Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets

The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, several conclusions are obtained about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolution. The motion is deterministic, driven by occasional random external perturbation. When the interval between two successive perturbations is sufficiently large, one can find low dimensional chaos in this regime. However, the full motion of the MG model is found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Aplicação da técnica de caminhamento elétrico em área contaminada por derivados de petróleo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Synthesis and characterization of a novel series of meso (nitrophenyl) and meso (carboxyphenyl) substituted porphyrins

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Thermal decomposition and stability in a series of heterobimetallic carbonyl compounds of the type [Fe(CO)4(HgX)2] (X=Cl, Br, I)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Correlation of reactivity with structural factors in a series of Fe(II) substituted cobalt ferrites

A series of powdered cobalt ferrites, CoxFe3-xO4 with 0.66 <= x< 1.00 containing different amounts of Fe-II, were synthesized by a mild procedure, and their Fe and Co site occupancies and structural characteristics were explored using X-ray anomalous scattering and the Rietveld refinement method. The dissolution kinetics, measured in 0.1 M oxalic acid aqueous solution at 70 degrees C, indicate in all cases the operation of a contracting volume rate law. The specific rates increased with the Fell content following approximately a second-order polynomial expression. This result suggests that the transfer of Fe-III controls the dissolution rate, and that the leaching of a first layer of ions Co-II and Fe-II leaves exposed a surface enriched in slower dissolving octahedral Fe-III ions. Within this model, inner vicinal lattice Fe-II accelerates the rate of Fe-III transfer via internal electron hopping. A chain mechanism, involving successive electron transfers, fits the data very well. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IN-VITRO INHIBITION OF SPORES GERMINATION OF ALTERNARIA-SOLANI BY 3 FUNGICIDES

In vitro inhibition of the of spores germination of Alternaria solani by iprodione, chlorothalonil, and anilazine at different dosages was studied. The highest concentration of active ingredient studied for each fungicide was equivalent to that recommended for the control of the early blight, under field conditions: 0.75; 1.80 and 1.44 g, respectively, of iprodione, chlorothalonil and anilazine per litre of water. A series of two-fold diluitions of each original concentration was studied in additional nine experiments. Eah of the three fungicides showed total in vitro spore inhibition at the highest rate, at six hours of incubation. At nine hours, only analazine mantained its full inhibition activity. The inhibition activity of iprodione decreased suddenly after 1/2 dilution, so that at the 1/8 dilution a total loss of inhibitory activity was observed. Chlorothalonil showed a progressive and slighter decrease of its activity as the dilution rate increased.Analizine showed a high inhibitory activity at higher dilutions, without any loss up to 1/128 dilution. Even at 1/512 dilution, its activity was so high that only 20% of spore germination was observed at six or nine hours of incubation.

Structural study of a series of synthetic goethites obtained in aqueous solutions containing cadmium(II) ions

The capacity of goethite for Cd-II substitution has been explored in a series of synthetic samples prepared from Fe-III and Cd-II nitrate solutions aged 21 days in alkaline media. The total metal content ([ Fe] + [ Cd]) was 0.071 M in all preparations. The samples have been characterized by chemical and X-ray diffraction analysis; the morphology of the solids is described. The cell parameters for all samples were obtained by the Rietveld fits to the X-ray diffraction data. Refined structures show that for samples prepared at the final molar ratio mu(Cd)less than or equal to5.50 (expressed as mu(Cd) = 100X[Cd]/[Cd] + [Fe]), a (Cd, Fe)-goethite is the only crystalline product. In these samples, the unit cell parameters increased as a function of Cd concentration, indicating Cd incorporation in the structural frame. At the preparative ratio, mu(Cd)=7.03, the incorporation of Cd in the goethite structure is drastically reduced and a probable Cd-substituted hematite is formed together with the Fe,Cd-goethite. (C) 2003 International Centre for Diffraction Data.

Conformational analyses and docking studies of a series of 5-nitrofuran- and 5-nitrothiophen-semicarbazone derivatives in three possible binding sites of trypanothione and glutathione reductases

To explore three possible binding sites of trypanothione and glutathione reductase, namely, the active, the dimer interface and the coenzyme NADPH binding site, a series of eight compounds, nitrofurans and nitrothiophenes derivatives, were docked, using their crystallographic and modeled conformations. Docking results showed that, for both families and both enzymes, compounds are more likely to bind in the interface site, even though there is some probability of binding in the active site. These studies are in agreement with experimental data, which suggest that these class of compounds can act either as uncompetitive or mixed type inhibitors, and also with the finding that there is an alpha-helix which connects the active with the interface site, thus allowing charge transference between them. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of FIA systems for on-line dilution in multielement determination by ICP-MS

