Im Interesse der Macht: Ungarns neues Wahlsystem

Until December 2011, Hungary had the most stable electoral system in Eastern Europe: except for an increase in the electoral threshold in 1994, no significant change had taken place since the transition from communism in 1989. On 23rd December 2011, however, Parliament passed a wholly new electoral law, which will first be used in the elections due in 2014. The purposes of this article are twofold. The first is to outline the change of electoral system that took place. The previous electoral law was, famously, one of the most complex in the world. The new law is somewhat simpler, but nevertheless retains many of the old law’s features. The second purpose is to analyse the origins and implications of the new law. Did it simply reflect the interests of those in power or did it also respond to public concerns? Can it be expected to enhance or detract from the quality of Hungarian democracy?

Prefrontal inhibition of threat processing reduces working memory interference

Bottom-up processes can interrupt ongoing cognitive processing in order to adaptively respond to emotional stimuli of high potential significance, such as those that threaten wellbeing. However it is vital that this interference can be modulated in certain contexts to focus on current tasks. Deficits in the ability to maintain the appropriate balance between cognitive and emotional demands can severely impact on day-to-day activities. This fMRI study examined this interaction between threat processing and cognition; 18 adult participants performed a visuospatial working memory (WM) task with two load conditions, in the presence and absence of anxiety induction by threat of electric shock. Threat of shock interfered with performance in the low cognitive load condition; however interference was eradicated under high load, consistent with engagement of emotion regulation mechanisms. Under low load the amygdala showed significant activation to threat of shock that was modulated by high cognitive load. A directed top-down control contrast identified two regions associated with top-down control; ventrolateral PFC and dorsal ACC. Dynamic causal modeling provided further evidence that under high cognitive load, top-down inhibition is exerted on the amygdala and its outputs to prefrontal regions. Additionally, we hypothesized that individual differences in a separate, non-emotional top-down control task would predict the recruitment of dorsal ACC and ventrolateral PFC during top-down control of threat. Consistent with this, performance on a separate dichotic listening task predicted dorsal ACC and ventrolateral PFC activation during high WM load under threat of shock, though activation in these regions did not directly correlate with WM performance. Together, the findings suggest that under high cognitive load and threat, top-down control is exerted by dACC and vlPFC to inhibit threat processing, thus enabling WM performance without threat-related interference.

Diminished neural processing of aversive and rewarding stimuli during selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment

Background Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are popular medications for anxiety and depression, but their effectiveness, particularly in patients with prominent symptoms of loss of motivation and pleasure, has been questioned. There are few studies of the effect of SSRIs on neural reward mechanisms in humans. Methods We studied 45 healthy participants who were randomly allocated to receive the SSRI citalopram, the noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor reboxetine, or placebo for 7 days in a double-blind, parallel group design. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure the neural response to rewarding (sight and/or flavor of chocolate) and aversive stimuli (sight of moldy strawberries and/or an unpleasant strawberry taste) on the final day of drug treatment. Results Citalopram reduced activation to the chocolate stimuli in the ventral striatum and the ventral medial/orbitofrontal cortex. In contrast, reboxetine did not suppress ventral striatal activity and in fact increased neural responses within medial orbitofrontal cortex to reward. Citalopram also decreased neural responses to the aversive stimuli conditions in key “punishment” areas such as the lateral orbitofrontal cortex. Reboxetine produced a similar, although weaker effect. Conclusions Our findings are the first to show that treatment with SSRIs can diminish the neural processing of both rewarding and aversive stimuli. The ability of SSRIs to decrease neural responses to reward might underlie the questioned efficacy of SSRIs in depressive conditions characterized by decreased motivation and anhedonia and could also account for the experience of emotional blunting described by some patients during SSRI treatment.

Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs

We consider the forecasting of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions, using Bayesian vintage-based vector autoregressions. The prior incorporates the belief that, after the first few data releases, subsequent ones are likely to consist of revisions that are largely unpredictable. The Bayesian approach allows the joint modelling of the data revisions of more than one variable, while keeping the concomitant increase in parameter estimation uncertainty manageable. Our model provides markedly more accurate forecasts of post-revision values of inflation than do other models in the literature.

