Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

A pilot study assessing the feasibility of a home-based progressive resistance exercise program and trend toward healing rates for patients with venous leg ulcers

Venous leg ulceration is a serious condition affecting 1 – 3% of the population. Decline in the function of the calf muscle pump is correlated with venous ulceration. Many previous studies have reported an improvement in the function of the calf muscle pump, endurance of the calf muscle and increased range of ankle motion after structured exercise programs. However, there is a paucity of published research that assesses if these improvements result in an improvement in the healing rates of venous ulcers. The primary purpose of this pilot study was to establish the feasibility of a homebased progressive resistance exercise program and examine if there was any clinical significance or trend toward healing. The secondary aims were to examine the benefit of a home-based progressive resistance exercise program on calf muscle pump function and physical parameters. The methodology used was a randomised controlled trial where eleven participants were randomised into an intervention (n = 6) or control group (n = 5). Participants who were randomised to receive a 12-week home-based progressive resistance exercise program were instructed through weekly face-to-face consultations during their wound clinic appointment by the author. Control group participants received standard wound care and compression therapy. Changes in ulcer parameters were measured fortnightly at the clinic (number healed at 12 weeks, percentage change in area and pressure ulcer score healing score). An air plethysmography test was performed at baseline and following the 12 weeks of training to determine changes in calf muscle pump function. Functional measures included maximum number of heel raises (endurance), maximal isometric plantar flexion (strength) and range of ankle motion (ROAM); these tests were conducted at baseline, week 6 and week 12. The sample for the study was drawn from the Princess Alexandra Hospital in Brisbane, Australia. Participants with venous leg ulceration who met the inclusion criteria were recruited. The participants were screened via duplex scanning and ankle brachial pressure index (ABPI) to ensure they did not have any arterial complications. Participants were excluded if there was evidence of cellulitis. Demographic data were obtained from each participant and details regarding medical history, quality of life and geriatric depression scores were collected at baseline. Both the intervention and control group were required to complete a weekly exercise diary to monitor activity levels between groups. To test for the effect of the intervention over time, a repeated measures analysis of variance was conducted on the major outcome variables. Group (intervention versus control) was the between subject factor and time (baseline, week 6, week 12) was the within subject or repeated measures factor. Due to the small sample size, further tests were conducted to check the assumptions of the statistical test to be used. The results showed that Mauchly.s Test, the Sphericity assumptions of repeated measures for ANOVA were met. Further tests of homogeneity of variance assumptions also confirmed that this assumption was met. Data analysis was conducted using the software package SPSS for Windows Release 17.0. The pilot study proved feasible with all of the intervention (n=6) participants continuing with the resistance program for the 12 week duration and no deleterious effects noted. Clinical significance was observed in the intervention group with a 32% greater change in ulcer size (p= 0.26) than the control group, and a 10% (p = 0.74) greater difference between the numbers healed compared to the control group. Statistical significance was observed for the ejection fraction (p = 0.05), residual volume fraction (p = 0.04) and ROAM (p = 0.01), which all improved significantly in the intervention group over time. These results are encouraging, nevertheless, further investigations seem warranted to examine the effect exercise has on the healing rates of venous leg ulcers, with a multistudy site, larger sample size and longer follow up period.

Exponentiated gradient algorithms for conditional random fields and max-margin Markov Networks

Log-linear and maximum-margin models are two commonly-used methods in supervised machine learning, and are frequently used in structured prediction problems. Efficient learning of parameters in these models is therefore an important problem, and becomes a key factor when learning from very large data sets. This paper describes exponentiated gradient (EG) algorithms for training such models, where EG updates are applied to the convex dual of either the log-linear or max-margin objective function; the dual in both the log-linear and max-margin cases corresponds to minimizing a convex function with simplex constraints. We study both batch and online variants of the algorithm, and provide rates of convergence for both cases. In the max-margin case, O(1/ε) EG updates are required to reach a given accuracy ε in the dual; in contrast, for log-linear models only O(log(1/ε)) updates are required. For both the max-margin and log-linear cases, our bounds suggest that the online EG algorithm requires a factor of n less computation to reach a desired accuracy than the batch EG algorithm, where n is the number of training examples. Our experiments confirm that the online algorithms are much faster than the batch algorithms in practice. We describe how the EG updates factor in a convenient way for structured prediction problems, allowing the algorithms to be efficiently applied to problems such as sequence learning or natural language parsing. We perform extensive evaluation of the algorithms, comparing them to L-BFGS and stochastic gradient descent for log-linear models, and to SVM-Struct for max-margin models. The algorithms are applied to a multi-class problem as well as to a more complex large-scale parsing task. In all these settings, the EG algorithms presented here outperform the other methods.

