Lease maturity and initial rent: is there a term structure for UK commercial property leases?

This paper investigates the relationship between lease maturity and rent in commercial property. Over the last decade market-led changes to lease structures, the threat of government intervention and the associated emergence of the Codes of Practice for commercial leases have stimulated growing interest in pricing of commercial property leases. Seminal work by Grenadier (1995) derived a set of hypotheses about the pricing of different lease lengths in different market conditions. Whilst there is a compelling theoretical case for and a strong intuitive expectation of differential pricing of different lease maturities, to date the empirical evidence is inconclusive. Two Swedish studies have found mixed results (Gunnelin and Soderbergh 2003 and Englund et al 2003). In only half the cases is the null hypothesis that lease length has no effect rejected. In the UK, Crosby et al (2003) report counterintuitive results. In some markets, they find that short lease terms are associated with low rents, whilst in others they are associated with high rents. Drawing upon a substantial database of commercial lettings in central London (West End and City of London) over the last decade, we investigate the relationship between rent and lease maturity. In particular, we test whether a building quality variable omitted in previous studies provides empirical results that are more consistent with the theoretical and intuitive a priori expectations. It is found that initial leases rates are upward sloping with the lease term and that this relationship is constant over time.

Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.

Energy generation and consumption in Ghana

Electricity consumption in Ghana is estimated to be increasing by 10% per annum due to the demand from the growing population. However, current sources of production (hydro and thermal facilities) generate only 66% of the current demand. Considering current trends, it is difficult to substantiate these basic facts, because of the lack of information. As a result, research into the existing sources of generating electricity, electricity consumption and prospective projects has been performed. This was achieved using three key techniques; review of literature, empirical studies and modelling. The results presented suggest that, current annual installed capacity of energy generation (i.e. 1960 MW) must be increased to 9,405.59 MW, assuming 85% plant availability. This is then capable to coop with the growing demand and it would give access to the entire population as well as support commercial and industrial activities for the growth of the economy. The prospect of performing this research is with the expectation to present an academic research agenda for further exploration into the subject area, without which the growth of the country would be stagnant.

A method to weight three categories of adaptive thermal comfort

The adaptive thermal comfort theory considers people as active rather than passive recipients in response to ambient physical thermal stimuli, in contrast with conventional, heat-balance-based, thermal comfort theory. Occupants actively interact with the environments they occupy by means of utilizing adaptations in terms of physiological, behavioural and psychological dimensions to achieve ‘real world’ thermal comfort. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the physiological, behavioural and psychological portions of the adaptation process by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on the case studies conducted in the UK and China. Apart from three categories of adaptations which are viewed as criteria, six possible alternatives are considered: physiological indices/health status, the indoor environment, the outdoor environment, personal physical factors, environmental control and thermal expectation. With the AHP technique, all the above-mentioned criteria, factors and corresponding elements are arranged in a hierarchy tree and quantified by using a series of pair-wise judgements. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to improve the quality of these results. The proposed quantitative weighting method provides researchers with opportunities to better understand the adaptive mechanisms and reveal the significance of each category for the achievement of adaptive thermal comfort.

Ownership Advantages in Cross-border Real Estate Development: Some Evidence from European Markets

Drawing upon European industry and country case studies, this paper investigates the scope and drivers of cross-border real estate development. It is argued that the real estate development process encompasses a diverse range of activities and actors. It is inherently localised, the production process is complex and emphermal, and the outputs are heterogeneous. It analyses a transactions database of European real estate markets to provide insights into the extent of, and variations in, market penetration by non-domestic real estate developers. The data were consistent with the expectation that non-domestic real estate developers from mature markets would have a high level of market penetration in immature markets. Compared to western European markets, the CEE real estate office sales by developers were dominated by US, Israeli and other EU developers. This pattern is consistent with the argument that non-domestic developers have substantial Dunning-type ownership advantages when entering immature real estate markets. However, the data also suggested some unexpected patterns. Relative to their GDP, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands and Israel accounted for large proportions of sales by developers. All are EU countries (except Israel) with small, open, affluent, highly traded economies. Further, the data also indicate that there may be a threshold where locational disadvantages outweigh ownership advantages and deter cross-border real estate development.

Stochastic perturbations to dynamical systems: a response theory approach

Using the formalism of the Ruelle response theory, we study how the invariant measure of an Axiom A dynamical system changes as a result of adding noise, and describe how the stochastic perturbation can be used to explore the properties of the underlying deterministic dynamics. We first find the expression for the change in the expectation value of a general observable when a white noise forcing is introduced in the system, both in the additive and in the multiplicative case. We also show that the difference between the expectation value of the power spectrum of an observable in the stochastically perturbed case and of the same observable in the unperturbed case is equal to the variance of the noise times the square of the modulus of the linear susceptibility describing the frequency-dependent response of the system to perturbations with the same spatial patterns as the considered stochastic forcing. This provides a conceptual bridge between the change in the fluctuation properties of the system due to the presence of noise and the response of the unperturbed system to deterministic forcings. Using Kramers-Kronig theory, it is then possible to derive the real and imaginary part of the susceptibility and thus deduce the Green function of the system for any desired observable. We then extend our results to rather general patterns of random forcing, from the case of several white noise forcings, to noise terms with memory, up to the case of a space-time random field. Explicit formulas are provided for each relevant case analysed. As a general result, we find, using an argument of positive-definiteness, that the power spectrum of the stochastically perturbed system is larger at all frequencies than the power spectrum of the unperturbed system. We provide an example of application of our results by considering the spatially extended chaotic Lorenz 96 model. These results clarify the property of stochastic stability of SRB measures in Axiom A flows, provide tools for analysing stochastic parameterisations and related closure ansatz to be implemented in modelling studies, and introduce new ways to study the response of a system to external perturbations. Taking into account the chaotic hypothesis, we expect that our results have practical relevance for a more general class of system than those belonging to Axiom A.