Integrin-linked kinase regulates the rate of platelet activation and is essential for the formation of stable thrombi

BACKGROUND: Integrin-linked kinase (ILK) and its associated complex of proteins are involved in many cellular activation processes, including cell adhesion and integrin signaling. We have previously demonstrated that mice with induced platelet ILK deficiency show reduced platelet activation and aggregation, but only a minor bleeding defect. Here, we explore this apparent disparity between the cellular and hemostatic phenotypes. METHODS: The impact of ILK inhibition on integrin αII b β3 activation and degranulation was assessed with the ILK-specific inhibitor QLT0267, and a conditional ILK-deficient mouse model was used to assess the impact of ILK deficiency on in vivo platelet aggregation and thrombus formation. RESULTS: Inhibition of ILK reduced the rate of both fibrinogen binding and α-granule secretion, but was accompanied by only a moderate reduction in the maximum extent of platelet activation or aggregation in vitro. The reduction in the rate of fibrinogen binding occurred prior to degranulation or translocation of αII b β3 to the platelet surface. The change in the rate of platelet activation in the absence of functional ILK led to a reduction in platelet aggregation in vivo, but did not change the size of thrombi formed following laser injury of the cremaster arteriole wall in ILK-deficient mice. It did, however, result in a marked decrease in the stability of thrombi formed in ILK-deficient mice. CONCLUSION: Taken together, the findings of this study indicate that, although ILK is not essential for platelet activation, it plays a critical role in facilitating rapid platelet activation, which is essential for stable thrombus formation.

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr−1. The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.

Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors

This paper proposes and tests a new framework for weighting recursive out-of-sample prediction errors according to their corresponding levels of in-sample estimation uncertainty. In essence, we show how to use the maximum possible amount of information from the sample in the evaluation of the prediction accuracy, by commencing the forecasts at the earliest opportunity and weighting the prediction errors. Via a Monte Carlo study, we demonstrate that the proposed framework selects the correct model from a set of candidate models considerably more often than the existing standard approach when only a small sample is available. We also show that the proposed weighting approaches result in tests of equal predictive accuracy that have much better sizes than the standard approach. An application to an exchange rate dataset highlights relevant differences in the results of tests of predictive accuracy based on the standard approach versus the framework proposed in this paper.

Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): development and evaluation at two UK sites

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is evaluated at two locations in the UK: a dense urban site in the centre of London and a residential suburban site in Swindon. Eddy covariance observations of the turbulent fluxes are used to assess model performance over a twoyear period (2011-2013). The distinct characteristics of the sites mean their surface energy exchanges differ considerably. The model suggests the largest differences can be attributed to surface cover (notably the proportion of vegetated versus impervious area) and the additional energy supplied by human activities. SUEWS performs better in summer than winter, and better at the suburban site than the dense urban site. One reason for this is the bias towards suburban summer field campaigns in observational data used to parameterise this (and other) model(s). The suitability of model parameters (such as albedo, energy use and water use) for the UK sites is considered and, where appropriate, alternative values are suggested. An alternative parameterisation for the surface conductance is implemented, which permits greater soil moisture deficits before evaporation is restricted at non-irrigated sites. Accounting for seasonal variation in the estimation of storage heat flux is necessary to obtain realistic wintertime fluxes.

Histological Outcomes on the Development of New Space-making Devices for Maxillary Sinus Floor Augmentation

