Demográfiai hatások és implicit hozamok kapcsolata a nyugdíjrendszerekben = The relationship of demographic effects and implicit returns in pension systems

E tanulmány központi témája a nyugdíjrendszerek implicit hozama. Az együtt élő nemzedékek figyelembevételével felépülő nyugdíjmodellekben kétféle implicit hozamot különböztetünk meg. A hosszmetszeti implicit hozamot valamely adott nemzedékhez tartozó, különböző években esedékes pénzáramlások alapján, a keresztmetszeti implicit hozamot pedig több, különböző nemzedék adott évben jellemző pénzáramlásai alapján számíthatjuk ki. A hosszmetszeti és keresztmetszeti implicit hozamok értékeit és a közük lévő összefüggéseket a tőkefedezeti, a névleges egyéni számlás és a hagyományos felosztó-kirovó nyugdíjrendszerek egyszerű elméleti modelljeiben hasonlítjuk össze. A számításokhoz használt modellkeret fontos eleme a várható élettartam figyelembevétele. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy a maximális és a várható élettartam eltérésekor a hosszmetszeti és a keresztmetszeti implicit hozamok közötti összefüggések még egyszerű elméleti modellben is meglehetősen összetettek lehetnek. ____ The focus of this study is on the implicit returns of pension systems. Two types are analysed using an overlapping generations model: the calculation of longitudinal\" return is based on cash flows in different years belonging to a given generation, while cross-section\" implicit return is calculated in a given year with cash flows of multiple generations. Values and relationships of longitudinal and cross-section implicit returns are compared in simple theoretical models of fully funded\", notional defined-contribution\" and traditional pay-as-you-go\" pension systems. An important element of the theoretical model is the inclusion of an assumption about life expectancy. Model results point to the complexity of the relation between longitudinal and cross-section implicit returns, if expected and maximum life expectancy differ. The study maps and introduces these complex relationships.

Online vs. Offline Gossip as a Source of Corporate Communicative Advantage

In a world that may be described by information revolution, it is becoming more and more important to discover the diffusion of information and news in a new technological environment. We are not dependent but, more in control of receiving and forwarding information in this technology driven environment. What we can find is that in today’s interpersonal communications, even corporate communications, gossip-like information gain a more important role. Starting from the psychological notion of gossip we asked the question how gossip occurs, evolves and disperses on the internet, what the main criteria of its diffusion and how these maybe taken into service of a company. The power of gossip derives from its biological basis that is communication advantage. The “newsmonger” maybe described with good memory, being up-to-date even in non-gossip like situations. The spread of info is faster and more precise among people with similar professions or of common interest. The content of the gossip adopts to the intellectual level of its audience. We conducted multiple research methods in order to discover about the nature of gossip of corporate interest: content analyses of blogs (N=10) and forums (N=10); online in-depth interviews (N=10); and individual consumer narratives (N=100). Our research shows that companies may lead and use gossip in an online context for their own communication intentions, however, corporate presence in terms of online gossips has to fulfill requirements in order to remain acceptable: that are specific language and place, openness, being direct about expressing intention and origin. In our paper we are going to present our major results and theoretical model

Szolvenciatőke mint fixpont (Solvency Capital as a Fixpoint)

A tanulmányban a szerző a fixpont-iteráció témájával foglalkozik egy elméleti modellben, a biztosítók szolvenciatőkéjének számolásával kapcsolatban. A téma aktualitását a biztosítók tőkemegfelelésével összefüggő Szolvencia II. európai uniós irányelv előreláthatólag közeljövőben várható bevezetése mutatja. Az eredmények alapján megállapítható, hogy az elméleti modellben a biztosítók szolvenciához kapcsolódó tőkeszükséglete matematikai értelemben vett fixpontként is értelmezhető. Bár a gyakorlati tőkeszükséglet-számítások a tanulmányban bemutatottnál jóval összetettebbek, az elméleti eredmények a szolvenciatőke-modellezés érdekes összefüggéseire világítanak rá. _____ In this study fixed point iteration is analyzed in a theoretical model similar to the practical modelling of solvency capital in insurance companies. Actuality of this subject is shown by the approaching practical implementation of the Solvency II directive in the European Union. The results show that in the theoretical model, solvency capital of insurance companies can be interpreted as a fixed point in a mathematical sense. Although practical solvency capital calculations are more complex than those in the study, theoretical results highlight interesting features of solvency capital modelling.

