Patterns of recurrence of early breast cancer according to estrogen receptor status: a therapeutic target for a quarter of a century

The current therapeutic strategy in breast cancer is to identify a target, such as estrogen receptor (ER) status, for tailoring treatments. We investigated the patterns of recurrence with respect to ER status for patients treated in two randomized trials with 25 years' median follow-up. In the ER-negative subpopulations most breast cancer events occurred within the first 5-7 years after randomization, while in the ER-positive subpopulations breast cancer events were spread through 10 years. In the ER-positive subpopulation, 1 year endocrine treatment alone significantly prolonged disease-free survival (DFS) with no additional benefit observed by adding 1 year of chemotherapy. In the small ER-negative subpopulation chemo-endocrine therapy had a significantly better DFS than endocrine alone or no treatment. Despite small numbers of patients, "old-fashioned" treatments, and competing causes of treatment failure, the value of ER status as a target for response to adjuvant treatment is evident through prolonged follow-up.

Prognosis of patients treated with cART from 36 months after initiation, according to current and previous CD4 cell count and plasma HIV-1 RNA measurements

OBJECTIVES: CD4 cell count and plasma viral load are well known predictors of AIDS and mortality in HIV-1-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). This study investigated, in patients treated for at least 3 years, the respective prognostic importance of values measured at cART initiation, and 6 and 36 months later, for AIDS and death. METHODS: Patients from 15 HIV cohorts included in the ART Cohort Collaboration, aged at least 16 years, antiretroviral-naive when they started cART and followed for at least 36 months after start of cART were eligible. RESULTS: Among 14 208 patients, the median CD4 cell counts at 0, 6 and 36 months were 210, 320 and 450 cells/microl, respectively, and 78% of patients achieved viral load less than 500 copies/ml at 6 months. In models adjusted for characteristics at cART initiation and for values at all time points, values at 36 months were the strongest predictors of subsequent rates of AIDS and death. Although CD4 cell count and viral load at cART initiation were no longer prognostic of AIDS or of death after 36 months, viral load at 6 months and change in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months were prognostic for rates of AIDS from 36 months. CONCLUSIONS: Although current values of CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA are the most important prognostic factors for subsequent AIDS and death rates in HIV-1-infected patients treated with cART, changes in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months and the value of 6-month HIV-1 RNA are also prognostic for AIDS.

Comparing the validity and output of the GT1M and GT3X accelerometer in 5- to 9-year-old children

The purpose of this study was to compare the validity and output of the biaxial ActiGraph GT1M and the triaxial GT3X (ActiGraph, LLC, Pensacola, FL, USA)accelerometer in 5- to 9-year-old children. Thirty-two children wore the two monitors while their energy expenditure was measured with indirect calorimetry. They performed four locomotor and four play activities in an exercise laboratory and were further measured during 12 minutes of a sports lesson. Validity evidence in relation to indirect calorimetry was examined with linear regression equations applied to the laboratory data. During the sports lessons predicted energy expenditure according to the regression equations was compared to measured energy expenditure with the Wilcoxon-signed rank test and the Spearman correlation. To compare the output, agreement between counts of the two monitors during the laboratory activities was assessed with Bland-Altman plots. The evidence of validity was similar for both monitors. Agreement between the output of the two monitors was good for vertical counts (mean bias = −14 ± 22 counts) but not for horizontal counts (−17 ± 32 counts). The current results indicate that the two accelerometer models are able to estimate energy expenditure of a range of physical activities equally well in young children. However, they show output differences for movement in the horizontal direction.

Coronary artery disease severity and aortic stenosis: clinical outcomes according to SYNTAX score in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

