Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds

During April-May 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instru- ments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14e23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourly- averaged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.

Colloidal gas aphrons (CGA): dispersion and structural features

Colloidal gas aphrons (CGA) have previously been defined as surfactant stabilized gas microbubbles and characterized for a number of surfactants in terms of stability, gas holdup and bubble size even though there is no conclusive evidence of their structure (that is, orientation of surfactant molecules at the gas–liquid interface, thickness of gas–liquid interface, and/or number of surfactant layers). Knowledge of the structure would enable us to use these dispersions more efficiently for their diverse applications (such as for removal of dyes, recovery of proteins, and enhancement of mass transfer in bioreactors). This study investigates dispersion and structural features of CGA utilizing a range of novel predictive (for prediction of aphron size and drainage rate) and experimental (electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction) methods. Results indicate structural differences between foams and CGA, which may have been caused by a multilayer structure of the latter as suggested by the electron and X-ray diffraction analysis.

Dispersion of a point-source release of a passive scalar through an urban-like array for different wind directions

The dispersion of a point-source release of a passive scalar in a regular array of cubical, urban-like, obstacles is investigated by means of direct numerical simulations. The simulations are conducted under conditions of neutral stability and fully rough turbulent flow, at a roughness Reynolds number of Reτ = 500. The Navier–Stokes and scalar equations are integrated assuming a constant rate release from a point source close to the ground within the array. We focus on short-range dispersion, when most of the material is still within the building canopy. Mean and fluctuating concentrations are computed for three different pressure gradient directions (0◦ , 30◦ , 45◦). The results agree well with available experimental data measured in a water channel for a flow angle of 0◦ . Profiles of mean concentration and the three-dimensional structure of the dispersion pattern are compared for the different forcing angles. A number of processes affecting the plume structure are identified and discussed, including: (i) advection or channelling of scalar down ‘streets’, (ii) lateral dispersion by turbulent fluctuations and topological dispersion induced by dividing streamlines around buildings, (iii) skewing of the plume due to flow turning with height, (iv) detrainment by turbulent dispersion or mean recirculation, (v) entrainment and release of scalar in building wakes, giving rise to ‘secondary sources’, (vi) plume meandering due to unsteady turbulent fluctuations. Finally, results on relative concentration fluctuations are presented and compared with the literature for point source dispersion over flat terrain and urban arrays. Keywords Direct numerical simulation · Dispersion modelling · Urban array

Portfolio size and the reduction of dispersion: the case of the United Kingdom commercial real estate market

This paper investigates the potential benefits and limitations of equal and value-weighted diversification using as the example the UK institutional property market. To achieve this it uses the largest sample (392) of actual property returns that is currently available, over the period 1981 to 1996. To evaluate these issues two approaches are adopted; first, an analysis of the correlations within the sectors and regions and secondly simulations of property portfolios of increasing size constructed both naively and with value-weighting. Using these methods it is shown that the extent of possible risk reduction is limited because of the high positive correlations between assets in any portfolio, even when naively diversified. It is also shown that portfolios exhibit high levels of variability around the average risk, suggesting that previous work seriously understates the number of properties needed to achieve a satisfactory level of diversification. The results have implications for the development and maintenance of a property portfolio because they indicate that the achievable level of risk reduction depends upon the availability of assets, the weighting system used and the investor’s risk tolerance.

Conductance of amyloid β based peptide filaments: structure–function relations.

Controlling the morphology of self-assembled peptide nanostructures, particularly those based on amyloid peptides, has been the focus of intense research. In order to exploit these structures in electronic applications, further understanding of their electronic behavior is required. In this work, the role of peptide morphology in determining electronic conduction along self-assembled peptide nanofilament networks is demonstrated. The peptides used in this work were based on the sequence AAKLVFF, which is an extension of a core sequence from the amyloid b peptide. We show that the incorporation of a non-natural amino acid, 2-thienylalanine, instead of phenylalanine improves the obtained conductance with respect to that obtained for a similar structure based on the native sequence, which was not the case for the incorporation of 3-thienylalanine. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the morphology of the self-assembled structures, which can be controlled by the solvent used in the assembly process, strongly affects the conductance, with larger conduction obtained for a morphology of long, straight filaments. Our results demonstrate that, similar to natural systems, the assembly and folding of peptides could be of great importance for optimizing their function as components of electronic devices. Hence, sequence design and assembly conditions can be used to control the performance of peptide based structures in such electronic applications.

Young people’s caring relations and transitions within families affected by HIV

This chapter provides insight into young people’s caring relations and transitions within what is often considered a particularly ‘troubling’ familial context in both the global North and South: living with HIV. I analyse the findings from two qualitative studies of young people’s caring roles in families affected by HIV in the UK, Tanzania and Uganda from the perspective of a feminist ethics of care, emotion work and life course transitions.

Transatlantic Relations: Sharing Ideals and Costs

A study of European relations with the USA and Canada after the end of the Cold War

Haunted by History: Myths in International Relations

A series of studies on interpretations of history and their use in political debates. Includes: Beatrice Heuser & Cyril Buffet: ‘Michel and Marianne’ Beatrice Heuser & Cyril Buffet: ‘Of Myths and Men’, Beatrice Heuser & Cyril Buffet: ‘Historical Myths and the Denial of Change’, Beatrice Heuser: ‘Dunkirk, Dien Bien Phu, and Suez, or why France doesn't trust allies and has learned to love the bomb’.