Mind-reading difficulties in the siblings of people with Asperger's syndrome: evidence for a genetic influence in the abnormal development of a specific cognitive domain

Background: Previous research suggests that the phenotype associated with Asperger's syndrome (AS) includes difficulties in understanding the mental states of others, leading to difficulties in social communication and social relationships. It has also been suggested that the first-degree relatives of those with AS can demonstrate similar difficulties, albeit to a lesser extent. This study examined 'theory of mind' (ToM) abilities in the siblings of children with AS relative to a matched control group. Method: 2 7 children who had a sibling with AS were administered the children's version of the 'Eyes Test'(Baron-Cohen, Wheelwright, Stone, & Rutherford, 1999). The control group consisted of 27 children matched for age, sex, and a measure of verbal comprehension, and who did not have a family history of AS/autism. Results: A significant difference was found between the groups on the Eyes Test, the 'siblings' group showing a poorer performance on this measure of social cognition. The difference was more pronounced among female siblings. Discussion: These results are discussed in terms of the familial distribution of a neuro-cognitive profile associated with AS, which confers varying degrees of social handicap amongst first-degree relatives. The implication of this finding with regard to the autism/AS phenotype is explored, with some discussion of why this neuro-cognitive profile (in combination with corresponding strengths) may have an evolutionary imperative.

Design of a minimum variance multiple input-multiple output neuro self-tuning proportional-integral-derivative controller for non-linear dynamic systems

In this study a minimum variance neuro self-tuning proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is designed for complex multiple input-multiple output (MIMO) dynamic systems. An approximation model is constructed, which consists of two functional blocks. The first block uses a linear submodel to approximate dominant system dynamics around a selected number of operating points. The second block is used as an error agent, implemented by a neural network, to accommodate the inaccuracy possibly introduced by the linear submodel approximation, various complexities/uncertainties, and complicated coupling effects frequently exhibited in non-linear MIMO dynamic systems. With the proposed model structure, controller design of an MIMO plant with n inputs and n outputs could be, for example, decomposed into n independent single input-single output (SISO) subsystem designs. The effectiveness of the controller design procedure is initially verified through simulations of industrial examples.

Modelling complex systems for project planning - A semiotics motivated method

A large and complex IT project may involve multiple organizations and be constrained within a temporal period. An organization is a system comprising of people, activities, processes, information, resources and goals. Understanding and modelling such a project and its interrelationship with relevant organizations are essential for organizational project planning. This paper introduces the problem articulation method (PAM) as a semiotic method for organizational infrastructure modelling. PAM offers a suite of techniques, which enables the articulation of the business, technical and organizational requirements, delivering an infrastructural framework to support the organization. It works by eliciting and formalizing (e. g. processes, activities, relationships, responsibilities, communications, resources, agents, dependencies and constraints) and mapping these abstractions to represent the manifestation of the "actual" organization. Many analysts forgo organizational modelling methods and use localized ad hoc and point solutions, but this is not amenable for organizational infrastructures modelling. A case study of the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) will be used to demonstrate the applicability of PAM, and to examine its relevancy and significance in dealing with the innovation and changes in the organizations.

The application of implant technology for cybernetic systems

Objective: To assess the usefulness, compatibility, and long-term operability of a microelectrode array into the median nerve of the left arm of a healthy volunteer, including perception of feedback stimulation and operation of an instrumented prosthetic hand. Setting: The study was carried out from March 14 through June 18, 2002, in England and the United States. Results: The blindfolded subject received feedback information, obtained from force and slip sensors on the prosthetic hand, and subsequently used the implanted device to control the hand by applying an appropriate force to g rip an unseen object. Operability was also demonstrated remotely via the Internet, with the subject in New York, NY, and the prosthetic hand in Reading, England. Finally, the subject was able to control an electric wheelchair, via decoded signals from the implant device, to select the direction of travel by opening and closing his hand. The implantation did not result in infection or any perceivable loss of hand sensation or motion control. The implant was finally extracted because of mechanical fatigue of the percutaneous connection. Further testing after extraction has not indicated any measurable long-term defects in the subject. Conclusions: This implant may allow recipients to have abilities they would otherwise not possess. The response to stimulation improved considerably during the trial, suggesting that the subject learned to process the incoming information more effectively.