Are parliaments with more parties cheaper to bribe?

We collect data about 172 countries: their parliaments, level of corruption, perceptions of corruption of parliament and political parties. We find weak empirical evidence supporting the conclusion that corruption increases as the number of parties increases. To provide a theoretical explanation of this finding we present a simple theoretical model of parliaments formed by parties, which must decide whether to accept or reject a proposal in the presence of a briber, who is interested in having the bill passed. We compute the number of deputies the briber needs to persuade on average in parliaments with different structures described by the number of parties, the voting quota, and the allocation of seats among parties. We find that the average number of seats needed to be bribed decreases as the number of parties increases. Restricting the minimal number of seats a party may have, we show that the average number of seats to be bribed is smaller in parliaments without small parties. Restricting the maximum number of seats a party may have, we find that under simple majority the average number of seats needed to be bribed is smaller for parliaments in which one party has majority, but under qualified majority it hardly changes.

A marketingeszközök és –tevékenységek részvényesi értékre gyakorolt hatása (The effect of marketing assets and activities on shareholder value)

A vállalati marketing pénzügyi teljesítményre, különösen részvényesi értékre gyakorolt hatásának kimutatása mind fontosabbá válik a marketingráfordítások nagyságának növekedésével, valamint annak felismerésével, hogy a részvényesek számára vevői érték nélkül nem lehet hosszú távon értéket biztosítani, azonban kedvező piaci eredményekkel sem feltétlenül valósul meg a pénzügyi teljesítmény növekedése. A szerzők tanulmányukban a marketingeszközök és -tevékenységek részvényesi értékre gyakorolt hatását vizsgálják, rámutatnak arra, hogy milyen módon befolyásolhatják a részvényeseket megillető szabad pénzáramot, a tulajdonosi megtérülést, a stratégiai tervezési időhorizontot és a végértéket. A marketing néhány lehetséges negatív hatását is kiemelik. Ezt követően felvázolják a marketingjellegű beruházások reálopciós karakterisztikáit, valamint játékelméleti összefüggéseit dinamikusan változó környezetben. ________ Proving the effect of corporate marketing on financial performance, especially on shareholder value, becomes more and more important as marketing expenditures increase. Furthermore by the recognition that for shareholders without customer value it is not possible to provide value in the long run, however, neither good market results can assure the growth of financial performance. In this paper the authors examine the effect of marketing assets and activities on shareholder value, they point out how these can influence free cash flow to equity, shareholder return, strategic planning time period and terminal value. They emphasize also some possible negative effects of marketing. The authors outline the real optional characteristics of marketing investments and their game theoretical relations in dynamic environment.

The effects of required/sequenced preparatory courses on academic success and retention at a community college

This dissertation had two purposes: first, to analyze how required sequenced college preparatory courses in mathematics, reading, and writing affect students' academic success and, second, to add to a theoretical model for predicting student retention at a community college. Grade point average, number of degree credits earned, and re-enrollment rate were measured as determinants of academic success. The treatment group had a significantly higher grade point average than the control group. There was no significant difference in the number of degree credits earned or re-enrollment rate for the groups. A series of logistic regressions used the independent variables E-ASSET scores in math, reading, and writing; number of college prep areas required; credits earned; grade point average; students' status; academic restrictions/required course sequencing; sex; race; and socio-economic status to determine the predictor variables for retention. The academic variable that showed the greatest potential as a predictor for retention was grade point average. Overall, receiving financial aid was the greatest predictor for re-enrollment. For a financial aid recipient the odds of re-enrollment were 2.70 times more likely than if no financial aid was received.

