Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Fine-scale spatial genetic correlation analyses reveal strong female philopatry within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby colony in southeast Queensland

We combine spatial data on home ranges of individuals and microsatellite markers to examine patterns of fine-scale spatial genetic structure and dispersal within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) colony at Hurdle Creek Valley, Queensland. Brush-tailed rock-wallabies were once abundant and widespread throughout the rocky terrain of southeastern Australia; however, populations are nearly extinct in the south of their range and in decline elsewhere. We use pairwise relatedness measures and a recent multilocus spatial autocorrelation analysis to test the hypotheses that in this species, within-colony dispersal is male-biased and that female philopatry results in spatial clusters of related females within the colony. We provide clear evidence for strong female philopatry and male-biased dispersal within this rock-wallaby colony. There was a strong, significant negative correlation between pairwise relatedness and geographical distance of individual females along only 800 m of cliff line. Spatial genetic autocorrelation analyses showed significant positive correlation for females in close proximity to each other and revealed a genetic neighbourhood size of only 600 m for females. Our study is the first to report on the fine-scale spatial genetic structure within a rock-wallaby colony and we provide the first robust evidence for strong female philopatry and spatial clustering of related females within this taxon. We discuss the ecological and conservation implications of our findings for rock-wallabies, as well as the importance of fine-scale spatial genetic patterns in studies of dispersal behaviour.

An investigation into effects of long-distance seed dispersal on organelle population genetic structure and colonization rate: a model analysis

A simulation-based modelling approach is used to examine the effects of stratified seed dispersal (representing the distribution of the majority of dispersal around the maternal parent and also rare long-distance dispersal) on the genetic structure of maternally inherited genomes and the colonization rate of expanding plant populations. The model is parameterized to approximate postglacial oak colonization in the UK, but is relevant to plant populations that exhibit stratified seed dispersal. The modelling approach considers the colonization of individual plants over a large area (three 500 km x 10 km rolled transects are used to approximate a 500 km x 300 km area). Our approach shows how the interaction of plant population dynamics with stratified dispersal can result in a spatially patchy haplotype structure. We show that while both colonization speeds and the resulting genetic structure are influenced by the characteristics of the dispersal kernel, they are robust to changes in the periodicity of long-distance events, provided the average number of long-distance dispersal events remains constant. We also consider the effects of additional physical and environmental mechanisms on plant colonization. Results show significant changes in genetic structure when the initial colonization of different haplotypes is staggered over time and when a barrier to colonization is introduced. Environmental influences on survivorship and fecundity affect both the genetic structure and the speed of colonization. The importance of these mechanisms in relation to the postglacial spread and genetic structure of oak in the UK is discussed.

Case-only study of interactions between genetic polymorphisms of GSTM1, P1, T1 and Z1 and smoking in Parkinson's disease

Current opinion contends that complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors play a role in the etiology of Parkinson's disease (PD). Cigarette smoking is thought to reduce risk of PD, and emerging evidence suggests that genetic factors may modulate smoking's effect. We used a case-only design, an approach not previously used to study gene-environment interactions in PD, specifically to study interactions between glutathione-S-transferase (GST) gene polymorphisms and smoking in relation to PD. Four-hundred PD cases (age at onset: 60.0 +/- 10.7 years) were genotyped for common polymorphisms in GSTM1, PI, T1 and Z1 using well-established methods. Smoking exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. The independence of the studied GST genotypes and smoking exposure was confirmed by studying 402 healthy, aged individuals. No differences were observed in the distributions of GSTM1, T1 or Z1 polymorphisms between ever-smoked and never-smoked PD cases using logistic regression (all P > 0.43). However, GSTP1 *C haplotypes were over-represented among PD cases who ever smoked (odds ratio for interaction (ORi) = 2.00 (95% Cl: 1.11-3.60, P = 0.03)). Analysis revealed that ORi between smoking and the GSTP1-114Val carrier status increased with increasing smoking dose (P = 0.02 for trend). These data suggest that one or more GSTP1 polymorphisms may interact with cigarette smoking to influence the risk for PD. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic effects on alcohol dependence risk: re-evaluating the importance of psychiatric and other heritable risk factors

