A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.

On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.

Large contribution of supercooled liquid clouds to the solar radiation budget of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is a critical region for global climate, yet large cloud and solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean are a long-standing problem in climate models and are poorly understood, leading to biases in simulated sea surface temperatures. This study shows that supercooled liquid clouds are central to understanding and simulating the Southern Ocean environment. A combination of satellite observational data and detailed radiative transfer calculations is used to quantify the impact of cloud phase and cloud vertical structure on the reflected solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere summer. It is found that clouds with supercooled liquid tops dominate the population of liquid clouds. The observations show that clouds with supercooled liquid tops contribute between 27% and 38% to the total reflected solar radiation between 40° and 70°S, and climate models are found to poorly simulate these clouds. The results quantify the importance of supercooled liquid clouds in the Southern Ocean environment and highlight the need to improve understanding of the physical processes that control these clouds in order to improve their simulation in numerical models. This is not only important for improving the simulation of present-day climate and climate variability, but also relevant for increasing confidence in climate feedback processes and future climate projections.

PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6

The goal of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to changes in different climate forcings and to feedbacks. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impacts of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art models simulate climate changes. Palaeoclimate states are radically different from those of the recent past documented by the instrumental record and thus provide an out-of-sample test of the models used for future climate projections and a way to assess whether they have the correct sensitivity to forcings and feedbacks. Five distinctly different periods have been selected as focus for the core palaeoclimate experiments that are designed to contribute to the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This manuscript describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments, with a focus upon their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP as well as the benefits of common analyses of the models across multiple climate states. It also describes the information needed to document each experiment and the model outputs required for analysis and benchmarking.

Henneguya pseudoplatystoma n. sp causing reduction in epithelial area of gills in the farmed pintado, a South American catfish: Histopathology and ultrastructure

The present study is part of an ongoing investigation into the characteristics of Myxozoan parasites of Brazilian freshwater fish and was carried out using morphology, histopathology and electron microscopy analysis. A new Myxosporea species (Henneguya pseudoplatystoma) is described causing an important reduction in gill function in the farmed pintado (a hybrid fish from a cross between Pseudoplatystoma corruscans and Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum), which is a commercially important South American catfish. From a total of 98 pintado juveniles from fish farms in the states of Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil), 36 samples (36.7%) exhibited infection of the gill filaments. infection was intense, with several plasmodia occurring on a same gill filament. The plasmodia were white and measured up to 0.5 mm in length; mature spores were ellipsoidal in the frontal view, measuring 33.2 +/- 1.9 mu m in total length, 10.4 +/- 0.6 mu m in body length, 3.4 +/- 0.4 mu m in width and 22.7 +/- 1.7 mu m in the caudal process. The polar capsules were elongated, measuring 3.3 +/- 0.4 mu m in length and 1.0 +/- 0.1 mu m in width and the polar filaments had six to seven turns. Histopathological analysis revealed the parasite in the connective tissue of the gill filaments and lamella. No inflammatory process was observed, but the development of the plasmodia reduced the area of functional epithelium. Ultrastructural analyses revealed a single plasmodial wall, which was in direct contact with the host cells and had numerous projections in direction of the host cells as well as extensive pinocytotic canals. A thick layer (2-6 mu m) of fibrous material and numerous mitochondria were found in the ectoplasm. Generative cells and the earliest stage of sporogenesis were seen more internally. Advanced spore developmental stages and mature spores were found in the central portion of the plasmodia. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Host-parasite-environment relationship, morphology and molecular analyses of Henneguya eirasi n. sp parasite of two wild Pseudoplatystoma spp. in Pantanal Wetland, Brazil

