Time to Extinction in Branching Processes and its Application in Epidemiology

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60J80; Secondary 92D30.

Impact of the carrier relaxation paths on two-state operation in quantum dot lasers

We study InGaAs QD laser operating simultaneously at ground (GS) and excited (ES) states under 30ns pulsed-pumping and distinguish three regimes of operation depending on the pump current and the carrier relaxation pathways. An increased current leads to an increase in ES intensity and to a decrease in GS intensity (or saturation) for low pump range, as typical for the cascade-like pathway. Both the GS and ES intensities are steadily increased for high current ranges, which prove the dominance of the direct capture pathway. The relaxation oscillations are not pronounced for these ranges. For the mediate currents, the interplay between the both pathways leads to the damped large amplitude relaxation oscillations with significant deviation of the relaxation oscillation frequency from the initial value during the pulse.

Supporting learners’ agentic engagement with feedback:a systematic review and a taxonomy of recipience processes

Much has been written in the educational psychology literature about effective feedback and how to deliver it. However, it is equally important to understand how learners actively receive, engage with, and implement feedback. This article reports a systematic review of the research evidence pertaining to this issue. Through an analysis of 195 outputs published between 1985 and early 2014, we identified various factors that have been proposed to influence the likelihood of feedback being used. Furthermore, we identified diverse interventions with the common aim of supporting and promoting learners' agentic engagement with feedback processes. We outline the various components used in these interventions, and the reports of their successes and limitations. Moreover we propose a novel taxonomy of four recipience processes targeted by these interventions. This review and taxonomy provide a theoretical basis for conceptualizing learners' responsibility within feedback dialogues and for guiding the strategic design and evaluation of interventions. Receiving feedback on one's skills and understanding is an invaluable part of the learning process, benefiting learners far more than does simply receiving praise or punishment (Black & Wiliam, 1998 Black, P., & Wiliam, D. (1998). Assessment and classroom learning. Assessment in Education: Principles, Policy & Practice, 5, 7–74. doi:10.1080/0969595980050102[Taylor & Francis Online]; Hattie & Timperley, 2007 Hattie, J., & Timperley, H. (2007). The power of feedback. Review of Educational Research, 77, 81–112. doi:10.3102/003465430298487[CrossRef], [Web of Science ®]). Inevitably, the benefits of receiving feedback are not uniform across all circumstances, and so it is imperative to understand how these gains can be maximized. There is increasing consensus that a critical determinant of feedback effectiveness is the quality of learners' engagement with, and use of, the feedback they receive. However, studies investigating this engagement are underrepresented in academic research (Bounds et al., 2013 Bounds, R., Bush, C., Aghera, A., Rodriguez, N., Stansfield, R. B., & Santeen, S. A. (2013). Emergency medicine residents' self-assessments play a critical role when receiving feedback. Academic Emergency Medicine, 20, 1055–1061. doi:10.1111/acem.12231[CrossRef], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®]), which leaves a “blind spot” in our understanding (Burke, 2009 Burke, D. (2009). Strategies for using feedback students bring to higher education. Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education, 34, 41–50. doi:10.1080/02602930801895711[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®]). With this blind spot in mind, the present work sets out to systematically map the research literature concerning learners' proactive recipience of feedback. We use the term “proactive recipience” here to connote a state or activity of engaging actively with feedback processes, thus emphasizing the fundamental contribution and responsibility of the learner (Winstone, Nash, Rowntree, & Parker, in press Winstone, N. E., Nash, R. A., Rowntree, J., & Parker, M. (in press). ‘It'd be useful, but I wouldn't use it’: Barriers to university students' feedback seeking and recipience. Studies in Higher Education. doi: 10.1080/03075079.2015.1130032[Taylor & Francis Online]). In other words, just as Reeve and Tseng (2011 Reeve, J., & Tseng, M. (2011). Agency as a fourth aspect of student engagement during learning activities. Contemporary Educational Psychology, 36, 257–267. doi:10.1016/j.cedpsych.2011.05.002[CrossRef], [Web of Science ®]) defined “agentic engagement” as a “student's constructive contribution into the flow of the instruction they receive” (p. 258), likewise proactive recipience is a form of agentic engagement that involves the learner sharing responsibility for making feedback processes effective.

