The survival advantage of milk and dairy consumption: An overview of evidence from cohort studies of vascular diseases, diabetes and cancer

Objectives: To conduct it detailed evaluation, with meta-analyses, of the published evidence on milk and dairy consumption and the incidence of vascular diseases and diabetes. Also to summarise the evidence on milk and dairy consumption and cancer reported by the World Cancer Research Fund and then to consider the relevance of milk and dairy consumption to survival in the UK, a typical Western community. Finally, published evidence on relationships with whole milk and fat-reduced milks was examined. Methods: Prospective cohort studies of vascular disease and diabetes with baseline data on milk or dairy consumption and a relevant disease outcome were identified by searching MEDLINE, and reference lists in the relevant published reports. Meta-analyses of relationships in these reports were conducted. The likely effect of milk and dairy consumption on survival was then considered, taking into account the results of published overviews of relationships of these foods with cancer. Results: From meta-analysis of 15 studies the relative risk of stroke and/or heart disease in subjects with high milk or dairy consumption was 0.84 (95% CI 0.76, 0,93) and 0.79 (0.75, 0.82) respectively, relative to the risk in those with low consumption. Four studies reported incident diabetes as an outcome, and the relative risk in the Subjects with the highest intake of milk or diary foods was 0.92 (0.86, 0.97). Conclusions: Set against the proportion of total deaths attributable to the life-threatening diseases in the UK, vascular disease, diabetes and cancer, the results of meta-analyses provide evidence of an overall survival advantage from the consumption of milk and dairy foods.

Evaluating the efficiency of sampling methods in assessing soil macrofauna communities in arable systems

The soil fauna is often a neglected group in many large-scale studies of farmland biodiversity due to difficulties in extracting organisms efficiently from the soil. This study assesses the relative efficiency of the simple and cheap sampling method of handsorting against Berlese-Tullgren funnel and Winkler apparatus extraction. Soil cores were taken from grassy arable field margins and wheat fields in Cambridgeshire, UK, and the efficiencies of the three methods in assessing the abundances and species densities of soil macroinver-tebrates were compared. Handsorting in most cases was as efficient at extracting the majority of the soil macrofauna as the Berlese-Tullgren funnel and Winkler bag methods, although it underestimated the species densities of the woodlice and adult beetles. There were no obvious biases among the three methods for the particular vegetation types sampled and no significant differences in the size distributions of the earthworms and beetles. Proportionally fewer damaged earthworms were recorded in larger (25 x 25 cm) soil cores when compared with smaller ones (15 x 15 cm). Handsorting has many benefits, including targeted extraction, minimum disturbance to the habitat and shorter sampling periods and may be the most appropriate method for studies of farmland biodiversity when a high number of soil cores need to be sampled. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Incorporating data received after a sequential trial has stopped into the final analysis: implementation and comparison of methods

In a sequential clinical trial, accrual of data on patients often continues after the stopping criterion for the study has been met. This is termed “overrunning.” Overrunning occurs mainly when the primary response from each patient is measured after some extended observation period. The objective of this article is to compare two methods of allowing for overrunning. In particular, simulation studies are reported that assess the two procedures in terms of how well they maintain the intended type I error rate. The effect on power resulting from the incorporation of “overrunning data” using the two procedures is evaluated.

Comparison of sample size formulae for 2x2 cross-over designs applied to bioequivalence studies

We consider the comparison of two formulations in terms of average bioequivalence using the 2 × 2 cross-over design. In a bioequivalence study, the primary outcome is a pharmacokinetic measure, such as the area under the plasma concentration by time curve, which is usually assumed to have a lognormal distribution. The criterion typically used for claiming bioequivalence is that the 90% confidence interval for the ratio of the means should lie within the interval (0.80, 1.25), or equivalently the 90% confidence interval for the differences in the means on the natural log scale should be within the interval (-0.2231, 0.2231). We compare the gold standard method for calculation of the sample size based on the non-central t distribution with those based on the central t and normal distributions. In practice, the differences between the various approaches are likely to be small. Further approximations to the power function are sometimes used to simplify the calculations. These approximations should be used with caution, because the sample size required for a desirable level of power might be under- or overestimated compared to the gold standard method. However, in some situations the approximate methods produce very similar sample sizes to the gold standard method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimators in capture-recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture-recapture methods to human populations. Capture-recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln-Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao's lower bound estimator, the Zelterman's estimator, McKendrick's moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao's estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao's and Chapman's estimator. Results indicate that Chao's estimator is less biased than Chapman's estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao's estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data