Models of collective cell motion for cell populations with different aspect ratio : diffusion, proliferation and travelling waves

Continuum, partial differential equation models are often used to describe the collective motion of cell populations, with various types of motility represented by the choice of diffusion coefficient, and cell proliferation captured by the source terms. Previously, the choice of diffusion coefficient has been largely arbitrary, with the decision to choose a particular linear or nonlinear form generally based on calibration arguments rather than making any physical connection with the underlying individual-level properties of the cell motility mechanism. In this work we provide a new link between individual-level models, which account for important cell properties such as varying cell shape and volume exclusion, and population-level partial differential equation models. We work in an exclusion process framework, considering aligned, elongated cells that may occupy more than one lattice site, in order to represent populations of agents with different sizes. Three different idealizations of the individual-level mechanism are proposed, and these are connected to three different partial differential equations, each with a different diffusion coefficient; one linear, one nonlinear and degenerate and one nonlinear and nondegenerate. We test the ability of these three models to predict the population level response of a cell spreading problem for both proliferative and nonproliferative cases. We also explore the potential of our models to predict long time travelling wave invasion rates and extend our results to two dimensional spreading and invasion. Our results show that each model can accurately predict density data for nonproliferative systems, but that only one does so for proliferative systems. Hence great care must be taken to predict density data for with varying cell shape.

3D anthropometry : from the ergonomist's perspective

Since the availability of 3D full body scanners and the associated software systems for operations with large point clouds, 3D anthropometry has been marketed as a breakthrough and milestone in ergonomic design. The assumptions made by the representatives of the 3D paradigm need to be critically reviewed though. 3D anthropometry has advantages as well as shortfalls, which need to be carefully considered. While it is apparent that the measurement of a full body point cloud allows for easier storage of raw data and improves quality control, the difficulties in calculation of standardized measurements from the point cloud are widely underestimated. Early studies that made use of 3D point clouds to derive anthropometric dimensions have shown unacceptable deviations from the standardized results measured manually. While 3D human point clouds provide a valuable tool to replicate specific single persons for further virtual studies, or personalize garment, their use in ergonomic design must be critically assessed. Ergonomic, volumetric problems are defined by their 2-dimensional boundary or one dimensional sections. A 1D/2D approach is therefore sufficient to solve an ergonomic design problem. As a consequence, all modern 3D human manikins are defined by the underlying anthropometric girths (2D) and lengths/widths (1D), which can be measured efficiently using manual techniques. Traditionally, Ergonomists have taken a statistical approach to design for generalized percentiles of the population rather than for a single user. The underlying method is based on the distribution function of meaningful single and two-dimensional anthropometric variables. Compared to these variables, the distribution of human volume has no ergonomic relevance. On the other hand, if volume is to be seen as a two-dimensional integral or distribution function of length and girth, the calculation of combined percentiles – a common ergonomic requirement - is undefined. Consequently, we suggest to critically review the cost and use of 3D anthropometry. We also recommend making proper use of widely available single and 2-dimensional anthropometric data in ergonomic design.

