Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs (Global Circulation Models) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961–2000 and for the 2161–2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs (Regional Climate Models) analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature several inconsistencies and cannot be used as a verification benchmark for the hydrological cycle in the Danubian region. In the scenario runs, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. Moreover, in several cases we find that qualitatively different behaviors emerge among the models: the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of average model, and often it falls between the models’ clusters.

Progressive palaeoenvironmental change during the Late Barremian-Early Aptian as prelude to Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a: Evidence from the Gorgo a Cerbara section (Umbria-Marche basin, central Italy)

During Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE 1a, 120 Ma; Li et al., 2008), organic carbon-rich layers were deposited in marine environments under anoxic conditions on a global scale. In this study, palaeoenvironmental conditions leading to this event are characterised by studying the Upper Barremian to the Lower Aptian succession of the Gorgo a Cerbara section (central Italy). For this, an integrated multi-proxy approach (δ13Ccarb; δ13Corg; δ18O; phosphorus; Total Organic Carbon, TOC; bulk-rock mineralogy, as well as redox-sensitive trace elements — RSTEs) has been applied. During the LateBarremian, thin organic-rich layers occur episodically, and associated Corg:Ptot ratios indicate the presence of intermittent dysoxic to anoxic conditions. Coarse correlations are observed between TOC, P and biogenic silica contents, indicating links between P availability, productivity, and TOC preservation. However, the corresponding δ13Ccarb and δ18O records remain quite stable, indicating that these brief periods of enhanced TOC preservation did not have sufficient impact on the marine carbon reservoir to deviate δ13C records. Around the Barremian–Aptian boundary, TOC-enriched layers become more frequent. These layers correlate with negative excursions in the δ13Ccarb and δ13Corg records, possibly due to a warming period as indicated by the δ18O record. During the earliest Aptian, this warming trend is reverted into a cooling trend, which is then followed by an important warming step near the onset of Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE 1a). During this time period, organic-rich intervals occur, which are characterised by the progressive increase in RSTE. The warming step prior the onset of OAE 1a is associated with the well-known negative spike in δ13Ccarb and δ13Corg records, an important peak in P accumulation, RSTE enrichments and Corg:Ptot ratios indicating the prevalence of anoxic conditions. The Selli Level itself may document a cooling phase. RSTE enrichments and Corg:Ptot ratios confirm the importance of anoxic conditions during OAE 1a at this site. The Gorgo a Cerbara section is interpreted to reflect the progressive impact of palaeoenvironmental change related to the formation of the Ontong-Java plate-basalt plateau, which started already around the Barremian–Aptian boundary and culminated into OAE 1a.

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes

'The debatable territory where geology and archaeology meet': reassessing the early archaeobotanical work of Clement Reid and Arthur Lyell at Roman Silchester

The first large-scale archaeobotanical study in Britain, conducted from 1899 to 1909 by Clement Reid and Arthur Lyell at Silchester, provided the first evidence for the introduction of Roman plant foods to Britain, yet the findings have thus far remained unverified. This paper presents a reassessment of these archaeobotanical remains, now stored as part of the Silchester Collection in Reading Museum. The documentary evidence for the Silchester study is summarised, before the results are presented for over a 1000 plant remains including an assessment of preservation, identification and modern contamination. The dataset includes both evidence for the presence of nationally rare plant foods, such as medlar, and several archaeophytes. The methodologies and original interpretations of Reid and Lyell’s study are reassessed in light of current archaeobotanical knowledge. Spatial and contextual patterns in the distribution of plant foods and ornamental taxa are also explored. Finally, the legacy of the study for the development of archaeobotany in the 20th century is evaluated.

A Lagrangian identification of major sources of moisture over Central Brazil and La Plata Basin

[1] This work examines the main sources of moisture over Central Brazil and La Plata Basin during the year through a new Lagrangian diagnosis method which identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region. This methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along back-trajectories for the previous 10 d. The origin of all air masses residing over each region was tracked during a period of 5 years (2000-2004). These regions were selected because they coincide with two centers of action of a known dipole precipitation variability mode observed in different temporal scales (from intra seasonal up to inter decadal timescales) and are related to the climatic variability of the South American Monsoon System. The results suggested the importance of the tropical south Atlantic as a moisture source for Central Brazil, and of recycling for La Plata basin. It seems that the Tropical South Atlantic plays an important role as a moisture source for Central Brazil and La Plata basin along the year, particularly during the austral summer. The north Atlantic is also an additional source for both regions during the austral summer.

