Evaluating the structure and magnitude of the ash plume during the initial phase of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption using lidar observations and NAME simulations

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland erupted explosively on 14 April 2010, emitting a plume of ash into the atmosphere. The ash was transported from Iceland toward Europe where mostly cloud-free skies allowed ground-based lidars at Chilbolton in England and Leipzig in Germany to estimate the mass concentration in the ash cloud as it passed overhead. The UK Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modeling Environment (NAME) has been used to simulate the evolution of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano during the initial phase of the ash emissions, 14–16 April 2010. NAME captures the timing and sloped structure of the ash layer observed over Leipzig, close to the central axis of the ash cloud. Relatively small errors in the ash cloud position, probably caused by the cumulative effect of errors in the driving meteorology en route, result in a timing error at distances far from the central axis of the ash cloud. Taking the timing error into account, NAME is able to capture the sloped ash layer over the UK. Comparison of the lidar observations and NAME simulations has allowed an estimation of the plume height time series to be made. It is necessary to include in the model input the large variations in plume height in order to accurately predict the ash cloud structure at long range. Quantitative comparison with the mass concentrations at Leipzig and Chilbolton suggest that around 3% of the total emitted mass is transported as far as these sites by small (<100 μm diameter) ash particles.

Evaluating mid-infrared spectroscopy as a new technique for predicting sensory texture attributes of processed cheese

The objective of this study was to investigate the potential application of mid-infrared spectroscopy for determination of selected sensory attributes in a range of experimentally manufactured processed cheese samples. This study also evaluates mid-infrared spectroscopy against other recently proposed techniques for predicting sensory texture attributes. Processed cheeses (n = 32) of varying compositions were manufactured on a pilot scale. After 2 and 4 wk of storage at 4 degrees C, mid-infrared spectra ( 640 to 4,000 cm(-1)) were recorded and samples were scored on a scale of 0 to 100 for 9 attributes using descriptive sensory analysis. Models were developed by partial least squares regression using raw and pretreated spectra. The mouth-coating and mass-forming models were improved by using a reduced spectral range ( 930 to 1,767 cm(-1)). The remaining attributes were most successfully modeled using a combined range ( 930 to 1,767 cm(-1) and 2,839 to 4,000 cm(-1)). The root mean square errors of cross-validation for the models were 7.4(firmness; range 65.3), 4.6 ( rubbery; range 41.7), 7.1 ( creamy; range 60.9), 5.1(chewy; range 43.3), 5.2(mouth-coating; range 37.4), 5.3 (fragmentable; range 51.0), 7.4 ( melting; range 69.3), and 3.1 (mass-forming; range 23.6). These models had a good practical utility. Model accuracy ranged from approximate quantitative predictions to excellent predictions ( range error ratio = 9.6). In general, the models compared favorably with previously reported instrumental texture models and near-infrared models, although the creamy, chewy, and melting models were slightly weaker than the previously reported near-infrared models. We concluded that mid-infrared spectroscopy could be successfully used for the nondestructive and objective assessment of processed cheese sensory quality..

Simulating the effects of grassland management and grass ensiling on methane emission from lactating cows

A dynamic, mechanistic model of enteric fermentation was used to investigate the effect of type and quality of grass forage, dry matter intake (DMI) and proportion of concentrates in dietary dry matter (DM) on variation in methane (CH(4)) emission from enteric fermentation in dairy cows. The model represents substrate degradation and microbial fermentation processes in rumen and hindgut and, in particular, the effects of type of substrate fermented and of pH oil the production of individual volatile fatty acids and CH, as end-products of fermentation. Effects of type and quality of fresh and ensiled grass were evaluated by distinguishing two N fertilization rates of grassland and two stages of grass maturity. Simulation results indicated a strong impact of the amount and type of grass consumed oil CH(4) emission, with a maximum difference (across all forage types and all levels of DM 1) of 49 and 77% in g CH(4)/kg fat and protein corrected milk (FCM) for diets with a proportion of concentrates in dietary DM of 0.1 and 0.4, respectively (values ranging from 10.2 to 19.5 g CH(4)/kg FCM). The lowest emission was established for early Cut, high fertilized grass silage (GS) and high fertilized grass herbage (GH). The highest emission was found for late cut, low-fertilized GS. The N fertilization rate had the largest impact, followed by stage of grass maturity at harvesting and by the distinction between GH and GS. Emission expressed in g CH(4)/kg FCM declined oil average 14% with an increase of DMI from 14 to 18 kg/day for grass forage diets with a proportion of concentrates of 0.1, and on average 29% with an increase of DMI from 14 to 23 kg/day for diets with a proportion of concentrates of 0.4. Simulation results indicated that a high proportion of concentrates in dietary DM may lead to a further reduction of CH, emission per kg FCM mainly as a result of a higher DM I and milk yield, in comparison to low concentrate diets. Simulation results were evaluated against independent data obtained at three different laboratories in indirect calorimetry trials with COWS consuming GH mainly. The model predicted the average of observed values reasonably, but systematic deviations remained between individual laboratories and root mean squared prediction error was a proportion of 0.12 of the observed mean. Both observed and predicted emission expressed in g CH(4)/kg DM intake decreased upon an increase in dietary N:organic matter (OM) ratio. The model reproduced reasonably well the variation in measured CH, emission in cattle sheds oil Dutch dairy farms and indicated that oil average a fraction of 0.28 of the total emissions must have originated from manure under these circumstances.