Timing and the holding periods of institutional real estate

The literature on investors’ holding periods for equities and bonds suggest that high transaction costs are associated with longer holding periods. Return volatility, by contrast, is associated with short-term trading and hence shorter holding periods. High transaction costs and the perceived illiquidity of the real estate market leads to an expectation of longer holding periods. Further, work on depreciation and obsolescence might suggest that there is an optimal holding period. However, there is little empirical work in the area. In this paper, data from the Investment Property Databank are used to investigate sales rate and holding period for UK institutional real estate between 1981 and 1994. Sales rates are investigated using the Cox proportional hazards framework. The results show longer holding periods than those claimed by investors. There are marked differences by type of property and sales rates vary over time. Contemporaneous returns are positively associated with an increase in the rate of sale. The results shed light on investor behaviour.

Institutional capacity and implementation issues in farmers' rights

Armed with the ‘equity’ and ‘conservation’ arguments that have a deep resonance with farming communities, developing countries are crafting a range of measures designed to protect farmers’ access to innovations, reward their contributions to the conservation and enhancement of plant genetic resources and provide incentives for sustained on-farm conservation. These measures range from the commericialization of farmers’ varieties to the conferment of a set of legally enforceable rights on farming communities – the exercise of which is expected to provide economic rewards to those responsible for on-farm conservation and innovation. The rights-based approach has been the cornerstone of legislative provision for implementing farmers’ rights in most developing countries. In drawing up these measures, developing countries do not appear to have systematically examined or provided for the substantial institutional capacity required for the effective implementation of farmers’ rights provisions. The lack of institutional capacity threatens to undermine any prospect of serious implementation of these provisions. More importantly, the expectation that significant incentives for on-farm conservation and innovation will flow from these ‘rights’ may be based on a flawed understanding of the economics of intellectual property rights. While farmers’ rights may provide only limited rewards for conservation, they may still have the effect of diluting the incentives for innovative institutional breeding programs – with the private sector increasingly relying on non-IPR instruments to profit from innovation. The focus on a rights-based approach may also draw attention away from alternative stewardship-based approaches to the realization of farmers’ rights objectives.

Reliability, sufficiency, and the decomposition of proper scores

Scoring rules are an important tool for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasting schemes. A scoring rule is called strictly proper if its expectation is optimal if and only if the forecast probability represents the true distribution of the target. In the binary case, strictly proper scoring rules allow for a decomposition into terms related to the resolution and the reliability of a forecast. This fact is particularly well known for the Brier Score. In this article, this result is extended to forecasts for finite-valued targets. Both resolution and reliability are shown to have a positive effect on the score. It is demonstrated that resolution and reliability are directly related to forecast attributes that are desirable on grounds independent of the notion of scores. This finding can be considered an epistemological justification of measuring forecast quality by proper scoring rules. A link is provided to the original work of DeGroot and Fienberg, extending their concepts of sufficiency and refinement. The relation to the conjectured sharpness principle of Gneiting, et al., is elucidated.

Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score

References (20)Cited By (1)Export CitationAboutAbstract Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule.

The information content of REIT credit rating actions and transparency

We examine the short-run and long-run price reaction of equity REIT shares following credit rating actions, testing the transparency of the REIT structure. Generally, the economic effect on the stock price is subdued for both upgrades and downgrades compared to prior literature examining the broader U.S. equity market. An examination of trading volume revealed a significant increase in trading in reaction to downgrade credit rating changes, with a more subdued response to upgrades. The findings support the notion that REITs are more publicly forthcoming about the expectation of positive news in comparison to negative news.

