The impact of the elderly on inflation rates in developed countries

What explains the cross-national variation in inflation rates in developed countries? Previous literature has emphasised the role of ideas and institutions, and to a lesser extent interest groups, while leaving the role of electoral politics comparatively unexplored. This paper seeks to redress this neglect by focusing on one case where electoral politics matters for inflation: the share of the population above 65 years old in a country. I argue that countries with a larger share of elderly have lower inflation because older people are both more inflation averse and politically powerful, forcing governments to pursue lower inflation. I test my argument in three steps. First, logistic regression analysis of survey data confirms older people are more inflation averse. Second, panel data regression analysis of party manifesto data reveals that European countries with more old people have more economically orthodox political parties. Third, time series cross-section regression analyses demonstrate that the share of the elderly is negatively correlated with inflation in both a sample of 21 advanced OECD economies and a larger sample of 175 countries. Ageing may therefore push governments to adopt a low inflation regime.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.

Invasive plants: representativeness of research from tropical countries in the global context

Biological invasions threaten the native biota of several countries and this threat is even greater in the tropical regions that have the greatest biodiversity. In order to evaluate the representativeness of studies on invasive plants in tropical countries compared to the world, as well as the region of origin and habits of the most reported invasive plants in research, we analyzed the publications from eight of the most important international journals that address the theme, from January 1995 to December 2004. The articles on biological invasions were classified as theoretical or as case studies, and according to their approach, main question, where the study was conducted, region of origin and habit of the invasive plant. Case studies predominated, as did questions about the environment`s susceptibility to the invasion, the species` invasive power and the impacts it had. The most reported invasive species were herbaceous plants from Asia and Europe. Few articles address tropical environments and only one referred to Brazil. Most referred to North America and Europe. This small number of publications in the tropics indicates the need for a global projection on this subject and underscores the lack of consistent and organized data to understand the phenomenon and propose effective strategies to combat biological invasion.

Quantitative analysis of indexed publications on seventeen model organisms in nine countries, from 1974 to 2006

Developed countries have an even distribution of published papers on the seventeen model organisms. Developing countries have biased preferences for a few model organisms which are associated with endemic human diseases. A variant of the Hirsch-index, that we call the mean (mo)h-index (""model organism h-index""), shows an exponential relationship with the amount of papers published in each country on the selected model organisms. Developing countries cluster together with low mean (mo)h-indexes, even those with high number of publications. The growth curves of publications on the recent model Caenorhabditis elegans in developed countries shows different formats. We also analyzed the growth curves of indexed publications originating from developing countries. Brazil and South Korea were selected for this comparison. The most prevalent model organisms in those countries show different growth curves when compared to a global analysis, reflecting the size and composition of their research communities.

A gravity model for trade between Vietnam and twenty-three European countries

This thesis examines the bilateral trade between Vietnam and twenty three European countries based on a gravity model and panel data for years 1993 to 2004. Estimates indicate that economic size, market size and real exchange rate of Vietnam and twenty three European countries play major role in bilateral trade between Vietnam and these countries. Distance and history, however, do not seem to drive the bilateral trade. The results of gravity model are also applied to calculate the trade potential between Vietnam and twenty three European countries. It shows that Vietnam’s trade with twenty three European countries has considerable room for growth.

Kvinnors upplevelse av planerad hemförlossning i Skandinavien : Women´s experience of planned home birth in the Scandinavian countries

Background: In Sweden and Norway planned home birth is not included in the health care system. In Denmark women with expected low risk birth have the right to choose home birth. Registrations of home births in the Nordic countries are not completed and women’s experiences of planned home birth in Scandinavian context are not earlier described.Objective: The aim of this study was to describe women’s experiences of planned home birth in the Scandinavian countries.Design: Inductive content analysis. Fifty-three Scandinavian women who have experienced planned home birth have replied an open question in a questionnaire. Findings: In the analysis five categories and twelve subcategories emerged. The categories were, to feel secure, experiences of support, being in control, harmony and insecurity. The women felt secure and calm in their own homes. They felt being in control, secure, support and trust in the midwife, relatives and the own body. What worried the women most in presence of the delivery was that the midwife should not be present. Keywords: Home birth, experiences, women.

We did it together : Fathers´ experiences of planned home birth in the Nordic countries

Sammanfattning: Bakgrund: för många pappor kan det vara en av livets största och bästa stund att närvara vid när deras barn föds. Det finns studier som beskriver pappors upplevelse av sjukhusförlossning, däremot finns det få studier som beskriver pappors upplevelse av planerad hemförlossning. Syftet med den här studien är att beskriva pappans upplevelser och erfarenheter av planerad hemförlossning. Metod: i denna studie medverkar 105 pappor från de nordiska länderna som har deltagit i planerad hemförlossning mellan 2009-2011. Materialet från en öppen enkätfråga analyserades med hjälp av deduktiv ansats. Den öppna frågan löd ”beskriv gärna förlossningen med egna ord”. Resultat: papporna upplevde den planerade hemförlossningen som lugn och säker, mycket tack vare den professionella barnmorskan och den välbekanta miljön. Att få vara hemma med sin partner och om så önskades, sin familj var högt skattat. Födelseprocessen hemma beskrevs av papporna som att ”vi gjorde det tillsammans” och ”det var vår egen förlossning”. Papporna uttryckte delaktighet i förlossningsflödet. De kände också att de fick ett barn och var en del av en vacker förlossning full av kärlek. Konklusion: att välkomna ett barn hemma i en lugn miljö där paret känner sig trygga och ostörda, kan underlätta en positiv och meningsfull förlossningsupplevelse.

Nordic Journal of English Studies : Irish Studies in the Nordic Countries

This special issue of Nordic Journal of English Studies is devoted to the research in Irish Studies being carried out in Scandinavia by a group of scholars based in Denmark, Norway and Sweden, as well as scholars associated—in one way or another—with Scandinavia. Denmark is represented by the University of Aalborg; Norway, by scholars affiliated to the Universities of Agder, the Artic University of Norway, Bergen, and Stavanger; and Sweden is represented by scholars from the universities of Dalarna, Göteborg, Stockholm, Södertörn and Umeå. Included also in this special issue is the work of two former students, who completed their Masters’ degree in Irish literature at DUCIS (Dalarna University Centre for Irish Studies), Sweden—from Norway and China respectively. The collection also contains an article by Dara Waldron, Limerick Institute of Technology, Ireland, whof recently presented his research at the Higher Seminar in Dalarna. Contributions by the Irish poet, Mary O’Donnell, who participated in the Nordic Irish Studies Network (NISN) conference, hosted by DUCIS in December 2012, are also included.