Farmers’ willingness to pay for a tuberculosis cattle vaccine

We use contingent valuation (CV) and choice experiment (CE) methods to assess cattle farmers’ attitudes to and willingness to pay (WTP) for a bovine tuberculosis (bTB) cattle vaccine, to help inform vaccine development and policy. A survey questionnaire was administered by means of telephone interviews to a stratified sample of 300 cattle farmers in annually bTB-tested areas in England and Wales. Farmers felt that bTB was a major risk for the cattle industry and that there was a high risk of their cattle getting the disease. The CE estimate produced a mean WTP of £35 per animal per single dose for a vaccine that is 90% effective at reducing the risk of a bTB breakdown and an estimated £55 for such a vaccine backed by 100% insurance of loss if a breakdown should occur. The CV estimate produced a mean WTP of nearly £17 per dose/per animal/per year for a vaccine (including 100% insurance) which, given the average lifespan of cattle, is comparable to the CE estimate. These WTP estimates are substantially higher than the expected cost of a vaccine which suggests that farmers in high risk bTB ‘hotspot’ areas perceive a substantial net benefit from buying the vaccine.

SATgene dietary model to implement diets of differing fat composition in prospectively genotyped groups (apoE) using commercially available foods

esponse to dietary fat manipulation is highly heterogeneous, yet generic population-based recommendations aimed at reducing the burden of CVD are given. The APOE epsilon genotype has been proposed to be an important determinant of this response. The present study reports on the dietary strategy employed in the SATgenɛ (SATurated fat and gene APOE) study, to assess the impact of altered fat content and composition on the blood lipid profile according to the APOE genotype. A flexible dietary exchange model was developed to implement three isoenergetic diets: a low-fat (LF) diet (target composition: 24 % of energy (%E) as fat, 8 %E SFA and 59 %E carbohydrate), a high-saturated fat (HSF) diet (38 %E fat, 18 %E SFA and 45 %E carbohydrate) and a HSF-DHA diet (HSF diet with 3 g DHA/d). Free-living participants (n 88; n 44 E3/E3 and n 44 E3/E4) followed the diets in a sequential design for 8 weeks, each using commercially available spreads, oils and snacks with specific fatty acid profiles. Dietary compositional targets were broadly met with significantly higher total fat (42·8 %E and 41·0 %E v. 25·1 %E, P ≤ 0·0011) and SFA (19·3 %E and 18·6 %E v. 8·33 %E, P ≤ 0·0011) intakes during the HSF and HSF-DHA diets compared with the LF diet, in addition to significantly higher DHA intake during the HSF-DHA diet (P ≤ 0·0011). Plasma phospholipid fatty acid analysis revealed a 2-fold increase in the proportion of DHA after consumption of the HSF-DHA diet for 8 weeks, which was independent of the APOE genotype. In summary, the dietary strategy was successfully implemented in a free-living population resulting in well-tolerated diets which broadly met the dietary targets set.

