State-dependent threshold STAR models

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent logistic STAR and contemporaneous-threshold STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of U.S. short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

Informalidad y mercados laborales urbanos: un análisis empírico para Colombia

En este trabajo se estudian los determinantes macroeconómicos de la informalidad laboral en Colombia. Teniendo en cuenta varias definiciones de informalidad, se encuentra que este fenómeno tiene una relación inversa con el nivel de educación de la población ocupada y el grado de desarrollo industrial de las ciudades. También se observa que un sector público muy grande genera un efecto positivo sobre la informalidad, lo cual indica que existen posibles ineficiencias estatales o cargas institucionales que afectan la decisión de formalizarse. Así mismo se evidencia que existe un importante efecto local en la informalidad asociado con la estructura productiva e integración comercial, que dependen de la ubicación geográfica de las ciudades.

Aggregation mediated by faeces and footprints in Triatoma pseudomaculata (Heteroptera: Reduviidae), a Chagas disease vector

The behavioural response of Triatoma pseudomaculata to chemical substances present in their faeces or cuticle (footprints) was analyzed. Groups of larvae were simultaneously exposed to a clean filter paper and to another paper impregnated with a chemical stimulus in a circular arena. In these choice experiments, the insects aggregated significantly around papers impregnated with dry faeces. In addition, the bugs also showed a significant aggregation response to papers impregnated with compounds derived from their cuticle that were deposited by contact on the substrate. These results indicate that chemical compounds that affect the behaviour of T. pseudomaculata are present in the faeces and in the cuticle of this species. Results are discussed in relation to chemical communication in the Triatominae, as well as to the potential use of these substances in traps or sensors for the detection of this species.

2006 Drugs estimate refuels debate on governance, Issue 17, Spring 2006

In November 2005 €34.027 million was voted for the Drugs Initiative, which funds the local and regional drugs task forces, and the Young People’s Facilities and Services Fund (YPFSF), in 2006 – an 8 per cent increase on the allocation for 2005 and ‘well in excess of inflation’ according to the government. The community sector strongly criticised this estimate, calling for an additional €8 million to €15 million, to fund the projects identified following the creation of the Emerging Needs Fund in January 2005. In February 2006, the government revised its drugs estimate upwards by a further €8.979 million. As well as criticising the 2006 drugs estimate, the community sector raised a series of concerns with regard to governance – the rules, processes and behaviour that affect the way in which powers are exercised4 – or, in short, decision-making with regard to drugs policy in Ireland.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

La cascarilla cerámica y su uso innovador

The ceramic shell is a material mainly used for making foundry molds. This research demonstrates that ceramic shell can be used for making sculptures with exceptional definition in its finish. The research has identified a number of advantages of the material to meet the challenges of an artist during the making of a sculpture. The research has been developed in six stages: In the first stage data were collected from the chaff as the process material. This was the starting point for research. In the second stage, we have set the appropriate composition of the slurry, both in percentage and type of binder, and firing curve. To this end, we evaluated the application characteristics, thickness, drying, mechanical strength, the reduction coefficient and porosity. In the third stage it was observed that the husk is suitable for all types of materials acting as support. It was also found that the slurry can be used with various sculptural processes: modeling, molding using silicone or plaster mold, shuttering, with internal metal frame, and so on. In addition, we have established methods to repair and modify the husk by hand and power tools. In the fourth stage we have found ways to modify the surface of the husk with other minerals that affect the structure: introduction of filing of copper, bronze and iron in the slurry ceramics, different staining procedure in hot or cold, by enamel slip, and so on. In the fifth stage sculptures were made using the methods established in the previous stages, to verify this hypothesis. The sixth stage, which is annexed, contains a new method to process the ceramic shell as a mold in casting that emerged from the proven methods in the investigation.

Estudi comparatiu de factors d’incidència en el temps d’estada d’infants i adolescents en diversos centres residencials d’acció educativa (CRAE)

L’estudi es proposa saber si hi ha factors individuals dels infants i adolescents, factors familiars i/o de l’entorn que incideixen en el temps d’estada d’un infant o adolescent en un CRAE. L’estudi també es proposa analitzar els factors institucionals per saber si aquests poden explicar el temps d’estada dels menors en un centre. La mostra, extreta de la base de dades de la Direcció General de la Infància i l’Adolescència, és de 350 individus, amb un internament mitjà de 491 dies, que s’incrementa per cada any d’edat de l’infant en 47 dies. Els resultats mostren que no hi ha un sol factor determinant que incideixi en el temps d’internament, sinó que són una combinació: l’edat del menor, el motiu d’ingrés, les activitats d’alt risc i els conflictes relacionals de risc entre els progenitors, la freqüència de la relació familiar, les característiques personals de l’infant i el tipus i nivell d’integració d’aquest en el centre. La tipologia i les característiques de cada CRAE influeixen en el temps d’estada en un centre (si és exclusivament per a nois disminueix l’estada, mentre que, si és religiós, l’estada s’allarga), però no en les mesures d’èxit pel que fa al desinternament i definides en la recerca, que són homogènies en tots els tipus de centres.