Resting state morphology predicts the effect of theta burst stimulation in false belief reasoning:ventrolateral prefrontal cortex in false belief reasoning

When required to represent a perspective that conflicts with one's own, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) suggests that the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (rvlPFC) supports the inhibition of that conflicting self-perspective. The present task dissociated inhibition of self-perspective from other executive control processes by contrasting belief reasoning-a cognitive state where the presence of conflicting perspectives was manipulated-with a conative desire state wherein no systematic conflict existed. Linear modeling was used to examine the effect of continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) to rvlPFC on participants' reaction times in belief and desire reasoning. It was anticipated that cTBS applied to rvlPFC would affect belief but not desire reasoning, by modulating activity in the Ventral Attention System (VAS). We further anticipated that this effect would be mediated by functional connectivity within this network, which was identified using resting state fMRI and an unbiased model-free approach. Simple reaction-time analysis failed to detect an effect of cTBS. However, by additionally modeling individual measures from within the stimulated network, the hypothesized effect of cTBS to belief (but, importantly, not desire) reasoning was demonstrated. Structural morphology within the stimulated region, rvlPFC, and right temporoparietal junction were demonstrated to underlie this effect. These data provide evidence that inconsistencies found with cTBS can be mediated by the composition of the functional network that is being stimulated. We suggest that the common claim that this network constitutes the VAS explains the effect of cTBS to this network on false belief reasoning. Hum Brain Mapp, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Államadósság, optimális politika, finanszírozás (State Debt, Optimal Policy, and Financing)

A fejlett ipari országoknak is az államadósság csökkentése vagy akár szinten tartása okozza az egyik legfontosabb gazdaságpolitikai dilemmát. Az euróövezet tagállamai esetében is ez a kritérium tűnik a legkevésbé teljesíthetőnek, de Japán és az Egyesült Államok is leküzdhetetlennek tűnő államadóssággal birkózik. A tanulmány rövid áttekintést ad néhány meghatározó közgazdasági megközelítésről, amelyek az államadósság szintjének hosszú távú alakulása mögött meghúzódó tényezőket, gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket magyarázzák. Végül az elméletek alapján tanulságokat fogalmaz meg a magyar államadósság kezelését illetően az 1990–2010 közötti folyamatok ismeretében. _____ The macroeconomic developments of the last decade have confirmed that one of the most important dilemmas that even developed economies have to face is the reduction or even sustaining of the state debt. In case of the eurozone member states this criterion is the most difficult to be accomplished, furthermore the United States and Japan are among the global powers that have to cope with state debts which seems to be insurmountable. The aim of this paper is to provide a brief overview of some decisive economic approaches (Barro [1979], Lucas and Stokey [1983], Marcet and Scott [2007], Martin [2009] etc.) that explain the factors behind the formation of long-run state debt level and economic policy measures accompanying state debt management. The paper also attempts to draw some lessons for the Hungarian state debt management in view of the 1990-2010 processes.

The eye of the beholder: The impact of a district implementation plan of state mandates as perceived by the implementers