Exchange rate overvaluation under hyperinflation: The case of Peru

This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.^ The standard work in this area, Dornbusch (1976), explains the overshooting process in the context of perfect capital mobility and sluggish adjustment in the goods market. A monetary expansion will make the exchange rate increase beyond its long run equilibrium value. This dissertation expands on Dornbusch's model and provides an analysis of the exchange rate under conditions of currency substitution and price flexibility, characteristics of the Peruvian economy during the hyper inflation process that took place at the end of the 1980's. The results of the modified Dornbusch model reveal that, given a monetary expansion, the change in the price level will be larger than the change in the exchange rate if prices react more than proportionally to the monetary shock.^ We will expect this over-reaction in circumstances of high inflation when the velocity of money is increasing very rapidly. Increasing velocity of money, gives rise to a higher relative price variability which in turn contributes to the appearance of new financial (and also non-financial) instruments that report a higher return than the exchange rate, causing people to switch their demand for foreign exchange to this new assets. In the context of currency substitution, economic agents hoard and use foreign exchange as a store of value. The big decline in output originated by hyper inflation induces people to sell this hoarded money to finance current expenses, increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Both, the decrease in demand and the increase in supply reduce the price of foreign exchange i.e. the real exchange rate. The findings mentioned above are tested using Peruvian data for the period January 1985-July 1990, the results of the econometric estimation confirm our findings in the theoretical model. ^

Financial constraints on research and development

This dissertation examines whether-there exists financial constraints and, if so, their implications for investment in research and development expenditures. It develops a theoretical model of credit rationing and research and development in which both are determined simultaneously and endogenously. The model provides a useful tool to examine different policies that may help alleviate the negative the effect of financial constraints faced by firms.^ The empirical evidence presented deals with two different cases, namely, the motor vehicle industry in Germany (1970-1990) and the electrical machinery industry In Spain (1975-1990).^ The innovation in the empirical analysis is that it follows a novel approach to identify events that allow us to isolate the effect of financial constraints in the determination of research and development.^ Further, empirical evidence is presented to show that in the above two cases financial constraints affect investment in physical capital as well.^ The empirical evidence presented supports the results of the theoretical model developed in this dissertation, showing that financial constraints negatively affect the rate of growth of innovation by reducing the intensity of research and development activity. ^

Assessing the effectiveness of the internationalization process in Higher Education Institutions: A case study of Florida International University

The purpose of this study was to examine a Higher Education Institution’s (HEI) process of internationalization. The theoretical model developed by Van Dijk and Miejer (1997) was used to review Florida International University (FIU)’s policy, support, and implementation dimensions and determine its position on the Internationalization Cube, and assess how FIU’s international activities fit into its different organizational processes. In addition, the study sought to shed light on student and faculty attitudes toward internationalization. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected from examining organizational documents, interviews, descriptive data on FIU’s international activities using the International Dimension Index, and the Student and Faculty Survey on Internationalization. FIU’s international activities results were analyzed in relation to a panel of experts’ item relevancy index. The Likert-type survey scales’ frequencies and percentages were calculated as well as Spearman Rho correlations between the survey’s three scales and demographic and experiences variables. The study found that FIU is located on position six of a possible eight positions on the Van Dijk and Meijer Internationalization Cube with the following characteristics: Priority Policy, One-Sided Support, and Structured Implementation toward internationalization. The analysis of FIU’s results on international activities showed that FIU exhibits all the activities considered to be strong indicators of internationalization but for position seven placement special attention is needed in the areas of foreign language study, international students, study abroad, faculty movement and involvement in international projects. The survey indicated students and faculty rated the Benefits of Internationalization highly but didn’t perceive strong institutional Support for Internationalization. Faculty age and offshore programs participation; student gender, race/ethnicity and class status; and for both, study abroad and knowledge of students travel grant had significant positive correlations with student and faculty attitudes. The study concluded that an association exists between FIU’s position on the Internationalization Cube and its international activities. Recommendations for policy, implementation, and future studies were made. It was concluded that advancing FIU’s position on the Cube will require adjustments in FIU’s policy, support and implementation dimensions. Differences in student and faculty views toward internationalization should be taken into account when planning internationalization efforts.

