965 resultados para ESTIMATING DEMOGRAPHIC PARAMETERS
Resumo:
The Er3+/Yb3+ co-doped glasses with compositions of xBi(2)O(3)-(65-x)P2O5-4Yb(2)O(3)-11Al(2)O(3)-5BaO-15Na(2)O (where x = 0, 2.5, 5, 7.5 and 10 mol%) were prepared using the normal melt quench technique. The optical absorption spectra of the glasses were recorded in the wavelength range 300-1700 nm. The effect of Bi2O3 content on the thermal stability and absorption spectra of glasses was investigated. In addition, the Judd-Ofelt parameters and oscillator strengths were calculated by employing Judd-Ofelt theory. It was observed that the positions of the fundamental absorption edge and cut-off wavelength shifted towards red as the content of Bi2O3 increased. However, there were no red shifts found both in the peak wavelength and in the center of mass wavelength of all absorption bands with Bi2O3 content increasing. The results of Judd-Ofelt theory analysis showed that Judd-Ofelt parameters Omega(t), (t = 2, 4, 6) changed sharply when Bi2O3 concentration exceeded 5 mol%. The variation trends of experimental oscillator strength were similar with those of Judd-Ofelt parameters as function of Bi2O3 concentrations. Moreover, differential scanning calorimetry experiments showed that the increases of Bi2O3 content weakened the network structure and then lowered the thermal stability of the glasses. The spontaneous emission probability A(rad), branching ratio beta and the radiative lifetime tau(rad) were also calculated and analyzed. The stimulated emission cross-section of Er3+ was calculated according to the McCumber theory. It was found that the stimulated emission cross-section of Er3+ was monotonically increases with Bi2O3 content increasing. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We develop and test a method to estimate relative abundance from catch and effort data using neural networks. Most stock assessment models use time series of relative abundance as their major source of information on abundance levels. These time series of relative abundance are frequently derived from catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) data, using general linearized models (GLMs). GLMs are used to attempt to remove variation in CPUE that is not related to the abundance of the population. However, GLMs are restricted in the types of relationships between the CPUE and the explanatory variables. An alternative approach is to use structural models based on scientific understanding to develop complex non-linear relationships between CPUE and the explanatory variables. Unfortunately, the scientific understanding required to develop these models may not be available. In contrast to structural models, neural networks uses the data to estimate the structure of the non-linear relationship between CPUE and the explanatory variables. Therefore neural networks may provide a better alternative when the structure of the relationship is uncertain. We use simulated data based on a habitat based-method to test the neural network approach and to compare it to the GLM approach. Cross validation and simulation tests show that the neural network performed better than nominal effort and the GLM approach. However, the improvement over GLMs is not substantial. We applied the neural network model to CPUE data for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean.
Resumo:
The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) staff has been sampling the size distributions of tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) since 1954, and the species composition of the catches since 2000. The IATTC staff use the data from the species composition samples, in conjunction with observer and/or logbook data, and unloading data from the canneries to estimate the total annual catches of yellowfin (Thunnus albacares), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and bigeye (Thunnus obesus) tunas. These sample data are collected based on a stratified sampling design. I propose an update of the stratification of the EPO into more homogenous areas in order to reduce the variance in the estimates of the total annual catches and incorporate the geographical shifts resulting from the expansion of the floating-object fishery during the 1990s. The sampling model used by the IATTC is a stratified two-stage (cluster) random sampling design with first stage units varying (unequal) in size. The strata are month, area, and set type. Wells, the first cluster stage, are selected to be sampled only if all of the fish were caught in the same month, same area, and same set type. Fish, the second cluster stage, are sampled for lengths, and independently, for species composition of the catch. The EPO is divided into 13 sampling areas, which were defined in 1968, based on the catch distributions of yellowfin and skipjack tunas. This area stratification does not reflect the multi-species, multi-set-type fishery of today. In order to define more homogenous areas, I used agglomerative cluster analysis to look for groupings of the size data and the catch and effort data for 2000–2006. I plotted the results from both datasets against the IATTC Sampling Areas, and then created new areas. I also used the results of the cluster analysis to update the substitution scheme for strata with catch, but no sample. I then calculated the total annual catch (and variance) by species by stratifying the data into new Proposed Sampling Areas and compared the results to those reported by the IATTC. Results showed that re-stratifying the areas produced smaller variances of the catch estimates for some species in some years, but the results were not significant.