Paleomagnetism and rock magnetism of the Neoproterozoic Itajai Basin of the Rio de la Plata craton (Brazil): Cambrian to Cretaceous widespread remagnetizations of South America

A detailed rock magnetic and paleomagnetic study was performed on samples from the Neoproterozoic Itajai Basin in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, in order to better constrain the paleogeographic evolution of the Rio de la Plata craton between 600 and 550 Ma. However, rock magnetic properties typical of remagnetized rocks and negative response in the fold test indicated that these rocks carried a secondary chemical remanent magnetization. After detailed AF and thermal cleaning, almost all samples showed a normal polarity characteristic remanent magnetization component close to the present geomagnetic field. The main magnetic carriers are magnetite and hematite, probably of authigenic origin. The mean paleomagnetic pole of the ltajai Basin is located at Plat= -84 degrees, Plong = 97.5 degrees (A95 = 2 degrees) and overlaps the lower Cretaceous segment of the apparent polar wander path of South America, suggesting a cause and effect with the opening of the South Atlantic Ocean. A compilation of remagnetized paleomagnetic poles from South America is presented that highlights the superposition of several large-scale remagnetization events between the Cambrian and the Cretaceous. It is suggested that some paleomagnetic poles used to calibrate the APWP of Gondwana at Precambrian times need to be revised; the indication of remagnetized areas in southern South America may offer some help in the selection of sites for future paleomagnetic investigations in Precambrian rocks. (C) 2011 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

(40)Ar/(39)Ar ages and Sr-Nd-Pb-Os geochemistry of CAMP tholeiites from Western Maranhao basin (NE Brazil)

The Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), emplaced at the Triassic-Jurassic (T-J) boundary (-200 Ma), is among the largest igneous provinces on Earth. The Maranhao basin in NE Brazil is located around 700 km inland and 2000 km from the site of the earliest Pangea disruption. The CAMP tholeiites occur only in the western part of the basin and have been described as low and high-Ti. Here we document the occurrence of two sub-groups among the high-Ti tholeiites in the Western Maranhao basin. The major and trace elements and the Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic ratios define three chemical groups corresponding to the low-Ti (TiO(2)< 1.3 wt.%), high-Ti (TiO(2)-2.0 wt.%) and evolved high-Ti (TiO(2 >)3 wt.%) western Maranhao basin tholeiites (WMBT). The new (40)Ar/(39)Ar plateau ages obtained on plagioclase separates for high-Ti (199.7 +/- 2.4 Ma) and evolved high-Ti WMBT (197.2 +/- 0.5 Ma and 198.2 +/- 0.6 Ma) are indistinguishable and identical to those of previously analyzed low-Ti WMBT (198.5 +/- 0.8 Ma) and to the mean (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of the CAMP (199 +/- 2.4 Ma). We also present the first Re-Os isotopic data for CAMP basalts. The low and high-Ti samples display mantle-like initial ((187)Os/(188)Os)(i) ranging from 0.1267 to 0.1299, while the evolved high-Ti samples are more radiogenic (((187)Os/ (188)Os)(i) up to 0.184) We propose that the high-Ti WMBT were derived from the sub-lithospheric asthenosphere, and contaminated during ascent by interaction with the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). The evolved high-Ti WMBT were derived from the same asthenospheric source but experienced crustal contamination. The chemical characteristics of the low-Ti group can be explained by partial melting of the most fertile portions of the SCLM metasomatized during paleo-subduction. Alternatively, the low-Ti WMBT could be derived from the sub-lithospheric asthenosphere but the resulting melts may have undergone contamination by the SCLM. The occurrences of high-Ti basalts are apparently not restricted to the area of initial continental disruption which may bring into question previous interpretations such as those relating high-Ti CAMP magmatism to the initiation of Atlantic ridge spreading or as the expression of a deep mantle plume. We propose that the CAMP magmatism in the Maranhao basin may be attributed to local hotter mantle conditions due to the combined effects of edge-driven convection and large-scale mantle warming under the Pangea supercontinent. The involvement of a mantle-plume with asthenosphere-like isotopic characteristics cannot be ruled out either as one of the main source components of the WMBT or as a heat supplier. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