Genetic evidence for the vital function of osterix in cementogenesis

To date, attempts to regenerate a complete tooth, including the critical periodontal tissues associated with the tooth root, have not been successful. Controversy still exists regarding the origin of the cell source for cellular cementum (epithelial or mesenchymal). This disagreement may be partially due to a lack of understanding of the events leading to the initiation and development of the tooth roots and supportive tissues, such as the cementum. Osterix (OSX) is a transcriptional factor essential for osteogenesis, but its role in cementogenesis has not been addressed. In the present study, we first documented a close relationship between the temporal- and spatial-expression pattern of OSX and the formation of cellular cementum. We then generated 3.6 Col 1-OSX transgenic mice, which displayed accelerated cementum formation vs. WT controls. Importantly, the conditional deletion of OSX in the mesenchymal cells with two different Cre systems (the 2.3 kb Col 1 and an inducible CAG-CreER) led to a sharp reduction in cellular cementum formation (including the cementum mass and mineral deposition rate) and gene expression of dentin matrix protein 1 (DMP1) by cementocytes. However, the deletion of the OSX gene after cellular cementum formed did not alter the properties of the mature cementum as evaluated by backscattered SEM and resin-cast SEM. Transient transfection of Osx in the cementoblasts in vitro significantly inhibited cell proliferation and increased cell differentiation and mineralization. Taken together, these data support 1) the mesenchymal origin of cellular cementum (from PDL progenitor cells); 2) the vital role of OSX in controlling the formation of cellular cementum; and 3) the limited remodeling of cellular cementum in adult mice.

Ruthenium(II) dichloro or dithiocyanato complexes with 4,4′:2′,2″:4″,4‴-quaterpyridinium ligands : towards photosensitisers with enhanced low-energy absorption properties

Fourteen new complexes of the form cis-\[RuIIX2(R2qpy2+)2]4+ (R2qpy2+ = a 4,4′:2′,2″:4″,4‴-quaterpyridinium ligand, X = Cl− or NCS−) have been prepared and isolated as their PF6− salts. Characterisation involved various techniques including 1H NMR spectroscopy and +electrospray or MALDI mass spectrometry. The UV–Vis spectra display intense intraligand π → π∗ absorptions, and also metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (MLCT) bands with two resolved maxima in the visible region. Red-shifts in the MLCT bands occur as the electron-withdrawing strength of the pyridinium groups increases, while replacing Cl− with NCS− causes blue-shifts. Cyclic voltammograms show quasi-reversible or reversible RuIII/II oxidation waves, and several ligand-based reductions that are irreversible. The variations in the redox potentials correlate with changes in the MLCT energies. A single-crystal X-ray structure has been obtained for a protonated form of a proligand salt, \[(4-(CO2H)Ph)2qpyH3+]\[HSO4]3·3H2O. Time-dependent density functional theory calculations give adequate correlations with the experimental UV–Vis spectra for the two carboxylic acid-functionalised complexes in DMSO. Despite their attractive electronic absorption spectra, these dyes are relatively inefficient photosensitisers on electrodes coated with TiO2 or ZnO. These observations are attributed primarily to weak electronic coupling with the surfaces, since the DFT-derived LUMOs include no electron density near the carboxylic acid anchors.

Multi-scale numerical simulations of thermal expansion properties of CNT-reinforced nanocomposites

In this work, the thermal expansion properties of carbon nanotube (CNT)-reinforced nanocomposites with CNT content ranging from 1 to 15 wt% were evaluated using a multi-scale numerical approach, in which the effects of two parameters, i.e., temperature and CNT content, were investigated extensively. For all CNT contents, the obtained results clearly revealed that within a wide low-temperature range (30°C ~ 62°C), thermal contraction is observed, while thermal expansion occurs in a high-temperature range (62°C ~ 120°C). It was found that at any specified CNT content, the thermal expansion properties vary with temperature - as temperature increases, the thermal expansion rate increases linearly. However, at a specified temperature, the absolute value of the thermal expansion rate decreases nonlinearly as the CNT content increases. Moreover, the results provided by the present multi-scale numerical model were in good agreement with those obtained from the corresponding theoretical analyses and experimental measurements in this work, which indicates that this multi-scale numerical approach provides a powerful tool to evaluate the thermal expansion properties of any type of CNT/polymer nanocomposites and therefore promotes the understanding on the thermal behaviors of CNT/polymer nanocomposites for their applications in temperature sensors, nanoelectronics devices, etc.