Resumo:
Hybrid TiO2/ormosil waveguiding films have been prepared by the sol-gel method at low thermal treatment temperature of 150° C. The influence of processing parameters including the molar ratios of titanium butoxide (Ti(OBu)(4))/3-glycidoxypropyltrimethoxysilane (GLYMO) and H2O/Ti(OBu)(4) (expressed as R), especially aging of sot on the optical properties was investigated. The optical properties of films were measured with scanning electron microscope (SEM), UV/VIS/NIR spectrophotometer (UV-Vis), m-line and the scattering-detection method. The results indicate that the film thickness increases with the increase of sol aging time, but the variation of refractive index as a function of sot aging time depends on the relative ratios of GLYMO to Ti(OBu)(4). Higher transmittance and lower attenuation of the planar waveguide can be obtained in the sol with lower Ti(OBu)(4) contents and shorter aging time.
Resumo:
Growth is one of the most important characteristics of cultured species. The objective of this study was to determine the fitness of linear, log linear, polynomial, exponential and Logistic functions to the growth curves of Macrobrachium rosenbergii obtained by using weekly records of live weight, total length, head length, claw length, and last segment length from 20 to 192 days of age. The models were evaluated according to the coefficient of determination (R2), and error sum off square (ESS) and helps in formulating breeders in selective breeding programs. Twenty full-sib families consisting 400 PLs each were stocked in 20 different hapas and reared till 8 weeks after which a total of 1200 animals were transferred to earthen ponds and reared up to 192 days. The R2 values of the models ranged from 56 – 96 in case of overall body weight with logistic model being the highest. The R2 value for total length ranged from 62 to 90 with logistic model being the highest. In case of head length, the R2 value ranged between 55 and 95 with logistic model being the highest. The R2 value for claw length ranged from 44 to 94 with logistic model being the highest. For last segment length, R2 value ranged from 55 – 80 with polynomial model being the highest. However, the log linear model registered low ESS value followed by linear model for overall body weight while exponential model showed low ESS value followed by log linear model in case of head length. For total length the low ESS value was given by log linear model followed by logistic model and for claw length exponential model showed low ESS value followed by log linear model. In case of last segment length, linear model showed lowest ESS value followed by log linear model. Since, the model that shows highest R2 value with low ESS value is generally considered as the best fit model. Among the five models tested, logistic model, log linear model and linear models were found to be the best models for overall body weight, total length and head length respectively. For claw length and last segment length, log linear model was found to be the best model. These models can be used to predict growth rates in M. rosenbergii. However, further studies need to be conducted with more growth traits taken into consideration
Resumo:
Pacientes com doença renal crônica (DRC) na fase não dialítica são normalmente orientados a seguir uma dieta hipoproteica e hipossódica. Estudos nacionais e internacionais mostram que a adesão a essa dieta tem sido baixa e difícil de ser mantida, pois requer mudanças importantes no hábito alimentar. O objetivo do presente estudo foi avaliar o impacto de um programa de educação nutricional sobre a adesão à dieta hipoproteica em pacientes com DRC em tratamento conservador. Trata-se de um ensaio clínico randomizado, prospectivo com duração de 5 1,5 meses. Foram acompanhados 85 pacientes com DRC na fase não dialítica, atendidos em dois Ambulatórios de Nutrição e Doenças Renais do Hospital Universitário Pedro Ernesto. Os pacientes foram divididos de forma aleatória em 2 grupos: Intervenção (n=39) e Controle (n=46). Os pacientes do Grupo Intervenção foram submetidos a um programa de educação nutricional, além da orientação de dieta hipoproteica (0,6 a 0,75 g/kg/dia). Os pacientes do Grupo Controle foram submetidos apenas à orientação de dieta hipoproteica (0,6 a 0,75 g/kg/dia). A avaliação da adesão foi feita a partir da estimativa do consumo de proteína por recordatório alimentar de 24 horas. Adotou-se como critério de adesão apresentar ao final do estudo redução de ao menos 20% da ingestão proteica inicial. A avaliação nutricional e laboratorial foi realizada no início e no término do estudo. Os parâmetros antropométricos avaliados foram peso, estatura, dobras cutâneas do tríceps, bíceps, subescapular e supra-ilíaca e perímetro da cintura e do braço. As laboratoriais foram creatinina, uréia, potássio, fósforo, glicose e albumina no plasma e sódio e uréia na urina de 24 horas. Ao avaliar o amostra total, 51,8% dos pacientes eram do sexo masculino, com média de idade de 63,4 11,0 anos, IMC indicativo de sobrepeso (28,8 5,4 kg/m2) e filtração glomerular estimada (FGe) de 32,6 12,2 mL/mim/1,73m2. As características iniciais não diferiram entre os Grupos Intervenção e Controle. Ambos os grupos apresentaram melhora dos parâmetros laboratoriais e antropometricos, com redução significante da uréia plasmática e da glicemia no Grupo Controle (P < 0,05 vs início do estudo) e do IMC em ambos os grupos (P < 0,05 vs início do estudo). Após o período de acompanhamento, o Grupo Intervenção e o Grupo Controle apresentaram ingestão proteica significantemente diferente (0,62 0,2 vs 0,77 0,26 g/kg/dia, respectivamente). A ingestão de sódio não mudou de forma significante em ambos os grupos no inicio e término do acompanhamento. A Adesão à ingestão proteica foi observada em 74,4% do Grupo Intervenção e em 47,8% do Grupo Controle (P < 0,05). A análise de regressão logística multivariada revelou que pertencer ao Grupo Intervenção e sexo masculino se associaram com a Adesão (P <0,05), mesmo após corrigir para outras variáveis testadas. Com base nos achados desse estudo, pode-se concluir que o programa de educação nutricional foi uma ferramenta eficaz no tratamento dietoterápico do paciente com DRC na pré-diálise, pois promoveu melhora na adesão à dieta hipoproteica, além de ter promovido melhora dos parâmetros antropométricos e laboratoriais.
