On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Stokes-operator-squeezed continuous-variable polarization states

We investigate nonclassical Stokes-operator variances in continuous-wave polarization-squeezed laser light generated from one and two optical parametric amplifiers. A general expression of how Stokes-operator variances decompose into two-mode quadrature operator variances is given. Stokes parameter variance spectra for four different polarization-squeezed states have been measured and compared with a coherent state. Our measurement results are visualized by three-dimensional Stokes-operator noise volumes mapped on the quantum Poincare sphere. We quantitatively compare the channel capacity of the different continuous-variable polarization states for communication protocols. It is shown that squeezed polarization states provide 33% higher channel capacities than the optimum coherent beam protocol.

The application of wave induced forces to a two-dimensional finite element long wave hydrodynamic model

This paper describes the modification of a two-dimensional finite element long wave hydrodynamic model in order to predict the net current and water levels attributable to the influences of waves. Tests examine the effects of the application of wave induced forces, including comparisons to a physical experiment. An example of a real river system is presented with comparisons to measured data, which demonstrate the importance of simulating the combined effects of tides and waves upon hydrodynamic behavior. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dimensional X: a dificuldade na obten????o da informa????o em meio a problemas na gest??o de pessoas

Ant??nio foi convidado para assumir um cargo em que deveria gerenciar os sistemas de informa????o de um grande minist??rio. Com a miss??o inicial de fornecer uma informa????o sobre a for??a de trabalho, percebeu que havia problemas que iam muito al??m da simples utiliza????o desses sistemas, como a pol??tica de capacita????o de pessoal, a rotatividade de servidores, a falta de integra????o entre as ??reas e outros problemas na ??rea de gest??o de pessoas

Comparação de desempenho entre a formulação direta do Método dos Elementos de Contorno com Funções Radiais e o Método dos Elementos Finitos em problemas de Poisson e Helmholtz

O presente trabalho objetiva avaliar o desempenho do MECID (Método dos Elementos de Contorno com Interpolação Direta) para resolver o termo integral referente à inércia na Equação de Helmholtz e, deste modo, permitir a modelagem do Problema de Autovalor assim como calcular as frequências naturais, comparando-o com os resultados obtidos pelo MEF (Método dos Elementos Finitos), gerado pela Formulação Clássica de Galerkin. Em primeira instância, serão abordados alguns problemas governados pela equação de Poisson, possibilitando iniciar a comparação de desempenho entre os métodos numéricos aqui abordados. Os problemas resolvidos se aplicam em diferentes e importantes áreas da engenharia, como na transmissão de calor, no eletromagnetismo e em problemas elásticos particulares. Em termos numéricos, sabe-se das dificuldades existentes na aproximação precisa de distribuições mais complexas de cargas, fontes ou sorvedouros no interior do domínio para qualquer técnica de contorno. No entanto, este trabalho mostra que, apesar de tais dificuldades, o desempenho do Método dos Elementos de Contorno é superior, tanto no cálculo da variável básica, quanto na sua derivada. Para tanto, são resolvidos problemas bidimensionais referentes a membranas elásticas, esforços em barras devido ao peso próprio e problemas de determinação de frequências naturais em problemas acústicos em domínios fechados, dentre outros apresentados, utilizando malhas com diferentes graus de refinamento, além de elementos lineares com funções de bases radiais para o MECID e funções base de interpolação polinomial de grau (um) para o MEF. São geradas curvas de desempenho através do cálculo do erro médio percentual para cada malha, demonstrando a convergência e a precisão de cada método. Os resultados também são comparados com as soluções analíticas, quando disponíveis, para cada exemplo resolvido neste trabalho.

Critical behavior of a three-dimensional hardcore-cylinder composite system

In this work the critical indices β, γ , and ν for a three-dimensional (3D) hardcore cylinder composite system with short-range interaction have been obtained. In contrast to the 2D stick system and the 3D hardcore cylinder system, the determined critical exponents do not belong to the same universality class as the lattice percolation,although they obey the common hyperscaling relation for a 3D system. It is observed that the value of the correlation length exponent is compatible with the predictions of the mean field theory. It is also shown that, by using the Alexander-Orbach conjuncture, the relation between the conductivity and the correlation length critical exponents has a typical value for a 3D lattice system.

Intraocular pressure measurement in sheep using an applanation tonometer

The purpose of this study was to evaluate and establish the mean values of IOP in healthy adult sheep using an applanation tonometer. Information on age, sex, and breed was obtained for all animals included in this study. Twenty five healthy sheep (Ovis aries), of the same breed (Texel), male or female, with three years of age, received an ophthalmic examination in both eyes, including pupillary reflexes, Schirmer tear test, slit lamp biomicroscopy, and fluorescein staining. For all ophthalmic testing, animals were gently physically restrained, with no pressure in the jugular area and the eyelids were carefully open. IOP was measured by applanation tonometry (Tonopen XL). The same examiner performed the tonometry; measurements were taken three times for each eye, and their average was recorded as the IOP of the animal. Statistical analysis was performed using paired t-test and values of P < 0.05 were considered significant. The mean intraocular pressure in the whole group of 50 eyes was of 16.36 +/- 2.19 mm Hg. The mean (SD) IOP in the right eye was of 15.96 +/- 2.02 mm Hg, while the mean (SD) IOP in the left eye was of 16.76 +/- 2.32 mm Hg. Significant differences in IOP were not found between right and left eyes. The applanation tonometer was adequate for measuring the intraocular pressure in sheep. Reference data will assist in diagnosing testing for ophthalmic disease in sheep, as¹ well as promote further studies in this area.

