Global Prospects for Dairy in Argentina and Chile: Evidence from Field Visits and Model Simulations, August 2006

We assess the international competitiveness of the dairy industries in Argentina and Chile, combining recent market intelligence gathered from field visits with quantitative simulations of global policy reform scenarios. Both countries exhibit strong potential for export growth but face significant internal and external barriers to expanding their dairy industries. Global policy reforms would resolve some of the international obstacles to their expansion. Argentina has great potential, but it is handicapped by its current macroeconomic policies, trade policy distortions, and the uncertainty associated with policy implementation. Chile is more limited in terms of natural capacity for expansion, but it has a positive trade and investment environment.

Hormonal, global, and regional haemodynamic responses to a vascular antagonist of vasopressin in patients with congestive heart failure with and without hyponatraemia.

The pathophysiological role of an increase in circulating vasopressin in sustaining global and regional vasoconstriction in patients with congestive heart failure has not been established, particularly in patients with hyponatraemia. To assess this further, 20 patients with congestive heart failure refractory to digoxin and diuretics were studied before and 60 minutes after the intravenous injection (5 micrograms/kg) of the vascular antagonist of vasopressin [1(beta-mercapto-beta,beta-cyclopentamethylene-propionic acid), 2-(0-methyl) tyrosine] arginine vasopressin. Ten patients were hyponatraemic (plasma sodium less than 135 mmol/l) and 10 were normonatraemic. In both groups of patients the vascular vasopressin antagonist did not alter systemic or pulmonary artery pressures, right atrial pressure, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, cardiac index, or vascular resistances. Furthermore, there was no change in skin and hepatic blood flow in either group after the injection of the vascular antagonist. Only one patient in the hyponatraemic group showed considerable haemodynamic improvement. He had severe congestive heart failure and a high concentration of plasma vasopressin (51 pmol/l). Plasma renin activity, vasopressin, or catecholamine concentrations were not significantly changed in response to the administration of the vasopressin antagonist in either the hyponatraemic or the normonatraemic groups. Patients with hyponatraemia, however, had higher baseline plasma catecholamine concentrations, heart rate, pulmonary pressure and resistance, and lower hepatic blood flow than patients without hyponatraemia. Plasma vasopressin and plasma renin activity were slightly, though not significantly, higher in the hyponatraemic group. Thus the role of vasopressin in sustaining regional or global vasoconstriction seems limited in patients with congestive heart failure whether or not concomitant hyponatraemia is present. Vasopressin significantly increases the vascular tone only in rare patients with severe congestive heart failure and considerably increased vasopressin concentrations. Patients with hyponatraemia do, however, have raised baseline catecholamine concentrations, heart rate, pulmonary arterial pressure and resistance, and decreased hepatic blood flow.

Do orthopaedic shoes improve local dynamic stability of gait? An observational study in patients with chronic foot and ankle injuries.

BACKGROUND: Complex foot and ankle fractures, such as calcaneum fractures or Lisfranc dislocations, are often associated with a poor outcome, especially in terms of gait capacity. Indeed, degenerative changes often lead to chronic pain and chronic functional limitations. Prescription footwear represents an important therapeutic tool during the rehabilitation process. Local Dynamic Stability (LDS) is the ability of locomotor system to maintain continuous walking by accommodating small perturbations that occur naturally during walking. Because it reflects the degree of control over the gait, LDS has been advocated as a relevant indicator for evaluating different conditions and pathologies. The aim of this study was to analyze changes in LDS induced by orthopaedic shoes in patients with persistent foot and ankle injuries. We hypothesised that footwear adaptation might help patients to improve gait control, which could lead to higher LDS: METHODS: Twenty-five middle-aged inpatients (5 females, 20 males) participated in the study. They were treated for chronic post-traumatic disabilities following ankle and/or foot fractures in a Swiss rehabilitation clinic. During their stay, included inpatients received orthopaedic shoes with custom-made orthoses (insoles). They performed two 30s walking trials with standard shoes and two 30s trials with orthopaedic shoes. A triaxial motion sensor recorded 3D accelerations at the lower back level. LDS was assessed by computing divergence exponents in the acceleration signals (maximal Lyapunov exponents). Pain was evaluated with Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). LDS and pain differences between the trials with standard shoes and the trials with orthopaedic shoes were assessed. RESULTS: Orthopaedic shoes significantly improved LDS in the three axes (medio-lateral: 10% relative change, paired t-test p < 0.001; vertical: 9%, p = 0.03; antero-posterior: 7%, p = 0.04). A significant decrease in pain level (VAS score -29%) was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Footwear adaptation led to pain relief and to improved foot & ankle proprioception. It is likely that that enhancement allows patients to better control foot placement. As a result, higher dynamic stability has been observed. LDS seems therefore a valuable index that could be used in early evaluation of footwear outcome in clinical settings.