AIM The aim of this study was to evaluate whether coronary artery disease (CAD) severity exerts a gradient of risk in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 445 patients with severe AS undergoing TAVI were included into a prospective registry between 2007 and 2012. The preoperative SYNTAX score (SS) was determined from baseline coronary angiograms. In case of revascularization prior to TAVI, residual SS (rSS) was also determined. Clinical outcomes were compared between patients without CAD (n = 158), patients with low SS (0-22, n = 207), and patients with high SS (SS >22, n = 80). The pre-specified primary endpoint was the composite of cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction (MI). At 1 year, CAD severity was associated with higher rates of the primary endpoint (no CAD: 12.5%, low SS: 16.1%, high SS: 29.6%; P = 0.016). This was driven by differences in cardiovascular mortality (no CAD: 8.6%, low SS: 13.6%, high SS: 20.4%; P = 0.029), whereas the risk of stroke (no CAD: 5.1%, low SS: 3.3%, high SS: 6.7%; P = 0.79) and MI (no CAD: 1.5%, low SS: 1.1%, high SS: 4.0%; P = 0.54) was similar across the three groups. Patients with high SS received less complete revascularization as indicated by a higher rSS (21.2 ± 12.0 vs. 4.0 ± 4.4, P < 0.001) compared with patients with low SS. High rSS tertile (>14) was associated with higher rates of the primary endpoint at 1 year (no CAD: 12.5%, low rSS: 16.5%, high rSS: 26.3%, P = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS Severity of CAD appears to be associated with impaired clinical outcomes at 1 year after TAVI. Patients with SS >22 receive less complete revascularization and have a higher risk of cardiovascular death, stroke, or MI than patients without CAD or low SS.

Forest dynamics during the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød at Gerzensee—a simulation study

The aim of this study was to explore potential causes and mechanisms for the sequence and temporal pattern of tree taxa, specifically for the shift from shrub-tundra to birch–juniper woodland during and after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød in the region surrounding the lake Gerzensee in southern Central Europe. We tested the influence of climate, forest dynamics, community dynamics compared to other causes for delays. For this aim temperature reconstructed from a δ18O-record was used as input driving the multi-species forest-landscape model TreeMig. In a stepwise scenario analysis, population dynamics along with pollen production and transport were simulated and compared with pollen-influx data, according to scenarios of different δ18O/temperature sensitivities, different precipitation levels, with/without inter-specific competition, and with/without prescribed arrival of species. In the best-fitting scenarios, the effects on competitive relationships, pollen production, spatial forest structure, albedo, and surface roughness were examined in more detail. The appearance of most taxa in the data could only be explained by the coldest temperature scenario with a sensitivity of 0.3‰/°C, corresponding to an anomaly of − 15 °C. Once the taxa were present, their temporal pattern was shaped by competition. The later arrival of Pinus could not be explained even by the coldest temperatures, and its timing had to be prescribed by first observations in the pollen record. After the arrival into the simulation area, the expansion of Pinus was further influenced by competitors and minor climate oscillations. The rapid change in the simulated species composition went along with a drastic change in forest structure, leaf area, albedo, and surface roughness. Pollen increased only shortly after biomass. Based on our simulations, two alternative potential scenarios for the pollen pattern can be given: either very cold climate suppressed most species in the Oldest Dryas, or they were delayed by soil formation or migration. One taxon, Pinus, was delayed by migration and then additionally hindered by competition. Community dynamics affected the pattern in two ways: potentially by facilitation, i.e. by nitrogen-fixing pioneer species at the onset, whereas the later pattern was clearly shaped by competition. The simulated structural changes illustrate how vegetation on a larger scale could feed back to the climate system. For a better understanding, a more integrated simulation approach covering also the immigration from refugia would be necessary, for this combines climate-driven population dynamics, migration, individual pollen production and transport, soil dynamics, and physiology of individual pollen production.

The Application of Comorbidity Indices to Predict Early Postoperative Outcomes After Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass: A Nationwide Comparative Analysis of Over 70,000 Cases

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) often have substantial comorbidities, which must be taken into account to appropriately assess expected postoperative outcomes. The Charlson/Deyo and Elixhauser indices are widely used comorbidity measures, both of which also have revised algorithms based on enhanced ICD-9-CM coding. It is currently unclear which of the existing comorbidity measures best predicts early postoperative outcomes following LRYGB. METHODS: Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, patients 18 years or older undergoing LRYGB for obesity between 2001 and 2008 were identified. Comorbidities were assessed according to the original and enhanced Charlson/Deyo and Elixhauser indices. Using multivariate logistic regression, the following early postoperative outcomes were assessed: overall postoperative complications, length of hospital stay, and conversion to open surgery. Model performance for the four comorbidity indices was assessed and compared using C-statistics and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC). RESULTS: A total of 70,287 patients were included. Mean age was 43.1 years (SD, 10.8), 81.6 % were female and 60.3 % were White. Both the original and enhanced Elixhauser indices modestly outperformed the Charlson/Deyo in predicting the surgical outcomes. All four models had similar C-statistics, but the original Elixhauser index was associated with the smallest AIC for all of the surgical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The original Elixhauser index is the best predictor of early postoperative outcomes in our cohort of patients undergoing LRYGB. However, differences between the Charlson/Deyo and Elixhauser indices are modest, and each of these indices provides clinically relevant insight for predicting early postoperative outcomes in this high-risk patient population.