Three essays on entrepreneurial motivation, entry, exit and monetary rewards

This dissertation analyzes rewards and motivations of self-employment. In light of recent research contributions of Barton Hamilton (2000), which find entrepreneurship not as financially rewarding as wage work, my dissertation attempts to both verify and explain this claim. The first essay proposes a theoretical model of evolution of erroneous earnings expectations on part of a nascent entrepreneur. Inability to observe, survey, and take into account all of the returns to entrepreneurship prior to business entry creates a biased set of beliefs on part of the potential entrants. Using Bayesian learning, a nascent entrepreneur starting out with correct perception of profit distribution arrives at erroneous beliefs by incorporating limited information collected from existing businesses. An observed distribution of surviving businesses would exhibit higher earnings because of previous, unobserved, business failure entrepreneur get an overly positive view of her profit potential. Hence, the chapter offers a unique method of modeling overconfidence. The second essay undertakes dynamic empirical comparison of earnings received by business owners and their wage counterparts. Using Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) I examine both short and long run returns to entrepreneurship comparing theses rewards to wage earners returns. I pay particular attention to transitions into and out of business ownership. I estimate entire earnings distribution. To characterize dynamic aspect of changes to individuals’ earnings I split the income distribution into five income quintiles and follow survey participants over the period of seven years. I find that period-to-period transitions to be Markovian. I find business tenure to be short, business ownership is costly in the short and rewarding in the long run. The third essay considered different reporting schemes applied to the self-employed. It is another empirical investigation of entrepreneurial earning uses Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). I find entrepreneurs while reporting lower than wage workers earnings enjoy significant consumption premiums. I observe evidence of income underreporting by entrepreneurs. This finding suggests a need for better earning comparison metrics and proposes to use consumption rather than income metrics for future comparisons.

The effects of required/sequenced preparatory courses on academic success and retention at a community college

This dissertation had two purposes: first, to analyze how required sequenced college preparatory courses in mathematics, reading, and writing affect students' academic success and, second, to add to a theoretical model for predicting student retention at a community college. Grade point average, number of degree credits earned, and reenrollment rate were measured as determinants of academic success. The treatment group had a significantly higher grade point average than the control group. There was no significant difference in the number of degree credits earned or re-enrollment rate for the groups. A series of logistic regressions used the independent variables E-ASSET scores in math, reading, and writing; number of college prep areas required; credits earned; grade point average; students' status; academic restrictions/required course sequencing; sex; race; and socio-economic status to determine the predictor variables for retention. The academic variable that showed the greatest potential as a predictor for retention was grade point average. Overall, receiving financial aid was the greatest predictor for reenrollment. For a financial aid recipient the odds of reenrollment were 2.70 times more likely than if no financial aid was received.

Análise da problemática socioambiental de nascentes urbanas no município de Garanhuns-PE

Garanhuns City, in Pernambuco, undergoes a rapid, polluting and non-organized urban development affecting its freshwater springs around the urban environment. These sources are of great importance to the district as well as to the hydrographic basin of the Mundaú River. In this view, this paper aims at analyzing the socio-environmental problems resulting from the urban expansion surrounding the Garanhuns’ sources. The study considers the social and environmental dynamics and follows the theoretical contributions of socio-environmental geography proposed by Mendonça’s Urban Environmental System methodological and theoretical model (2004), as well as the conceptual values of Santos’ space theory (2002a). The data treatment included bibliographical and documental research, evaluation of environmental impact, and water analysis. It revealed that Garanhuns possesses many local environmental traits favoring the coming out of freshwater springs and that these sources have played an important role in the making and development of that village. The environmental impacts on freshwater springs, like Olho D’água, Bom Pastor, Vila Maria, Pau Amarelo and Pau Pombo have been evaluated through the environmental impact score IIAN. It put alight serious cases of socio-environmental impacts on the dynamics of the freshwater springs. In the period of April 2013 and April 2014, it monitored the superficial water quality expelled by the Pau Pombo, Pau Amarelo e Vila Maria water sources, and the analyses of the contents followed the determinations of the Environmental National Board, whose parameters are dissolved oxygen, biochemical demand of oxygen, nitrate, total coliforms, faecal coliforms, and electrical conductivity. The results recollected suggest the existence of organic pollution and deep alteration in the water coming out from the sources. In consequence, it seems important the putting out of measures destined to stop those impacts and guaranteeing protection and maintenance of the freshwater springs and their micro-basins.

Fatores que influenciam a predisposição dos usuários em aderir a uma política de segurança da informação