Performance measurement and management in Portuguese law enforcement

Performance measurement of police services is complicated by ambiguous and complex goal- and objectives-setting, and by the difficulties of measuring outputs. This article looks at the organizational and management changes being made in Portuguese police forces. The authors fill a gap in the literature on performance measurement in Portugal by taking a national approach to the study of how law enforcement agencies are introducing new management accounting changes. The article therefore widens the debate on performance measurement and performance improvements in law enforcement.

Improving FEM crash simulation accuracy through local thickness estimation based on CAD data

In this paper, we present a method for estimating local thickness distribution in nite element models, applied to injection molded and cast engineering parts. This method features considerable improved performance compared to two previously proposed approaches, and has been validated against thickness measured by di erent human operators. We also demonstrate that the use of this method for assigning a distribution of local thickness in FEM crash simulations results in a much more accurate prediction of the real part performance, thus increasing the bene ts of computer simulations in engineering design by enabling zero-prototyping and thus reducing product development costs. The simulation results have been compared to experimental tests, evidencing the advantage of the proposed method. Thus, the proposed approach to consider local thickness distribution in FEM crash simulations has high potential on the product development process of complex and highly demanding injection molded and casted parts and is currently being used by Ford Motor Company.

Towards a model for the measurement of data quality in websites

Websites are, nowadays, the face of institutions, but they are often neglected, especially when it comes to contents. In the present paper, we put forth an investigation work whose final goal is the development of a model for the measurement of data quality in institutional websites for health units. To that end, we have carried out a bibliographic review of the available approaches for the evaluation of website content quality, in order to identify the most recurrent dimensions and the attributes, and we are currently carrying out a Delphi Method process, presently in its second stage, with the purpose of reaching an adequate set of attributes for the measurement of content quality.

Electromagnetic tracker feasibility in the design of a dental superstructure for edentulous patients

The success of the osseointegration concept and the Brånemark protocol is highly associated to the accuracy in the production of an implant-supported prosthesis. One of most critical steps for long-term success of these prosthesis is the accuracy obtained during the impression procedure, which is affected by factors such as the impression material, implant position, angulation and depth. This paper investigates the feasibility of 3D electromagnetic motion tracking systems as an acquisition method for modeling full-arch implant-supported prosthesis. To this extent, we propose an implant acquisition method at the patient mouth and a calibration procedure, based on a 3D electromagnetic tracker that obtains combined measurements of implant’s position and angulation, eliminating the use of any impression material. Three calibration algorithms (namely linear interpolation, higher-order polynomial and Hardy multiquadric) were tested to compensate for the electromagnetic tracker distortions introduced by the presence of nearby metals. Moreover, implants from different suppliers were also tested to study its impact on tracking accuracy. The calibration methodology and the algorithms employed proved to implement a suitable strategy for the evaluation of novel dental impression techniques. However, in the particular case of the evaluated electromagnetic tracking system, the order of magnitude of the obtained errors invalidates its use for the full-arch modeling of implant-supported prosthesis.

Real-time hand tracking for rehabilitation and character animation

Hand and finger tracking has a major importance in healthcare, for rehabilitation of hand function required due to a neurological disorder, and in virtual environment applications, like characters animation for on-line games or movies. Current solutions consist mostly of motion tracking gloves with embedded resistive bend sensors that most often suffer from signal drift, sensor saturation, sensor displacement and complex calibration procedures. More advanced solutions provide better tracking stability, but at the expense of a higher cost. The proposed solution aims to provide the required precision, stability and feasibility through the combination of eleven inertial measurements units (IMUs). Each unit captures the spatial orientation of the attached body. To fully capture the hand movement, each finger encompasses two units (at the proximal and distal phalanges), plus one unit at the back of the hand. The proposed glove was validated in two distinct steps: a) evaluation of the sensors’ accuracy and stability over time; b) evaluation of the bending trajectories during usual finger flexion tasks based on the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). Results revealed that the glove was sensitive mainly to magnetic field distortions and sensors tuning. The inclusion of a hard and soft iron correction algorithm and accelerometer and gyro drift and temperature compensation methods provided increased stability and precision. Finger trajectories evaluation yielded high ICC values with an overall reliability within application’s satisfying limits. The developed low cost system provides a straightforward calibration and usability, qualifying the device for hand and finger tracking in healthcare and animation industries.

Use of Performance Measurement in the Public Sector: the case of the police service

Many public organisations have been under great pressure in recent years to increase the efficiency and transparency of outputs, to rationalise the use of public resources, and to increase the quality of service delivery. In this context, public organisations were encouraged to introduce the New Public Management reforms with the goal of improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the performance organisation through a new public management model. This new public management model is based on measurement by outputs and outcomes, a clear definition of responsibilities, the transparency and accountability of governmental activities, and on a greater value for citizens. What type of performance measurement systems are used in police services? Based on the literature, we see that multidimensional models, such as the Balanced Scorecard, are important in many public organisations, like municipalities, universities, and hospitals. Police services are characterised by complex, diverse objectives and stakeholders. Therefore, performance measurement of these public services calls for a specific analysis. Based on a nationwide survey of all police chiefs of the Portuguese police force, we find that employee performance measurement is the main form of measurement. Also, we propose a strategic map for the Portuguese police service.