The purpose of this inquiry was to investigate the impact of a large, urban school district's experience in implementing a mandated school improvement plan and to examine how that plan was perceived, interpreted, and executed by those charged with the task. The research addressed the following questions: First, by whom was the district implementation plan designed, and what factors were considered in its construction? Second, what impact did the district implementation plan have on those charged with its implementation? Third, what impact did the district plan have on the teaching and learning practices of a particular school? Fourth, what aspects of the implemention plan were perceived as most and least helpful by school personnel in achieving stated goals? Last, what were the intended and unintended consequences of an externally mandated and directed plan for improving student achievement? The implementation process was measured against Fullan's model as expounded upon in The Meaning of Educational Change (1982) and The New Meaning of Educational Change (1990). The Banya implementation model (1993), because it added a dimension not adequately addressed by Fullan, was also considered.^ A case study was used as the methodological framework of this qualitative study. Sources of data used in this inquiry included document analysis, participant observations in situ, follow-up interviews, the "long" interview, and triangulation. The study was conducted over a twelve-month period. Findings were obtained from the content analysis of interview transcripts of multiple participants. Results were described and interpreted using the Fullan and Banya models as the descriptive framework. A cross-case comparison of the multiple perspectives of the same phenomena by various participants was constructed.^ The study concluded that the school district's implementation plan to improve student achievement was closely aligned to Fullan's model, although not intentionally. The research also showed that where there was common understanding at all levels of the organization as to the expectations for teachers, level of support to be provided, and availability of resources, successful implementation occured. The areas where successful implementation did not occur were those where the complexity of the changes were underestimated and processes for dealing with unintended consequences were not considered or adequately addressed. The unique perspectives of the various participants, from the superintendent to the classroom teacher, are described. Finally, recommendations for enhancement of implementation are offered and possible topics for further research studies are postulated. ^

Adult education directors' perceptions of performance indicators for adult education programs in the state of Florida

Current demands for accountability in education emphasize outcome-based program evaluation and tie program funding to individual student performance. As has been the case for elementary and secondary programs, demands for accountability have increased pressure on adult educators to show evidence of the benefits of their programs in order to justify their financial support. In Florida, recent legislation fundamentally changes the delivery of adult education in the state by establishing a performance-based funding system that is based on outcomes related to the retention, completion, and employment of program participants.^ A performance-based funding system requires an evaluation process that stresses outcome indicators over indicators that focus on program context or process. Although the state has adopted indicators of program quality to evaluate its adult education programs, these indicators focus mostly on program processes rather than student outcomes. In addition, the indicators are not specifically tied to workforce development outcomes, a priority to federal and local funding agents.^ Improving the accountability of adult education programs and defining the role of these programs in Florida's Workforce Development System has become a priority to policy makers across the state. Another priority has been to involve adult education practitioners in every step of this process.^ This study was conducted in order to determine what performance indicators, as judged by the directors and supervisors of adult education programs in the state of Florida, are important and feasible in measuring the quality and effectiveness of these programs. The results of the study indicated that, both statewide and by region, the respondents consistently gave the highest ratings on both importance and feasibility to the indicators of Program Context, which reflect the needs, composition, and structure of the programs, and to the indicators of Educational Gain, which reflect learner progress in the attainment of basic skills and competencies. In turn, the respondents gave the lowest ratings on both importance and feasibility to the indicators in the areas of Return on State's Investment, Efficiency, Retention, and Workforce Training. In general, the indicators that received high ratings for importance also received high ratings for feasibility. ^

Understanding China's climate change mitigation policy development: Structures, processes and outcomes

Climate change is one of the most important and urgent issues of our time. Since 2006, China has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. China’s role in an international climate change solution has gained increased attention. Although much literature has addressed the functioning, performance, and implications of existing climate change mitigation policies and actions in China, there is insufficient literature that illuminates how the national climate change mitigation policies have been formulated and shaped. This research utilizes the policy network approach to explore China’s climate change mitigation policy making by examining how a variety of government, business, and civil society actors have formed networks to address environmental contexts and influence the policy outcomes and changes. The study is qualitative in nature. Three cases are selected to illustrate structural and interactive features of the specific policy network settings in shaping different policy arrangements and influencing the outcomes in the Chinese context. The three cases include the regulatory evolution of China’s climate change policy making; the country’s involvement in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activity, and China’s exploration of voluntary agreement through adopting the Top-1000 Industrial Energy Conservation Program. The historical analysis of the policy process uses both primary data from interviews and fieldwork, and secondary data from relevant literature. The study finds that the Chinese central government dominates domestic climate change policy making; however, expanded action networks that involve actors at all levels have emerged in correspondence to diverse climate mitigation policy arrangements. The improved openness and accessibility of climate change policy network have contributed to its proactive engagement in promoting mitigation outcomes. In conclusion, the research suggests that the policy network approach provides a useful tool for studying China’s climate change policy making process. The involvement of various types of state and non-state actors has shaped new relations and affected the policy outcomes and changes. In addition, through the cross-case analysis, the study challenges the “fragmented authoritarianism” model and argues that this once-influential model is not appropriate in explaining new development and changes of policy making processes in contemporary China.