A new myxosporean species, Henneguya eirasi n. sp., is described parasitizing the gill filaments of Pseudoplatystoma corruscans and Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum (Siluriformes: Pimelodidae) caught in the Patanal Wetland of the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The parasite formed white, elongated plasmodia measuring up to 3 mm. Mature spores were ellipsoidal in the frontal view, measuring 37.1 +/- 1.8 mu m in total length, 12.9 +/- 0.8 mu m in body length, 3.4 +/- 0.3 mu m in width, 3.1 +/- 0.1 mu m in thickness and 24.6 +/- 2.2 mu m in the caudal process. Polar capsules were elongated and equal in size, measuring 5.4 +/- 0.5 mu m in length and 0.7 +/- 0.1 mu m in width. Polar filaments had 12-13 coils. Histopathological analysis revealed that the parasite developed in the sub-epithelial connective tissue of the gill filaments and the plasmodia were surrounded by a capsule of host connective tissue. The plasmodia caused slight compression of the adjacent tissues, but no inflammatory response was observed in the infection site. Ultrastructure analysis revealed a single plasmodial wall connected to the ectoplasmic zone through numerous pinocytotic canals. The plasmodial wall exhibited numerous projections and slightly electron-dense material was found in the ectoplasm next to the plasmodial wall, forming a line just below the wall. Partial sequencing of the 18S rDNA gene of H. eirasi n. sp. obtained from P. fasciatum resulted in a total of 1066 bp and this sequence did not match any of the Myxozoa available in the GenBank. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the Henneguya species clustering into clades following the order and family of the host fishes. H. eirasi n. sp. clustered alone in one clade, which was the basal unit for the clade composed of Henneguya species parasites of siluriform ictalurids. The prevalence of the parasite was 17.1% in both fish species examined. Parasite prevalence was not influenced by season, host sex or host size. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

PCA Tomography: how to extract information from data cubes

Astronomy has evolved almost exclusively by the use of spectroscopic and imaging techniques, operated separately. With the development of modern technologies, it is possible to obtain data cubes in which one combines both techniques simultaneously, producing images with spectral resolution. To extract information from them can be quite complex, and hence the development of new methods of data analysis is desirable. We present a method of analysis of data cube (data from single field observations, containing two spatial and one spectral dimension) that uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to express the data in the form of reduced dimensionality, facilitating efficient information extraction from very large data sets. PCA transforms the system of correlated coordinates into a system of uncorrelated coordinates ordered by principal components of decreasing variance. The new coordinates are referred to as eigenvectors, and the projections of the data on to these coordinates produce images we will call tomograms. The association of the tomograms (images) to eigenvectors (spectra) is important for the interpretation of both. The eigenvectors are mutually orthogonal, and this information is fundamental for their handling and interpretation. When the data cube shows objects that present uncorrelated physical phenomena, the eigenvector`s orthogonality may be instrumental in separating and identifying them. By handling eigenvectors and tomograms, one can enhance features, extract noise, compress data, extract spectra, etc. We applied the method, for illustration purpose only, to the central region of the low ionization nuclear emission region (LINER) galaxy NGC 4736, and demonstrate that it has a type 1 active nucleus, not known before. Furthermore, we show that it is displaced from the centre of its stellar bulge.

Acquisition of Pavlovian Fear Conditioning Using beta-Adrenoceptor Activation of the Dorsal Premammillary Nucleus as an Unconditioned Stimulus to Mimic Live Predator-Threat Exposure

In the present work, we sought to mimic the internal state changes in response to a predator threat by pharmacologically stimulating the brain circuit involved in mediating predator fear responses, and explored whether this stimulation would be a valuable unconditioned stimulus (US) in an olfactory fear conditioning paradigm (OFC). The dorsal premammillary nucleus (PMd) is a key brain structure in the neural processing of anti-predatory defensive behavior and has also been shown to mediate the acquisition and expression of anti-predatory contextual conditioning fear responses. Rats were conditioned by pairing the US, which was an intra-PMd microinjection of isoproterenol (ISO; beta-adrenoceptor agonist), with amyl acetate odor-the conditioned stimulus (CS). ISO (10 and 40 nmol) induced the acquisition of the OFC and the second-order association by activation of beta-1 receptors in the PMd. Furthermore, similar to what had been found for contextual conditioning to a predator threat, atenolol (beta-1 receptor antagonist) in the PMd also impaired the acquisition and expression of OFC promoted by ISO. Considering the strong glutamatergic projections from the PMd to the dorsal periaqueductal gray (dPAG), we tested how the glutamatergic blockade of the dPAG would interfere with the OFC induced by ISO. Accordingly, microinjections of NMDA receptor antagonist (AP5, 6 nmol) into the dPAG were able to block both the acquisition, and partially, the expression of the OFC. In conclusion, we have found that PMd beta-1 adrenergic stimulation is a good model to mimic predatory threat-induced internal state changes, and works as a US able to mobilize the same systems involved in the acquisition and expression of predator-related contextual conditioning. Neuropsychopharmacology (2011) 36, 926-939; doi:10.1038/npp.2010.231; published online 5 January 2011