The information constitutes one of the most valuable strategic assets for the organization. However, the organizational environment in which it is inserted is very complex and heterogeneous, making emerging issues relevant to the Governance of information technology (IT) and Information Security. Academic Studies and market surveys indicate that the origin of most accidents with the information assets is the behavior of people organization itself rather than external attacks. Taking as a basis the promotion of a culture of safety among users and ensuring the protection of information in their properties of confidentiality, integrity and availability, organizations must establish its Information Security Policy (PSI). This policy is to formalise the guidelines in relation to the security of corporate information resources, in order to avoid that the asset vulnerabilities are exploited by threats and can bring negative consequences to the business. But, for the PSI being effective, it is required that the user have readiness to accept and follow the procedures and safety standards. In the light of this context, the present study aims to investigate what are the motivators extrinsic and intrinsic that affect the willingness of the user to be in accordance with the organization's security policies. The theoretical framework addresses issues related to IT Governance, Information Security, Theory of deterrence, Motivation and Behavior Pro-social. It was created a theoretical model based on the studies of Herath and Rao (2009) and D'Arcy, Hovav and Galletta (2009) that are based on General Deterrence Theory and propose the following influencing factors in compliance with the Policy: Severity of Punishment, Certainty of Detection, Peer Behaviour, Normative Beliefs, Perceived Effectiveness and Moral Commitment. The research used a quantitative approach, descriptive. The data were collected through a questionnaire with 18 variables with a Likert scale of five points representing the influencing factors proposed by the theory. The sample was composed of 391 students entering the courses from the Center for Applied Social Sciences of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte. For the data analysis, were adopted the techniques of Exploratory Factor Analysis, Analysis of Cluster hierarchical and nonhierarchical, Logistic Regression and Multiple Linear Regression. As main results, it is noteworthy that the factor severity of punishment is what contributes the most to the theoretical model and also influences the division of the sample between users more predisposed and less prone. As practical implication, the research model applied allows organizations to provide users less prone and, with them, to carry out actions of awareness and training directed and write Security Policies more effective.

Não-extensividade no contexto da atividade magnética solar: o problema da assimetria hemisférica

Solar activity indicators, each as sunspot numbers, sunspot area and flares, over the Sun’s photosphere are not considered to be symmetric between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. This behavior is also known as the North-South Asymmetry of the different solar indices. Among the different conclusions obtained by several authors, we can point that the N-S asymmetry is a real and systematic phenomenon and is not due to random variability. In the present work, the probability distributions from the Marshall Space Flight Centre (MSFC) database are investigated using a statistical tool arises from well-known Non-Extensive Statistical Mechanics proposed by C. Tsallis in 1988. We present our results and discuss their physical implications with the help of theoretical model and observations. We obtained that there is a strong dependence between the nonextensive entropic parameter q and long-term solar variability presents in the sunspot area data. Among the most important results, we highlight that the asymmetry index q reveals the dominance of the North against the South. This behavior has been discussed and confirmed by several authors, but in no time they have given such behavior to a statistical model property. Thus, we conclude that this parameter can be considered as an effective measure for diagnosing long-term variations of solar dynamo. Finally, our dissertation opens a new approach for investigating time series in astrophysics from the perspective of non-extensivity.

Motivações semântico-cognitivas e discursivo-pragmáticas no uso de sufixos graduadores nominais

We study the use of nominal suffixes of degree, such as -inho, -ão, -íssimo, -ílimo, -érrimo in written texts in Brazilian Portuguese, by focusing on semantic, cognitive, pragmatic and discourse aspects involved in using these suffixes. In general, we aim to identify semanticcognitive and discourse-pragmatic factors that motivate the usage of nominal suffixes of degree and to contribute for the study of degree in Portuguese class in Basic Education. The theoretical perspective underlying our research is the Linguística Funcional Centrada no Uso, as conceived by group of researchers of Discurso & Gramática (FURTADO DA CUNHA, BISPO, SILVA, 2013; MARTELOTTA, 2011). According to this theoretical model, language model uses the shape of the grammar of a language at the same time they are provisioned for it. In this sense, speech and grammar influence each other. In terms of methodology, we make an eminently qualitative research with quantitative support as evidence of use of trend. It is characterized also by descriptive and interpretive bias of the phenomenon under study. Empirical evidence from our analysis come from a corpus consisting of written texts from Veja magazine, January to June 2011 issues, particularly Carta do Leitor e Gente sections, the latter representative of the Coluna Social magazine. The results of our analysis showed that the use of nominal graders suffixes are related to semantic-cognitive factors (construction of certain text directions, the association more grounded aspects of concrete experience or the more abstract meanings, for example), the discourse-pragmatic issues (range certain communicative purposes, as critique, judge, mock, claim, involving the reader, seeking her membership of a particular point of view). In addition, we found that the use of these morphic elements in genres of the sample analyzed were related to the subjectivity of the writer and the inter-subjective issues involving writer and reader, as Traugott and Dasher (2002). Finally, we contemplate discussion about the approach of our object of study in Portuguese classes in Basic Education.