Background. Genetic influences have been shown to play a major role in determining the risk of alcohol dependence (AD) in both women and men; however, little attention has been directed to identifying the major sources of genetic variation in AD risk. Method. Diagnostic telephone interview data from young adult Australian twin pairs born between 1964 and 1971 were analyzed. Cox regression models were fitted to interview data from a total of 2708 complete twin pairs (690 MZ female, 485 MZ male, 500 DZ female, 384 DZ male, and 649 DZ female/male pairs). Structural equation models were fitted to determine the extent of residual genetic and environmental influences on AD risk while controlling for effects of sociodemographic and psychiatric predictors on risk. Results. Risk of AD was increased in males, in Roman Catholics, in those reporting a history of major depression, social anxiety problems, and conduct disorder, or (in females only) a history of suicide attempt and childhood sexual abuse; but was decreased in those reporting Baptist, Methodist, or Orthodox religion, in those who reported weekly church attendance, and in university-educated males. After allowing for the effects of sociodemographic and psychiatric predictors, 47 % (95 % CI 28-55) of the residual variance in alcoholism risk was attributable to additive genetic effects, 0 % (95 % CI 0-14) to shared environmental factors, and 53 % (95 % CI 45-63) to non-shared environmental influences. Conclusions. Controlling for other risk factors, substantial residual heritability of AD was observed, suggesting that psychiatric and other risk factors play a minor role in the inheritance of AD.

The effects of habitat fragmentation due to forestry plantation establishment on the demography and genetic variation of a marsupial carnivore, Antechinus agilis

We conducted a demographic and genetic study to investigate the effects of fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on populations of a small marsupial carnivore, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), and the factors influencing the persistence of those populations in the fragmented habitat. The first aspect of the study was a descriptive analysis of patch occupancy and population size, in which we found a patch occupancy rate of 70% among 23 sites in the fragmented habitat compared to 100% among 48 sites with the same habitat characteristics in unfragmented habitat. Mark-recapture analyses yielded most-likely population size estimates of between 3 and 85 among the 16 occupied patches in the fragmented habitat. Hierarchical partitioning and model selection were used to identify geographic and habitat-related characteristics that influence patch occupancy and population size. Patch occupancy was primarily influenced by geographic isolation and habitat quality (vegetation basal area). The variance in population size among occupied sites was influenced primarily by forest type (dominant Eucalyptus species) and, to a lesser extent, by patch area and topographic context (gully sites had larger populations). A comparison of the sex ratios between the samples from the two habitat contexts revealed a significant deficiency of males in the fragmented habitat. We hypothesise that this is due to male-biased dispersal in an environment with increased dispersal-associated mortality. The population size and sex ratio data were incorporated into a simulation study to estimate the proportion of genetic diversity that would have been lost over the known timescale since fragmentation if the patch populations had been totally isolated. The observed difference in genetic diversity (gene diversity and allelic richness at microsatellite and mitochondrial markers) between 16 fragmented and 12 unfragmented sites was extremely low and inconsistent with the isolation of the patch populations. Our results show that although the remnant habitat patches comprise approximately 2% of the study area, they can support non-isolated populations. However, the distribution of agile antechinus populations in the fragmented system is dependent on habitat quality and patch connectivity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trait physiology and crop modelling as a framework to link phenotypic complexity to underlying genetic systems

New tools derived from advances in molecular biology have not been widely adopted in plant breeding for complex traits because of the inability to connect information at gene level to the phenotype in a manner that is useful for selection. In this study, we explored whether physiological dissection and integrative modelling of complex traits could link phenotype complexity to underlying genetic systems in a way that enhanced the power of molecular breeding strategies. A crop and breeding system simulation study on sorghum, which involved variation in 4 key adaptive traits-phenology, osmotic adjustment, transpiration efficiency, stay-green-and a broad range of production environments in north-eastern Australia, was used. The full matrix of simulated phenotypes, which consisted of 547 location-season combinations and 4235 genotypic expression states, was analysed for genetic and environmental effects. The analysis was conducted in stages assuming gradually increased understanding of gene-to-phenotype relationships, which would arise from physiological dissection and modelling. It was found that environmental characterisation and physiological knowledge helped to explain and unravel gene and environment context dependencies in the data. Based on the analyses of gene effects, a range of marker-assisted selection breeding strategies was simulated. It was shown that the inclusion of knowledge resulting from trait physiology and modelling generated an enhanced rate of yield advance over cycles of selection. This occurred because the knowledge associated with component trait physiology and extrapolation to the target population of environments by modelling removed confounding effects associated with environment and gene context dependencies for the markers used. Developing and implementing this gene-to-phenotype capability in crop improvement requires enhanced attention to phenotyping, ecophysiological modelling, and validation studies to test the stability of candidate genetic regions.

