Low key but not low impact: the results of the EU's 'transition' summit. EPC Post-Summit Analysis, 27 October 2014

The European Council Summit of 23-24 October 2014 may have been relatively low key, but many important decisions were made which could encourage historical changes. In this post-summit analysis, Janis A. Emmanouilidis examines the agreement reached on a new climate and energy policy framework for 2020-2030 which despite falling short of the European Commission’s original proposals, it nevertheless delivers a positive message to international community ahead of the global climate negotiations next year. He also highlights the significance of the request from euro-zone leaders for a new report on ‘better economic governance’ by December. More broadly, he uses this moment of transition in the EU’s leadership to analyse the current state and future direction of the Union, and underlines the need to provide a coherent and holistic response to the damage caused by the crisis and the challenges facing the Union, on the basis of an ambitious but pragmatic ‘package deal’ – a new pact between EU governments, and between the Union and its citizens – to heal the divisions of recent years and restore public faith in the benefits of EU membership.

Any changes? The future agenda of Sweden's security policy. OSW Commentary No. 126, 28.01.2014

Sweden’s annual security and defence conference, which this year focused on the future of the country’s security policy, was held in Sälen on 12-14 January. It was attended by almost all the leaders of Sweden’s ruling and opposition parties. The discussions have revealed whether and how the mindset of the Swedish elite has changed following the heated debates on defence issues in 2013. The opposition parties (Social Democrats, the Green Party, and the Left Party), which are likely to form a coalition government after the election to the Swedish parliament in September 2014, were given the opportunity to present their own priorities. The discussions have brought to the surface conflicting perceptions within the political elite concerning the threats and challenges to Swedish security, and divergent positions on the future direction of the country’s security and defence policy. It is highly likely that, due to a coalition compromise, the current course of Sweden’s security policy (namely, a policy of non-alignment along with close co-operation with NATO) will be maintained following the parliamentary election, albeit with new “leftist” influences (a greater involvement in the United Nations). Big changes that could lead to a significant strengthening of Sweden’s defence capabilities, or a decision on NATO membership, are not likely. Paradoxically, polls suggest that in the long run a more radical change in Stockholm’s security policy may be shaped by a gradual, bottom-up evolution of public opinion on the issue.

Sitting on the fence: Swedish defence policy and the Baltic Sea region. OSW Point of View Number 33, April 2013

Sweden finds itself in the midst of the most heated debates about defence policy and the direction of military reforms since the end of the Cold War, as Stockholm faces the challenge of finding a new military security formula. From the Swedish point of view, the post-Cold War strategic timeout in Europe is coming to an end. The international environment is reverting to a situation in which the use of force among states is no longer an improbable scenario. Stockholm cannot rule out the emergence of crises or conflicts in Northern Europe in the future, which could directly or indirectly affect Sweden. In this context, the transformations of Sweden’s defence policy over the past twenty years have become a problem. Sweden has moved from neutrality, i.e. non-involvement on any side of an armed interstate conflict, to non-alignment, whereby it stays outside military alliances and freely shapes its policies during wartime. It has joined the European Union and co-operates closely with NATO on foreign missions. Its ability to defend its own territory, however, has diminished.

The Pro-Western Turn in Russia's Foreign Policy: Causes, Consequences and Prospects. OSW Point of View, September 2002

From Europe and Poland's point of view, one of the most important recent developments in international politics was the re-orientation of Russia's foreign policy. This paper aims to answer three important questions relating to this issue: 4. When and why did the "pro-Western turn" in the Russian Federation's policy take place? 5. Has it been profitable for Russia? 6. What goals will the Russian policy pursue in the future? An analysis of the last two years in Russia's foreign policy leads to the several conclusions, including those: 5. Clearly, the Russian leaders realise that in the longer term, Russia - in its desire for more influence in the world - will not be able to survive as an independent pole of power in international politics and it will have to join forces with the West (most likely, the European Union). 6. September 11 was not the cause of Russia's pro-Western turn, but rather a catalyst that put the process which started when Vladimir Putin took his office in sharp focus. 7. In the nearest future, this new direction of Russia's foreign policy seems not be challenged by internal opposition in Russia. 8. The "pro-Western turn" proved to be beneficial for Russia, although: d. Russia has not become a strategic ally of the US e. There has been no breakthrough in the relations between Russia and the European Union, and Moscow has not gained any real influence on NATO's important decisions. f. Russia has not become a major decision-maker of international politics. 5. Russia's closing to the West is in Poland's and Europe's interest.