L'hémodialyse intermittente aux soins intensifs = [Intermittent hemodialysis in the intensive care setting]

Acute renal failure is a frequent and potentially lethal disease in intensive care units. Renal replacement therapy (RRT) is often required. Either intermittent or continuous methods of RRT can be used. When to start a RRT and which method to use is not always clearly defined and a global evaluation of the clinical situation is required. The choice of the modality of RRT will be up to the general clinical context, hemodynamic stability, the type of molecules to be cleared and the haemorrhagic risk as much as habits and available resources. No study currently showed a superiority of either continuous or intermittent renal replacement therapy. The collaboration between intensive care specialists and nephrologists allows an optimized choice for a given patient and allow better move from one technic to another if required.

Evolutionary games on complex networks : the emergence and maintenance of cooperation

Abstract The object of game theory lies in the analysis of situations where different social actors have conflicting requirements and where their individual decisions will all influence the global outcome. In this framework, several games have been invented to capture the essence of various dilemmas encountered in many common important socio-economic situations. Even though these games often succeed in helping us understand human or animal behavior in interactive settings, some experiments have shown that people tend to cooperate with each other in situations for which classical game theory strongly recommends them to do the exact opposite. Several mechanisms have been invoked to try to explain the emergence of this unexpected cooperative attitude. Among them, repeated interaction, reputation, and belonging to a recognizable group have often been mentioned. However, the work of Nowak and May (1992) showed that the simple fact of arranging the players according to a spatial structure and only allowing them to interact with their immediate neighbors is sufficient to sustain a certain amount of cooperation even when the game is played anonymously and without repetition. Nowak and May's study and much of the following work was based on regular structures such as two-dimensional grids. Axelrod et al. (2002) showed that by randomizing the choice of neighbors, i.e. by actually giving up a strictly local geographical structure, cooperation can still emerge, provided that the interaction patterns remain stable in time. This is a first step towards a social network structure. However, following pioneering work by sociologists in the sixties such as that of Milgram (1967), in the last few years it has become apparent that many social and biological interaction networks, and even some technological networks, have particular, and partly unexpected, properties that set them apart from regular or random graphs. Among other things, they usually display broad degree distributions, and show small-world topological structure. Roughly speaking, a small-world graph is a network where any individual is relatively close, in terms of social ties, to any other individual, a property also found in random graphs but not in regular lattices. However, in contrast with random graphs, small-world networks also have a certain amount of local structure, as measured, for instance, by a quantity called the clustering coefficient. In the same vein, many real conflicting situations in economy and sociology are not well described neither by a fixed geographical position of the individuals in a regular lattice, nor by a random graph. Furthermore, it is a known fact that network structure can highly influence dynamical phenomena such as the way diseases spread across a population and ideas or information get transmitted. Therefore, in the last decade, research attention has naturally shifted from random and regular graphs towards better models of social interaction structures. The primary goal of this work is to discover whether or not the underlying graph structure of real social networks could give explanations as to why one finds higher levels of cooperation in populations of human beings or animals than what is prescribed by classical game theory. To meet this objective, I start by thoroughly studying a real scientific coauthorship network and showing how it differs from biological or technological networks using divers statistical measurements. Furthermore, I extract and describe its community structure taking into account the intensity of a collaboration. Finally, I investigate the temporal evolution of the network, from its inception to its state at the time of the study in 2006, suggesting also an effective view of it as opposed to a historical one. Thereafter, I combine evolutionary game theory with several network models along with the studied coauthorship network in order to highlight which specific network properties foster cooperation and shed some light on the various mechanisms responsible for the maintenance of this same cooperation. I point out the fact that, to resist defection, cooperators take advantage, whenever possible, of the degree-heterogeneity of social networks and their underlying community