Short- and long-term anxiogenic effects induced by a single injection of subconvulsant doses of pilocarpine in rats: investigation of the putative role of hippocampal pathways

Behavioral consequences of convulsive episodes are well documented, but less attention was paid to changes that occur in response to subconvulsant doses of drugs. We investigated short- and long-term effects of a single systemic injection of a subconvulsant dose of pilocarpine on the behavior of rats as evaluated in the elevated plus maze. Pilocarpine induced an anxiogenic-like profile 24 h later, and this effect persisted for up to 3 months (% of time spent on open arms at 24 h, control = 35.47 +/- 3.23; pilocarpine 150 = 8.2 +/- 2.6; 3 months, control = 31.9 +/- 5.5; pilocarpine 150 = 9.3 +/- 4.9). Temporary inactivation of fimbria-fornix with lidocaine 4% promoted an anxiolytic-like effect per se, suggesting a tonic control of this pathway on the modulation of anxiety-related behaviors. Lidocaine also reduced the anxiogenic-like profile of animals tested 1 month after pilocarpine treatment (% of time spent on open arms, saline + phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) = 31.7 + 3.7; saline + lidocaine = 54.4 + 4.7; pilocarpine + PBS = 10.3 + 4.1; pilocarpine + lidocaine = 40.1 + 9.1). To determine whether the anxiogenic-like effect was mediated by septal region or by direct hippocampal projections to the diencephalon, the neural transmission of post-commissural fornix was blocked, and a similar reduction in the anxiogenic-like effect of pilocarpine was observed. Our findings suggest that a single systemic injection of pilocarpine may induce long-lasting anxiogenic-like behavior in rats, an effect that appears to be mediated, in part, through a direct path from hippocampus to medial hypothalamic sites involved in fear responses.

Chemical identity and connections of medial preoptic area neurons expressing melanin-concentrating hormone during lactation

Lactation is an energy-demanding process characterized by massive food and water consumption, cessation of the reproductive cycle and induction of maternal behavior. During lactation, melanin-concentrating hormone (MCH) mRNA and peptide expression are increased in the medial preoptic area (MPO) and in the anterior paraventricular nucleus of the hypothalamus. Here we show that MCH neurons in the MPO coexpress the GABA synthesizing enzyme GAD-67 mRNA. We also show that MCH neurons in the MPO of female rats are innervated by neuropeptides that control energy homeostasis including agouti-related protein (AgRP), alpha-melanocyte stimulating hormone (alpha MSH) and cocaine- and amphetamine-regulated transcript (CART). Most of these inputs originate from the arcuate nucleus neurons. Additionally, using injections of retrograde tracers we found that CART neurons in the ventral premammillary nucleus also innervate the MPO. We then assessed the projections of the female MPO using injections of anterograde tracers. The MPO densely innervates hypothalamic nuclei related to reproductive control including the anteroventral periventricular nucleus, the ventrolateral subdivision of the ventromedial nucleus (VMHvl) and the ventral premammillary nucleus (PMV). We found that the density of MCH-ir fibers is increased in the VMHvl and PMV during lactation. Our findings suggest that the expression of MCH in the MPO may be induced by changing levels of neuropeptides involved in metabolic control. These MCH/GABA neurons may, in turn, participate in the suppression of cyclic reproductive function and/or sexual behavior during lactation through projections to reproductive control sites. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.