Anaesthetics, Pain Relief and Critical Care Follow Up (PDF 797 KB)

In 2003/2004 the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety commissioned a value for money follow-up audit of Anaesthetics, Pain Relief and Critical Care (APRCC) services at twelve Trusts and covering fourteen hospital sites. The original study had reported in 1999/2000. Detailed follow-up reports, together with action plans have been agreed locally with Trusts. The objectives of the follow-up review were to: • Ascertain the progress made in implementing recommendations from the original study; • Provide data to compare performance across Trusts in areas such as: - Pre-operative assessments; - Organisation of post-operative pain relief; - Organisation of chronic pain services; - Levels of admissions to critical care units; - Occupancy in critical care units; and åÊ • Assess the extent of progress made by Trusts in the implementation of the Chief Medical Officer’s (CMO) recommendations from ‘Facing the Future –Building on the Lessons of Winter 1999/2000’. To enable comparisons across Trusts, data was collected for the financial year 2002/2003. In addition, relevant findings from the Audit Commission’s Acute Hospitals Portfolio have also been included. The Acute Hospital Portfolio is a collection of reviews that are undertaken at acute and specialist Trusts. They focus on key service areas and are reported along the key performance criteria of patient experience, efficiency and capacity. åÊ

Microbiological diagnosis of community-acquired respiratory tract infections by nucleic acid detection.

Background: Microbiological diagnostic procedures have changed significantly over the last decade. Initially the implementation of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) resulted in improved detection tests for microbes that were difficult or even impossible to detect by conventional methods such as culture and serology, especially in community-acquired respiratory tract infections (CA-RTI). A further improvement was the development of real-time PCR, which allows end point detection and quantification, and many diagnostic laboratories have now implemented this powerful method. Objective: At present, new performant and convenient molecular tests have emerged targeting in parallel many viruses and bacteria responsible for lower and/or upper respiratory tract infections. The range of test formats and microbial agents detected is evolving very quickly and the added value of these new tests needs to be studied in terms of better use of antibiotics, better patient management, duration of hospitalization and overall costs. Conclusions: Molecular tools for a better microbial documentation of CA-RTI are now available. Controlled studies are now required to address the relevance issue of these new methods, such as, for example, the role of some newly detected respiratory viruses or of the microbial DNA load in a particular patient at a particular time. The future challenge for molecular diagnosis will be to become easy to handle, highly efficient and cost-effective, delivering rapid results with a direct impact on clinical management.

Future Development of Clinical Genetic Services (PDF 284 KB)

Public Consultation on the Future Development of Clinical Genetic Services - Part I

Activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex signals the accumulation of evidence in a probability learning task.

In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

A Healthier Future: A Twenty Year Vision for Health and Wellbeing in Northern Ireland 2005-2025

This Regional Strategy, A Healthier Future, aims to provide a vision of how our health and social services will develop and function over the next 20 years. In order to succeed, it must embrace the measures needed to promote health and wellbeing, support, protect and care for the most vulnerable and facilitate the delivery of services.

Assessing multiple sclerosis activity: is the in vitro production of tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukins 2, 6, 4, and 10, and immunoglobulin G of value?

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha, interleukins (IL) 2, 4, 6, and 10, and IgG oligoclonal bands (IgG OB) in vitro production was assessed, after whole-blood stimulation with lipopolysaccharide or concanavalin A, in 61 patients presenting with relapsing-remitting, relapsing-progressive, or chronic progressive multiple sclerosis. Multiple sclerosis patients were receiving no treatment or azathioprine (AZA), cyclosporin, cyclophosphamide, subcutaneous interferon (IFN) beta 1 a, or corticosteroids (CST). Statistical correlations significantly showed that: (a) AZA lowers TNF-alpha (P = 0.002) and increases IL-4 production (P = 0.0024), and IFN-beta 1 a increases TNF-alpha and decreases IL-4 levels; (b) CST has a negative effect on TNF-alpha, IL-6, and IL-4 synthesis; and (c) AZA, IFN-beta 1 a, and CST diminish IgG OB synthesis (P = 0.001). Although our study of the dynamics of TNF-alpha, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10 in vitro production generally found no statistically significant correlations (partly explained by the limited number of values in the various groups), IL-6 was shown to drop during the periods surrounding relapse (P = 0.05) in the absence of treatment, while TNF-alpha (P = 0.04) and IL-6 (P < 0.05) dropped before exacerbation in the presence of AZA. In vitro production of TNF-alpha was closely and positively correlated with that of IL-6, independently of clinical features. The enhanced production of IL-10 detected before or at relapse with AZA and IFN-beta 1 a (trends) may interfere with initiation of the immune reaction and with the development of new CNS lesions. Some discrepancies with previously published results stress the difficulties in studying the state of stimulation of different populations of leukocytes by using a variety of in vitro stimuli and in establishing a correlation between mRNA studies and the amount of final or active protein produced.

A Better Future - 50 Years of Child Care in Northern Ireland

A Better Future - 50 Years of Child Care in Northern Ireland 1950 to 2000

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Fit For The Future - Proposals (PDF 66KB)

This Government came to power committed to reforming and modernising the health and personal social services (HPSS) and returning them to their founding principles and core values. The momentous political change which has taken pl ace in Northern Ireland over the last year means that the new Assembly will now be taking up that challenge. This paper is not a blueprint. It signals the direction in which the Government wishes to move, but it will quite properly be for the Assembly to take final decisions on the way forward. There are many difficult issues to be addressed and change cannot happen overnight. That is the challenge which faces the Assembly and the HPSS. I wish them every success in meeting it. åÊ åÊ

Fit For The Future - Responses (PDF 114KB)

The publication of this report fulfils a commitment made by the Department of Health and Social Services to produce a summary of the responses which it received to the Fit for the Future consultation paper, which invited views on the future of the health and personal social services in Northern Ireland. The report has been prepared following a careful examination of all the responses received during the consultation exercise. It attempts to summarise the comments and åÊviews offered on the extensive range of issues which were raised in the consultation paper. Every effort has been made to ensure that this is an objective summary of the responses, without any further interpretation, colouring or qualification by the Department.

Delivering the Future (PDF 323KB)

Report of the High Risk Pregnancy Group

Audit of the Irish health system for value for money

In April 2000, Deloitte & Touche in conjunction with the York Health Economics Consortium were chosen by The Department of Health & Children to carry out an examination of the health services over the past ten years Download the Report here

Current and Future Supply and Demand Conditions in the Labour Market for Certain Professional Therapists

This report aims to provide a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the situation. The three categories of professionals covered are Chartered Physiotherapists, Occupational Therapists, and Speech and Language Therapists Download the Report here