Evaluating the likelihood of the adoption of an animal welfare assessment system in European agri-food supply chains

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the likelihood of adoption of a recently designed Welfare Assessment System in agri-food supply chains and the factors affecting the adoption decision. The application is carried out for pig and poultry chains. Design/methodology/approach – This research consisted of two main components: interviews with retailers in pig and poultry supply chains in eight different EU countries to explore their perceptions towards the adoption possibilities of the welfare assessment system; and a conjoint analysis designed to evaluate the perceived adoption likelihood of the assessment system by different Standards Formulating Organisations (SFOs). Findings – Stakeholders were found to be especially concerned about the costs of implementation of the system and how it could, or should, be merged with existing assurance schemes. Another conclusion of the study is that the presence of a strong third independent party supporting the implementation of the welfare assessment system would be the most important influence on the decision whether, or not, to adopt it. Originality/value – This research evaluates the adoption possibilities of a novel Welfare Assessment System and presents the views of different supply chain stakeholders on an adoption of such a system. The main factors affecting the adoption decision are identified and analysed. Contrary to expectations, the costs of adoption of a new welfare assessment system were not considered to be the most important factor affecting the decision of supply chain stakeholders about the adoption of this new welfare system.

Modelling of Johne's disease control options in beef cattle: a decision support approach

Johne's disease in cattle is a contagious wasting disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). Johne's infection is characterised by a long subclinical phase and can therefore go undetected for long periods of time during which substantial production losses can occur. The protracted nature of Johne's infection therefore presents a challenge for both veterinarians and farmers when discussing control options due to a paucity of information and limited test performance when screening for the disease. The objectives were to model Johne's control decisions in suckler beef cattle using a decision support approach, thus implying equal focus on ‘end user’ (veterinarian) participation whilst still focusing on the technical disease modelling aspects during the decision support model development. The model shows how Johne's disease is likely to affect a herd over time both in terms of physical and financial impacts. In addition, the model simulates the effect on production from two different Johne's control strategies; herd management measures and test and cull measures. The article also provides and discusses results from a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects on production from improving the currently available test performance. Output from running the model shows that a combination of management improvements to reduce routes of infection and testing and culling to remove infected and infectious animals is likely to be the least-cost control strategy.

Evaluating the use of multimedia authoring with dyslexic learners: a case study

This paper reports on the findings of a case study set up to explore the possible benefits that dyslexic learners might have when engaging in the creation of their own multimedia project. Two children with specific learning difficulties worked with the author to develop a multimedia presentation. The children developed authoring skills (such as planning and drafting, composition, revision and reflection, proof reading and presentation) and became active, motivated learners. It is believed that the open-ended character of a multimedia authoring package can encourage creative thinking and interest for content and style of presentation.

Spatial and temporal patterns in antimicrobial resistance of Salmonella Typhimurium in cattle in England and Wales

Salmonella is the second most commonly reported human foodborne pathogen in England and Wales, and antimicrobial-resistant strains of Salmonella are an increasing problem in both human and veterinary medicine. In this work we used a generalized linear spatial model to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella Typhimurium in England and Wales. Of the antimicrobials considered we found a common peak in the probability that an S. Typhimurium incident will show resistance to a given antimicrobial in late spring and in mid to late autumn; however, for one of the antimicrobials (streptomycin) there was a sharp drop, over the last 18 months of the period of investigation, in the probability of resistance. We also found a higher probability of resistance in North Wales which is consistent across the antimicrobials considered. This information contributes to our understanding of the epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella.

A high prevalence of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli isolated from pigs and a low prevalence of antimicrobial resistant E-coli from cattle and sheep in Great Britain at slaughter

The incidence of antimicrobial resistance and expressed and unexpressed resistance genes among commensal Escherichia coli isolated from healthy farm animals at slaughter in Great Britain was investigated. The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance among the isolates varied according to the animal species; of 836 isolates from cattle tested only 5.7% were resistant to one or more antimicrobials, while only 3.0% of 836 isolates from sheep were resistant to one or more agents. However, 92.1% of 2480 isolates from pigs were resistant to at least one antimicrobial. Among isolates from pigs, resistance to some antimicrobials such as tetracycline (78.7%), sulphonamide (66.9%) and streptomycin (37.5%) was found to be common, but relatively rare to other agents such as amikacin (0.1%), ceftazidime ( 0.1%) and coamoxiclav (0.2%). The isolates had a diverse range of resistance gene profiles, with tet(B), sul2 and strAB identified most frequently. Seven out of 615 isolates investigated carried unexpressed resistance genes. One trimethoprim-susceptible isolate carried a complete dfrA17 gene but lacked a promoter for it. However, in the remaining six streptomycin-susceptible isolates, one of which carried strAB while the others carried aadA, no mutations or deletions in gene or promoter sequences were identified to account for susceptibility. The data indicate that antimicrobial resistance in E. coli of animal origin is due to a broad range of acquired genes.