Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Population demography and the evolution of helping behaviors.

Limited dispersal may favor the evolution of helping behaviors between relatives as it increases their relatedness, and it may inhibit such evolution as it increases local competition between these relatives. Here, we explore one way out of this dilemma: if the helping behavior allows groups to expand in size, then the kin-competition pressure opposing its evolution can be greatly reduced. We explore the effects of two kinds of stochasticity allowing for such deme expansion. First, we study the evolution of helping under environmental stochasticity that may induce complete patch extinction. Helping evolves if it results in a decrease in the probability of extinction or if it enhances the rate of patch recolonization through propagules formed by fission of nonextinct groups. This mode of dispersal is indeed commonly found in social species. Second, we consider the evolution of helping in the presence of demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is below its value maximizing deme size (undersaturation), helping evolves, but under stringent conditions unless positive density dependence (Allee effect) interferes with demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is above its value maximizing deme size (oversaturation), helping may also evolve, but only if it reduces negative density-dependent competition.

Modularity of auditory spatial representations

Abstract : Auditory spatial functions are of crucial importance in everyday life. Determining the origin of sound sources in space plays a key role in a variety of tasks including orientation of attention, disentangling of complex acoustic patterns reaching our ears in noisy environments. Following brain damage, auditory spatial processing can be disrupted, resulting in severe handicaps. Complaints of patients with sound localization deficits include the inability to locate their crying child or being over-loaded by sounds in crowded public places. Yet, the brain bears a large capacity for reorganization following damage and/or learning. This phenomenon is referred as plasticity and is believed to underlie post-lesional functional recovery as well as learning-induced improvement. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the organization and plasticity of different aspects of auditory spatial functions. Overall, we report the outcomes of three studies: In the study entitled "Learning-induced plasticity in auditory spatial representations" (Spierer et al., 2007b), we focused on the neurophysiological and behavioral changes induced by auditory spatial training in healthy subjects. We found that relatively brief auditory spatial discrimination training improves performance and modifies the cortical representation of the trained sound locations, suggesting that cortical auditory representations of space are dynamic and subject to rapid reorganization. In the same study, we tested the generalization and persistence of training effects over time, as these are two determining factors in the development of neurorehabilitative intervention. In "The path to success in auditory spatial discrimination" (Spierer et al., 2007c), we investigated the neurophysiological correlates of successful spatial discrimination and contribute to the modeling of the anatomo-functional organization of auditory spatial processing in healthy subjects. We showed that discrimination accuracy depends on superior temporal plane (STP) activity in response to the first sound of a pair of stimuli. Our data support a model wherein refinement of spatial representations occurs within the STP and that interactions with parietal structures allow for transformations into coordinate frames that are required for higher-order computations including absolute localization of sound sources. In "Extinction of auditory stimuli in hemineglect: space versus ear" (Spierer et al., 2007a), we investigated auditory attentional deficits in brain-damaged patients. This work provides insight into the auditory neglect syndrome and its relation with neglect symptoms within the visual modality. Apart from contributing to a basic understanding of the cortical mechanisms underlying auditory spatial functions, the outcomes of the studies also contribute to develop neurorehabilitation strategies, which are currently being tested in clinical populations.

Capacitación en meliponicultura de la población de Poço Redondo (Sergipe, Brasil)

Con la deforestación, los incendios y la utilización indebida de los agrotóxicos, las abejas nativas de Brasil corren un serio peligro de extinción. Ello se debe a que estas abejas construyen sus nidos en los huecos de los troncos de los árboles y también a que sus fuentes de alimentación son cada vez más escasas. Por ello cada vez son más los que se dedican a la meliponicultura, de esta manera se conservan las abejas y además, se obtiene una renta extra. Mediante el presente proyecto se capacitó en meliponicultura a una muestra de la población de Poço Redondo, para que de esta manera se empiece a recuperar su entorno y también su situación económica actual. Para poder conseguirlo se llevó a cabo el diseño del curso mediante la documentación previa, el trabajo de campo y el análisis de los datos. El resultado fue la capacitación, con la que se formó y concienció ambientalmente a personas para que se dedicaran a la meliponicultura de manera profesional.

Why do convertible issuers simultaneously repurchase stock? An arbitrage-based explanation

We examine why firms combine convertible debt offerings with stock repurchases. In 2006, 33% of the convertible issuers in the US simultaneously repurchased stock. These combined transactions are inconsistent with traditional motivations for convertible issuance. We document that convertible arbitrage drives these stock repurchases. Convertible debt arbitrageurs simultaneously buy convertibles and short sell the issuer’s common stock, resulting in downward pressure on the stock price. To prevent such short-selling activity, firms repurchase their stock directly from arbitrageurs. We show that combined transactions exhibit lower short-selling activity and that convertible arbitrage explains both the size and speed of the stock repurchases.

Fiscal sustainability across government tiers

This paper analyses how fiscal adjustment comes about when both central and sub-national governments are involved in consolidation. We test sustainability of public debt with a fiscal rule for both the federal and regional government. Results for the German Länder show that lower tier governments bear a relatively smaller part of the burden of debt consolidation, if they consolidate at all. Most of the fiscal adjustment occurs via central government debt. In contrast, both the US federal and state levels contribute to consolidation of public finances.

The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability

This paper examines the issue of fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of the time series properties of the primary surplus and debt, and find evidence of a positive long run relationship. Consequently we emphasise, that especially for emerging markets, it is important to recognise the implications of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to world-wide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.