Experience with the delegation of anaesthesia for disbudding and castration to trained and certified livestock owners

BACKGROUND: Anaesthesia is mandatory for disbudding and castrating calves and lambs of any age, in Switzerland. According to the "anaesthesia delegation model" (ADM), anaesthesia for disbudding calves <3 weeks of age and castrating calves and lambs <2 weeks of age may be administered by certified farmers. Experience with this unique model is not available. The aim was to evaluate the experience of the veterinary practitioners with the ADM. The response rate was 42%. The survey consisted of one questionnaire for each procedure. Procedure I was the delegation of anaesthesia for disbudding calves and procedures II and III were anaesthesia for castrating calves and lambs. RESULTS: Procedure I was performed with local anaesthesia in all farms of 51.8% of the veterinary practices, while this was only 39.3% and 7.6% for procedures II and III (p < 0.001). Anaesthesia for procedure I was administered technically correctly by farmers in at least 66% of the farms of 58.3% of the practitioners, while this was 45.4% and only 23.6% for procedures II and III (p < 0.001). The ADM was assessed as a moderate to very good model to reinforce the legal obligations for procedures I, II, or III by 74.8%, 76.5% and 62.0% of the veterinary practitioners (p < 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The delegation of anaesthesia to certified farmers may be a promising model to reinforce the obligation to provide local anaesthesia for disbudding and castrating calves, but to a lesser extent for castrating lambs.

Characteristics and comprehensiveness of adult HIV care and treatment programmes in Asia-Pacific, sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas: results of a site assessment conducted by the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Collaboration

INTRODUCTION HIV care and treatment programmes worldwide are transforming as they push to deliver universal access to essential prevention, care and treatment services to persons living with HIV and their communities. The characteristics and capacity of these HIV programmes affect patient outcomes and quality of care. Despite the importance of ensuring optimal outcomes, few studies have addressed the capacity of HIV programmes to deliver comprehensive care. We sought to describe such capacity in HIV programmes in seven regions worldwide. METHODS Staff from 128 sites in 41 countries participating in the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS completed a site survey from 2009 to 2010, including sites in the Asia-Pacific region (n=20), Latin America and the Caribbean (n=7), North America (n=7), Central Africa (n=12), East Africa (n=51), Southern Africa (n=16) and West Africa (n=15). We computed a measure of the comprehensiveness of care based on seven World Health Organization-recommended essential HIV services. RESULTS Most sites reported serving urban (61%; region range (rr): 33-100%) and both adult and paediatric populations (77%; rr: 29-96%). Only 45% of HIV clinics that reported treating children had paediatricians on staff. As for the seven essential services, survey respondents reported that CD4+ cell count testing was available to all but one site, while tuberculosis (TB) screening and community outreach services were available in 80 and 72%, respectively. The remaining four essential services - nutritional support (82%), combination antiretroviral therapy adherence support (88%), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) (94%) and other prevention and clinical management services (97%) - were uniformly available. Approximately half (46%) of sites reported offering all seven services. Newer sites and sites in settings with low rankings on the UN Human Development Index (HDI), especially those in the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief focus countries, tended to offer a more comprehensive array of essential services. HIV care programme characteristics and comprehensiveness varied according to the number of years the site had been in operation and the HDI of the site setting, with more recently established clinics in low-HDI settings reporting a more comprehensive array of available services. Survey respondents frequently identified contact tracing of patients, patient outreach, nutritional counselling, onsite viral load testing, universal TB screening and the provision of isoniazid preventive therapy as unavailable services. CONCLUSIONS This study serves as a baseline for on-going monitoring of the evolution of care delivery over time and lays the groundwork for evaluating HIV treatment outcomes in relation to site capacity for comprehensive care.

Management of ST-elevation myocardial infarction according to European and American guidelines.