A flow-injection (FI) system to match concentrations was used as an auto-diluter in multielement determination by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The flow system comprised loop-based injection or a timed valve that introduced a variable sample volume info a spray chamber through a standard Meinhard nebulizer of an ICP-MS. Routinely analyzed samples such as water, plant, and steel were selected. The accuracy of multielement determination was checked against water standard reference material from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (1643d), plant standard reference material from the National Bureau of Standards (1572 citrus leaves), and steel standard reference material from the National Bureau of Standards (AISI 4340). The measuring system was calibrated with a multielement solution, yielding a linear plot with good precision [relative standard deviation (RSD) < 3%, n = 12]. The results were in agreement at a 95% confidence level with the certified values for the reference materials and also with those obtained by continuous aspiration and by (FI) with a discrete volume. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Determination of trace elements in serum samples by isotope dilution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry using on-line dialysis

An on-line dialysis flow system coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry to determine trace elements in serum samples by isotope dilution is presented. Isotope dilution was performed on samples incubated with enriched Cu-65, Zn-66, Se-77 and Pb-206 for 24 h at 36degreesC prior to dialysis to quantified total element concentrations. The sample and acceptor solutions flowed through the dialysis unit with cellophane membrane placed in between the compartments. The serum sample (1 mL) was left to recycle in a closed path while the acceptor solution was continuously pumped along the dialyzer channel and through a cationic AG50W X-8 resin column. After 10 min, around 70% of Na, K and Cl migrate from the sample. Three replicate injections of 0.1 mL were performed for the clean sample after each separation step. The on-line coupling of the dialyzer to ICP-MS allowed isotope dilution for total element determination either in the cleaned sample or by eluting the cations retained in the resin to be carried out. Results demonstrated no matrix effects from alkaline elements or spectral interference from ArNa+ on Cu-63, ArCl+ on Se-77 and (SO2+)-S-34 on Zn-66. The precision of isotope ratio measurements for Cu and Zn was around 1% and for Se and Pb was around 2.5%. The values found for the reference serum sample IMEP-17 were in good agreement with the certified values for Cu, Zn and Se.

Use of homeopathic preparations in experimental studies with healthy plants

Background. The last comprehensive review of experimental research on effects of homeopathic treatments on plants was published in 1984, and lacked formal predefined criteria to assess study quality. Since then several new studies with more advanced methods have been published.Objectives: To compile a review of the literature on basic research in homeopathy with healthy plants with particular reference to studies investigating specific effects of homeopathic remedies.Methods: The literature search included English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish publications from 1920 to April 2009, using predefined selection criteria. We included experiments with healthy whole plants, seeds, plant parts and cells. The outcomes had to be measured by established procedures and statistically evaluated. We developed a Manuscript Information Score (MIS) and included only publications which provided enough information for proper interpretation (MIS >= 5). A formallised Study Methods Evaluation Procedure (SMEP) was used to evaluate these studies, and the subgroup of studies with adequate controls to identify specific effects.Results: A total of 86 studies in 79 publications was identified, 43 studies included statistics, 29 had MIS >= 5, and 15 studies investigated the specificity of homeopathic preparations. Specific effects of decimal, centesimal and fifty millesimal potencies were found including dilution levels far beyond the Avogadro number. In consecutive series of potencies only some of the tested potencies showed effects. There were many individual studies with diverse methods and very few reproduction trials.Conclusions: Healthy plant models seem an useful approach to investigate basic research questions about the specificity of homeopathic preparations. More investigations with more advanced methods are recommended, especially in the sectors of potentisation techniques, effective potency levels and conditions for reproducibility. Systematic negative control experiments should become a routine procedure to control the stability of the experimental systems. Homeopathy (2009) 98, 228-243.

Cryoablation vs radiofrequency ablation for the treatment of renal cell carcinoma: a meta-analysis of case series studies

OBJECTIVETo determine the current status of the literature regarding the clinical efficacy and complication rates of cryoablation vs radiofrequency ablation in the treatment of small renal tumours.METHODSA review of the literature was conducted. There was no language restriction. Studies were obtained from the following sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE and LILACS.Inclusion criteria were (i) case series design with more than one case reported, (ii) use of cryoablation or radiofrequency ablation, (iii) patients with renal cell carcinoma and, (iv) outcome reported as clinical efficacy.When available, we also quantified the complication rates from each included study.Proportional meta-analysis was performed on both outcomes with a random-effects model. The 95% confidential intervals were also calculated.RESULTSThirty-one case series (20 cryoablation, 11 radiofrequency ablation) met all inclusion criteria.The pooled proportion of clinical efficacy was 89% in cryoablation therapy from a total of 457 cases. There was a statistically significant heterogeneity between these studies showing the inconsistency of clinical and methodological aspects.The pooled proportion of clinical efficacy was 90% in radiofrequency ablation therapy from a total of 426 cases. There was no statistically significant heterogeneity between these studies.There was no statistically significant difference regarding complications rate between cryoablation and radiofrequency ablation.CONCLUSIONSThis review shows that both ablation therapies have similar efficacy and complication rates.There is urgency for performing clinical trials with long-term data to establish which intervention is most suitable for the treatment of small renal masses.

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)