A comparison of stratosphere-troposphere transport in convection-permitting and convection-parameterizing simulations of three mesoscale convective systems

The transport of stratospheric air into the troposphere within deep convection was investigated using the Met Office Unified Model version 6.1. Three cases were simulated in which convective systems formed over the UK in the summer of 2005. For each of these three cases, simulations were performed on a grid having 4 km horizontal grid spacing in which the convection was parameterized and on a grid having 1 km horizontal grid spacing, which permitted explicit representation of the largest energy-containing scales of deep convection. Cross-tropopause transport was diagnosed using passive tracers that were initialized above the dynamically defined tropopause (2 potential vorticity unit surface) with a mixing ratio of 1. Although the synoptic-scale environment and triggering mechanisms varied between the cases, the total simulated transport was similar in all three cases. The total stratosphere-to-troposphere transport over the lifetime of the convective systems ranged from 25 to 100 kg/m2 across the simulated convective systems and resolutions, which corresponds to ∼5–20% of the total mass located within a stratospheric column extending 2 km above the tropopause. In all simulations, the transport into the lower troposphere (defined as below 3.5 km elevation) accounted for ∼1% of the total transport across the tropopause. In the 4 km runs most of the transport was due to parameterized convection, whereas in the 1 km runs the transport was due to explicitly resolved convection. The largest difference between the simulations with different resolutions occurred in the one case of midlevel convection considered, in which the total transport in the 1 km grid spacing simulation with explicit convection was 4 times that in the 4 km grid spacing simulation with parameterized convection. Although the total cross-tropopause transport was similar, stratospheric tracer was deposited more deeply to near-surface elevations in the convection-parameterizing simulations than in convection-permitting simulations.

Validation of short tandem repeat analysis for the investigation of cases of disputed paternity

This study details validation of two separate multiplex STR systems for use in paternity investigations. These are the Second Generation Multiplex (SGM) developed by the UK Forensic Science Service and the PowerPlex 1 multiplex commercially available from Promega Inc. (Madison, WI, USA). These multiplexes contain 12 different STR systems (two are duplicated in the two systems). Population databases from Caucasian, Asian and Afro-Caribbean populations have been compiled for all loci. In all but two of the 36 STR/ethnic group combinations, no evidence was obtained to indicate inconsistency with Hardy-Weinberg (HW) proportions. Empirical and theoretical approaches have been taken to validate these systems for paternity testing. Samples from 121 cases of disputed paternity were analysed using established Single Locus Probe (SLP) tests currently in use, and also using the two multiplex STR systems. Results of all three test systems were compared and no non-conformities in the conclusions were observed, although four examples of apparent germ line mutations in the STR systems were identified. The data was analysed to give information on expected paternity indices and exclusion rates for these STR systems. The 12 systems combined comprise a highly discriminating test suitable for paternity testing. 99.96% of non-fathers are excluded from paternity on two or more STR systems. Where no exclusion is found, Paternity Index (PI) values of > 10,000 are expected in > 96% of cases.

Can social interaction skills be taught by a social agent? The role of a robotic mediator in autism therapy

Increasingly socially intelligent agents (software or robotic) are used in education, rehabilitation and therapy. This paper discusses the role of interactive, mobile robots as social mediators in the particular domain of autism therapy. This research is part of the project AURORA that studies how mobile robots can be used to teach children with autism basic interaction skills that are important in social interactions among humans. Results from a particular series of trials involving pairs of two children and a mobile robot are described. The results show that the scenario with pairs of children and a robot creates a very interesting social context which gives rise to a variety of different social and non-social interaction patterns, demonstrating the specific problems but also abilities of children with autism in social interactions. Future work will include a closer analysis of interactional structure in human-human and robot-human interaction. We outline a particular framework that we are investigating.

Modelling and control of Hammerstein system using B-spline approximation and the inverse of De Boor algorithm

In this article a simple and effective controller design is introduced for the Hammerstein systems that are identified based on observational input/output data. The nonlinear static function in the Hammerstein system is modelled using a B-spline neural network. The controller is composed by computing the inverse of the B-spline approximated nonlinear static function, and a linear pole assignment controller. The contribution of this article is the inverse of De Boor algorithm that computes the inverse efficiently. Mathematical analysis is provided to prove the convergence of the proposed algorithm. Numerical examples are utilised to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

An analytical framework for appraising Integrated Arable Farming Systems

Integrated Arable Farming Systems are examined from the perspective of the farmer considering the use of such techniques, and data are presented which suggest that the uptake of the approach may expose the manager to a greater degree of risk. Observations are made about the possible uptake of such systems in the UK and the implications this may have for agricultural and environmental policy in general.