Background: Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Results: Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. Conclusion: The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

Revisiting Youden's index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous Score for classification of study participants into healthy, or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between Studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might he confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off Value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden's index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel-Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden's index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Functional significance of the signal transduction pathways Akt and Erk in ovarian follicles: in vitro and in vivo studies in cattle and sheep

BACKGROUND: The intracellular signalling mechanisms that regulate ovarian follicle development are unclear; however, we have recently shown differences in the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in dominant compared to subordinate follicles. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of inhibiting Akt and Erk phosphorylation on IGF- and gonadotropin- stimulated granulosa and theca cell function in vitro, and on follicle development in vivo. METHODS: Bovine granulosa and theca cells were cultured for six days and stimulated with FSH and/or IGF, or LH in combination with PD98059 (Erk inhibitor) and/or LY294002 (Akt inhibitor) and their effect on cell number and hormone secretion (estradiol, activin-A, inhibin-A, follistatin, progesterone and androstenedione) determined. In addition, ovarian follicles were treated in vivo with PD98059 and/or LY294002 in ewes on Day 3 of the cycle and follicles were recovered 48 hours later. RESULTS: We have shown that gonadotropin- and IGF-stimulated hormone production by granulosa and theca cells is reduced by treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 in vitro. Furthermore, treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 reduced follicle growth and oestradiol production in vivo. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate an important functional role for the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in follicle function, growth and development.

Bayesian decision procedures for binary and continuous bivariate dose-escalation studies

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on binary measures of undesirable events and continuous measures of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches where undesirable events and therapeutic benefit are both binary. A logistic regression model is used to model the binary responses, while a linear regression model is used to model the continuous responses. Prior distributions for the unknown model parameters are suggested. A gain function is discussed and an optional safety constraint is included. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Efficient and accurate experimental design for enzyme kinetics: Bayesian studies reveal a systematic approach

In areas such as drug development, clinical diagnosis and biotechnology research, acquiring details about the kinetic parameters of enzymes is crucial. The correct design of an experiment is critical to collecting data suitable for analysis, modelling and deriving the correct information. As classical design methods are not targeted to the more complex kinetics being frequently studied, attention is needed to estimate parameters of such models with low variance. We demonstrate that a Bayesian approach (the use of prior knowledge) can produce major gains quantifiable in terms of information, productivity and accuracy of each experiment. Developing the use of Bayesian Utility functions, we have used a systematic method to identify the optimum experimental designs for a number of kinetic model data sets. This has enabled the identification of trends between kinetic model types, sets of design rules and the key conclusion that such designs should be based on some prior knowledge of K-M and/or the kinetic model. We suggest an optimal and iterative method for selecting features of the design such as the substrate range, number of measurements and choice of intermediate points. The final design collects data suitable for accurate modelling and analysis and minimises the error in the parameters estimated. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Uranyl(VI) and lanthanum(III) thio-diglycolamides complexes: synthesis and structural studies involving nitrate complexation