Optimal sampling strategy for estimation of spatial genetic structure in tree populations

Fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) in natural tree populations is largely a result of restricted pollen and seed dispersal. Understanding the link between limitations to dispersal in gene vectors and SGS is of key interest to biologists and the availability of highly variable molecular markers has facilitated fine-scale analysis of populations. However, estimation of SGS may depend strongly on the type of genetic marker and sampling strategy (of both loci and individuals). To explore sampling limits, we created a model population with simulated distributions of dominant and codominant alleles, resulting from natural regeneration with restricted gene flow. SGS estimates from subsamples (simulating collection and analysis with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and microsatellite markers) were correlated with the 'real' estimate (from the full model population). For both marker types, sampling ranges were evident, with lower limits below which estimation was poorly correlated and upper limits above which sampling became inefficient. Lower limits (correlation of 0.9) were 100 individuals, 10 loci for microsatellites and 150 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. Upper limits were 200 individuals, five loci for microsatellites and 200 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. The limits indicated by simulation were compared with data sets from real species. Instances where sampling effort had been either insufficient or inefficient were identified. The model results should form practical boundaries for studies aiming to detect SGS. However, greater sample sizes will be required in cases where SGS is weaker than for our simulated population, for example, in species with effective pollen/seed dispersal mechanisms.

Lack of association between genetic markers on chromosome 16q22-Q24 and type 1 diabetes in Russian affected families

Aim To evaluate whether the T1D susceptibility locus on chromosome 16q contributes to the genetic susceptibility to T1D in Russian patients. Method Thirteen microsatellite markers, spanning a 47-centimorgan genomic region on 16q22-q24 were evaluated for linkage to T1D in 98 Russian multiplex families. Multipoint logarithm of odds (LOD) ratio (MLS) and nonparametric LOD (NPL) values were computed for each marker, using GENEHUNTER 2.1 software. Four microsatellites (D16S422, D16S504, D16S3037, and D16S3098) and 6 biallelic markers in 2 positional candidate genes, ICSBP1 and NQO1, were additionally tested for association with T1D in 114 simplex families, using transmission disequilibrium test (TDT). Results A peak of linkage (MLS = 1.35, NPL = 0.91) was shown for marker D16S750, but this was not significant (P = 0.18). The subsequent linkage analysis in the subset of 46 multiplex families carrying a common risk HLA-DR4 haplotype increased peak MLS and NPL values to 1.77 and 1.22, respectively, but showed no significant linkage (P = 0.11) to T1D in the 16q22-q24 genomic region. TDT analysis failed to find significant association between these markers and disease, even after the conditioning for the predisposing HLA-DR4 haplotype. Conclusion Our results did not support the evidence for the susceptibility locus to T1D on chromosome 16q22-24 in the Russian family data set. The lack of association could reflect genetic heterogeneity of type 1 diabetes in diverse ethnic groups.

Analysis of population pharmacokinetic data using NONMEM and WinBUGS

The aim of this report is to describe the use of WinBUGS for two datasets that arise from typical population pharmacokinetic studies. The first dataset relates to gentamicin concentration-time data that arose as part of routine clinical care of 55 neonates. The second dataset incorporated data from 96 patients receiving enoxaparin. Both datasets were originally analyzed by using NONMEM. In the first instance, although NONMEM provided reasonable estimates of the fixed effects parameters it was unable to provide satisfactory estimates of the between-subject variance. In the second instance, the use of NONMEM resulted in the development of a successful model, albeit with limited available information on the between-subject variability of the pharmacokinetic parameters. WinBUGS was used to develop a model for both of these datasets. Model comparison for the enoxaparin dataset was performed by using the posterior distribution of the log-likelihood and a posterior predictive check. The use of WinBUGS supported the same structural models tried in NONMEM. For the gentamicin dataset a one-compartment model with intravenous infusion was developed, and the population parameters including the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix were available. Analysis of the enoxaparin dataset supported a two compartment model as superior to the one-compartment model, based on the posterior predictive check. Again, the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix parameters were available. Fully Bayesian approaches using MCMC methods, via WinBUGS, can offer added value for analysis of population pharmacokinetic data.

Assessing moth migration and population structuring in Helicoverpa annigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) at the regional scale: Example from the Darling Downs, Australia

Analysis of gene flow and migration of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) in a major cropping region of Australia identified substantial genetic structuring, migration events, and significant population genotype changes over the 38-mo sample period from November 1999 to January 2003. Five highly variable microsatellite markers were used to analyze 916 individuals from 77 collections across 10 localities in the Darling Downs. The molecular data indicate that in some years (e.g., April 2002-March 2003), low levels of H. armigera migration and high differentiation between populations occurred, whereas in other years (e.g., April 2001-March 2002), there were higher levels of adult moth movement resulting in little local structuring of populations. Analysis of populations in other Australian cropping regions provided insight into the quantity and direction of immigration of H. armigera adults into the Darling Downs growing region of Australia. These data provide evidence adult moth movement differs from season to season, highlighting the importance of studies in groups such as the Lepidoptera extending over consecutive years, because short-term sampling may be misleading when population dynamics and migration change so significantly. This research demonstrates the importance of maintaining a coordinated insecticide resistance management strategy, because in some years H. armigera populations may be independent within a region and thus significantly influenced by local management practices; however, periods with high migration will occur and resistance may rapidly spread.