The economic theory of international supply chains: a systems view

This paper offers an integrated analysis of out-sourcing, off-shoring and foreign direct investment within a systems view of international business. This view takes the supply chain rather than the firm as the basic unit of analysis. It argues that competition in the global economy selects supply chains that maximise the joint profit of all the firms in the chain. The systems view is compared with the firm-centred view commonly used in strategy literature. The paper shows that a firm’s strategy must be embedded within an efficient supply chain strategy, and that this strategy must be negotiated with, rather than imposed upon, other firms. The paper analyses the conditions under which various supply chain strategies - and by implication various firm-level strategies - are efficient. Only by adopting a systems view of supply chains is it possible to determine which firm-level strategies will succeed in a volatile global economy.

The kinetics of thermal generation of flavour

Control and optimization of flavor is the ultimate challenge for the food and flavor industry. The major route to flavor formation during thermal processing is the Maillard reaction, which is a complex cascade of interdependent reactions initiated by the reaction between a reducing sugar and an amino compd. The complexity of the reaction means that researchers turn to kinetic modeling in order to understand the control points of the reaction and to manipulate the flavor profile. Studies of the kinetics of flavor formation have developed over the past 30 years from single- response empirical models of binary aq. systems to sophisticated multi-response models in food matrixes, based on the underlying chem., with the power to predict the formation of some key aroma compds. This paper discusses in detail the development of kinetic models of thermal generation of flavor and looks at the challenges involved in predicting flavor.

Potential Predictability and AMIP Implications of Midlatitude Climate Variability in Two General Circulation Models

Ensembles of extended Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from the general circulation models of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly the National Meteorological Center) and the Max-Planck Institute (Hamburg, Germany) are used to estimate the potential predictability (PP) of an index of the Pacific–North America (PNA) mode of climate change. The PP of this pattern in “perfect” prediction experiments is 20%–25% of the index’s variance. The models, particularly that from MPI, capture virtually all of this variance in their hindcasts of the winter PNA for the period 1970–93. The high levels of internally generated model noise in the PNA simulations reconfirm the need for an ensemble averaging approach to climate prediction. This means that the forecasts ought to be expressed in a probabilistic manner. It is shown that the models’ skills are higher by about 50% during strong SST events in the tropical Pacific, so the probabilistic forecasts need to be conditional on the tropical SST. Taken together with earlier studies, the present results suggest that the original set of AMIP integrations (single 10-yr runs) is not adequate to reliably test the participating models’ simulations of interannual climate variability in the midlatitudes.

The causes of prescribing errors in English general practices: a qualitative study

Aim: To examine the causes of prescribing and monitoring errors in English general practices and provide recommendations for how they may be overcome. Design: Qualitative interview and focus group study with purposive sampling and thematic analysis informed by Reason’s accident causation model. Participants: General practice staff participated in a combination of semi-structured interviews (n=34) and six focus groups (n=46). Setting: Fifteen general practices across three primary care trusts in England. Results: We identified seven categories of high-level error-producing conditions: the prescriber, the patient, the team, the task, the working environment, the computer system, and the primary-secondary care interface. Each of these was further broken down to reveal various error-producing conditions. The prescriber’s therapeutic training, drug knowledge and experience, knowledge of the patient, perception of risk, and their physical and emotional health, were all identified as possible causes. The patient’s characteristics and the complexity of the individual clinical case were also found to have contributed to prescribing errors. The importance of feeling comfortable within the practice team was highlighted, as well as the safety of general practitioners (GPs) in signing prescriptions generated by nurses when they had not seen the patient for themselves. The working environment with its high workload, time pressures, and interruptions, and computer related issues associated with mis-selecting drugs from electronic pick-lists and overriding alerts, were all highlighted as possible causes of prescribing errors and often interconnected. Conclusion: This study has highlighted the complex underlying causes of prescribing and monitoring errors in general practices, several of which are amenable to intervention.

Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks

The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6 ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6 ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6 ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the observed changes in precipitation in all regions. Evaluation of the southern-hemisphere monsoons is limited by lack of quantitative reconstructions, but suggest that model skill in simulating these monsoons is limited.