Estudio, análisis y mejora de un sistema de gestión de expedientes

El proyecto consistió en el estudio, propuesta y realización de una serie de mejoras derivadas del análisis de un sistema de gestión de expedientes. El sistema analizado es SEDAS, un producto de gestión de los procesos de recobro de deudas desarrollado por Steria. Las mejoras se concentraron en la parametrización y mejora de diversos apartados tales como el modelo de datos, el sistema de generación de informes o la interfaz gráfica.

Electoral Uncertainty and the Deficit Bias in a New Keynesian Economy

Recent attempts to incorporate optimal fiscal policy into New Keynesian models subject to nominal inertia, have tended to assume that policy makers are benevolent and have access to a commitment technology. A separate literature, on the New Political Economy, has focused on real economies where there is strategic use of policy instruments in a world of political conflict. In this paper we combine these literatures and assume that policy is set in a New Keynesian economy by one of two policy makers facing electoral uncertainty (in terms of infrequent elections and an endogenous voting mechanism). The policy makers generally share the social welfare function, but differ in their preferences over fiscal expenditure (in its size and/or composition). Given the environment, policy shall be realistically constrained to be time-consistent. In a sticky-price economy, such heterogeneity gives rise to the possibility of one policy maker utilising (nominal) debt strategically to tie the hands of the other party, and influence the outcome of any future elections. This can give rise to a deficit bias, implying a sub-optimally high level of steady-state debt, and can also imply a sub-optimal response to shocks. The steady-state distortions and inflation bias this generates, combined with the volatility induced by the electoral cycle in a sticky-price environment, can significantly

Three essays on bankruptcy risk

Abstract Market prices of corporate bond spreads and of credit default swap (CDS) rates do not match each other. In this paper, we argue that the liquidity premium, the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) option and actual market segmentation explain the pricing differences. Using the European transaction data from Reuters and Bloomberg, we estimate the liquidity premium that is time- varying and firm-specific. We show that when time-dependent liquidity premiums are considered, corporate bond spreads and CDS rates behave in a much closer way than previous studies have shown. We find that high equity volatility drives pricing differences that can be explained by the CTD option.

When is Monetary Policy All we Need?

We consider optimal monetary and scal policies in a New Keynesian model of a small open economy with sticky prices and wages. In this benchmark setting monetary policy is all we need - analytical results demonstrate that variations in government spending should play no role in the stabilization of shocks. In extensions we show, rstly, that this is even when true when allowing for in ation inertia through backward-looking rule-of-thumb price and wage-setting, as long as there is no discrepancy between the private and social evaluation of the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure. Secondly, the optimal neutrality of government spending is robust to the issuance of public debt. In the presence of debt government spending will deviate from the optimal steady-state but only to the extent required to cover the deficit, not to provide any additional macroeconomic stabilization. However, unlike government spending variations in tax rates can play a complementary role to monetary policy, as they change relative prices rather than demand.

Disentangling the effects of key innovations on the diversification of Bromelioideae (bromeliaceae).

The evolution of key innovations, novel traits that promote diversification, is often seen as major driver for the unequal distribution of species richness within the tree of life. In this study, we aim to determine the factors underlying the extraordinary radiation of the subfamily Bromelioideae, one of the most diverse clades among the neotropical plant family Bromeliaceae. Based on an extended molecular phylogenetic data set, we examine the effect of two putative key innovations, that is, the Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and the water-impounding tank, on speciation and extinction rates. To this aim, we develop a novel Bayesian implementation of the phylogenetic comparative method, binary state speciation and extinction, which enables hypotheses testing by Bayes factors and accommodates the uncertainty on model selection by Bayesian model averaging. Both CAM and tank habit were found to correlate with increased net diversification, thus fulfilling the criteria for key innovations. Our analyses further revealed that CAM photosynthesis is correlated with a twofold increase in speciation rate, whereas the evolution of the tank had primarily an effect on extinction rates that were found five times lower in tank-forming lineages compared to tank-less clades. These differences are discussed in the light of biogeography, ecology, and past climate change.

The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium

This paper addresses the issue on whether tax reforms consisten with lower public debt-to-GDP in the long-run can lead to a more efficient and equitable economy. To this end we solve a heterogeneous agent model comprised of a government, a representative capitalist and representative skilled and unskilled workers, under both rational expectations and adaptive learning. Our main ndings are that (i) reductions in capital taxation, while bene cial at the aggregate level, lead to increased inequality mainly due to the substitutability of un- skilled labour and capital; (ii) a fall in taxation for skilled labour is Pareto improving, which is largely explained by its complementarity with the other factor inputs; (iii) all agents would prefer increasing the tax rate on capital to increasing the tax rate on skilled and un- skilled labour since it leads to relatively lower welfare losses; and (iv) heterogeneity in initial beliefs under adaptive learning quantitatively matters for welfare.

Does China overinvest? Evidence from a panel of Chinese firms

This paper addresses the hotly-debated question: do Chinese firms overinvest? A firm-level dataset of 100,000 firms over the period of 2000-07 is employed for this purpose. We initially calculate measures of investment efficiency, which is typically negatively associated with overinvestment. Despite wide disparities across various ownership groups, industries and regions, we find that corporate investment in China has become increasingly efficient over time. However, based on direct measures of overinvestment that we subsequently calculate, we find evidence of overinvestment for all types of firms, even in the most efficient and most profitable private sector. We find that the free cash flow hypothesis provides a good explanation for China‟s overinvestment, especially for the private sector, while in the state sector, overinvestment is attributable to the poor screening and monitoring of enterprises by banks.

Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations

The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition are uncertain. Drawing on the evidence in Alesina and Ardagna (2010), we emphasize whether or not the fiscal consolidation is driven by tax rises or expenditure cuts. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary and/or successful in stabilizing government debt.