AIMS To highlight differences between the most recent guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association (ACCF/AHA) on the management of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS AND RESULTS ESC 2012 and ACCF/AHA 2013 guidelines on the management of STEMI were systematically reviewed for consistency. Recommendations were matched, directly compared in terms of class of recommendation and level of evidence, and classified as "identical", "overlapping", or "different". Out of 32 recommendations compared, 26 recommendations (81%) were classified as identical or overlapping, and six recommendations (19%) were classified as different. Most diverging recommendations were related to minor differences in class of recommendation between the two documents. This applies to recommendations for reperfusion therapy >12 hours after symptom onset, immediate transfer of all patients after fibrinolytic therapy, rescue PCI for patients with failed fibrinolysis, and intra-aortic balloon pump use in patients with cardiogenic shock. More substantial differences were observed with respect to the type of P2Y12 inhibitor and duration of dual antiplatelet therapy. CONCLUSIONS The majority of recommendations for the management of STEMI according to ESC and ACCF/AHA guidelines were identical or overlapping. Differences were explained by gaps in available evidence, in which case expert consensus differed between European and American guidelines due to divergence in interpretation, perception, and culture of medical practice. Systematic comparisons of European and American guidelines are valuable and indicate that interpretation of available evidence leads to agreement in the vast majority of topics. The latter is indirect support for the process of review and guideline preparation on both sides of the Atlantic.

[Transition - how adolescents with cystic fibrosis their parents experience the change from paediatric to adult care].

BACKGROUND Cystic Fibrosis is the most common autosomal-recessive hereditary disease among white Europeans. The average survival of CF patients has increased to above 40 years and transition from paediatric to adult care has therefore become a significant issue. AIM With this study, experiences of adolescents with CF and their parents with the transition from the paediatric to the adult care were explored. METHODS At a Swiss university CF centre, six adolescents and their mothers were recruited. Twelve narrative interviews were conducted on how the phase of transition was experienced. The transcribed interviews were analysed according to the method of hermeneutic phenomenology. RESULTS Positive and negative experiences with long term routine care in the paediatric service, general themes of adolescence and the quality of the relationship with paediatric doctors influenced the families' experience during transition significantly. For mothers, insensitive information on the CF diagnosis might have influenced the transition experience. The adolescents welcomed an individualized and age appropriate care. Continuity in care, the announcement of, and involvement in the planning of the transfer were of great importance. The families particularly appreciated the timed adaptations of the transfer to individual needs. CONCLUSIONS Flexibility and a strong collaboration between paediatric and adult CF teams are most relevant in the care of families.

PEDro or Cochrane to Assess the Quality of Clinical Trials? A Meta-Epidemiological Study.

OBJECTIVE There is debate on how the methodological quality of clinical trials should be assessed. We compared trials of physical therapy (PT) judged to be of adequate quality based on summary scores from the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale with trials judged to be of adequate quality by Cochrane Risk of Bias criteria. DESIGN Meta-epidemiological study within Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. METHODS Meta-analyses of PT trials were identified in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. For each trial PeDro and Cochrane assessments were extracted from the PeDro and Cochrane databases. Adequate quality was defined as adequate generation of random sequence, concealment of allocation, and blinding of outcome assessors (Cochrane criteria) or as trials with a PEDro summary score ≥5 or ≥6 points. We combined trials of adequate quality using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS Forty-one Cochrane reviews and 353 PT trials were included. All meta-analyses included trials with PEDro scores ≥5, 37 (90.2%) included trials with PEDro scores ≥6 and only 22 (53.7%) meta-analyses included trials of adequate quality according to the Cochrane criteria. Agreement between PeDro and Cochrane was poor for PeDro scores of ≥5 points (kappa = 0.12; 95% CI 0.07 to 0.16) and slight for ≥6 points (kappa 0.24; 95% CI 0.16-0.32). When combining effect sizes of trials deemed to be of adequate quality according to PEDro or Cochrane criteria, we found that a substantial difference in the combined effect size (≥0.15) was evident in 9 (22%) out of the 41 meta-analyses for PEDro cutoff ≥5 and 10 (24%) for cutoff ≥6. CONCLUSIONS The PeDro and Cochrane approaches lead to different sets of trials of adequate quality, and different combined treatment estimates from meta-analyses of these trials. A consistent approach to assessing RoB in trials of physical therapy should be adopted.