structure. Finally, I show that cooperation level and stability depend not only on the game played, but also on the evolutionary dynamic rules used and the individual payoff calculations. Synopsis Le but de la théorie des jeux réside dans l'analyse de situations dans lesquelles différents acteurs sociaux, avec des objectifs souvent conflictuels, doivent individuellement prendre des décisions qui influenceront toutes le résultat global. Dans ce cadre, plusieurs jeux ont été inventés afin de saisir l'essence de divers dilemmes rencontrés dans d'importantes situations socio-économiques. Bien que ces jeux nous permettent souvent de comprendre le comportement d'êtres humains ou d'animaux en interactions, des expériences ont montré que les individus ont parfois tendance à coopérer dans des situations pour lesquelles la théorie classique des jeux prescrit de faire le contraire. Plusieurs mécanismes ont été invoqués pour tenter d'expliquer l'émergence de ce comportement coopératif inattendu. Parmi ceux-ci, la répétition des interactions, la réputation ou encore l'appartenance à des groupes reconnaissables ont souvent été mentionnés. Toutefois, les travaux de Nowak et May (1992) ont montré que le simple fait de disposer les joueurs selon une structure spatiale en leur permettant d'interagir uniquement avec leurs voisins directs est suffisant pour maintenir un certain niveau de coopération même si le jeu est joué de manière anonyme et sans répétitions. L'étude de Nowak et May, ainsi qu'un nombre substantiel de travaux qui ont suivi, étaient basés sur des structures régulières telles que des grilles à deux dimensions. Axelrod et al. (2002) ont montré qu'en randomisant le choix des voisins, i.e. en abandonnant une localisation géographique stricte, la coopération peut malgré tout émerger, pour autant que les schémas d'interactions restent stables au cours du temps. Ceci est un premier pas en direction d'une structure de réseau social. Toutefois, suite aux travaux précurseurs de sociologues des années soixante, tels que ceux de Milgram (1967), il est devenu clair ces dernières années qu'une grande partie des réseaux d'interactions sociaux et biologiques, et même quelques réseaux technologiques, possèdent des propriétés particulières, et partiellement inattendues, qui les distinguent de graphes réguliers ou aléatoires. Entre autres, ils affichent en général une distribution du degré relativement large ainsi qu'une structure de "petit-monde". Grossièrement parlant, un graphe "petit-monde" est un réseau où tout individu se trouve relativement près de tout autre individu en termes de distance sociale, une propriété également présente dans les graphes aléatoires mais absente des grilles régulières. Par contre, les réseaux "petit-monde" ont, contrairement aux graphes aléatoires, une certaine structure de localité, mesurée par exemple par une quantité appelée le "coefficient de clustering". Dans le même esprit, plusieurs situations réelles de conflit en économie et sociologie ne sont pas bien décrites ni par des positions géographiquement fixes des individus en grilles régulières, ni par des graphes aléatoires. De plus, il est bien connu que la structure même d'un réseau peut passablement influencer des phénomènes dynamiques tels que la manière qu'a une maladie de se répandre à travers une population, ou encore la façon dont des idées ou une information s'y propagent. Ainsi, durant cette dernière décennie, l'attention de la recherche s'est tout naturellement déplacée des graphes aléatoires et réguliers vers de meilleurs modèles de structure d'interactions sociales. L'objectif principal de ce travail est de découvrir si la structure sous-jacente de graphe de vrais réseaux sociaux peut fournir des explications quant aux raisons pour lesquelles on trouve, chez certains groupes d'êtres humains ou d'animaux, des niveaux de coopération supérieurs à ce qui est prescrit par la théorie classique des jeux. Dans l'optique d'atteindre ce but, je commence par étudier un véritable réseau de collaborations scientifiques et, en utilisant diverses mesures statistiques, je mets en évidence la manière dont il diffère de réseaux biologiques ou technologiques. De plus, j'extrais et je décris sa structure de communautés en tenant compte de l'intensité d'une collaboration. Finalement, j'examine l'évolution temporelle du réseau depuis son origine jusqu'à son état en 2006, date à laquelle l'étude a été effectuée, en suggérant également une vue effective du réseau par opposition à une vue historique. Par la suite, je combine la théorie évolutionnaire des jeux avec des réseaux comprenant plusieurs modèles et le réseau de collaboration susmentionné, afin de déterminer les propriétés structurelles utiles à la promotion de la coopération et les mécanismes responsables du maintien de celle-ci. Je mets en évidence le fait que, pour ne pas succomber à la défection, les coopérateurs exploitent dans la mesure du possible l'hétérogénéité des réseaux sociaux en termes de degré ainsi que la structure de communautés sous-jacente de ces mêmes réseaux. Finalement, je montre que le niveau de coopération et sa stabilité dépendent non seulement du jeu joué, mais aussi des règles de la dynamique évolutionnaire utilisées et du calcul du bénéfice d'un individu.