The impact of social comparison processes on hoped-for possible selves, self-regulatory processes, and mental health outcomes in young adults

In exploring the role of social influences in the development of the self, the current study evaluated whether young adults use social comparisons in developing their hoped-for possible selves and, if so, whether their developmental process correlates with self-regulatory processes and positive mental health outcomes. The current study found the following: (1) the domains of hoped-for possible selves among young adults were related to the gender of the social comparison target, (2) the direction of young adults' social comparison processes (upward or downward) did not significantly influence self-regulatory processes (self-efficacy and outcome expectancy) toward achieving their hoped-for possible selves, (3) strong masculine gender identification related to greater outcome expectancy, while strong feminine gender identification related to both greater self-efficacy and outcome expectancy, and (4) self-efficacy related to less state anxiety, trait anxiety, and depression, while outcome expectancy related only to less trait anxiety. Males and females were found to use traditional gender role identification in forming their hoped-for possible selves.

Blue Development: Analyzing the Role of the State in the Rise of Aquaculture in India

In this paper, I analyze the processes that transformed aquaculture into a major export industry in India, in order to understand the role aquaculture has as a social and economic development strategy of the Indian state. The discussion employs a political ecology approach as I explore the complex relations between access and control of India’s coastal resources, society, and economy. I argue that many of the forces that initiated the development of aquaculture in India, namely the involvement of the Indian state, continue to shape the industry today. I also discuss how despite widespread social conflict, the shrimp farming industry, in particular, continues to thrive and grow in rural India. My analysis utilizes ethnographic and archival data collected over the course of 9 months of fieldwork in Tamil Nadu, India. Keywords: rural development, aquaculture, India, State, ethnography

Seawater carbonate chemistry and diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum (CCMA 106) biological processes during experiments, 2010

CO2/pH perturbation experiments were carried out under two different pCO2 levels (39.3 and 101.3 Pa) to evaluate effects of CO2-induced ocean acidification on the marine diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum. After acclimation (>20 generations) to ambient and elevated CO2 conditions (with corresponding pH values of 8.15 and 7.80, respectively), growth and photosynthetic carbon fixation rates of high CO2 grown cells were enhanced by 5% and 12%, respectively, and dark respiration stimulated by 34% compared to cells grown at ambient CO2. The half saturation constant (Km) for carbon fixation (dissolved inorganic carbon, DIC) increased by 20% under the low pH and high CO2 condition, reflecting a decreased affinity for HCO3- or/and CO2 and down-regulated carbon concentrating mechanism (CCM). In the high CO2 grown cells, the electron transport rate from photosystem II (PSII) was photoinhibited to a greater extent at high levels of photosynthetically active radiation, while non-photochemical quenching was reduced compared to low CO2 grown cells. This was probably due to the down-regulation of CCM, which serves as a sink for excessive energy. The balance between these positive and negative effects on diatom productivity will be a key factor in determining the net effect of rising atmospheric CO2 on ocean primary production.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with early life stages of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, 2010