Algorithm for queue estimation with loop detector of time occupancy in off-ramps on signalized motorways

Long traffic queues on off-ramps significantly compromise the safety and throughput of motorways. Obtaining accurate queue information is crucial for countermeasure strategies. However, it is challenging to estimate traffic queues with locally installed inductive loop detectors. This paper deals with the problem of queue estimation with the interpretation of queuing dynamics and the corresponding time-occupancy distribution over motorway off-ramps. A novel algorithm for real-time queue estimation with two detectors is presented and discussed. Results derived from microscopic traffic simulation validated the effectiveness of the algorithm and revealed some of its useful features: (a) long and intermediate traffic queues could be accurately measured, (b) relatively simple detector input (i.e., time occupancy) was required, and (c) the estimation philosophy was independent with signal timing changes and provided the potential to cooperate with advanced strategies for signal control. Some issues concerning field implementation are also discussed.

Evaluation of primary epidermal lamellar density in the forefeet of near-term fetal Australian feral and domesticated horses

Objective: To investigate the density of the primary epidermal lamellae (PEL) around the solar circumference of the forefeet of near-term fetal feral and nonferal (ie, domesticated) horses. Sample: Left forefeet from near-term Australian feral (n = 14) and domesticated (4) horse fetuses. Procedures: Near-term feral horse fetuses were obtained from culled mares within 10 minutes of death; fetuses that had died in utero 2 weeks prior to anticipated birth date and were delivered from live Thoroughbred mares were also obtained. Following disarticulation at the carpus, the left forefoot of each fetus was frozen during dissection and data collection. In a standard section of each hoof, the stratum internum PEL density was calculated at the midline center (12 o'clock) and the medial and lateral break-over points (11 and 1 o'clock), toe quarters (10 and 2 o'clock), and quarters (4 and 6 o'clock). Values for matching lateral and medial zones were averaged and expressed as 1 density. Density differences at the 4 locations between the feral and domesticated horse feet were assessed by use of imaging software analysis. Results: In fetal domesticated horse feet, PEL density did not differ among the 4 locations. In fetal feral horse feet, PEL density differed significantly among locations, with a pattern of gradual reduction from the dorsal to the palmar aspect of the foot. The PEL density distribution differed significantly between fetal domesticated and feral horse feet. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: Results indicated that PEL density distribution differs between fetal feral and domesticated horse feet, suggestive of an adaptation of feral horses to environment challenges.

Coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model for multi-area ATC with risk control

In the decision-making of multi-area ATC (Available Transfer Capacity) in electricity market environment, the existing resources of transmission network should be optimally dispatched and coordinately employed on the premise that the secure system operation is maintained and risk associated is controllable. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the ATC probability density distribution of specified areas under the influence of several uncertainty factors, based on which, a coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model with the maximal risk benefit as its objective is developed for multi-area ATC. The NSGA-II is applied to calculate the ATC of each area, which considers the risk cost caused by relevant uncertainty factors and the synchronous coordination among areas. The essential characteristics of the developed model and the employed algorithm are illustrated by the example of IEEE 118-bus test system. Simulative result shows that, the risk of multi-area ATC decision-making is influenced by the uncertainties in power system operation and the relative importance degrees of different areas.

A multi-objective optimization approach for coordinating available transfer capability with risk control

In the electricity market environment, coordination of system reliability and economics of a power system is of great significance in determining the available transfer capability (ATC). In addition, the risks associated with uncertainties should be properly addressed in the ATC determination process for risk-benefit maximization. Against this background, it is necessary that the ATC be optimally allocated and utilized within relative security constraints. First of all, the non-sequential Monte Carlo stimulation is employed to derive the probability density distribution of ATC of designated areas incorporating uncertainty factors. Second, on the basis of that, a multi-objective optimization model is formulated to determine the multi-area ATC so as to maximize the risk-benefits. Then, the solution to the developed model is achieved by the fast non-dominated sorting (NSGA-II) algorithm, which could decrease the risk caused by uncertainties while coordinating the ATCs of different areas. Finally, the IEEE 118-bus test system is served for demonstrating the essential features of the developed model and employed algorithm.