Resumo:
Yb: YAlO3 (YAP) (15 at %) and Yb: Y3Al5O12 (YAG)(15 at %) have been grown using the Czochralski method. Their absorption and fluorescence spectra were measured at room temperature and important spectroscopic parameters were calculated. Through the comparison of spectroscopic parameters of Yb:YAP and Yb: YAG, all results indicate that 15 at % Yb:YAP crystal is a potential candidate used for compact, efficient thin chip lasers when the laser output wavelength is 1012 or 103 8 nm. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
O processo de envelhecimento populacional, ainda que amplamente reconhecido como uma das principais conquistas do século XX engendra o desafio de assegurar que o processo de desenvolvimento ocorra com base em princípios capazes de garantir a dignidade humana e a equidade entre os grupos etários na partilha dos recursos, direitos e responsabilidades sociais. Além dos desafios impostos aos já tradicionais programas constantes dos atuais sistemas de seguridade social, o envelhecimento populacional acrescenta uma nova questão ou risco social: os cuidados de longa duração, demandados pelos idosos com perda de capacidade instrumental e/ou funcional para lidar com as atividades do cotidiano. Por capacidade instrumental pode-se entender a capacidade para a realização de atividades relacionadas a, por exemplo: preparar refeições, fazer compras no mercado, ir ao banco, cuidar da casa etc. Capacidade funcional, por sua vez, refere-se às seguintes atividades: alimentar-se, banhar-se, caminhar distâncias curtas, vestir-se etc. A preocupação com os cuidados de longa duração dos idosos nos países desenvolvidos, onde o processo de envelhecimento populacional já se encontra mais avançado, surgiu como uma necessidade de se separar os custos crescentes com o tratamento dos idosos dos demais gastos com saúde. Os custos, tangíveis ou não, envolvidos na atividade de cuidar/assistir aos idosos tendem a aumentar em função da entrada maciça das mulheres no mercado de trabalho e das mudanças nos contratos de gênero, sugerindo crescentes dificuldades para que as famílias arquem com a responsabilidade pelo cuidado de seus idosos. Em países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, essa questão é agravada por se somar a uma ampla lista a ser respondida pelos sistemas de seguridade social, tais como a pobreza, a exclusão de crescentes contingentes da população e o nível de desigualdade vigente. No Brasil, para que se possa avançar no debate sobre os cuidados de longa duração voltados para uma população idosa crescente, faz-se necessário rediscutir e redefinir uma série de parâmetros do atual sistema de seguridade social, em especial, a expressiva parcela de trabalhadores informais alijados do mesmo. O precário equilíbrio, ou resultado, do sistema de seguridade social brasileiro precisa ser revisto e analisado a luz das tendências demográficas, sociais e econômicas que se vislumbram para os próximos 20 ou 30 anos. Somente após o reequacionamento do sistema é possível pensar a incorporação desta nova e latente demanda da sociedade brasileira.
Resumo:
The effectiveness of 2 mark and recapture techniques was evaluated using tiger fish, Hydrocynus vittatus. The 2 techniques used were: tagging with a plastic tag and fluorescent spray marking. While the tagging method resulted as the logical method to use within the constraints of the tiger fish study, it cannot be considered completely reliable for the estimation of population size in Lake Kariba.
Resumo:
We investigate the laser damage behaviour of an electron-beam-deposited TiO2 monolayer at different process parameters. The optical properties, chemical composition, surface defects, absorption and laser-induced damage threshold (LIDT) of Elms are measured. It is found that TiO2 Elms with the minimum absorption and the highest LIDT can be fabricated using a TiO2 starting material after annealing. LIDT is mainly related to absorption and is influenced by the non-stoichiometric defects for TiO2 films. Surface defects show no evident effects on LIDT in this experiment.