New tri-functional ligands of the type R2NCCCH2SCH2CCNR2 (where R = iso-propyl, n-butyl or iso-butyl) were prepared and characterized. The coordination chemistry of these ligands with uranyl and lanthanum(III) nitrates was studied by using the IR, (HNMR)-H-1 and elemental analysis methods. Structures for the compounds [UO2(NO3)(2)((Pr2NCOCH2SCH2CONPr2)-Pr-i-Pr-i)] [UO2(NO3)(2)((Bu2NCOCH2SCH2CONBu2)-Bu-i-Bu-i)(2)] [La(NO3)(3)((Pr2NCOCH2SCH2CONPr2)-Pr-i-Pr-i)(2)] and [La(NO3)(3)((Bu2NCOCH2SCH2CONBu2)-Bu-i-Bu-i)(2)] were determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. These structures show that the ligand acts as a bidentate chelating ligand and bonds through both the carbamoyl groups to the uranyl and lanthanum(III) nitrate groups. Solvent extraction studies show that the ligand can extract the uranyl ion from the nitric acid medium but does not show any ability to extract the americium (III) ion. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bis- and tris-(methylphosphonic) acid derivatives of a 14-membered tetraazamacrocycle containing pyridine: synthesis, protonation and complexation studies

Two N-methylphosphonic acid derivatives of a 14-membered tetraazamacrocycle containing pyridine have been synthesized, H4L1 and H6L2. The protonation constants of these compounds and the stability constants of complexes of both ligands with Ni2+, Cu2+ and Zn2+ were determined by potentiometric methods at 298 K and ionic strength 0.10 mol dm(-3) in NMe4NO3. The high overall basicity of both compounds is ascribed to the presence of the phosphonate arms. H-1 and P-31 NMR spectroscopic titrations were performed to elucidate the sequence of protonation, which were complemented by conformational analysis studies. The complexes of these ligands have stability constants of the order of or higher than those formed with ligands having the same macrocyclic backbone but acetate arms. At pH = 7 the highest pM values were found for solutions containing the compound with three acetate groups, followed immediately by those of H6L2, however, as expected, the increasing pH favours the complexes of ligands containing phosphonate groups. The single-crystal structure of Na-2[Cu(HL1)]NO3.8H(2)O has shown that the coordination geometry around the copper atom is a distorted square pyramid. Three nitrogen atoms of the macrocyclic backbone and one oxygen atom from one methylphosphonate arm define the basal plane, and the apical coordination is accomplished via the nitrogen atom trans to the pyridine ring of the macrocycle. To achieve this geometric arrangement, the macrocycle adopts a folded conformation. This structure seems consistent with Uv-vis-NIR spectroscopy for the Ni2+ and the Cu2+ complexes and with the EPR for the latter.

Extraction and coordination studies of the unexplored bifunctional ligand carbamoyl methyl sulfoxide (CMSO) with uranium(VI) and cerium(III) nitrates. Synthesis and structures of [UO2(NO3)(2)((PhSOCH2CONBu2)-Bu-i)] and [Ce(NO3)(3)(PhSOCH2CONBu2)(2)]

The bifunctional carbamoyl methyl sulfoxide ligands, PhCH2SOCH2CONHPh (L-1), PhCH2SOCH2CONHCH2Ph (L-2), (PhSOCH2CONPr2)-Pr-i (L-3), PhSOCH2CONBu2 (L-4), (PhSOCH2CONBu2)-Bu-i (L-5) and PhSOCH2CON(C8H17)(2) (L-6) have been synthesized and characterized by spectroscopic methods. The selected coordination chemistry of L-1, L-3, L-4 and L-5 with [UO2(NO3)(2)] and [Ce(NO3)(3)] has been evaluated. The structures of the compounds [UO2(NO3)(2)((PhSOCH2CONBu2)-Bu-i)] (10) and [Ce(NO3)(3)(PhSOCH2CONBu2)(2)] (12) have been determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction methods. Preliminary extraction studies of ligand L-6 with U(VI), Pu(IV) and Am(III) in tracer level showed an appreciable extraction for U(VI) and Pu(IV) in up to 10 M HNO3 but not for Am(III). Thermal studies on compounds 8 and 10 in air revealed that the ligands can be destroyed completely on incineration. The electron spray mass spectra of compounds 8 and 10 in acetone show that extensive ligand distribution reactions occur in solution to give a mixture of products with ligand to metal ratios of 1 : 1 and 2 : 1. However, 10 retains its solid state structure in CH2Cl2.