Laboratory measurement of hydraulic conductivity functions of two unsaturated sandy soils during drying and wetting processes

The importance of applying unsaturated soil mechanics to geotechnical engineering design has been well understood. However, the consumption of time and the necessity for a specific laboratory testing apparatus when measuring unsaturated soil properties have limited the application of unsaturated soil mechanics theories in practice. Although methods for predicting unsaturated soil properties have been developed, the verification of these methods for a wide range of soil types is required in order to increase the confidence of practicing engineers in using these methods. In this study, a new permeameter was developed to measure the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils using the steady-state method and directly measured suction (negative pore-water pressure) values. The apparatus is instrumented with two tensiometers for the direct measurement of suction during the tests. The apparatus can be used to obtain the hydraulic conductivity function of sandy soil over a low suction range (0-10 kPa). Firstly, the repeatability of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity measurement, using the new permeameter, was verified by conducting tests on two identical sandy soil specimens and obtaining similar results. The hydraulic conductivity functions of the two sandy soils were then measured during the drying and wetting processes of the soils. A significant hysteresis was observed when the hydraulic conductivity was plotted against the suction. However, the hysteresis effects were not apparent when the conductivity was plotted against the volumetric water content. Furthermore, the measured unsaturated hydraulic conductivity functions were compared with predictions using three different predictive methods that are widely incorporated into numerical software. The results suggest that these predictive methods are capable of capturing the measured behavior with reasonable agreement.

Multiple types of data are required to identify the mechanisms influencing the spatial expansion of melanoma cell colonies

Background The expansion of cell colonies is driven by a delicate balance of several mechanisms including cell motility, cell-to-cell adhesion and cell proliferation. New approaches that can be used to independently identify and quantify the role of each mechanism will help us understand how each mechanism contributes to the expansion process. Standard mathematical modelling approaches to describe such cell colony expansion typically neglect cell-to-cell adhesion, despite the fact that cell-to-cell adhesion is thought to play an important role. Results We use a combined experimental and mathematical modelling approach to determine the cell diffusivity, D, cell-to-cell adhesion strength, q, and cell proliferation rate, ?, in an expanding colony of MM127 melanoma cells. Using a circular barrier assay, we extract several types of experimental data and use a mathematical model to independently estimate D, q and ?. In our first set of experiments, we suppress cell proliferation and analyse three different types of data to estimate D and q. We find that standard types of data, such as the area enclosed by the leading edge of the expanding colony and more detailed cell density profiles throughout the expanding colony, does not provide sufficient information to uniquely identify D and q. We find that additional data relating to the degree of cell-to-cell clustering is required to provide independent estimates of q, and in turn D. In our second set of experiments, where proliferation is not suppressed, we use data describing temporal changes in cell density to determine the cell proliferation rate. In summary, we find that our experiments are best described using the range D = 161 - 243 ?m2 hour-1, q = 0.3 - 0.5 (low to moderate strength) and ? = 0.0305 - 0.0398 hour-1, and with these parameters we can accurately predict the temporal variations in the spatial extent and cell density profile throughout the expanding melanoma cell colony. Conclusions Our systematic approach to identify the cell diffusivity, cell-to-cell adhesion strength and cell proliferation rate highlights the importance of integrating multiple types of data to accurately quantify the factors influencing the spatial expansion of melanoma cell colonies.

Review of the fire performance of LSF walls

Load bearing LSF walls are commonly made of cold-formed steel frames, gypsum plasterboards and insulation, and their fire performance is an important aspect of design. Many experimental and numerical studies have been conducted on the fire performance of LSF walls at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT). These studies have shown that increasing the number or thickness or quality of gypsum plasterboards has improved the fire resistance ratings (FRR) of LSF walls while the use of cavity insulation has reduced their FRR. Therefore new LSF wall systems with external insulation sandwiched between two layers of plasterboards were proposed, which provided higher FRR than cavity insulated walls. There are also other parameters that can improve the fire performance of LSF walls such as the steel type, stud geometry and depth, type of screw fasteners used, joints in the plasterboard and the plasterboard fall off time. This paper presents a review of the fire performance of LSF walls as a function of these parameters based on our research at QUT. Their effects on both the thermal and structural performance of LSF walls are discussed in detail and suitable improvements are recommended, for example, improved plasterboard joint types.