Análisis de contenidos de páginas web sobre servicios de control de plagas en salud pública

Introduction: Our goal was to know the web contents and examine the technical information pest control services available to users through their webpages. Method: A total of 70 webpages from biocides services in the province of Málaga (Spain) were analyzed. We used 15 evaluation indicators grouped into 5 parameters relating to data of the service provider; information’s reliability and services; accuracy of content and writing style; technical resources and interaction with the users. As test instruments were used sectoral legislation, official records of products and deliveries, standards and technical guides. Results: Companies showed a remarkable degree of awareness with the implementation and use of new technologies. Aspects negative that they can have an impact on the confidence of users, relating to the reliability of the information and deficiencies associated with the description of the services portfolio and credentials of the companies were identified. The integration and use of collaborative platforms 2.0 was poorly developed and squandered. Discussion: It is possible to improve the trust of users intervening in those aspects that affect the reliability of the information provided on the web.

Determinants of acquisition completion: a relational perspective

The strategic literature on relatedness in the context of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) is extensive, yet we know little about whether or how relatedness has an influence on the announcement to completion stage of the M&A process. Drawing on research on intra-industry competition and relational capabilities, we seek to shed light on the relatedness debate by examining the strategic forces that affect the completion of an announced related M&A, accounting for financial and organizational factors. We also explore additional strategic forces that might amplify or attenuate the negative effect of relatedness on deal completion. We test and find support for our hypotheses using longitudinal data from a sample of the largest M&A announcements in the world from 1991 to 2001.

Condition of Employment, 2003

For much of American economic history, strength and manual dexterity could assure both a job and a reasonably comfortable standard of living. This is no longer the case as the industrial structure of American society has moved from agricultural to manufacturing to a service-producing economy. Today, we are changing the way we look at industries, jobs and, by extension, our economy. One of the responsibilities of Iowa Workforce Development is to study and report on those aspects of the economy that affect the working lives of Iowans – jobs, industrial employment, wages, and occupations. Condition of Employment 2003 is one of the vehicles we use to describe trends in the Iowa economy and the Iowa workplace.

Lastenkulttuuripoliittisesta ohjelmasta tilanvuokraustoimintaan : lastenkulttuuritarjonnan muodostuminen Helsingin alueellisissa kulttuurikeskuksissa

Then aim of this thesis is to investigate children's culture in the regional cultural centres of Helsinki, namely Stoa, Malmitalo and Kanneltalo. The main objective was to identify how the center's repertoire for children forms. Moreover, a further research question was how different fields of art as well as proposals for action defined by the Children's Culture Programme, are portrayed in the repertoire of the regional cultural centres. The Ministry of Education's missions are to plan cultural and artistic policies, to support the industry financially, and to prepare cultural legislation. The Ministry promotes children's culture with a variety of programs and projects. The basis of the thesis is formed by the Finnish Ministry of Education's Children's Culture Programme, published in 2003. The goal of the programme is to give direction to the promotion of children's culture from 2003 to 2007. The programme presented proposals for action in different fields of art that are directed towards a broad range of implementors. In addition, in the theoretical section the focus is on the research of the Ministry of Education, the Art Council of Finland and the Municipalities. The research investigates the roles in children's culture as well as the activities of regional cultural centers. The qualitative analysis has been conducted by interviewing the employees of these regional cultural centers. The factors that affect and hinder the composition of the children's programme's repertoire are analysed based on the results of the interviews. The factors that affect the composition are the supply, the facilities and the possibilities provided by cooperation. The results section examines how the Children's Cultural Programme presents different fields of art. What is also taken into account is focal points connected to them, the proposals for action when building the repertoire. The results of the interviews indicate that the repertoire of the regional cultural centres is very diverse and it often meets the propositions of the children's cultural programme. However, the contents of the program were unknown for many. Various fields of art have been catered for in the children's repertoire and the supply is of good quality. The City of Helsinki Cultural Office's upcoming change in the administration was also mentioned, as the interviewees contemplated its future effects.

Will EMU increase eurosclerosis?

In this paper we study the relationship between labor market institutions and monetary policy. We use a simple macroeconomic framework to show how optimal monetary policy rules depend on labor institutions (labor adjustment costs, and nominal and real wage rigitidy) and social preferences regarding inflation, employment, and real wages. We also calibrate our model tocompute how the change in social welfare brought about by giving up monetary policy as a result of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) depends on institutions and preferences. We then use the calibrated model to analyze how EMU affects the incentives for labor market reform, both for reformsthat increase the economy's adjustment potential and for those that affect the long-run unemployment rate.

