA) women are disproportionately affected with hypertension (HTN). The aim of this randomized controlled trial was to evaluate the effectiveness of a 6-week culturally-tailored educational intervention for AA women with primary HTN who lived in rural Northeast Texas. ^ Methods: Sixty AA women, 29 to 86 years (M 57.98 ±12.37) with primary HTN were recruited from four rural locations and randomized to intervention (n =30) and wait-list control groups ( n =30) to determine the effectiveness of the intervention on knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, social support, adherence to a hypertension regimen, and blood pressure (BP) control. Survey and BP measurements were collected at baseline, 3 weeks, 6 weeks (post intervention) and 6 months post intervention. Culturally-tailored educational classes were provided for 90 minutes once a week for 6 weeks in two local churches and a community center. The wait-list control group received usual care and were offered education at the conclusion of the data collection six months post-intervention. Linear mixed models were used to test for differences between the groups. ^ Results: A significant overall main effect (Time) was found for systolic blood pressure, F(3, 174) =11.104, p=.000, and diastolic blood pressure. F(3, 174) =4.781, p=.003 for both groups. Age was a significant covariate for diastolic blood pressure. F(1, 56) =6.798 p=.012. Participants 57 years or older (n=30) had lower diastolic BPS than participants younger than 57 (n=30). No significant differences were found between groups on knowledge, adherence, or attitudes. Participants with lower incomes had significantly less knowledge about HBP Prevention (r=.036, p=.006). ^ Conclusion: AA women who participated in a 6 week intervention program demonstrated a significant decrease in BP over a 6 month period regardless of whether they were in the intervention or control group. These rural AA women had a relatively good knowledge of HTN and reported an average level of compliance, compared to other populations. Satisfaction with the program was high and there was no attrition, suggesting that AA women will participate in research studies that are culturally tailored to them, held in familiar community locations, and conducted by a trusted person with whom they can identify. Future studies using a different program with larger sample sizes are warranted to try to decrease the high level of HTN-related complications in AA women. ^

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

Targeting Special Populations for Family Preservation: The Influence of Worker Competence and Organizational Culture

Today there are approximately 581,000 children in the United States foster care system. Children of color, one special population group, are disproportionately represented in the foster care system. Family preservation, a program that aims to improve family functioning and thus decrease the need for foster care, has been examined closely. Some researchers believe that family preservation programs have failed partly due to practitioners' inability to target appropriate families (Feldman, 1990; Schuerman, Rzepnicki & Littell, 1994). Additionally, research confirms that children of color are not the target of family preservation services (Denby, Curtis, & Alford, 1998). Improvements in the effectiveness of family preservation will require many types of reform both internal and external to the program. Among the types of internal reform needed is accurate "targeting of services. " Given the overrepresentation of children of color in the foster care system, this group must be among those who are targeted for services. The results of a national survey of 254 family preservation workers reveal a "profile" of the worker who is likely to target special populations, including children of color, for family preservation services. A case is made for service improvements and training to facilitate the "profiled" workers' competencies.

Family Preservation Journal, 2003, Volume 7. (Entire issue)

Entire issue (large pdf file) Articles include: Social Workers' Perceptions of Family Preservation Programs. Elaine M Maccio, David Skiba, Howard J Doueck, Karen A. Randolph, Elisabeth A. Weston, and Lorie E. Anderson Targeting Special Populations for Family Preservation: The Influence of Worker Competence and Organizational Culture. Ramona W: Denby, Keith A. Alford, and Carla M Curtis Understanding and Fostering Family Resilience. Robert G. Blair Walking Our Talk in the Neighborhoods: Building Professional/Natural Helper Partnerships. Jill Kinney and Margaret Trent Intersystem Collaboration: A Statewide Initiative to Support Families. Elizabeth M Tracy, David E. Biegel, Ann C. Rebeck, and Jeffrey A. Johnsen

High-resolution marine record of sediment core MD99-2343 in the Balearic Sea

The IMAGES core MD99-2343, recovered from a sediment drift north of the island of Minorca, in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, holds a high-resolution sequence that is perfectly suited to study the oscillations of the overturning system of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). Detailed analysis of grain-size and bulk geochemical composition reveals the sensitivity of this region to climate changes at both orbital and centennial-millennial temporal scales during the last 50 kyr. The dominant orbital pattern in the K/Al record indicates that sediment supply to the basin was controlled by the insolation evolution at 40°N, which forced changes in the fluvial regime, with more efficient sediment transport during insolation maxima. This orbital control also modulated the long-term pattern of the WMDW intensity as illustrated by the silt/clay ratio. However, deep convection was particularly sensitive to climatic changes at shorter time-scales, i.e. to centennial-millennial glacial and Holocene oscillations that are well documented by all the paleocurrent intensity proxies (Si/Al, Ti/Al and silt/clay ratios). Benthic isotopic records (d13C and d18O) show a Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) pattern of variability of WMDW properties, which can be associated with changing intensities of the deep currents system. The most prominent reduction on the WMDW overturning was caused by the post-glacial sea level rise. Three main scenarios of WMDW overturning are revealed: a strong mode during D-O Stadials, a weak mode during D-O Interstadials and an intermediate mode during cooling transitions. In addition, D-O Stadials associated with Heinrich events (HEs) have a very distinct signature as the strong mode of circulation, typical for the other D-O Stadials, was never reached during HE due to the surface freshening induced by the inflowing polar waters. Consequently, the WMDW overturning system oscillated around the intermediate mode of circulation during HE. Though surface conditions were more stable during the Holocene, the WMDW overturning cell still reacted synchronously to short-lived events, as shown by increments in the planktonic d18O record, triggering quick reinforcements of the deep water circulation. Overall, these results highlight the sensitivity of the WMDW to rapid climate change which in the recent past were likely induced by oceanographic and atmospheric reorganizations in the North Atlantic region.

Stable isotope record of benthic and planktonic foraminifera in sediment cores of ODP Leg 177, Southern Ocean

While onboard ship during Leg 177, we used variations in sediment physical properties (mainly percent color reflectance) in conjunction with biomagnetostratigraphy to correlate among sites and predict the position of marine isotope stages (MISs) (e.g., see fig. F11 in Shipboard Scientific Party, 1999, p. 45). Our working assumption was that physical properties of Leg 177 sediments are controlled mainly by variations in carbonate content. Previous studies of Southern Ocean sediment cores have shown that carbonate concentrations are relatively high during interglacial stages and low during glacial stages at sites located within the Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ). Today, the PFZ marks a lithologic boundary in underlying sediment separating calcareous oozes to the north and silica-rich facies to the south (Hays et al., 1976). Although there is debate whether the position of the "physical" PFZ actually moved during glacial-interglacial cycles (Charles and Fairbanks, 1990; Matsumoto et al., 2001), the "biochemical" PFZ, as expressed by the CaCO3/opal boundary in sediments, certainly migrated north during glacials and south during interglacials. This gave rise to lithologic variations that are useful for stratigraphic correlation. At Leg 177 sites located north of the PFZ and at sublysoclinal depths, we expected the same pattern of carbonate variation because cores in the Atlantic basin are marked by increased carbonate dissolution during glacial periods and increased preservation during interglacials (Crowley, 1985).