Mixed copper, silver, and gold cyanides, (MxM′1–x)CN: tailoring chain structures to influence physical properties

Binary mixed-metal variants of the one-dimensional MCN compounds (M = Cu, Ag, and Au) have been prepared and characterized using powder X-ray diffraction, vibrational spectroscopy, and total neutron diffraction. A solid solution with the AgCN structure exists in the (CuxAg1–x)CN system over the range (0 ≤ x ≤ 1). Line phases with compositions (Cu1/2Au1/2)CN, (Cu7/12Au5/12)CN, (Cu2/3Au1/3)CN, and (Ag1/2Au1/2)CN, all of which have the AuCN structure, are found in the gold-containing systems. Infrared and Raman spectroscopies show that complete ordering of the type [M–C≡N–M′–N≡C−]n occurs only in (Cu1/2Au1/2)CN and (Ag1/2Au1/2)CN. The sense of the cyanide bonding was determined by total neutron diffraction to be [Ag–NC–Au–CN−]n in (Ag1/2Au1/2)CN and [Cu–NC–Au–CN−]n in (Cu1/2Au1/2)CN. In contrast, in (Cu0.50Ag0.50)CN, metal ordering is incomplete, and strict alternation of metals does not occur. However, there is a distinct preference (85%) for the N end of the cyanide ligand to be bonded to copper and for Ag–CN–Cu links to predominate. Contrary to expectation, aurophilic bonding does not appear to be the controlling factor which leads to (Cu1/2Au1/2)CN and (Ag1/2Au1/2)CN adopting the AuCN structure. The diffuse reflectance, photoluminescence, and 1-D negative thermal expansion (NTE) behaviors of all three systems are reported and compared with those of the parent cyanide compounds. The photophysical properties are strongly influenced both by the composition of the individual chains and by how such chains pack together. The NTE behavior is also controlled by structure type: the gold-containing mixed-metal cyanides with the AuCN structure show the smallest contraction along the chain length on heating.

Discerning policy and drivers for sustainable facilities management practice

Due to the changing nature of the facilities management (FM) profession, facilities managers are increasingly engaged with the evolving sustainability agenda in the UK and the development or uptake of sustainability policies within their organisations. This study investigates how facilities managers are engaging with the sustainability agenda and the drivers, policy issues and information they use to improve their sustainability performance management. A web based self-administered questionnaire survey of facilities managers in the UK was conducted to identify drivers and issues that influence and support good sustainable practices. A total of 268 facilities managers responded. The results indicate that legislation is the most important driver for the implementation of sustainable practices. Corporate image and Organisational ethos are also recognised. However demand for efficient monitoring, management and reporting on environmental impact is not highly rated even though the top three issues of sustainability managed by facilities managers are energy management, waste and recycling management and carbon footprint. In addition, facilities managers are expected to take ownership of activities assigned to the reduction of carbon emission. Government industries and organisation with high turnover are more likely to have a sustainability policy. Financial constraints are the main barriers while legislations are the main driver for implementing sustainability. For non-profit organisations and the charitable sector, financial constraints are no hindrance to implementing a sustainability policy. The conclusion drawn is that sustainability agendas continue to be influenced by regulated environmental issues rather than a balanced approach which takes into consideration the wider social and economic aspects of sustainability. While this scenario is far from ideal, the expectation is that the organisation will trust FM to take a vital role in delivering a comprehensive sustainability policy due to the rising tide of legislation, public scrutiny, as well as the needed business case for genuinely embracing sustainability. However, as the integration of sustainability with core business strategies is continuously evolving the emphasis on different drivers will vary from organisation to organisation as well as the responsibilities of facilities managers.

Motivational factors impacting the productivity of construction master craftsmen in Kuwait

In today's global economic conditions, improving the productivity of the construction industry is becoming more pressing than ever. Several factors impact the efficiency of construction operatives, but motivation is among the most important. Since low productivity is one of the significant challenges facing the construction industry in the State of Kuwait, the objective of this case study is to identify, explore, and rank the relative importance of the factors perceived to impact the motivational level of master craftsmen involved in primary construction trades. To achieve this objective, a structured questionnaire survey comprising 23 factors, which were shortlisted based on relevant previous research on motivation, the input of local industry experts, and numerous interviews with skilled operatives, was distributed to a large number of master craftsmen. Using the “Relative Importance Index” technique, the following prominent factors are identified: (1) payment delay; (2) rework; (3) lack of a financial incentive scheme; (4) the extent of change orders during execution; (5) incompetent supervisors; (6) delays in responding to Requests For Information (RFI); (7) overcrowding and operatives interface; (8) unrealistic scheduling and performance expectation; (9) shortage of materials on site; and (10) drawings quality level. The findings can be used to provide industry practitioners with guidance for focusing, acting upon, and controlling the critical factors influencing the performance of master craftsmen, hence, assist in achieving an efficient utilization of the workforce, and a reasonable level of competitiveness and cost effective operation.

Adapted customer relationship management implementation framework:facilitating value creation in nursing homes

This paper proposes a framework to support Customer Relationship Management (CRM) implementation in nursing homes. The work extends research by Cheng et al. (2005) who conducted in-depth questionnaires to identify critical features (termed value-characteristics), which are areas identified as adding the most value if implemented. Although Cheng et al. did proposed an implementation framework, summary of, and inconsistent inclusion of value-characteristics, limits the practical use of this contribution during implementation. In this paper we adapt the original framework to correct perceived deficiencies. We link the value characteristics to operational, analytical, strategic and/or collaborative CRM solution types, to allow consideration in context of practical implementation solutions. The outcome of this paper shows that, practically, a 'one solution meets all characteristic' approach to CRM implementation within nursing homes is inappropriate. Our framework, however, supports implementers in identifying how value can be gained when implementing a specific CRM solution within nursing homes; which subsequently support project management and expectation management.