The Impact of Banking Structural Reform on Household Retail Finance. ECRI Commentary No. 13, 7 October 2014

There are two main objectives behind the EC proposal on banking structural reform: the financial stability objective and the economic efficiency objective. If it is implemented, the reform should reinforce the stability and economic efficiency of household retail activities through lower contagion, better resolvability in the event of failure, more harmonised supervisory practices across the EU and more resilient household demand for retail loans. However, it could also trigger counterproductive effects that could partly undermine the expected benefits. These potential negative effects are not appropriately assessed in the impact study of the proposal published in January 2014 and will require further consideration in the coming months. In particular, the stability of household retail finance could be strengthened by placing more emphasis on bankruptcy risks of retail banks; the transfer of existing systemic activities towards less regulated and supervised markets and reputational risk. A better analysis of the borrowing costs for households (impacted by the potential decreasing diversification of the funding base of banks and scarcer liquidity) and implementation costs could help regulators to achieve the objective of efficient household activities.

The Eastern Partnership Riga Summit should not be a non-event. EPC Commentary, 20 May 2015

The upcoming 21-22 May Eastern Partnership (EaP) Riga Summit will take place against the backdrop of the new geopolitical reality in the EU’s Eastern neighbourhood, in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and ongoing war in Eastern Ukraine. Given the extremely complex geopolitical context, the importance of the Summit and the message it delivers to the partner countries – particularly to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, which have made European integration their foreign policy goal – cannot be underestimated. The Summit needs to send a strong, unambiguous signal reconfirming the EU’s commitment to the EaP, and offer a clear roadmap for the future. If the Summit turns out to be a non-event, with an empty declaration, it risks being perceived as rewarding the bullying policies of Russia.

Event monitoring in a small and business enterprise

This paper presents an overview of the role and responsibilities of the system administrator, focusing on the need to monitor its technological infrastructure. The informatics infrastructure monitoring is, nowadays without a doubt, one of the main key points in business support. Large enterprises are no longer the only ones to feel the need to use these monitoring tools, but small and medium-sized enterprises, which also have IT environments of an increasing complexity, feel such a need. This results directly from the operation of how the business is supported on IT platforms as support for people and processes. When a system, which is vital to the organization, fails either at the hardware or software level, compromises the operating capacity and consequently the business continuity. Having this always in mind, it is extremely important to adopt monitoring systems that proactively or reactively, reduce the overall time of breaks caused by failures. A monitoring system is the way to ensure confidence in all components and the operational readiness of IT infrastructure.

Correlation Between Sonographic and In Vivo Measurement of A1 Pulleys in Trigger Fingers

The thickness of 210 A1 pulleys of 21 male and female healthy volunteers in two different age groups (20-35 y and 50-70 y) were measured by ultrasound. In a second group, the thickness of 15 diseased A1 pulleys and 15 A1 pulleys of the corresponding other hand of 10 patients with the clinical diagnosis of trigger finger were measured by ultrasound. During open trigger finger release, a strip of A1 pulley was excised and immediately measured using an electronic caliper. The average pulley thickness of healthy volunteers was 0.43-0.47 mm, compared to 0.77-0.79 mm in patients with trigger finger. Based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a diagnostic cut-off value of the pulley thickness at 0.62 mm was defined in order to differ a trigger finger from a healthy finger (sensitivity and specificity of 85%). The correlation between sonographic and effective intra-operative measurements of pulley thickness was linear and very strong (Pearson coefficient 0.86-0.90). In order to distinguish between healthy and diseased A1 pulleys, 0.62 mm is a simple value to use, which can be applied regardless of age, sex, body mass index (BMI) and height in adults.

(Table 1) AMS radiocarbon ages from ODP Sites 169-1033 and 169-1034

This paper explores the paleoseismic record potentially preserved in the upper 40 m of hydraulic piston cores collected in 1996 at two sites in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, during ocean drilling program (ODP) Leg 169S. The ODP cores are missing 1-2 m of water-rich sediment directly underlying the seafloor, but this sediment is preserved in shorter piston cores collected in 1989 and 1991. The upper part of the ODP cores consists of rhythmically laminated (varved) marine mud with intercalated massive beds, interpreted to be debris flow deposits. Some of the debris flow deposits are linked to past earthquakes, including the 1946 Vancouver Island earthquake (M7.2), a great (M8-9) plate-boundary earthquake at the Cascadia subduction zone in January 1700, and a large crustal or plate-boundary earthquake about 1000 yr ago. Earthquakes may also be responsible for debris flows in about AD 1600, 1500, 1250, 1150, 850, 450, 350, 180, and BC 200, 220, 500, 900, and 1050. If so, the average recurrence interval for moderate to large earthquakes, which trigger debris flows in Saanich Inlet, is about 150 yr. This recurrence interval is broadly consistent with the frequency of moderate to large earthquakes in the region during the historical period. Debris flows, however, can also be triggered by non-seismic processes, making it difficult to assemble a complete earthquake record from the Saanich Inlet cores. We propose that extensive debris flow deposits, emplaced by single large failures or many smaller coincident failures, probably have a seismic origin.

Tropical climate and vegetation simulations during the Heinrich event 1 using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) - the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM)

Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under a glacial climate background.