Characterization of two polymorphisms in the leukotriene C4 synthase gene in an Australian population of subjects with mild, moderate, and severe asthma

Background: The cysteinyl-leukotrienes (cys-LTs) are proinflammatory mediators that are important in the pathophysiology of asthma. LTC4 synthase is a key enzyme in the cys-LT biosynthetic pathway, and studies in small populations have suggested that a promoter polymorphism (A(-444)C) in the gene might be associated with asthma severity and aspirin intolerance. Objective: We sought to screen the LTC4 synthase gene for polymorphisms and to determine whether there is an association between these polymorphisms and asthma severity or aspirin sensitivity in a large, well-phenotyped population and to determine whether this polymorphism is functionally relevant. Methods: The coding regions of the LTC4 synthase gene were screened for polymorphisms and the A(-444)C polymorphism was analyzed in a large Australian white adult population of mild (n = 282), moderate (n = 236), and severe asthmatic subjects (n = 86) and nonasthmatic subjects (n = 458), as well as in aspirin-intolerant asthmatic subjects (n = 67). The functional activity of the promoter polymorphism was investigated by transient transfection of HL-60 cells with a promoter construct. Results: A new polymorphism was identified in intron 1 of the gene (IVS1-10c>a) but was not associated with asthma. Association studies showed that the A(-444)C polymorphism was weakly associated with asthma per se, but there was no association between the C-444 allele and chronic asthma severity or aspirin intolerance. A meta-analysis of all the genetic studies conducted to date found significant between-study heterogeneity in C-444 allele frequencies within different clinical subgroups. In vitro functional studies showed no significant differences in transcription efficiency between constructs containing the A(-444) allele or the C-444 allele. Conclusions: Our data confirm that, independent of transcriptional activity, the C-444 allele in the LTC4 synthase gene is weakly associated with the asthma phenotype, but it is not related to disease severity or aspirin intolerance.

A framework for the study of genetic variation in migratory behaviour

Evolutionary change results from selection acting on genetic variation. For migration to be successful, many different aspects of an animal's physiology and behaviour need to function in a co-coordinated way. Changes in one migratory trait are therefore likely to be accompanied by changes in other migratory and life-history traits. At present, we have some knowledge of the pressures that operate at the various stages of migration, but we know very little about the extent of genetic variation in various aspects of the migratory syndrome. As a consequence, our ability to predict which species is capable of what kind of evolutionary change, and at which rate, is limited. Here, we review how our evolutionary understanding of migration may benefit from taking a quantitative-genetic approach and present a framework for studying the causes of phenotypic variation. We review past research, that has mainly studied single migratory traits in captive birds, and discuss how this work could be extended to study genetic variation in the wild and to account for genetic correlations and correlated selection. In the future, reaction-norm approaches may become very important, as they allow the study of genetic and environmental effects on phenotypic expression within a single framework, as well as of their interactions. We advocate making more use of repeated measurements on single individuals to study the causes of among-individual variation in the wild, as they are easier to obtain than data on relatives and can provide valuable information for identifying and selecting traits. This approach will be particularly informative if it involves systematic testing of individuals under different environmental conditions. We propose extending this research agenda by using optimality models to predict levels of variation and covariation among traits and constraints. This may help us to select traits in which we might expect genetic variation, and to identify the most informative environmental axes. We also recommend an expansion of the passerine model, as this model does not apply to birds, like geese, where cultural transmission of spatio-temporal information is an important determinant of migration patterns and their variation.

Genetic diversity of Australian Fusarium graminearum and F-pseudograminearum

Genotypic diversity in Fusarium pseudograminearum and F. graminearum from Australia and the relationship between diversity and pathogen aggressiveness for head blight and/or crown rot of wheat were examined. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis revealed a high level of genotypic diversity within each species. Sixty-three of the 149 AFLP loci were significantly different between the two species and 70 of 72 F. pseudograminearum and 56 of 59 F. graminearum isolates had distinct haplotypes. When head blight and crown rot severity data from a recently published work on isolates representing the entire range of aggressiveness were used, only the genotypic diversity of F. pseudograminearum was significantly associated with its aggressiveness for the two diseases. Cluster analyses clearly demonstrated the polyphyletic structures that exist in both pathogen populations. The spatial diversity within F. graminearum was high within a single field, while frequent gene flow (N-m similar to 14) and a low fixation index (G(st) = 0.03) were recorded among F. pseudograminearum isolates from the adjacent states of New South Wales and Queensland. The differences in population structure between the heterothallic F. pseudograminearum (teleomorph G. coronicola) and the homothallic F. graminearum (teleomorph G. zeae) were not as pronounced as expected given their contrasting mating systems. Neither species was panmictic or strictly clonal. This points to sexual recombination in F. pseudograminearum, suggesting that ascospores of G. coronicola may also play a role in its biology and epidemiology.