Distributional and Poverty Consequences of Globalization: A Dynamic Comparative Analysis for Developing Countries

This study examines the impact of globalization on cross-country inequality and poverty using a panel data set for 65 developing counties, over the period 1970-2008. With separate modelling for poverty and inequality, explicit control for financial intermediation, and comparative analysis for developing countries, the study attempts to provide a deeper understanding of cross country variations in income inequality and poverty. The major findings of the study are five fold. First, a non-monotonic relationship between income distribution and the level of economic development holds in all samples of countries. Second, both openness to trade and FDI do not have a favourable effect on income distribution in developing countries. Third, high financial liberalization exerts a negative and significant influence on income distribution in developing countries. Fourth, inflation seems to distort income distribution in all sets of countries. Finally, the government emerges as a major player in impacting income distribution in developing countries.

Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.

Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.

Alliance evolutions over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: A case study

Background: Alliance evolutions, i.e. ruptures and resolutions over the course of psychotherapy, have been shown to be important descriptive features in different forms of psychotherapy, and in particular in psychodynamic psychotherapy. This case study of a client presenting elements of adjustment disorder undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy is drawn from a systematic naturalistic study and aims at illustrating, on a session-by-session-level, the processes of alliance ruptures and resolutions, by comparing both the client's and the therapist's perspectives. Method: Two episodes of alliance evolution were more fully studied, in relation to the evolution of transference, as well as the client's defensive functioning and core conflictual theme. These concepts were measured by means of valid, reliable observer-rater methods, based on session transcripts: the Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS) for defensive functioning and the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme (CCRT) for the conflicts. Alliance was measured after each session using the Helping Alliance questionnaire (HAq-II). Results: The results indicated that these episodes of alliance rupture and resolutions may be understood as key moments of the whole therapeutic process reflecting the client's main relationship stakes. Illustrations are provided based on the client's in-session processes and related to the alliance development over the course of the entire therapy.

Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model

We analyze and quantify co-movements in real effective exchange rates while considering the regional location of countries. More specifically, using the dynamic hierarchical factor model (Moench et al. (2011)), we decompose exchange rate movements into several latent components; worldwide and two regional factors as well as country-specific elements. Then, we provide evidence that the worldwide common factor is closely related to monetary policies in large advanced countries while regional common factors tend to be captured by those in the rest of the countries in a region. However, a substantial proportion of the variation in the real exchange rates is reported to be country-specific; even in Europe country-specific movements exceed worldwide and regional common factors.

A Simple Characterization of Dynamic Completeness in Continuous Time

This paper investigates dynamic completeness of financial markets in which the underlying risk process is a multi-dimensional Brownian motion and the risky securities dividends geometric Brownian motions. A sufficient condition, that the instantaneous dispersion matrix of the relative dividends is non-degenerate, was established recently in the literature for single-commodity, pure-exchange economies with many heterogenous agents, under the assumption that the intermediate flows of all dividends, utilities, and endowments are analytic functions. For the current setting, a different mathematical argument in which analyticity is not needed shows that a slightly weaker condition suffices for general pricing kernels. That is, dynamic completeness obtains irrespectively of preferences, endowments, and other structural elements (such as whether or not the budget constraints include only pure exchange, whether or not the time horizon is finite with lump-sum dividends available on the terminal date, etc.)

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

Design and evaluation of a solid sampler for the monitoring of airborne 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) and its prepolymers in 2-component spray painting

An active, solvent-free solid sampler was developed for the collection of 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) aerosol and prepolymers. The sampler was made of a filter impregnated with 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine contained in a filter holder. Interferences with HDI were observed when a set of cellulose acetate filters and a polystyrene filter holder were used; a glass fiber filter and polypropylene filter cassette gave better results. The applicability of the sampling and analytical procedure was validated with a test chamber, constructed for the dynamic generation of HDI aerosol and prepolymers in commercial two-component spray paints (Desmodur(R) N75) used in car refinishing. The particle size distribution, temporal stability, and spatial uniformity of the simulated aerosol were established in order to test the sample. The monitoring of aerosol concentrations was conducted with the solid sampler paired to the reference impinger technique (impinger flasks contained 10 mL of 0.5 mg/mL 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine in toluene) under a controlled atmosphere in the test chamber. Analyses of derivatized HDI and prepolymers were carried out by using high-performance liquid chromatography and ultraviolet detection. The correlation between the solvent-free and the impinger techniques appeared fairly good (Y = 0.979X - 0.161; R = 0.978), when the tests were conducted in the range of 0.1 to 10 times the threshold limit value (TLV) for HDI monomer and up to 60-mu-g/m3 (3 U.K. TLVs) for total -N = C = O groups.

