Monte Carlo simulation of a clearance box monitor used for nuclear power plant decommissioning.

When decommissioning a nuclear facility it is important to be able to estimate activity levels of potentially radioactive samples and compare with clearance values defined by regulatory authorities. This paper presents a method of calibrating a clearance box monitor based on practical experimental measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. Adjusting the simulation for experimental data obtained using a simple point source permits the computation of absolute calibration factors for more complex geometries with an accuracy of a bit more than 20%. The uncertainty of the calibration factor can be improved to about 10% when the simulation is used relatively, in direct comparison with a measurement performed in the same geometry but with another nuclide. The simulation can also be used to validate the experimental calibration procedure when the sample is supposed to be homogeneous but the calibration factor is derived from a plate phantom. For more realistic geometries, like a small gravel dumpster, Monte Carlo simulation shows that the calibration factor obtained with a larger homogeneous phantom is correct within about 20%, if sample density is taken as the influencing parameter. Finally, simulation can be used to estimate the effect of a contamination hotspot. The research supporting this paper shows that activity could be largely underestimated in the event of a centrally-located hotspot and overestimated for a peripherally-located hotspot if the sample is assumed to be homogeneously contaminated. This demonstrates the usefulness of being able to complement experimental methods with Monte Carlo simulations in order to estimate calibration factors that cannot be directly measured because of a lack of available material or specific geometries.

Using Digital Video Analysis to Monitor Driver Behavior at Intersections

Commercially available instruments for road-side data collection take highly limited measurements, require extensive manual input, or are too expensive for widespread use. However, inexpensive computer vision techniques for digital video analysis can be applied to automate the monitoring of driver, vehicle, and pedestrian behaviors. These techniques can measure safety-related variables that cannot be easily measured using existing sensors. The use of these techniques will lead to an improved understanding of the decisions made by drivers at intersections. These automated techniques allow the collection of large amounts of safety-related data in a relatively short amount of time. There is a need to develop an easily deployable system to utilize these new techniques. This project implemented and tested a digital video analysis system for use at intersections. A prototype video recording system was developed for field deployment. A computer interface was implemented and served to simplify and automate the data analysis and the data review process. Driver behavior was measured at urban and rural non-signalized intersections. Recorded digital video was analyzed and used to test the system.

Two novel MvaT-like global regulators control exoproduct formation and biocontrol activity in root-associated Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0.

Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 protects various crop plants against root diseases caused by pathogenic fungi. Among a range of exoproducts excreted by strain CHA0, the antifungal compounds 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol (DAPG) and pyoluteorin (PLT) are particularly relevant to the strain's biocontrol potential. Here, we report on the characterization of MvaT and MvaV as novel regulators of biocontrol activity in strain CHA0. We establish the two proteins as further members of an emerging family of MvaT-like regulators in pseudomonads that are structurally and functionally related to the DNA-binding protein H-NS. In mvaT and mvaV in frame-deletion mutants of strain CHA0, PLT production was enhanced about four- and 1.5-fold, respectively, whereas DAPG production remained at wild-type levels. Remarkably, PLT production was increased up to 20-fold in an mvaT mvaV double mutant. DAPG biosynthesis was almost completely repressed in this mutant. The effects on antibiotic production could be confirmed by following expression of gfp-based reporter fusions to the corresponding biosynthetic genes. MvaT and MvaV also influenced levels of other exoproducts, motility, and physicochemical cell-surface properties to various extents. Compared with the wild type, mvaT and mvaV mutants had an about 20% reduced capacity (in terms of plant fresh weight) to protect cucumber from a root rot caused by Pythium ultimum. Biocontrol activity was nearly completely abolished in the double mutant Our findings indicate that MvaT and MvaV act together as further global regulatory elements in the complex network controlling expression of biocontrol traits in plant-beneficial pseudomonads.

