Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory

This paper studies the electricity hourly load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the southeast of Brazil. We propose a stochastic model which employs generalized long memory (by means of Gegenbauer processes) to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The model is proposed for sectional data, that is, each hour’s load is studied separately as a single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile) displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA benchmark using the years of 1999 and 2000 as the out-of-sample. The model clearly outperforms the benchmark. We conclude for general long memory in the series.

Duas vertentes da ontogênese da linguagem no desenvolvimento cognitivo

Este estudo pretende trazer uma contribuição à discussão da relação linguagem-cognição, através do exame de um aspecto restrito do problema: a hipótese de uma base cognitiva para aquisição de linguagem. O modelo teórico piagetiano é analisado em sua explicação da ontogenese da linguagem como resultante das construções da inteligência sensório-motora. Alguns de seus aspectos são questionados, a possibilidade de sua explicitação em forma de hipótese verificável é examinada e a literatura é analisada em busca de evidências relevantes. A principal lacuna constatada é a visão de linguagem restrita a aspectos de desempenho, sendo levado em conta apenas o começo da emissão de palavras na quase totalidade das pesquisas. Ainda dentro de uma perspectiva construtivista, o esboço de um novo modelo teórico é proposto, incluindo a discussão da ontogenese da compreensão de linguagem. Hipóteses decorrentes da proposta teórica, especialmente a de início da possibilidade de tratar o signo linguístico antes do estágio VI, são formuladas e verificadas por pesquisa empírica. Esta inclui um estudo longitudinal e outro transversal do desenvolvimento linguístico e cognitivo de 45 crianças entre 8 e 18 meses. O desenvolvimento da compreensão é comparado em diversos aspectos ao da produção ou fala. Verifica-se que o primeiro começa mais cedo, é mais rápido e atinge um vocabulário maior e um nível mais complexo na faixa etária estudada. Há evidências ainda de diferenças no papel da imitação na construção do vocabulário nas duas vertentes. Observa-se um início de resposta mais generalizada e sistemática à linguagem a partir de nove meses, ocasião em que a criança se mostra capaz de coordenação de reações circulares secundárias e quando consegue reconstruir mentalmente um objeto invisível a partir de uma fração visível. Considera-se que esta resposta já envolve a decodificação de signos e a diferenciação significante-significado, numa etapa preliminar de um processo evolutivo que se entrelaça com a formação de conceitos. Os dados nao permitem a identificação de prê-requisitos cognitivos para aquisição de liguagem, mas dois aspectos podem ser destacados como correlatos do início do processo de compartilhar o signo linguístico: a possibilidade da criança compreender que tem um nome e responder a ele e uma intencionalidade primitiva. Os resultados apoiam as hipóteses formuladas e sugerem que as construções finais do período sensório-motor não são condições necessárias para aquisição de linguagem e que esta não ê consequência direta do desenvolvimento cognitivo. Novos estudos são necessários para suprir as limitações desta pesquisa e verificação das implicações decorrentes dos resultados obtidos.

An entry strategy with innovation and differentiation in Brazil and the United States

With the global rise of credit and debit card usage, acquirers play an increasingly important role within the payments industry by processing these types of payment transactions on behalf of merchants. This study focuses on examining two markets – Brazil and the United States – by providing an overview of the market dynamics, the state of the competitive landscape, and the role and impact of regulations and new technologies. In considering these factors, strategic recommendations are provided for new players interested in enter either market. Further, factors such as existing and future opportunities as well as risks are considered.