Building up European leadership - an assessment of the recent process. CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22 - Challenges and new beginnings: Priorities for the EU's new leadership, September 2014.

Europe is in need of a new leadership capacity able to recreate stronger European unity in the external and internal fronts. Otherwise, anti-European forces will increase their influence and presence in European governments and EU institutions with large implications for the direction of European integration. This will be the central concern in making a first short assessment of the recent process of building European leadership capacity for the next five years to come. This assessment will particularly focus on the choice of the President of the European Commission, of the President of the European Council and, finally of the members of the European Commission.

The "Pro-Western Turn" in Russia's Foreign Policy: Causes, Consequences and Prospects. OSW Point of View (unspecified), September 2002

From Europe and Poland's point of view, one of the most important recent developments in international politics was the re-orientation of Russia's foreign policy. This paper aims to answer three important questions relating to this issue: 1. When and why did the "pro-Western turn" in the Russian Federation's policy take place? 2. Has it been profitable for Russia? 3. What goals will the Russian policy pursue in the future? An analysis of the last two years in Russia's foreign policy leads to the several conclusions, including those: a. Clearly, the Russian leaders realise that in the longer term, Russia - in its desire for more influence in the world - will not be able to survive as an independent pole of power in international politics and it will have to join forces with the West (most likely, the European Union). b. September 11 was not the cause of Russia's pro-Western turn, but rather a catalyst that put the process which started when Vladimir Putin took his office in sharp focus. 7. In the nearest future, this new direction of Russia's foreign policy seems not be challenged by internal opposition in Russia. c. The "pro-Western turn" proved to be beneficial for Russia, although: d. Russia has not become a strategic ally of the US e. There has been no breakthrough in the relations between Russia and the European Union, and Moscow has not gained any real influence on NATO's important decisions. f. Russia has not become a major decision-maker of international politics. g. Russia's closing to the West is in Poland's and Europe's interest.

Ownership and Investment Behaviour in Transition Countries: A Case Study of Collective and Corporate Farms in the Czech Republic. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 17, February 2012

Cooperative and corporate farms have retained an important role for agricultural production in many transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Despite this importance, these farms' ownership structure, and particularly the ownership's effect on their investment activity, which is vital for efficient restructuring and the sector's future development, are still not well understood. This paper explores the ownership-investment relationship using data on Czech farms from 1997 to 2008. We allow for ownership-specific variability in farm investment behaviour analyzed by utilizing an error-correction accelerator model. Empirical results suggest significant differences in the level of investment activity, responsiveness to market signals, investment lumpiness, as well as investment sensitivity to financial variables among farms with different ownership characteristics. These differences imply that the internal structure of the Czech cooperative and corporate farms will be developing in the direction of a decreasing number of owners and an increasing ownership concentration.

Key Issues in Agricultural Labour Markets: A Review of Major Studies and Project Reports on Agriculture and Rural Labour Markets. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 20, February 2012

This paper provides a synthesis of the empirical literature on the key issues in agricultural and rural labour markets since 1960s, drawing mainly upon studies from the United States and the European Union, but also including relevant material from developing countries. The contribution of this meta-analysis lies in its unique structure as it covers the main research questions which have been addressed in the literature and includes the most cited papers from the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Agricultural Economics, European Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economics as well as other reports and EU funded projects. Each research question is accompanied by tabular summaries which classify the individual studies according to the methodology and the variables employed. The heterogeneous conditions across countries, the different research questions and methodologies, and the type of data employed, have sometimes led to conflicting results. Nonetheless, by comparing the results it is possible to assess the significance and the direction of the determinants of rural labour allocation and its adjustments, and thus contribute to a better understanding on the functioning of rural labour markets. Lastly, by recognising the importance of the institutional framework, the paper provides useful policy insights.

