Practices and attitudes to derivatives use in Australian commonwealth organisations

Little is known about risk management in the public sector This study reports on a survey of senior officers in Australian Commonwealth companies and statutory authorities concerning their practice and attitudes towards the use of derivative instruments for risk management. Using a variety of tests, the most important issue identified by respondents concerning the use of derivatives is for budgeting purposes. Of note, respondents rank commonly cited reasons advanced in the private sector such as reduced bankruptcy costs and taxation, as being relatively unimportant, which is consistent with arguments advanced in the paper The results also indicate that there are significant differences in the level of importance in some issues regarding derivatives use across public sector organisations, particularly those differentiated by a documented risk management plan. The study also documents for the first time the extent of derivatives use in the Australian public sector.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Prognostic use of growth characteristics of early gastric cancer and expression patterns of apoptotic, cell proliferation, and cell adhesion proteins

Background and Objectives: Selection of suitable treatment for early gastric cancers, such as endoscopic mucosal resection or the major surgical option of resection of the cancer together with a radical lymph node dissection, may be assisted by comparing the growth characteristics of the cancer with selected molecular characteristics. The results could be used to predict those cases that have a higher risk of developing secondary metastases. Methods: A total of 1,196 Japanese patients with early gastric cancers (648 mucosal cancers and 548 submucosal) were included in the selection of two groups: a metastatic group made up 57 cancers with lymph node metastasis (9 mucosal, 48 submucosal), and a nonmetastatic group of 61 cases (6 mucosal, 55 submucosal) without lymph node metastasis. Growth characteristics of the cancers (superficially spreading, penetrating or invasive, lymph node metastasis) were compared with immunohistochemical expression of single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) protein (apoptosis indicator), bcl-2 and p53 (apoptosis-associated), Ki-67 (cell proliferation), and E-cadherin (cell adhesion) proteins. Results: The lesions in the nonmetastatic group had higher levels of apoptosis and lower expression of bcl-2 than in the metastatic group, indicating an inhibitory role for apoptosis in malignant progression. Apoptosis was also higher in the superficial compared with the invasive lesions of both groups. The lesions in the metastatic group had higher p53 expression than that of the nonmetastatic group, whereas apoptosis in the metastatic group was lower than in the nonmetastatic group. An unproved explanation for this finding may be that, although increased, p53 was mutated and ineffective in promoting apoptotic control of metastatic progression. E-cadherin was decreased in the invasive lesions of both groups, indicating a greater ability of these cells to lose adhesion, to invade the submucosa, and to metastasize. Cell proliferation was highest in the superficial lesions of both metastatic and nonmetastatic groups. Conclusions: Early gastric cancers with low levels of apoptosis, increased bcl-2, and high levels of p53 expression are more likely to invade and metastasize. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. III. Broad-scale patterns of habitat use

To date there have been few quantitative studies of the distribution of, and relative habitat utilisation by, koalas in the mulgalands of Queensland. To examine these parameters we applied habitat-accessibility and relative habitat-utilisation indices to estimates of faecal pellet density sampled at 149 sites across the region. Modelling the presence of pellets using logistic regression showed that the potential range of accessible habitats and relative habitat use varied greatly across the region, with rainfall being probably the most important determinant of distribution. Within that distribution, landform and rainfall were both important factors affecting habitat preference. Modelling revealed vastly different probabilities of finding a pellet under trees depending on the tree species, canopy size, and location within the region.

Impulse-response function of splanchnic circulation with model-independent constraints: theory and experimental validation

Modeling physiological processes using tracer kinetic methods requires knowledge of the time course of the tracer concentration in blood supplying the organ. For liver studies, however, inaccessibility of the portal vein makes direct measurement of the hepatic dual-input function impossible in humans. We want to develop a method to predict the portal venous time-activity curve from measurements of an arterial time-activity curve. An impulse-response function based on a continuous distribution of washout constants is developed and validated for the gut. Experiments with simultaneous blood sampling in aorta and portal vein were made in 13 anesthetized pigs following inhalation of intravascular [O-15] CO or injections of diffusible 3-O[ C-11] methylglucose (MG). The parameters of the impulse-response function have a physiological interpretation in terms of the distribution of washout constants and are mathematically equivalent to the mean transit time ( T) and standard deviation of transit times. The results include estimates of mean transit times from the aorta to the portal vein in pigs: (T) over bar = 0.35 +/- 0.05 min for CO and 1.7 +/- 0.1 min for MG. The prediction of the portal venous time-activity curve benefits from constraining the regression fits by parameters estimated independently. This is strong evidence for the physiological relevance of the impulse-response function, which includes asymptotically, and thereby justifies kinetically, a useful and simple power law. Similarity between our parameter estimates in pigs and parameter estimates in normal humans suggests that the proposed model can be adapted for use in humans.