Análisis y sintonización de aplicaciones paralelas/distribuidas de bioinformática: caso de estudio mpiBLAST

En termes de temps d'execució i ús de dades, les aplicacions paral·leles/distribuïdes poden tenir execucions variables, fins i tot quan s'empra el mateix conjunt de dades d'entrada. Existeixen certs aspectes de rendiment relacionats amb l'entorn que poden afectar dinàmicament el comportament de l'aplicació, tals com: la capacitat de la memòria, latència de la xarxa, el nombre de nodes, l'heterogeneïtat dels nodes, entre d'altres. És important considerar que l'aplicació pot executar-se en diferents configuracions de maquinari i el desenvolupador d'aplicacions no port garantir que els ajustaments de rendiment per a un sistema en particular continuïn essent vàlids per a d'altres configuracions. L'anàlisi dinàmica de les aplicacions ha demostrat ser el millor enfocament per a l'anàlisi del rendiment per dues raons principals. En primer lloc, ofereix una solució molt còmoda des del punt de vista dels desenvolupadors mentre que aquests dissenyen i evaluen les seves aplicacions paral·leles. En segon lloc, perquè s'adapta millor a l'aplicació durant l'execució. Aquest enfocament no requereix la intervenció de desenvolupadors o fins i tot l'accés al codi font de l'aplicació. S'analitza l'aplicació en temps real d'execució i es considra i analitza la recerca dels possibles colls d'ampolla i optimitzacions. Per a optimitzar l'execució de l'aplicació bioinformàtica mpiBLAST, vam analitzar el seu comportament per a identificar els paràmetres que intervenen en el rendiment d'ella, com ara: l'ús de la memòria, l'ús de la xarxa, patrons d'E/S, el sistema de fitxers emprat, l'arquitectura del processador, la grandària de la base de dades biològica, la grandària de la seqüència de consulta, la distribució de les seqüències dintre d'elles, el nombre de fragments de la base de dades i/o la granularitat dels treballs assignats a cada procés. El nostre objectiu és determinar quins d'aquests paràmetres tenen major impacte en el rendiment de les aplicacions i com ajustar-los dinàmicament per a millorar el rendiment de l'aplicació. Analitzant el rendiment de l'aplicació mpiBLAST hem trobat un conjunt de dades que identifiquen cert nivell de serial·lització dintre l'execució. Reconeixent l'impacte de la caracterització de les seqüències dintre de les diferents bases de dades i una relació entre la capacitat dels workers i la granularitat de la càrrega de treball actual, aquestes podrien ser sintonitzades dinàmicament. Altres millores també inclouen optimitzacions relacionades amb el sistema de fitxers paral·lel i la possibilitat d'execució en múltiples multinucli. La grandària de gra de treball està influenciat per factors com el tipus de base de dades, la grandària de la base de dades, i la relació entre grandària de la càrrega de treball i la capacitat dels treballadors.

Plataforma telemàtica de serveis administratius de l'Ajuntament de Ripollet

PTSA és el projecte resultat del desenvolupament de la Plataforma Telemàtica de Serveis Administratius proposada com a iniciativa per l'Ajuntament de Ripollet. Amb l'objectiu de promoure la utilització dels canals de comunicació segurs entre el ciutadà i l'Administració, aporta els serveis d'acreditació, registre i consulta. Integrada amb el portal ripollet.cat, implementa les tecnologies per al tractament de l'acreditació d'usuaris mitjançant certificació digital i la generació dinàmica de documents signats electrònicament. Dins el marc d'execució de la llei 11/2007 d'accés electrònic dels ciutadans als serveis públics, és un gran primer pas en el llarg camí amb destinació a una Administració electrònica completa i de qualitat.

The SOCS3-independent expression of IDO2 supports the homeostatic generation of T regulatory cells by human dendritic cells.

Dendritic cells (DCs) are professional APCs that have a role in the initiation of adaptive immune responses and tolerance. Among the tolerogenic mechanisms, the expression of the enzyme IDO1 represents an effective tool to generate T regulatory cells. In humans, different DC subsets express IDO1, but less is known about the IDO1-related enzyme IDO2. In this study, we found a different pattern of expression and regulation between IDO1 and IDO2 in human circulating DCs. At the protein level, IDO1 is expressed only in circulating myeloid DCs (mDCs) and is modulated by PGE2, whereas IDO2 is expressed in both mDCs and plasmacytoid DCs and is not modulated by PGE2. In healthy subjects, IDO1 expression requires the presence of PGE2 and needs continuous transcription and translation, whereas IDO2 expression is constitutive, independent from suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 activity. Conversely, in patients suffering from inflammatory arthritis, circulating DCs express both IDO1 and IDO2. At the functional level, both mDCs and plasmacytoid DCs generate T regulatory cells through an IDO1/IDO2-dependent mechanism. We conclude that, in humans, whereas IDO1 provides an additional mechanism of tolerance induced by proinflammatory mediators, IDO2 is stably expressed in steady-state conditions and may contribute to the homeostatic tolerogenic capacity of DCs.

Generation of a recombinant mouse-human chimaeric monoclonal antibody directed against human carcinoembryonic antigen.

A procedure was devised for the identification and specific cloning of functionally rearranged variable region immunoglobulin (Ig) gene segments from genomic DNA of a murine hybridoma cell line which produces a high-affinity monoclonal antibody (MAb) directed against human carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). The cloned, functionally-rearranged murine Ig H-chain and L-chain variable region gene segments were incorporated into plasmid vectors capable of directing the expression of a chimaeric mouse-human antibody molecule with human (gamma 4, kappa) constant region sequences. Expression plasmids were transfected into a mouse myeloma cell line by electroporation and transfectomas secreting functional chimaeric antibody selected. Chimaeric antibody generated by transfectomas was analysed and shown to compete effectively with its murine counterpart for binding to the CEA epitope, and to have an equivalent antigen-binding affinity. This anti-CEA recombinant antibody should find application in in vivo diagnosis by immunoscintigraphy of human colonic carcinoma, and possibly also in therapy of the disease, overcoming some of the difficulties associated with the repeated use of non-human immunoglobulins in human patients.