Field Evaluation of Compaction Monitoring Technology: Phase I, 2004

This Phase I report describes a preliminary evaluation of a new compaction monitoring system developed by Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT), for use as a quality control and quality assurance (QC/QA) tool during earthwork construction operations. The CAT compaction monitoring system consists of an instrumented roller with sensors to monitor machine power output in response to changes in soil machine interaction and is fitted with a global positioning system (GPS) to monitor roller location in real time. Three pilot tests were conducted using CAT’s compaction monitoring technology. Two of the sites were located in Peoria, Illinois, at the Caterpillar facilities. The third project was an actual earthwork grading project in West Des Moines, Iowa. Typical construction operations for all tests included the following steps: (1) aerate/till existing soil; (2) moisture condition soil with water truck (if too dry); (3) remix; (4) blade to level surface; and (5) compact soil using the CAT CP-533E roller instrumented with the compaction monitoring sensors and display screen. Test strips varied in loose lift thickness, water content, and length. The results of the study show that it is possible to evaluate soil compaction with relatively good accuracy using machine energy as an indicator, with the advantage of 100% coverage with results in real time. Additional field trials are necessary, however, to expand the range of correlations to other soil types, different roller configurations, roller speeds, lift thicknesses, and water contents. Further, with increased use of this technology, new QC/QA guidelines will need to be developed with a framework in statistical analysis. Results from Phase I revealed that the CAT compaction monitoring method has a high level of promise for use as a QC/QA tool but that additional testing is necessary in order to prove its validity under a wide range of field conditions. The Phase II work plan involves establishing a Technical Advisor Committee, developing a better understanding of the algorithms used, performing further testing in a controlled environment, testing on project sites in the Midwest, and developing QC/QA procedures.

Deciphering the global organization of clustering in real complex networks

We uncover the global organization of clustering in real complex networks. To this end, we ask whether triangles in real networks organize as in maximally random graphs with given degree and clustering distributions, or as in maximally ordered graph models where triangles are forced into modules. The answer comes by way of exploring m-core landscapes, where the m-core is defined, akin to the k-core, as the maximal subgraph with edges participating in at least m triangles. This property defines a set of nested subgraphs that, contrarily to k-cores, is able to distinguish between hierarchical and modular architectures. We find that the clustering organization in real networks is neither completely random nor ordered although, surprisingly, it is more random than modular. This supports the idea that the structure of real networks may in fact be the outcome of self-organized processes based on local optimization rules, in contrast to global optimization principles.

The global welfare impact of China: Trade integration and technological change

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model.We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a "balanced" one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an "unbalanced" one in whichChina's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to theworld productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004),the large majority of countries experience significantly larger welfare gains whenChina's productivity growth is biased towards its comparative disadvantage sectors.This finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade.

Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Potential of local bio-geoengineering to mitigate dangerous temperature increases in a global warming scenario

Crops and forests are already responding to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperatures. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance plant photosynthesis. Nevertheless, after long-term exposure, plants acclimate and show a reduction in photosynthetic activity (i.e. down-regulation). If in the future the Earth"s temperature is allowed to rise further, plant ecosystems and food security will both face significant threats. The scientific community has recognized that an increase in global temperatures should remain below 2°C in order to combat climate change. All this evidence suggests that, in parallel with reductions in CO2 emissions, a more direct approach to mitigate global warming should be considered. We propose here that global warming could be partially mitigated directly through local bio-geoengineering approaches. For example, this could be done through the management of solar radiation at surface level, i.e. by increasing global albedo. Such an effect has been documented in the south-eastern part of Spain, where a significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3°C per decade has been observed due to a dramatic expansion of greenhouse horticulture.

Estimativa da radiação global incidente em superfícies inclinadas por modelos isotrópicos e índice de claridade

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de modelos isotrópicos de estimativa do total de radiação incidente em superfícies inclinadas e propor estimativas com base nas correlações entre os índices de claridade horizontais e inclinados, em diferentes condições de cobertura de céu, em Botucatu, SP. Foram avaliadas superfícies com inclinação de 12,85º, 22,85º e 32,85º, pelos modelos isotrópicos propostos por Liu & Jordan, Revfeim, Jimenez & Castro, Koronakis, a teoria Circunsolar, e a correlação entre os índices de claridade horizontais e inclinados, para diferentes condições de cobertura de céu. O banco de dados de radiação global utilizado corresponde ao período de 1998 a 2007, com intervalos de 4/1998 a 8/2001 para a inclinação de 22,85º, de 9/2001 a 2/2003 para 12,85º e de 1/2004 a 12/2007 para 32,85º. O desempenho dos modelos foi avaliado pelos indicadores estatísticos erro absoluto médio, raiz quadrada do quadrado médio do erro e índice "d" de Wilmott. Os modelos de Liu & Jordan, Koronakis e de Revfeim apresentaram os melhores desempenhos em dias nublados, em todas as inclinações. As coberturas de céu parcialmente difuso e parcialmente aberto, nos maiores ângulos de inclinação, apresentaram as maiores dispersões entre valores estimados e medidos, independentemente do modelo. As equações estatísticas apresentaram bons resultados em aplicações com agrupamentos de dados mensais.

Global DNA hypomethylation coupled to repressive chromatin domain formation and gene silencing in breast cancer.