Seismic activity triggered by water wells in the Parana Basin, Brazil

Triggered seismicity is commonly associated with deep water reservoirs or injection wells where water is injected at high pressure into the reservoir rock. However, earth tremors related solely to the opening of groundwater wells are extremely rare. Here we present a clear case of seismicity induced by pore-pressure changes following the drilling of water wells that exploit a confined aquifer in the intracratonic Parana Basin of southeastern Brazil. Since 2004, shallow seismic activity, with magnitudes up to 2.9 and intensities V MM, has been observed near deep wells (120-200 m) that were drilled in early 2003 near the town of Bebedouro. The wells were drilled for irrigation purposes, cross a sandstone layer about 60-80 m thick and extract water from a confined aquifer in fractured zones between basalt flow layers. Seismic activity, mainly event swarms, has occurred yearly since 2004, mostly during the rainy season when the wells are not pumped. During the dry season when the wells are pumped almost continuously, the activity is very low. A seismographic network, installed in March 2005, has located more than 2000 microearthquakes. The events are less than 1 km deep (mostly within the 0.5 km thick basalt layer) and cover an area roughly 1.5 km x 5 km across. The seismicity generally starts in a small area and expands to larger distances with an equivalent hydraulic diffusivity ranging from 0.06 to 0.6 m(2)/s. Geophysical and geothermal logging of several wells in the area showed that water from the shallow sandstone aquifer enters the well at the top and usually forms waterfalls. The waterfalls flow down the sides of the wells and feed the confined, fractured aquifer in the basalt layer at the bottom. Two seismic areas are observed: the main area surrounds several wells that are pumped continuously during the dry season, and a second area near another well (about 10 km from the first area) that is not used for irrigation and not pumped regularly. The main area displays cyclic annual activity, but the second area does not. We explain the earthquake swarms as being triggered by pore pressure diffusion in the fractured basalt layer due to additional pressure from the newly connected surface aquifer. This reaches critically prestressed areas up to a few kilometers away from the wells. During periods of continuous pumping, the reduction of pore pressure in the confined aquifer stops the seismic activity. Our study suggests that this kind of activity may be more common than previously thought and implies that many other cases of small tremors associated with the drilling of water wells may have gone unnoticed.

Intraplate earthquake swarm in Belo Jardim, NE Brazil: reactivation of a major Neoproterozoic shear zone (Pernambuco Lineament)

Intraplate earthquakes in stable continental areas have been explained basically by reactivation of pre-existing zones of weakness, stress concentration, or both. Zones of weakness are usually identified as sites of the last major orogeny, provinces of recent alkaline intrusions, or stretched crust in ancient rifts. However, it is difficult to identify specific zones of weakness and intraplate fault zones are not always easily correlated with known geological features. Although Northeastern Brazil is one of the most seismically active areas in the country (magnitudes 5 roughly every 5 yr), with hypocentral depths shallower than similar to 10 km and seismic zones as long as 30-40 km, no clear relationship with the known surface geology can be usually established with confidence, and a clear identification of zones of weakness has not yet been possible. Here we present the first clear case of seismic activity occurring as reactivation of an old structure in Brazil: the Pernambuco Lineament, a major Neoproterozoic shear zone. The 2004 earthquake swarm of Belo Jardim (magnitudes up to 3.1) and the recurrent activities in the nearby towns of Sao Caetano and Caruaru (magnitudes up to 4.0 and 3.8), show that the Pernambuco Lineament is a weak zone. A local seismic network showed that the Belo Jardim swarm of 2004 November occurred by normal faulting on a North dipping, E-W oriented fault plane in close agreement with the E-W trending structures within the Pernambuco Lineament. The Belo Jardim activity was concentrated in a 1.5 km (E-W) by 2 km (downdip) fault area, and average depth of 4.5 km. The nearby Caruaru activity occurs as both strike-slip and normal faulting, also consistent with local structures of the Pernambuco Lineament. The focal mechanisms of Belo Jardim, Caruaru and S. Caetano, indicate E-W compressional and N-S extensional principal stresses. The NS extension of this stress field is larger than that predicted by numerical models such as those of Coblentz & Richardson and we propose that additional factors such as flexural stresses from the nearby Sergipe-Alagoas marginal basin could also affect the current stress field in the Pernambuco Lineament.

Spectral analysis and modeling of microcyclostratigraphy in late Paleozoic glaciogenic rhythmites, Parana Basin, Brazil

We investigate the depositional time scale of lithological couplets (fine sandstone/siltstone-siltstone/mudstone) from two distinctive outcrops of Permo-Carboniferous glacial rhythmites in the Itarare Group (Parana Basin, Brazil). Resolving the fundamental issue of time scale for these rhythmites is important in light of recent evidence for paleosecular variation measured in these sequences. Spectral analysis and tuning of high-resolution gray scale scans of sediment core microstratigraphy, which comprises pervasive laminations, reveal a comparable spectral content at both localities, with a frequency suite interpreted as that of short-term climate variability of Recent and modern times. This evidence for decadal- to centennial-scale deposition of these lithological couplets is discussed in light of the `varvic` character, i.e., annual time scale that was previously assumed for the rhythmites.