Comparison of PRC and Vietnam's Responses to the Elimination of U.S. Textile and Apparel Quotas: Economic and Cultural Perspectives. ACES Working Paper No. 1, 2007

International trade in textiles and apparel has, as of January 1, 2005, been set free from the very intricate Multi-Fiber textile and apparel quota Arrangement (MFA). This event has raised many uncertainties about the new international trade climate and has placed enormous pressure on China as the expected clear cut beneficiary of this liberalization.' Other countries considered to be major contenders include Vietnam which also has a large population employed in the textile and apparel (T&A) sector. Since the old quota system had provided a certain degree of market certainty to competing T&A producers, will the new free trade environment lead to a shake out where mass producers with large economies of scale dominate the new reality? The removal of T&A quotas will create opportunities for Vietnam and China along with other developing countries, but it will also expose them to additional competition from each other. The outcome of this competition will depend on the demand in the US, the ability of the exporting countries to differentiate their exports and on their ability to transfer additional resources to expand domestic output in the direction of the new 'free market signals' and away from rent seeking objectives. Obviously, exporting countries that adjust to this new environment quickly will improve their competitiveness, and will be the new beneficiaries of a quota free international trade in textiles and apparel. This paper attempts to shed some light on the differences and similarities in the responses of Chinese and Vietnamese T&A sectors to this new environment. It first focuses on the demand side attempting to determine whether or not Chinese and Vietnamese T&A items, formally under quota control, are substitutes or compliments. On the supply side, the paper focuses on institutional differences between each country's T&A sectors, the different domestic government policies that have contributed to their growth and the unique cultural differences which will determine the future progress in each country's T&A sectors.

Statistical grain size parameter of surface samples from Kiel Bay

Geological observations, using "free-diving" techniques (Figure I) were made in September, 1960 and March 1961 along two continuous profiles in the outer Kiel Harbor, Germany and at several other spot locations in the Western Baltic Sea. A distinct terrace, cut in Pleistocene glacial till, was found that was covered with varying amounts and types of recent deposits. Hand samples were taken of the sea-floor sediments and grainsize distribution determined for both the sediment as a whole and for its heavy mineral fraction. From the Laboratory and Field observations it was possible to recognize two distinct types of sand; Type I, Sand resulting from transportation over a long period of time and distance and Type 11, Sand resulting from little transportation and found today near to xvhere it was formed. Several criterea related to the agent of movement could be used to classify the nature of the sediment; (1) undisturbed (the sediment Cover of the Pleistocene Terrace is essentially undisturbed), (2) mixed by organisms, (3) transported by water movements (sediment found with ripple marks, etc., and (4) "Scoured" (the movement of individual particles of sediment from around larger boulders causes a slow downward movement or "Creeping" which is due to both the force of gravity and bottom currents. These observations and laboratory studies are discussed concerning their relationship to the formation of residual sediments, the direction of sand transportation, and the intensive erosion on the outer edge of the wave-cut platform found in this part of the Baltic Sea.

(Table 3) Chemical composition of basalts from Kolbeinsey Ridge and adjacent areas

Petrochemical variations in composition of basalts along the axial part of the Kolbeinsey mid-ocean ridge were studied. It was found that principal mass of these basalts has tholeiitic composition. Alkalinity of these basalts increases near zones of transform transverse faults; it increases likewise toward Iceland, and especially in the direction of Jan Mayen Island.

(Table 2) Depth-age control points of ODP Site 177-1090

At Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1090 on the Agulhas Ridge (subantarctic South Atlantic) benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records span the late Oligocene through the early Miocene (25~16 Ma) at a temporal resolution of ?10 kyr. In the same time interval a magnetic polarity stratigraphy can be unequivocally correlated to the geomagnetic polarity timescale (GPTS), thereby providing secure correlation of the isotope record to the GPTS. On the basis of the isotope-magnetostratigraphic correlation we provide refined age calibration of established oxygen isotope events Mi1 through Mi2 as well as several other distinctive isotope events. Our data suggest that the d18O maximum commonly associated with the Oligocene/Miocene (O/M) boundary falls within C6Cn.2r (23.86 Ma). The d13C maximum coincides, within the temporal resolution of our record, with C6Cn.2n/r boundary and hence to the O/M boundary. Comparison of the stable isotope record from ODP Site 1090 to the orbitally tuned stable isotope record from ODP Site 929 across the O/M boundary shows that variability in the two records is very similar and can be correlated at and below the O/M boundary. Site 1090 stable isotope records also provide the first deep Southern Ocean end-member for reconstructions of circulation patterns and late Oligocene to early Miocene climate change. Comparison to previously published records suggests that basin to basin carbon isotope gradients were small or nonexistent and are inconclusive with respect to the direction of deep water flow. Oxygen isotope gradients between sites suggest that the deep Southern Ocean was cold in comparison to the North Atlantic, Indian, and the Pacific Oceans. Dominance of cold Southern Component Deep Water at Site 1090, at least until 17 Ma, suggests that relatively cold circumpolar climatic conditions prevailed during the late Oligocene and early Miocene. We believe that a relatively cold Southern Ocean reflects unrestricted circumpolar flow through the Drake Passage in agreement with bathymetric reconstructions.