Impactos da política fiscal e tributária no crescimento econômico

Utilizando uma adaptação do modelo de Telles e Mussolini (2014), o presente trabalho busca discutir as caracterizações da matriz tributária, discutindo como as variações na matriz tributária podem impactar na política fiscal. Discute-se com base na diferenciação dos impostos em cinco grupos, a saber: impostos sobre salários, impostos sobre investimentos, impostos sobre consumo, impostos sobre renda e riqueza, e impostos sobre comércio internacional, a partir dos quais argumenta-se quais seus impactos para a política fiscal, para a interação das variáveis econômicas e a evolução destas variáveis, assim como a relação entre a preferência por uma determinada estrutura tributária e o endividamento de um país. Após a discussão teórica, faz-se uma análise descritiva da evolução destas variáveis tributárias para cada categoria de tributo, relacionando a sua evolução no tempo para um grupo de 64 países, tomados a partir do trabalho de Telles e Mussolini (2014), assim como relacionando a sua evolução intertemporal. Por fim, faz-se uma análise da estrutura tributária destes países, discutindo, na análise dos dados em painel, os resultados para as estimativas em modelos de efeitos fixos e efeitos aleatórios, os resultados da estimação pelo modelo Arellano-Bond, e utilizando-se a abordagem instrumental pelo Método Generalizado dos Momentos, onde se conclui que a taxação sobre a riqueza e a taxação sobre o comércio internacional com fins de financiar o excesso de gastos do governo impacta de forma negativa na trajetória de crescimento, entre outros resultados.

The not so generalized effects of nonreciprocal trade agreements

This dissertation uses an empirical gravity equation approach to study the relationship between nonreciprocal trade agreements (NRTAs) and members’ trade flows. Estimations relate bilateral imports to trade policy variables using a very comprehensive dataset with over fifty years of data. Results show that meager average trade effects exist only if members are excluded from the world trading system or if they are very poor. As trade flows between NRTA members are already rising before their creation, results also suggest a strong endogeneity concerning their formation. Moreover, estimations show that uncertainty and discretion tend to critically hinder NRTA’s performance. On the other hand, reciprocal trade agreements show the opposite pattern regardless of members’ income status.Encouraging developing countries’ openness to trade through reciprocal liberalization emerges consequently as a possible policy implication.

Multivariate analysis for the classification and differentiation of Madeira wines according to main grape varieties

In order to differentiate and characterize Madeira wines according to main grape varieties, the volatile composition (higher alcohols, fatty acids, ethyl esters and carbonyl compounds) was determined for 36 monovarietal Madeira wine samples elaborated from Boal, Malvazia, Sercial and Verdelho white grape varieties. The study was carried out by headspace solid-phase microextraction technique (HS-SPME), in dynamic mode, coupled with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS). Corrected peak area data for 42 analytes from the above mentioned chemical groups was used for statistical purposes. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied in order to determine the main sources of variability present in the data sets and to establish the relation between samples (objects) and volatile compounds (variables). The data obtained by GC–MS shows that the most important contributions to the differentiation of Boal wines are benzyl alcohol and (E)-hex-3-en-1-ol. Ethyl octadecanoate, (Z)-hex-3-en-1-ol and benzoic acid are the major contributions in Malvazia wines and 2-methylpropan-1-ol is associated to Sercial wines. Verdelho wines are most correlated with 5-(ethoxymethyl)-furfural, nonanone and cis-9-ethyldecenoate. A 96.4% of prediction ability was obtained by the application of stepwise linear discriminant analysis (SLDA) using the 19 variables that maximise the variance of the initial data set.

Effectiveness of different solid-phase microextraction fibres for differentiation of selected Madeira island fruits based on their volatile metabolite profile: identification of novel compounds

A headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) procedure based on five commercialised fibres (85 μm polyacrylate – PA, 100 μm polydimethylsiloxane – PDMS, 65 μm polydimethylsiloxane/divinylbenzene – PDMS/DVB, 70 μm carbowax/divinylbenzene – CW/DVB and 85 μm carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane – CAR/PDMS) is presented for the characterization of the volatile metabolite profile of four selected Madeira island fruit species, lemon (Citrus limon), kiwi (Actinidia deliciosa), papaya (Carica papaya L.) and Chickasaw plum (Prunus angustifolia). The isolation of metabolites was followed by thermal desorption gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC–qMS) methodology. The performance of the target fibres was evaluated and compared. The SPME fibre coated with CW/DVB afforded the highest extraction efficiency in kiwi and papaya pulps, while in lemon and plum the same was achieved with PMDS/DVB fibre. This procedure allowed for the identification of 80 compounds, 41 in kiwi, 24 in plums, 23 in papaya and 20 in lemon. Considering the best extraction conditions, the most abundant volatiles identified in kiwi were the intense aldehydes and ethyl esters such as (E)-2-hexenal and ethyl butyrate, while in Chicasaw plum predominate 2-hexenal, 2-methyl-4-pentenal, hexanal, (Z)-3-hexenol and cyclohexylene oxide. The major compounds identified in the papaya pulp were benzyl isothiocyanate, linalool oxide, furfural, hydroxypropanone, linalool and acetic acid. Finally, lemon was shown to be the most divergent of the four fruits, being its aroma profile composed almost exclusively by terpens, namely limonene, γ-terpinene, o-cymene and α-terpinolene. Thirty two volatiles were identified for the first time in the fruit or close related species analysed and 14 volatiles are reported as novel volatile metabolites in fruits. This includes 5 new compounds in kiwi (2-cyclohexene-1,4-dione, furyl hydroxymethyl ketone, 4-hydroxydihydro-2(3H)-furanone, 5-acetoxymethyl-2-furaldehyde and ethanedioic acid), 4 in plum (4-hydroxydihydro-2(3H)-furanone, 5-methyl-2-pyrazinylmethanol, cyclohexylene oxide and 1-methylcyclohexene), 4 in papaya (octaethyleneglycol, 1,2-cyclopentanedione, 3-methyl-1,2-cyclopentanedione and 2-furyl methyl ketone) and 2 in lemon (geranyl farnesate and safranal). It is noteworthy that among the 15 volatile metabolites identified in papaya, 3-methyl-1,2-cyclopentanedione was previously described as a novel PPARγ (peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ) agonist, having a potential to minimize inflammation.

Development of a new analytical approach based on cellulose membrane and chelator for differentiation of labile and inert metal species in aquatic systems

A new procedure was developed in this study, based on a system equipped with a cellulose membrane and a tetraethylenepentamine hexaacetate chelator (MD-TEPHA) for in situ characterization of the lability of metal species in aquatic systems. To this end, the DM-TEPHA system was prepared by adding TEPHA chelator to cellulose bags pre-purified with 1.0 mol L-1 of HCl and NaOH solutions. After the MD-TEPHA system was sealed, it was examined in the laboratory to evaluate the influence of complexation time (0-24 h), pH (3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0 and 7.0), metal ions (Cu, Cd, Fe, Mn and Ni) and concentration of organic matter (15, 30 and 60 mg L-1) on the relative lability of metal species by TEPHA chelator. The results showed that Fe and Cu metals were complexed more slowly by TEPHA chelator in the MD-TEPHA system than were Cd, Ni and Mn in all pH used. It was also found that the pH strongly influences the process of metal complexation by the MD-TEPHA system. At all the pH levels, Cd, Mn and Ni showed greater complexation with TEPHA chelator (recovery of about 95-75%) than did Cu and Fe metals. Time also affects the lability of metal species complexed by aquatic humic substances (AHS); while Cd, Ni and Mn showed a faster kinetics, reaching equilibrium after about 100 min, and Cu and Fe approached equilibrium after 400 min. Increasing the AHS concentration decreases the lability of metal species by shifting the equilibrium to AHS-metal complexes. Our results indicate that the system under study offers an interesting alternative that can be applied to in situ experiments for differentiation of labile and inert metal species in aquatic systems. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In situ differentiation of labile/inert metal species in Brazilian tropical rivers by means of a time-controlled batch-procedure based on TEPHA resin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic differentiation between sympatric populations of Bacillus cereus and Bacillus thuringiensis

