Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

Background Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. Methods Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. Results During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. Conclusions The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

Combined anatomical and clinical factors for the long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score

The SYNTAX score (SXscore), an anatomical-based scoring tool reflecting the complexity of coronary anatomy, has established itself as an important long-term prognostic factor in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The incorporation of clinical factors may further augment the utility of the SXscore to longer-term risk stratify the individual patient for clinical outcomes.

A 3-center comparison of 1-year mortality outcomes between transcatheter aortic valve implantation and surgical aortic valve replacement on the basis of propensity score matching among intermediate-risk surgical patients

This study sought to compare all-cause mortality in patients at intermediate surgical risk undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR).

Concomitant Vascular Reconstruction During Pancreatectomy for Malignant Disease: A Propensity Score-Adjusted, Population-Based Trend Analysis Involving 10 206 Patients

OBJECTIVE To assess trends in the frequency of concomitant vascular reconstructions (VRs) from 2000 through 2009 among patients who underwent pancreatectomy, as well as to compare the short-term outcomes between patients who underwent pancreatic resection with and without VR. DESIGN Single-center series have been conducted to evaluate the short-term and long-term outcomes of VR during pancreatic resection. However, its effectiveness from a population-based perspective is still unknown. Unadjusted, multivariable, and propensity score-adjusted generalized linear models were performed. SETTING Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2000 through 2009. PATIENTS A total of 10 206 patients were involved. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of VR during pancreatic resection, perioperative in-hospital complications, and length of hospital stay. RESULTS Overall, 10 206 patients were included in this analysis. Of these, 412 patients (4.0%) underwent VR, with the rate increasing from 0.7% in 2000 to 6.0% in 2009 (P < .001). Patients who underwent pancreatic resection with VR were at a higher risk for intraoperative (propensity score-adjusted odds ratio, 1.94; P = .001) and postoperative (propensity score-adjusted odds ratio, 1.36; P = .008) complications, while the mortality and median length of hospital stay were similar to those of patients without VR. Among the 25% of hospitals with the highest surgical volume, patients who underwent pancreatic surgery with VR had significantly higher rates of postoperative complications and mortality than patients without VR. CONCLUSIONS The frequency of VR during pancreatic surgery is increasing in the United States. In contrast with most single-center analyses, this population-based study demonstrated that patients who underwent VR during pancreatic surgery had higher rates of adverse postoperative outcomes than their counterparts who underwent pancreatic resection only. Prospective studies incorporating long-term outcomes are warranted to further define which patients benefit from VR.

Leukocyte populations and mRNA expression of inflammatory factors in quarter milk fractions at different somatic cell score levels in dairy cows

The effect of somatic cell count (SCC) and milk fraction on milk composition, distribution of cell populations, and mRNA expression of various inflammatory parameters was studied. Therefore, quarter milk samples were defined as cisternal (C), first 400 g of alveolar (A1), and remaining alveolar milk (A2) during the course of milking. Quarters were assigned to 4 groups according to their total SCC: 1) <12 x 10(3)/mL, 2) 12 to 100 x 10(3)/mL, 3) 100 to 350 x 10(3)/mL, and 4) >350 x 10(3)/mL. Milk constituents of interest were SCC, fat, protein, lactose sodium, and chloride ions as well as electrical conductivity. Cell populations were classified into lymphocytes, macrophages, and neutrophils (PMN). The mRNA expression of the inflammatory factors tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukin-1beta, cyclooxygenase-2, lactoferrin, and lysozyme was measured via real-time, quantitative reverse transcription PCR. Somatic cell count decreased from highest levels in C to lowest levels in A1 and increased thereafter to A2 in all groups. Fat content increased from C to A2 and with increasing SCC level. Lactose decreased with increasing SCC level but remained unchanged during milking. Concentrations of sodium and chloride, and electrical conductivity increased with increasing SCC but were higher in C than in A1 and A2. Protein was not affected by milk fraction or SCC level. The distribution of leukocytes was dramatically influenced by milk fraction and SCC. Lymphocytes were the dominating cell population in group 1, but the proportion of lymphocytes was low in groups 2, 3, and 4. Macrophage proportion was highest in group 2 and decreased in groups 3 and 4, whereas that of PMN increased from group 2 to 4. The content of macrophages decreased during milking in all SCC groups whereas that of PMN increased. The proportion of lymphocytes was not affected by milk fraction. The mRNA expression of all inflammatory factors showed an increase with increasing SCC but minor changes occurred during milking. In conclusion, milk fraction and SCC level have a crucial influence on the distribution of leukocyte populations and several milk constituents. The surprisingly high content of lymphocytes and concomitantly low mRNA expression of inflammatory factors in quarters with SCC <12 x 10(3)/mL indicates a different and possibly reduced readiness of the immune system to respond to invading pathogens.

Intravitreal bevacizumab (Avastin) in the treatment of neovascular glaucoma

PURPOSE: To describe a case series of neovascular glaucoma (NVG) caused by central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) that was treated with intravitreal bevacizumab (IVB; Avastin). DESIGN: Retrospective interventional case series. METHODS: Six consecutive patients with NVG and a refractory, symptomatic elevation of intraocular pressure (IOP) and pronounced anterior segment congestion received IVB (1.25 mg/0.05 ml). Diode laser cyclophotocoagulation was carried out only if pressure was controlled insufficiently by topical medication. Follow-up examinations occurred at four to 16 weeks. RESULTS: IVB resulted in a marked regression of anterior segment neovascularization and relief of symptoms within 48 hours. IOP decreased substantially in three eyes; in the other three eyes, adjuvant cyclophotocoagulation was necessary. No side effects were observed. Panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) was performed as soon as feasible, five to 12 weeks after IVB treatment. CONCLUSION: IVB leads to a rapid regression of iris and angle neovascularization and should be investigated more thoroughly as an adjunct in the management of NVG.

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC score >or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

MULTIPLE DISEASES IN CARRIER PROBABILITY ESTIMATION: ACCOUNTING FOR SURVIVING ALL CANCERS OTHER THAN BREAST AND OVARY IN BRCAPRO

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 familes from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO’s concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p = 0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35% to 39% (p < 10−6) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability < 10%. Copyright c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Concordance Probability and Discriminatory Power in Proportional Hazards Regression

The concordance probability is used to evaluate the discriminatory power and the predictive accuracy of nonlinear statistical models. We derive an analytic expression for the concordance probability in the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed estimator is a function of the regression parameters and the covariate distribution only and does not use the observed event and censoring times. For this reason it is asymptotically unbiased, unlike Harrell's c-index based on informative pairs. The asymptotic distribution of the concordance probability estimate is derived using U-statistic theory and the methodology is applied to a predictive model in lung cancer.