(Table 2) Presence of plant remains in sediment core GIK14973, northern Kattegat

For the first time detailed physical properties were measured in addition to sedimentological parameters of near surface sediments of Kattegat channel system. This study has been accomplished on two sediment cores of different waterdepth of each Alkor-deep and Littorina-deep. The sediments of Littorina-deep, which have been dated with 210Pb-method, turned out to be surprisingly recent, with sedimentation rates up to 3,2 cm/year. Differences in physical properties lead to the assumption of lower sedimentation rates in Alkor-deep, the velocities of bottom and deepwater currents could be the cause of these differences in sedimentation rates. In Alkor-deep, the morphology runs parallel to the main direction of the bottom current. Therefore higher current velocities can be reached, which favor the erosion of fine sediment particles. Littorina-deep is located rectangular to the main direction of bottom currents. This might lead to an 'overflow' situation instead of a 'flow through'.

(Table T1) Dissolved carbohydrate concentrations of interstitial waters from seven ODP Leg 201 sites

Total dissolved carbohydrates (DCHOs) were determined in interstitial waters collected at open-ocean and Peru margin sites cored during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 201. Concentrations of DCHOs ranged from 0 to ~1500 µM and showed no consistent trends between open-ocean and Peru margin sites either in the magnitude or direction of downhole interstitial water gradients. In contrast, relative DCHO concentrations (normalized to dissolved organic carbon concentrations) were higher in open-ocean vs. margin sediments. These trends are consistent with results from more shallow estuarine and nearshore continental margin sediments and may be related to changes in the overall controls on sediment organic matter remineralization with decreasing remineralization rates.

Geochemistry of sediments from the upwelling off Morocco

The high-productive upwelling area off Morocco is part of one of the four major trade-wind driven continental margin upwelling zones in the world oceans. While coastal upwelling occurs mostly on the shelf, biogenic particles derived from upwelling are deposited mostly at the upper continental slope. Nutrient-rich coastal water is transported within the Cape Ghir filament region at 30°N up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore. Both upwelling intensity and filament activity are dependent on the strength of the summer Trades. This study is aimed to reconstruct changes in trade wind intensity over the last 250,000 years by the analysis of the productivity signal contained in the sedimentary biogenic particles of the continental slope and beneath the Cape Ghir filament. Detailed geochemical and geophysical analyses (TOC, carbonate, C/N, delta13Corg, delta15N, delta13C of benthic foraminifera, delta18O of benthic and planktic foraminifera, magnetic susceptibility) have been carried out at two sites on the upper continental slope and one site located further offshore influenced by the Cape Ghir filament. A second offshore site south of the filament was analyzed (TOC, magnetic susceptibility) to distinguish the productivity signal related to the filament signal from the general offshore variability. Higher productivity during glacial times was observed at all four sites. However, the variability of productivity during glacial times was remarkably different at the filament-influenced site compared to the upwelling-influenced continental slope sites. In addition to climate-related changes in upwelling intensity, zonal shifts of the upwelling area due to sea-level changes have impacted the sedimentary productivity record, especially at the continental slope sites. By comparison with other proxies related to the strength and direction of the prevailing winds (Si/Al ratio as grain-size indicator, pollen) the productivity record at the filament-influenced site reflects mainly changes in trade-wind intensity. Our reconstruction reveals that especially during glacial times trade-wind intensity was increased and showed a strong variability with frequencies related to precession.