Atteintes de la chevill et du tarse postérieur dans les maladies métaboliques

De nombreuses maladies métaboliques peuvent atteindre la cheville et le tarse postérieur. Dans la phase aiguë, la goutte peut toucher l'arrière-pied, la cheville, le médio-tarse ou le tendon calcanéen. Une rougeur intense des tissus souscutanés du dos du pied peut être en rapport avec une inflammation liée à des microtophus sous-cutanés. Un diagnostic de certitude se fait par la mise en évidence de cristaux d'urate de sodium dans le liquide de ponction articulaire ou dans les tissus. L'imagerie par tomodensitométrie ou par échographie peut orienter de façon pratiquement certaine le diagnostic. Le traitement de la goutte de l'arrière-pied fait appel aux antiinflammatoires, aux anti-inflammatoires non stéroïdiens (AINS) et à la colchicine. Dans la phase chronique, un traitement hypo-uricémiant au long terme est à instaurer. L'hémochromatose se manifeste principalement sous forme d'une arthrose, liée souvent à une chondrocalcinose de la cheville et du tarse postérieur. L'enthésopathie hyperostosante diffuse peut causer des talalgies ou des douleurs du fascia plantaire liées à des exostoses. L'hypercholestérolémie familiale provoque souvent des xanthomes tendineux des tendons calcanéens. Des calcifications apatitiques de la région du talon peuvent s'observer, notamment chez des patients en hémodialyse chronique. Numerous metabolic diseases can affect the ankle and the hind-foot. In the acute phase, gout can affect the rear of the foot, the ankle, the mid-foot and the calcaneal (Achilles) tendon. Intense redness of the subcutaneous tissue of the back of the foot can be present in conjunction with inflammation associated with subcutaneous micro-tophaceous deposits. A definitive diagnosis is made by confirming the existence of sodium urate crystals in joint puncture fluid or in tissue. CT scan or ultrasonography images can also be used to provide a fairly definitive diagnosis. Treatment of gout of the rear of the foot requires the use of anti-inflammatory medication, NSAIDs and colchicine. In the chronic phase, long-term hypouricemic therapy is to be used. Haemochromatosis mainly shows in the form of arthritis, often associated with chondrocalcinosis of the ankle and hind-foot. A diffuse hyperostosis enthesopathy can cause talalgia or pain to the plantar fascia associated with exostoses. Familial hypercholesterolaemia often leads to tendinous xanthoma on the calcaneal tendons. Apatitic calcifications to the heel can also be observed, especially undergoing chronic haemodialysis.

Use of Incentive/Disincentive Contracting to Mitigate Work Zone Traffic Impacts, 2012

Incentive/disincentive clauses (I/D) are designed to award payments to contractors if they complete work ahead of schedule and to deduct payments if they exceed the completion time. A previously unanswered question is, “Did the costs of the actual work zone impacts that were avoided justify the incentives paid?” This report answers that question affirmatively based on an evaluation of 20 I/D projects in Missouri from 2008 to 2011. Road user costs (RUC) were used to quantify work zone impacts and included travel delays, vehicle operating costs, and crash costs. These were computed using work zone traffic conditions for partial-closure projects and detour volumes and routes for full-closure projects. Conditions during construction were compared to after construction. Crash costs were computed using Highway Safety Manual methodology. Safety Performance Functions produced annual crash frequencies that were translated into crash cost savings. In considering an average project, the percentage of RUC savings was around 13% of the total contract amount, or $444,389 of $3,464,620. The net RUC savings produced was around $7.2 million after subtracting the approximately $1.7 million paid in incentives. In other words, for every dollar paid in incentives, approximately 5.3 dollars of RUC savings resulted. I/D provisions were very successful in saving RUC for projects with full-closure, projects in urban areas, and emergency projects. Rural, non-emergency projects successfully saved RUC but not at the same level as other projects. The I/D contracts were also compared to all Missouri Department of Transportation contracts for the same time period. The results show that I/D projects had a higher on-time completion percentage and a higher number of bids per call than average projects. But I/D projects resulted in 4.52% higher deviation from programmed costs and possibly more changes made after the award. A survey of state transportation departments and contractors showed that both agreed to the same issues that affect the success of I/D contracts. Legal analysis suggests that liquidated damages is preferred to disincentives, since enforceability of disincentives may be an issue. Overall, in terms of work zone impact mitigation, I/D contracts are very effective at a relatively low cost.

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Estudio sobre los procesos de integración laboral de los inmigrantes. Study of immigrants' labour integration process

El presente trabajo pretende mostrar los resultados de un estudio cuya intención era identificar posibles variables que afectan a los procesos y estrategias de integración laboral de personas procedentes de otros países; las necesidades formativas en relación al colectivo de referencia y ampliar el conocimiento del fenómeno en aras de la intervención psicoeducativa y social. A partir de una metodología de investigación de orientación cualitativa se ha concluido que las diferencias en cuanto a las estrategias de integración y sus logros están más determinadas por los niveles de cualificación en el país de origen que por las propias diferencias culturales. The article shows the results of a study carried out by the authors to identify possible variables that affect the processes and strategies of occupational integration of people coming from other countries, to establish training needs in relation to the reference group and to extend the knowledge of the phenomenon for the sake of the educational and social intervention. Using a qualitative research methodology, it was concluded that the differences in integration strategies and their accomplishments are better explained by the levels of qualification attained in the country of origin than by cultural differences.