Ex vivo analysis of T-cell responses to Epstein-Barr virus-encoded oncogene latent membrane protein 1 reveals highly conserved epitope sequences in virus isolates from diverse geographic regions

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-encoded oncogene latent membrane protein (LMP) 1, which is consistently expressed in multiple EBV-associated malignancies, has been proposed as a potential target antigen for any future vaccine designed to control these malignancies. However, the high degree of genetic variation in the LMP1 sequence has been considered a major impediment for its use as a potential immunotherapeutic target for the treatment of EBV-associated malignancies. In the present study, we have employed a highly efficient strategy, based on ex vivo functional assays, to conduct an extensive sequence-wide analysis of LMP1-specific T-cell responses in a large panel of healthy virus carriers of diverse ethnic origin and nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients. By comparing the frequencies of T cells specific for overlapping peptides spanning LMP1, we mapped a number of novel HLA class I- and class II-restricted LMP1 T-cell epitopes, including an epitope with dual HLA class I restriction. More importantly, extensive sequence analysis of LMP1 revealed that the majority of the T-cell epitopes were highly conserved in EBV isolates from Caucasian, Papua New Guinean, African, and Southeast Asian populations, while unique geographically constrained genetic variation was observed within one HLA A2 supertype-restricted epitope. These findings indicate that conserved LMP1 epitopes should be considered in designing epitope-based immunotherapeutic strategies against EBV-associated malignancies in different ethnic populations.

Escalation of Drug Use in Early-Onset Cannabis Users vs Co-twin Controls

Context Previous studies have reported that early initiation of cannabis (marijuana) use is a significant risk factor for other drug use and drug-related problems. Objective To examine whether the association between early cannabis use and subsequent progression to use of other drugs and drug abuse/dependence persists after controlling for genetic and shared environmental influences. Design Cross-sectional survey conducted in 1996-2000 among an Australian national volunteer sample of 311 young adult (median age, 30 years) monozygotic and dizygotic same-sex twin pairs discordant for early cannabis use (before age 17 years). Main Outcome Measures Self-reported subsequent nonmedical use of prescription sedatives, hallucinogens, cocaine/other stimulants, and opioids; abuse or dependence on these drugs (including cannabis abuse/dependence); and alcohol dependence. Results Individuals who used cannabis by age 17 years had odds of other drug use, alcohol dependence, and drug abuse/dependence that were 2.1 to 5.2 times higher than those of their co-twin, who did not use cannabis before age 17 years. Controlling for known risk factors (early-onset alcohol or tobacco use, parental conflict/separation, childhood sexual abuse, conduct disorder, major depression, and social anxiety) had only negligible effects on these results. These associations did not differ significantly between monozygotic and dizygotic twins. Conclusions Associations between early cannabis use and later drug use and abuse/dependence cannot solely be explained by common predisposing genetic or shared environmental factors. The association may arise from the effects of the peer and social context within which cannabis is used and obtained. In particular, early access to and use of cannabis may reduce perceived barriers against the use of other illegal drugs and provide access to these drugs.

A rapid method for determining recent sunscreen use in field studies

The role of sunscreens in preventing skin cancer and melanoma is the focus of ongoing research. Currently, there is no objective measure which can be used in field studies to determine whether a person has applied sunscreen to their skin, and researchers must use indirect assessments such as questionnaires. We sought to develop a rapid, non-invasive method for identifying sunscreen on the skin for use in epidemiological studies. Our basic method is to swab the skin, elute any residues which have been adsorbed onto the swab by rinsing in ethanol, and submit the eluted washings for spectrophotometric analysis. In a controlled study, we applied 0.1 ml of sunscreen to a 50 cm(2) grid on both forearms of 21 volunteers. Each forearm was allocated one of 10 different sunscreen brands. The skin was swabbed after intervals of 20 min, 1 h, 2 h and 4 h. In a field study conducted among 12 children aged 2-4 years attending a child care centre, sunscreen was applied to the faces of half the children. Swabs were then taken from the face and back of all children without knowledge of sunscreen status. In the controlled study, sunscreen was clearly detectable up to 2 h after application for all brands containing organic sunscreen, and marginally detectable at 4 h. In the field study, this method correctly identified all children with and without sunscreen. We conclude that spectrophotometric analysis of skin swabs can reliably detect the presence of sunscreen on the skin for up to 2 It after application. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Key issues in determining the ethics of research subject payment: the special case of drug abuse epidemiology

The authors identify key issues that researchers, funding bodies, ethics committees and ethicists might consider in contemplating research subject payment ethics. They argue that what is missing from the broader debate is due consideration of ethics committee decision processes; research subject reasons for participation; and current research practices. The authors explore these issues and how they relate to existing guidelines on voluntary consent, and arguments that have been proposed for and against research subject payments. (non- author abstract)