While genetic mutation is a hallmark of cancer, many cancers also acquire epigenetic alterations during tumorigenesis including aberrant DNA hypermethylation of tumor suppressors, as well as changes in chromatin modifications as caused by genetic mutations of the chromatin-modifying machinery. However, the extent of epigenetic alterations in cancer cells has not been fully characterized. Here, we describe complete methylome maps at single nucleotide resolution of a low-passage breast cancer cell line and primary human mammary epithelial cells. We find widespread DNA hypomethylation in the cancer cell, primarily at partially methylated domains (PMDs) in normal breast cells. Unexpectedly, genes within these regions are largely silenced in cancer cells. The loss of DNA methylation in these regions is accompanied by formation of repressive chromatin, with a significant fraction displaying allelic DNA methylation where one allele is DNA methylated while the other allele is occupied by histone modifications H3K9me3 or H3K27me3. Our results show a mutually exclusive relationship between DNA methylation and H3K9me3 or H3K27me3. These results suggest that global DNA hypomethylation in breast cancer is tightly linked to the formation of repressive chromatin domains and gene silencing, thus identifying a potential epigenetic pathway for gene regulation in cancer cells.

Creació i destrucció de la primera bombolla immobiliària global

El factor clau per a la creació de la primera bombolla immobiliària va ser l"existència d"una gran liquiditat a nivell mundial entre el 2001 i el 2005. En alguns països, aquest període es va allargar fins a l"agost del 2007. La liquiditat va ser generada per uns tipus d"interès històricament molt reduïts i per unes condicions de finançament pràcticament immillorables. Entre el 2006 i el 2008 les diverses bombolles immobiliàries van explotar. L"esclat va ser conseqüència de la combinació de dos aspectes: un sobtat canvi en les condicions de finançament hipotecari per l"extensió a nivell mundial de les crisis de les hipoteques subprime dels Estats Units, i un gran excés d"oferta d"habitatges en alguns països.

A global view of cross-border migration

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitativemulti-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data.Our framework features cross-country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances,and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels ofmigration to a no-migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that receiveda lot of migration -such as Canada or Australia- are better o due to greater product varietyavailable in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run the impact of migrationon average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled nativestend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries withlarge emigration flows -such as Jamaica or El Salvador- are also better off due to migration,but for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration issubstantial, at about 5 to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries withlarge incoming remittances. Our results are robust to accounting for imperfect transferabilityof skills, selection into migration, and imperfect substitution between natives and immigrants.

Identification of neuronal network properties from the spectral analysis of calcium imaging signals in neuronal cultures

Neuronal networks in vitro are prominent systems to study the development of connections in living neuronal networks and the interplay between connectivity, activity and function. These cultured networks show a rich spontaneous activity that evolves concurrently with the connectivity of the underlying network. In this work we monitor the development of neuronal cultures, and record their activity using calcium fluorescence imaging. We use spectral analysis to characterize global dynamical and structural traits of the neuronal cultures. We first observe that the power spectrum can be used as a signature of the state of the network, for instance when inhibition is active or silent, as well as a measure of the network's connectivity strength. Second, the power spectrum identifies prominent developmental changes in the network such as GABAA switch. And third, the analysis of the spatial distribution of the spectral density, in experiments with a controlled disintegration of the network through CNQX, an AMPA-glutamate receptor antagonist in excitatory neurons, reveals the existence of communities of strongly connected, highly active neurons that display synchronous oscillations. Our work illustrates the interest of spectral analysis for the study of in vitro networks, and its potential use as a network-state indicator, for instance to compare healthy and diseased neuronal networks.

Recent patterns in gastric cancer: a global overview.

Until the mid-1990s, gastric cancer has been the first cause of cancer death worldwide, although rates had been declining for several decades and gastric cancer has become a relatively rare cancer in North America and in most Northern and Western Europe, but not in Eastern Europe, Russia and selected areas of Central and South America or East Asia. We analyzed gastric cancer mortality in Europe and other areas of the world from 1980 to 2005 using joinpoint regression analysis, and provided updated site-specific incidence rates from 51 selected registries. Over the last decade, the annual percent change (APC) in mortality rate was around -3, -4% for the major European countries. The APC were similar for the Republic of Korea (APC = -4.3%), Australia (-3.7%), the USA (-3.6%), Japan (-3.5%), Ukraine (-3%) and the Russian Federation (-2.8%). In Latin America, the decline was less marked, but constant with APC around -1.6% in Chile and Brazil, -2.3% in Argentina and Mexico and -2.6% in Colombia. Cancers in the fundus and pylorus are more common in high incidence and mortality areas and have been declining more than cardia gastric cancer. Steady downward trends persist in gastric cancer mortality worldwide even in middle aged population, and hence further appreciable declines are likely in the near future.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.