997 resultados para Economic forecasts


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This article begins from the assumption (which may seem controversial to many) that anyone who thinks that our current economic crisis is a temporary blip until ‘normal service’ (i.e. a return to ‘business as usual’) is resumed, profoundly misunderstands the severity and significance of what’s happening to the global economy and its impacts on the future prosperity of the island of Ireland. The economic recession represents nothing short of a re-structuring of the global economy and the creation of a new dispensation between governments, markets and citizens. The full implications of the re-regulation of the market, with the state bailing out and part nationalising the financial sector in both jurisdictions on the island (as in other parts of the world) have yet to be seen, but what we are witnessing is the emergence of a new economic model. Those who think we can, or even ought to, return to the pre-2008 economic model, are gravely mistaken. The current economic downturn marks the end of the ‘neo-liberal’ model and the beginnings of the transition (an inevitable transition, this article will argue) towards a new low carbon, renewable, green and sustainable economy and society.

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Using a large-scale data set, this article considers the role and growing importance of the Rights Commissioners in Ireland. The Rights Commissioners’ service, which has no parallel in any other anglophone industrial relations system, provides an informal and accessible method for the resolution of disputes and the vindication of employment rights. In recent years, the number of cases handled by the Rights Commissioners has grown hugely. A close examination of the cases handled by the service suggests that the Rights Commissioners allow vulnerable workers to pursue cases of alleged breaches of employment rights. The service is seen as holding lessons for other economies in terms of developing a model of economic citizenship that has as a dimension the enforcement of employment rights.

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This article explores the complex and neglected picture of occupational and environmental disease healthcare costs specifically relating to asbestos. Diagnosed mesothelioma cases in Scotland in one calendar year were used to investigate the subject in greater depth. Data from UK sources on asbestos disease types recorded in 2000 and their disease treatment costs were obtained. Acute care economic costs of these diseases are estimated. One hundred and twenty diagnosed, recorded, and treated cases of asbestos-related diseases occurred in 2000 in Scotland. Mesothelioma accounted for 100 cases and directly cost Scottish National Health Service hospitals an estimated 942,038 pounds. The estimated UK figure in 2000 was at least 16,014,646 pounds because official figures for diagnosed and recorded deaths from mesothelioma are running at over 1700 a year with rises predicted for 2010 of 2000 deaths. By 2003, 50,000 people in the UK had died from diagnosed and recorded mesothelioma since records began. Earlier disease treatment costs would have been significantly lower than those in 2000 but, at 2000 prices, cost to the UK was roughly 471,019,000 pounds in acute hospital expenditure. Figures for primary care costs, including caregiver costs, are incomplete or unknown. These disease costs are substantial and have some international generalizability. Treatment patterns and costs vary greatly. Many lung cancer cases due to asbestos exposure occur globally for each mesothelioma case. Hence figures provided in this article are certain to be gross underestimates of the total health service and personal economic costs of asbestos illness and treatment in Scotland.

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The rationality of investors during asset price bubbles has been the subject of considerable debate. An analysis of the British Railway Mania, which occurred in the 1840s, suggests that investors may have been myopic, as their expectations were only accurate in the short-term, but they remained rational, as they acted in a utility maximising manner given their expectations. Investors successfully incorporated forecasts of short-term dividend changes into their valuations, but were unable to predict longer-term changes. When short-term growth is controlled for, it appears that the railways were priced consistently with the non-railways throughout the entire episode.