Several experiments have shown a decrease of growth and calcification of organisms at decreased pH levels. There is a growing interest to focus on early life stages that are believed to be more sensitive to environmental disturbances such as hypercapnia. Here, we present experimental data, acquired in a commercial hatchery, demonstrating that the growth of planktonic mussel (Mytilus edulis) larvae is significantly affected by a decrease of pH to a level expected for the end of the century. Even though there was no significant effect of a 0.25-0.34 pH unit decrease on hatching and mortality rates during the first 2 days of development nor during the following 13-day period prior to settlement, final shells were respectively 4.5±1.3 and 6.0±2.3% smaller at pHNBS~7.8 (pCO2~1100-1200 µatm) than at a control pHNBS of ~8.1 (pCO2~460-640 µatm). Moreover, a decrease of 12.0±5.4% of shell thickness was observed after 15d of development. More severe impacts were found with a decrease of ~0.5 pHNBS unit during the first 2 days of development which could be attributed to a decrease of calcification due to a slight undersaturation of seawater with respect to aragonite. Indeed, important effects on both hatching and D-veliger shell growth were found. Hatching rates were 24±4% lower while D-veliger shells were 12.7±0.9% smaller at pHNBS~7.6 (pCO2~1900 µatm) than at a control pHNBS of ~8.1 (pCO2~540 µatm). Although these results show that blue mussel larvae are still able to develop a shell in seawater undersaturated with respect to aragonite, the observed decreases of hatching rates and shell growth could lead to a significant decrease of the settlement success. As the environmental conditions considered in this study do not necessarily reflect the natural conditions experienced by this species at the time of spawning, future studies will need to consider the whole larval cycle (from fertilization to settlement) under environmentally relevant conditions in order to investigate the potential ecological and economical losses of a decrease of this species fitness in the field.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and processes during experiments with phytoplankton Emiliania huxleyi (strain Bergen 2005), 2010

The response of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi to rising CO2 concentrations is well documented for acclimated cultures where cells are exposed to the CO2 treatments for several generations prior to the experiment. The exact number of generations required for acclimation to CO2-induced changes in seawater carbonate chemistry, however, is unknown. Here we show that Emiliania huxleyi's short-term response (26 h) after cultures (grown at 500 µatm) were abruptly exposed to changed CO2 concentrations (~190, 410, 800 and 1500 ?atm) is similar to that obtained with acclimated cultures under comparable conditions in earlier studies. Most importantly, from the lower CO2 levels (190 and 410 ?atm) to 750 and 1500 µatm calcification decreased and organic carbon fixation increased within the first 8 to 14 h after exposing the cultures to changes in carbonate chemistry. This suggests that Emiliania huxleyi rapidly alters the rates of essential metabolical processes in response to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry, establishing a new physiological "state" (acclimation) within a matter of hours. If this relatively rapid response applies to other phytoplankton species, it may simplify interpretation of studies with natural communities (e.g. mesocosm studies and ship-board incubations), where often it is not feasible to allow for a pre-conditioning phase before starting experimental incubations.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and processes during experiments with Emiliania huxleyi (2005 Bergen) and Coccolithus braarudii (RCC 1200), 2010

The physiological performance of two coccolithophore species,Emiliania huxleyi and Coccolithus braarudii, was investigated during long-term exposure to elevated pCO2 levels. Mono-specific cultures were grown over 152 (E. huxleyi) and 65 (C. braarudii) generations while pCO2 was gradually increased to maximum levels of 1150 ?atm (E. huxleyi) and 930 ?atm (C. braarudii) and kept constant thereafter. Rates of cell growth and cell quotas of particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) and total particulate nitrogen (TPN) were determined repeatedly throughout the incubation period. Increasing pCO2 caused a decrease in cell growth rate of 9% and 29% in E. huxleyi and C. braarudii, respectively. In both species cellular PIC:TPN and PIC:POC ratios decreased in response to rising pCO2, whereas no change was observed in the POC:TPN ratios of E. huxleyi and C. braarudii. These results are consistent with those obtained in shorter-term high CO2exposure experiments following abrupt pertubations of the seawater carbonate system and indicate that for the strains tested here a gradual CO2 increase does not alleviate CO2/pH sensitivity.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with Coccolithus braarudii, 2011

Ocean acidification and associated shifts in carbonate chemistry speciation induced by increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) have the potential to impact marine biota in various ways. The process of biogenic calcification, for instance, is usually shown to be negatively affected. In coccolithophores, an important group of pelagic calcifiers, changes in cellular calcification rates in response to changing ocean carbonate chemistry appear to differ among species. By applying a wider CO2 range we show that a species previously reported insensitive to seawater acidification, Coccolithusbraarudii, responds both in terms of calcification and photosynthesis, although at higher levels of CO2. Thus, observed differences between species seem to be related to individual sensitivities while the underlying mechanisms could be the same. On this basis we develop a conceptual model of coccolithophorid calcification and photosynthesis in response to CO2-induced changes in seawater carbonate chemistry speciation.