RELATÓRIO GLOBAL DE SEGUIMENTO DA EXECUÇÃO DA ESTRATÉGIA DE CRESCIMENTO E DE REDUÇÃO DA POBREZA DECRP II

DIRECÇÃO NACIONAL DO PLANEAMENTO

The Role of Public Administration: A Global Perspective

From my experience with public administration in my country, Cape Verde, and through readings in the area of development administration, I have found that a distinctive role and specific societal goals are usually ascribed to public administration in developing country. In studying American public administration approaches and operation, I was stuck by the fact that the definition of roles and societal goals for public administration seems not to be a forefront concern in the field. How to do things and achieve efficiency, in a managerial and rational perspective, seemed to draw much more attention than the purpose of doing things. Somehow, the contrast with the concept of development administration seemed too sharp, and I became curious about the reasons for such disparate approaches. Historical, cultural, and environmental differences would probably not be the only explanation for that since the concept of development administration was shaped, in the late 50’s and 60’s, by American authors and institutional aid agencies, and then “offered” to developing countries. At the same time, looking to poor results of the successive prescriptions of the development administration movement, I was no sure that such a concept and the framework it establishes was worthwhile. What practical answers and arrangement did they bring to the needs and challenges of public administrations in developing countries? …

Reconciling global mammal prioritization schemes into a strategy.

The huge conservation interest that mammals attract and the large datasets that have been collected on them have propelled a diversity of global mammal prioritization schemes, but no comprehensive global mammal conservation strategy. We highlight some of the potential discrepancies between the schemes presented in this theme issue, including: conservation of species or areas, reactive and proactive conservation approaches, conservation knowledge and action, levels of aggregation of indicators of trend and scale issues. We propose that recently collected global mammal data and many of the mammal prioritization schemes now available could be incorporated into a comprehensive global strategy for the conservation of mammals. The task of developing such a strategy should be coordinated by a super-partes, authoritative institution (e.g. the International Union for Conservation of Nature, IUCN). The strategy would facilitate funding agencies, conservation organizations and national institutions to rapidly identify a number of short-term and long-term global conservation priorities, and act complementarily to achieve them.