Little is known about genetic exchanges in natural populations of bacteria of the spore-forming Bacillus cereus group, because no population genetics studies have been performed with local sympatric populations. We isolated strains of Bacillus thuringiensis and B. cereus from small samples of soil collected at the same time from two separate geographical sites, one within the forest and the other at the edge of the forest. A total of 100 B. cercus and 98 B. thuringiensis strains were isolated and characterized by electrophoresis to determine allelic composition at nine enzymatic loci. We observed genetic differentiation between populations of B. cereus and B. thuringiensis. Populations of a given Bacillus species-B. thuringiensis or B. cereus-were genetically more similar to each other than to populations of the other Bacillus species. Hemolytic activity provided further evidence of this genetic divergence, which remained evident even if putative clones were removed from the data set. Our results suggest that the rate of gene flow was higher between strains of the same species, but that exchanges between B. cereus and B. thuringiensis were nonetheless possible. Linkage disequilibrium analysis revealed sufficient recombination for B. cereus populations to be considered panmictic units. In B. thuringiensis, the balance between clonal proliferation and recombination seemed to depend on location. Overall, our data indicate that it is not important for risk assessment purposes to determine whether B. cereus and B. thuringiensis belong to a single or two species. Assessment of the biosafety of pest control based on B. thuringiensis requires evaluation of the extent of genetic exchange between strains in realistic natural conditions.

Generalized systemic cryptococcosis in a dog after immunosuppressive corticotherapy

Um cão da raça Boxer, macho, com 2 anos e 11 meses de idade foi encaminhado ao hospital veterinário com histórico de distúrbio gastroentérico de dois meses de duração, apatia, hiporexia, emagrecimento progressivo e deficiência visual. Ataxia e vocalização foram observadas posteriormente. O animal estava sendo tratado em outra clínica veterinária com antibióticos e doses imunossupressoras de corticóides, direcionados ao controle de provável enterite alimentar. A morte ocorreu após cinco dias. As observações macro e microscópica revelaram tratar-se de criptococose sistêmica, atingindo trato digestório, olhos, SNC, rins, pâncreas e linfonodos. O presente relato enfatiza a infecção fúngica criptocócica quanto aos seus aspectos grastrointestinais iniciais a serem considerados no diagnóstico clínico, ressaltando a imunossupressão induzida pela corticoterapia.

Genetic Diversity and Population Differentiation of Guignardia mangiferae from Tahiti Acid Lime

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic Diversity and Population Differentiation of the Causal Agent of Citrus Black Spot in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Infectious bronchitis virus: detection and vaccine Strain differentiation by semi-nested RT-PCR

A semi-nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (Semi-N-RT-PCR) was developed and used to detect the S glycoprotein gene of infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) strains and to discriminate H120 vaccine strain from other strains. Viral RNA was extracted from the allantoic fluid of chicken embryos and from tissues of chickens experimentally infected with different strains of IBV. Amplification and identification of the viral RNA was performed using two sets of primers complementary to a region of the S glycoprotein gene in the Semi-N-RT-PCR assay. The pair of primers used in the first PCR consisted of universal oligonucleotides flanking a more variable region of S1-S2 gene. The second primer pair was used in the Semi-N-RT-PCR and was comprised of one of the primers from the first universal pair together with either another universal internal oligolucleotide or a oligonucleotide sequence specific for the H120 strain of IBV. The universal primers detected all reference IBV strains and field isolates tested herein. The Semi-N-RT-PCR had high sensitivity and specificity, and was able to differentiate the H120 vaccine strain from other reference IBV strains; including M41 strain. All tissue samples collected from chickens experimentally infected with H120 or M41 strains were positive in the semi-nested RT-PCR using universal primers, while only the H120-infected tissue samples were amplified by the set of primers containing the H120-oligonucleotide. In conclusion, the ability of Semi-N-RT-PCR to detect distinct IBV strains and preliminarily discriminate the vaccine strain (H120) closes a diagnostic gap and offers the opportunity to use comprehensive PCR procedures for the IBV diagnosis.