History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

Estudio para la implantación de un ERP en una empresa de venta al detalle

En este proyecto se realiza el estudio de la organización de una empresa con el fin de encontrar los requerimientos de esta, posteriormente se realiza un estudio de tres sistemas ERP para acabar encontrando la solución que mejor se adapta a las necesidades de la empresa.

Estudio para la implantación de un sistema ERP en una empresa dedicada a la hostelería

Este proyecto consiste en el estudio previo que se tiene que llevar a cabo para implantar un ERP en una empresa. En este caso, la empresa se trata de una PYME del sector de la restauración/hostelería. El estudio que se ha realizado sobre los tres ERP's son productos que se encuentran en el mercado, concretamente se han estudiado los ERP's de Openbravo, SAP y Datisa. El motivo de porque estos tres se debe a que el primero es open source, el segundo consiste en un producto de una empresa líder en el sector de los ERP's y el tercero porque es una solución de hostelería realizada por una mediana empresa.

Improvements in readiness to change and drinking in primary care patients with unhealthy alcohol use: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The course of alcohol consumption and cognitive dimensions of behavior change (readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change) in primary care patients are not well described. The objective of the study was to determine changes in readiness, importance and confidence after a primary care visit, and 6-month improvements in both drinking and cognitive dimensions of behavior change, in patients with unhealthy alcohol use. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of patients with unhealthy alcohol use visiting primary care physicians, with repeated assessments of readiness, importance, and confidence (visual analogue scale (VAS), score range 1-10 points). Improvements 6 months later were defined as no unhealthy alcohol use or any increase in readiness, importance, or confidence. Regression models accounted for clustering by physician and adjusted for demographics, alcohol consumption and related problems, and discussion with the physician about alcohol. RESULTS: From before to immediately after the primary care physician visit, patients (n = 173) had increases in readiness (mean +1.0 point), importance (+0.2), and confidence (+0.5) (all p < 0.002). In adjusted models, discussion with the physician about alcohol was associated with increased readiness (+0.8, p = 0.04). At 6 months, many participants had improvements in drinking or readiness (62%), drinking or importance (58%), or drinking or confidence (56%). CONCLUSION: Readiness, importance and confidence improve in many patients with unhealthy alcohol use immediately after a primary care visit. Six months after a visit, most patients have improvements in either drinking or these cognitive dimensions of behavior change.

Change in individual growth rate and its link to gill-net fishing in two sympatric whitefish species

Size-selective fishing is expected to affect traits such as individual growth rate, but the relationship between the fishery-linked selection differentials and the corresponding phenotypic changes is not well understood. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of sympatric populations of the two Alpine whitefish Coregonus albellus and C. fatioi. We determined the fishing-induced selection differentials on growth rates, the actual change of growth rates over time, and potential indicators of reproductive strategies that may change over time. We found marked declines in adult growth rate and significant selection differentials that may partly explain the observed declines. However, when comparing the two sympatric species, the selection differentials on adult growth were stronger in C. albellus while the decline in adult growth rate seemed more pronounced in C. fatioi. Moreover, the selection differential on juvenile growth was significant in C. albellus but not in C. fatioi, while a significant reduction in juvenile growth over the last 25 years was only found in C. fatioi. Our results suggest that size-selective fishing affects the genetics for individual growth in these whitefish, and that the link between selection differentials and phenotypic changes is influenced by species-specific factors.

Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change.

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

How multiple repetitions influence the processing of self-, famous and unknown names and faces: an ERP study.

Because we live in an extremely complex social environment, people require the ability to memorize hundreds or thousands of social stimuli. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of multiple repetitions on the processing of names and faces varying in terms of pre-experimental familiarity. We measured both behavioral and electrophysiological responses to self-, famous and unknown names and faces in three phases of the experiment (in every phase, each type of stimuli was repeated a pre-determined number of times). We found that the negative brain potential in posterior scalp sites observed approximately 170 ms after the stimulus onset (N170) was insensitive to pre-experimental familiarity but showed slight enhancement with each repetition. The negative wave in the inferior-temporal regions observed at approximately 250 ms (N250) was affected by both pre-experimental (famous>unknown) and intra-experimental familiarity (the more repetitions, the larger N250). In addition, N170 and N250 for names were larger in the left inferior-temporal region, whereas right-hemispheric or bilateral patterns of activity for faces were observed. The subsequent presentations of famous and unknown names and faces were also associated with higher amplitudes of the positive waveform in the central-parietal sites analyzed in the 320-900 ms time-window (P300). In contrast, P300 remained unchanged after the subsequent presentations of self-name and self-face. Moreover, the P300 for unknown faces grew more quickly than for unknown names. The latter suggests that the process of learning faces is more effective than learning names, possibly because faces carry more semantic information.

Aplicación ERP para la empresa GARCIALU

Creación de una aplicación de planificación de recursos empresariales (ERP) para una PYME del sector del aluminio llamada GarciAlu.