Estratégia e Plano de Acção Nacional para o Desenvolvimento das Capacidades na Gestão Ambiental Global em Cabo Verde

- A ligação entre a Gestão Ambiental Global e o Desenvolvimento Durável é capital para um país como Cabo Verde. Os “cenários” de desenvolvimento humano e económico, tendo em conta a vulnerabilidade ambiental e no contexto de um pequeno estado insular em desenvolvimento (SIDS), devem ser bem avaliados e implementados com uma visão estratégica integrada, sinérgica e de longo prazo. - É necessário ultrapassar as políticas e traduzir essas políticas em acções práticas e concretas, principalmente em acções de capacitação em gestão ambiental, é assim que surge o projecto NCSA-GEM para desenvolver as capacidades nacionais em termos individuais, institucionais e sistémico, nos domínios prioritários das Convenções Internacionais de Rio e, consequentemente reforçar a implementação do PANA II enquanto instrumento nacional para a gestão do ambiente. - A implementação das Convenções Internacionais do Rio revela muitas interacções, semelhanças e intersecções. A sua compreensão e apreensão através de uma abordagem coordenada são susceptíveis de melhorar a eficácia e eficiência. As ligações existentes entre as convenções devem ser entendidas como oportunidades favorecendo a implementação de acções concretas. A implementação das obrigações ou engajamentos das convenções necessita fortes capacidades nacionais e locais de acordo com a importância dos seus objectivos. As Convenções Internacionais já foram implantadas em Cabo Verde há vários anos; no entanto, o problema da coordenação das suas implementações quer separada ou sinérgica não teve ainda solução, revelando se necessário a elaboração de uma Estratégia e Plano de Acção para o Desenvolvimento das Capacidades. - A abordagem utilizada, de acordo com a metodologia e orientações do projecto NCSA, foi a análise de toda a documentação existente sobre as três Convenções (CCD, CBD; CCC), Gestão Ambiental, Estratégias Nacionais de Desenvolvimento, DCRP, Planos de Acção Nacionais, CCD, CBD, CCC, PANA II, Guia Metodológico do NCSA-GEF, Modelos existentes em outros países, Perfis Temáticos e Estudo de Transversalidade e Sinergia entre as três Convenções do Rio em Cabo Verde, entre outros. Também priorizou se a abordagem participativa e pró-activa com os diferentes actores e parceiros técnicos e financeiros, através de realizações de sessões de trabalho, jornadas e ateliers a nível central e descentralizado. - Para que haja uma implementação efectiva do EPAN-NCSA, recomenda-se : • Garantir um suporte de político de alto nível para a gestão do processo (playdoyer/lobbying junto das mais altas autoridades governamentais do país e dos parceiros estratégicos de desenvolvimento); • Escolher a opção para a estrutura de coordenação e implementação do EPAN-NCSA ou a combinação das opções apresentadas; Elaborar os TDR para a organização ou entidade líder do processo de coordenação implementação do EPAN-NCSA, incluindo todos os requisitos organizacionais e operacionais; • Elaborar e divulgar brochuras NCSA de informação sobre as (oportunidades) das Convenções de Rio e um Manual de Procedimentos integrando o papel e responsabilidades dos actores/parceiros chaves no desenvolvimento das capacidades para a gestão ambiental; • Procurar fundos para a instalação da estrutura/organização responsável pela implementação do EPAN-NCSA e procurar fundos operacionais para as acções específicas propostas no Plano. Algumas fontes de financiamento podem ser abordadas nomeadamente: (1) Os orçamentos nacionais; (2) Fundos e programas País – do sistema das NU; (3) Fundos do GEF; (4) Fundo para o Ambiente; (5) Mecanismos financeiros Inovadores no âmbito das Convenções. - A sustentabilidade da implementação do EPAN no âmbito do processo NCSA é condicionada por alguns riscos, nomeadamente: • Mudanças ou revisões institucionais; • Necessário enquadramento no novo sistema de gestão para o apoio orçamental com obrigação de apresentação de resultados sustentáveis; • Capacidade de resposta do País tendo em conta a sua graduação para PDM; • Consistência e viabilidade a longo prazo das Convenções do Rio. Esses riscos devem ser deliberadamente considerados nas opções governamentais, em como as capacidades prioritárias podem ser desenvolvidas, os mecanismos de sustentabilidade e mobilização de fundos podem ser alargados/ampliados e o desenho do sistema de seguimento e avaliação nacional pode ser implementado de forma a permitir a avaliação do progresso do desenvolvimento das capacidades no país. Esses riscos poderão ser mitigados para a sustentabilidade do Processo NCSA através de implementação de : (1) Uma estratégia NCSA de Mobilização de Recursos; (2) Uma Estratégia de Comunicação e Integração Estratégica do NCSA com o SIA e IEC; (3) Uma Estratégia PANNCSA para a investigação integrada, interdisciplinar e sustentável.