Model for ranking freshwater fish farms according to their risk of infection and illustration for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

Resistance to Temptation: The Interaction of External and Internal Control on Alcohol Use During Residential Treatment for Alcohol Use Disorder

Background: There is evidence that drinking during residential treatment is related to various factors, such as patients’ general control beliefs and self-efficacy, as well as to external control of alcohol use by program’s staff and situations where there is temptation to drink. As alcohol use during treatment has been shown to be associated with the resumption of alcohol use after discharge from residential treatment, we aimed to investigate how these variables are related to alcohol use during abstinenceoriented residential treatment programs for alcohol use disorders (AUD). Methods: In total, 509 patients who entered 1 of 2 residential abstinence-oriented treatment programs for AUD were included in the study. After detoxification, patients completed a standardized diagnostic procedure including interviews and questionnaires. Drinking was assessed by patients’ selfreport of at least 1 standard drink or by positive breathalyzer testing. The 2 residential programs were categorized as high or low control according to the average number of tests per patient. Results: Regression analysis revealed a significant interaction effect between internal and external control suggesting that patients with high internal locus of control and high frequency of control by staff demonstrated the least alcohol use during treatment (16.7%) while patients with low internal locus of control in programs with low external control were more likely to use alcohol during Treatment (45.9%). No effects were found for self-efficacy and temptation. Conclusions: As alcohol use during treatment is most likely associated with poor treatment outcomes, external control may improve treatment outcomes and particularly support patients with low internal locus of control, who show the highest risk for alcohol use during treatment. High external control may complement high internal control to improve alcohol use prevention while in treatment. Key Words: Alcohol Dependence, Alcohol Use, Locus of Control, Alcohol Testing.

Trends in incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancer according to morphology and anatomical location, in Switzerland 1982-2011.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY/PRINCIPLES This study aimed to evaluate trends in the incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancer by anatomical location and histology using nationally representative Swiss data. METHODS We included all oesophageal and gastric cancers recorded in 10 Swiss population-based cancer registries 1982-2011. We calculated age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 person-years (PY) (European standard) for both cancer sites stratified by sex, language region (German, French-Italian), morphology and anatomical location. To assess time trends, we estimated annual percentage changes (APCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS ASIR of oesophageal adenocarcinoma increased in both sexes and language regions (p <0.001). The steepest increase occurred in males of the German-speaking region (APC 6.8%, 95% CI 5.8-7.8) with ASIRs of 0.8 per 100,000 PY in 1982-1987 and 3.9 per 100.000 PY in 2007-2011. Incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma decreased significantly in males of both language regions by around -1.5% per year. In contrast, a slight but significant increase (APC 1.4%, 95% CI 0.3-2.4]) of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma was observed in females of the German-speaking region. We observed stable rates for cancer of the gastric cardia. The incidence of noncardia gastric cancer decreased substantially in both sexes and language regions (p <0.001). CONCLUSION In Switzerland, the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has risen whereas incidence of noncardia gastric cancer has decreased substantially as observed in other developed countries.

The Swiss Canine Cancer Registry: a retrospective study on the occurrence of tumours in dogs in Switzerland from 1955 to 2008

Diagnostic records are a key feature of any cancer epidemiology, prevention or control strategy for man and animals. Therefore, the information stored in human and animal cancer registries is essential for undertaking comparative epidemiological, pathogenic and therapeutic research. This study presents the Swiss Canine Cancer Registry, containing case data compiled between 1955 and 2008. The data consist of pathology diagnostic records issued by three veterinary diagnostic laboratories in Switzerland. The tumours were classified according to the guidelines of the International Classification of Oncology for Humans on the basis of tumour type, malignancy and body location. The dogs were classified according to breed, age, sex, neuter status and place of residence. The diagnostic data were correlated with data on the Swiss general dog population and the incidence of cancer in dogs was thus investigated. A total of 67,943 tumours were diagnosed in 121,963 dogs and 47.07% of these were malignant. The most common tumour location was the skin (37.05%), followed by mammary glands (23.55%) and soft tissue (13.66%). The most common tumour diagnoses were epithelial (38.45%), mesenchymal (35.10%) and lymphoid tumours (13.23%). The results are compared with data in other canine registries and similarities in tumour distribution and incidence are noted. It is hoped that this study will mark the beginning of continuous registration of dog tumours in Switzerland, which, in turn, will serve as a reference for research in the fields of animal and human oncology.