How does monetary policy change? evidence on inflation targeting countries

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) applying moment- based estimator at time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. Using this novel flexible framework, our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules change gradually pointing to the importance of applying time-varying estimation framework. Second, the interest rate smoothing parameter is much lower that what previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules typically report. External factors matter for all countries, albeit the importance of exchange rate diminishes after the adoption of inflation targeting. Third, the response of interest rates on inflation is particularly strong during the periods, when central bankers want to break the record of high inflation such as in the U.K. or in Australia at the beginning of 1980s. Contrary to common wisdom, the response becomes less aggressive after the adoption of inflation targeting suggesting the positive effect of this regime on anchoring inflation expectations. This result is supported by our finding that inflation persistence as well as policy neutral rate typically decreased after the adoption of inflation targeting.

Parents, television and cultural change

This paper develops a model of cultural transmission where television plays a central role for socialization. Parents split their free time between educating their children which is costly and watching TV which though entertaining might socialize the children to the wrong trait. The free to air television industry maximizes advertisement revenue. We show that TV watching is increasing in cultural coverage, cost of education, TV's entertainment value and decreasing in the perceived cultural distance between the two traits. A monopolistic television industry captures all TV watching by both groups if the perceived cultural distance between groups is small relative to the TV's entertainment value. Otherwise, more coverage will be given to the most profitable group where profitability increases in group size, advertisement sensitivity and perceived cultural distance. This leads to two possible steady states where one group is larger but both groups survive in the long run. Competition in the media industry might lead to cultural extinction but only if one group is very insensitive to advertisement and not radical enough not to watch TV. We briefly discuss the existing evidence for the empirical predictions of the model.

Preserving Electronic Theses through the MetaArchive network

In the recent years most libraries have focused on mass digitization programs and keeping electronic born documents, showing and organizing them in a repository. While those repositories have evolved to a much more manageable systems focusing on the user expectations and introducing web 2.0 tools, digital preservation is still in the to-do list of most of them. There is quite a lot of studies focused on preservation and some complex models exist, unfortunately, very few practical systems are running and its quite difficult for a library to get involved in a solution already tested by others. The CBUC (Consortium of University Catalan Libraries) runs TDX, an ETD repository now keeping more than 10.000 full text thesis from any of the 12 university members. After 10 years running TDX a solid preservation system was needed to ensure every thesis would be kept as it was regardless what happens to the repository. The perfect solution was found in the MetaArchive cooperative, this is the effort of many insitutions to keep a copy of each other content through a newtwork using the LOCKSS software as a mechanism to keep track of any change. The presentation will shortly introduce what TDX and MetaArchive is but will, in a practical way, show how the LOCKSS network for presrervation works. Finally a summary of the benefits of the overall experience will be shown.

Estudi per la implantació d'un ERP de codi obert en una empresa de fabricació de mobles

Un sistema ERP és una aplicació informàtica que permet gestionar tots els processos de negoci d’una empresa de forma integrada. Aquest projecte tracta sobre l’estudi previ que s’ha de realitzar en una empresa abans de la implantació d’un sistema ERP. L’empresa escollida per l’estudi és una pyme de fabricació de mobles. En primer lloc, s’inclou una base teòrica sobre els sistemes ERP. Després, s’analitza el funcionament i requeriments de l’empresa escollida. Finalment, s’estudien tres sistemes ERP de codi obert, es selecciona el que millor s’adapta i es fa una proposta de la seva futura implantació.

Implantació de l'ERP SAP ISH-Med de gestió assistencial d'hospitals

Aquest projecte pretén mostrar les diferents tasques que composen la implantació de la solució assistencial de SAP, anomenada SAP ISH i SAP ISH-Med, en els processos concrets d’Urgències i Hospitalització d’un hospital, tenint en compte que es troben englobats dins de la implantació de la solució per a tots els processos assistencials del centre. Centrants en un hospital de les dimensions i volum d’activitat similar als Hospitals de Bellvitge o de la Vall d’Hebron, es mostren les diferents fases d’anàlisi, disseny i desenvolupament que condueixen el projecte fins a la data límit de posada en marxa del nou sistema.

Contact melting of a three-dimensional phase change material on a flat substrate

In this paper a model is developed to describe the three dimensional contact melting process of a cuboid on a heated surface. The mathematical description involves two heat equations (one in the solid and one in the melt), the Navier-Stokes equations for the flow in the melt, a Stefan condition at the phase change interface and a force balance between the weight of the solid and the countering pressure in the melt. In the solid an optimised heat balance integral method is used to approximate the temperature. In the liquid the small aspect ratio allows the Navier-Stokes and heat equations to be simplified considerably so that the liquid pressure may be determined using an igenfunction expansion and finally the problem is reduced to solving three first order ordinary differential equations. Results are presented showing the evolution of the melting process. Further reductions to the system are made to provide simple guidelines concerning the process. Comparison of the solutions with experimental data on the melting of n-octadecane shows excellent agreement.