Hot vs. cold: Sequential responses and preference stability in experimental games

In experiments with two-person sequential games we analyzewhether responses to favorable and unfavorable actions dependon the elicitation procedure. In our hot treatment thesecond player responds to the first player s observed actionwhile in our cold treatment we follow the strategy method and have the second player decide on a contingent action foreach and every possible first player move, without firstobserving this move. Our analysis centers on the degree towhich subjects deviate from the maximization of their pecuniaryrewards, as a response to others actions. Our results show nodifference in behavior between the two treatments. We also findevidence of the stability of subjects preferences with respectto their behavior over time and to the consistency of theirchoices as first and second mover.

Conservation of oceanic island floras: Present and future global challenges

Currentthreatstotheplanet’sbiodiversityareunprecedented,andtheyparticularlyimperilinsular floras.Inthisinvestigation,weusethethreatfactorsidentifiedbytheMillenniumEcosystem Assessmentasthemaindriversofbiodiversitylossonislandstodefineandrank13current,continuing threatstotheplantdiversityofninefocalarchipelagoswherevolcanicorigin(orintheSeychellesa prolongedisolationafteracontinentalorigin)hasproducedahighdegreeofendemicityandfragilityin the faceofhabitatalteration.Wealsoconductaglobalendangermentassessmentbasedonthe numbersofinsularendemicplantsintheendangered(EN)andcriticallyendangered(CR)IUCN categoriesfor53islandgroupswithanestimated9951endemicplantspecies,providinga representativesampleoftheworld’sinsularsystemsandtheirfloristicrichness.Ouranalysesindicate that isolationdoesnotsignificantlyinfluenceendangerment,butplantendemicsfromverysmall islandsaremoreoftencriticallyendangered.Weestimatethatbetween3500and6800oftheestimated 70,000 insularendemicplantspeciesworldwidemightbehighlythreatened(CR+EN)andbetweenca. 2000 and2800ofthemincriticaldangerofextinction(CR).Basedontheseanalyses,andona worldwideliteraturereviewofthebiologicalthreatfactorsconsidered,weidentifychallenging questionsforconservationresearch,asking(i)whatarethemosturgentprioritiesfortheconservation of insularspeciesandfloras,and(ii)withtheknowledgeandassetsavailable,howcanweimprovethe impactofconservationscienceandpracticeonthepreservationofislandbiodiversity?Ouranalysis indicatesthatthesynergisticactionofmanythreatfactorscaninducemajorecologicaldisturbances, leadingtomultipleextinctions.Wereviewweaknessesandstrengthsinconservationresearchand managementintheninefocalarchipelagos,andhighlighttheurgentneedforconservationscientiststo shareknowledgeandexpertise,identifyanddiscusscommonchallenges,andformulatemulti- disciplinaryconservationobjectivesforinsularplantendemicsworldwide.Toourknowledge,thisisthe mostup-to-dateandcomprehensivesurveyyettoreviewthethreatfactorstonativeplantsonoceanic islandsanddefinepriorityresearchquestions.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.