Background: Previous studies have pointed out that the mere elevation of the maxillary sinus membrane promotes bone formation without the use of augmentation materials. Purpose: This experimental study aimed at evaluating if the two-stage procedure for sinus floor augmentation could benefit from the use of a space-making device in order to increase the bone volume to enable later implant installation with good primary stability. Materials and Methods: Six male tufted capuchin primates (Cebus apella) were subjected to extraction of the three premolars and the first molar on both sides of the maxilla to create an edentulous area. The sinuses were opened using the lateral bone-wall window technique, and the membrane was elevated. One resorbable space-making device was inserted in each maxillary sinus, and the bone window was returned in place. The animals were euthanatized after 6 months, and biopsy blocks containing the whole maxillary sinus and surrounding soft tissues were prepared for ground sections. Results: The histological examination of the specimens showed bone formation in contact with both the schneiderian membrane and the device in most cases even when the device was displaced. The process of bone formation indicates that this technique is potentially useful for two-stage sinus floor augmentation. The lack of stabilization of the device within the sinus demands further improvement of space-makers for predictable bone augmentation. Conclusions: It is concluded that (1) the device used in this study did not trigger any important inflammatory reaction; (2) when the sinus membrane was elevated, bone formation was a constant finding; and (3) an ideal space-making device should be stable and elevate the membrane to ensure a maintained connection between the membrane and the secluded space.

Nox2 B-loop peptide, Nox2ds, specifically inhibits the NADPH oxidase Nox2

In recent years, reactive oxygen species (ROS) derived from the vascular isoforms of NADPH oxidase, Nox1, Nox2, and Nox4, have been implicated in many cardiovascular pathologies. As a result, the selective inhibition of these isoforms is an area of intense current investigation. In this study, we postulated that Nox2ds, a peptidic inhibitor that mimics a sequence in the cytosolic B-loop of Nox2, would inhibit ROS production by the Nox2-. but not the Noxl- and Nox4-oxidase systems. To test our hypothesis, the inhibitory activity of Nox2ds was assessed in cell-free assays using reconstituted systems expressing the Nox2-, canonical or hybrid Nox1- or Nox4-oxidase. Our findings demonstrate that Nox2ds, but not its scrambled control, potently inhibited superoxide (O(2)(center dot-)) production in the Nox2 cell-free system, as assessed by the cytochrome c assay. Electron paramagnetic resonance confirmed that Nox2ds inhibits O(2)(center dot-) production by Nox2 oxidase. In contrast, Nox2ds did not inhibit ROS production by either Nox1- or Nox4-oxidase. These findings demonstrate that Nox2ds is a selective inhibitor of Nox2-oxidase and support its utility to elucidate the role of Nox2 in organ pathophysiology and its potential as a therapeutic agent. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Firm relocation and firm profits : Evidence from the Swedish wholesale trade sector

This study analyses the effects of firm relocation on firm profits, using longitudinal data on Swedish limtied liability firms and employing a difference-in-differnce propensity score method in the empirical analysis. Using propensity score matching, the pre-relocalization differneces between relocating and non-relocating firms are balanced. In addition to that, a difference-in-difference estimator is employed in order to control for all time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity among firms. For matching, nearest neighbour matching, using the one-, two- and three nearest neighbours is employed. The balanacing results indicate that matching achieves a good balance, and that similar relocating and non-relocating firms are being compared. The estimated average treatment on the treatment effects indicate thats relocations has a significant effect on the profits of the relocating firms. In other words, firms taht relocate increase their profits significantly, in comparison to what the profits would be had the firms not relocated. This effect is estimated to vary between 3 to 11 percentage points, depending on the lenght of the analysed period after relocation. 

Determinants and effects of central bank independence reforms

This thesis consists of four empirically oriented papers on central bank independence (CBI) reforms.    Paper [1] is an investigation of why politicians around the world have chosen to give up power to independent central banks, thereby reducing their ability to control the economy. A new data-set, including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during 1980-2005, was collected. Politicians in non-OECD countries were more likely to delegate power to independent central banks if their country had been characterized by high variability in inflation and if they faced a high probability of being replaced. No such effects were found for OECD countries.    Paper [2], using a difference-in-difference approach, studies whether CBI reform matters for inflation performance. The analysis is based on a dataset including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during the period of 1980-2005. CBI reform is found to have contributed to bringing down inflation in high-inflation countries, but it seems unrelated to inflation performance in low-inflation countries.    Paper [3] investigates whether CBI-reforms are important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability, using a random-effects random-coefficients model to account for heterogeneity in the effects of CBI-reforms on inflation. CBI-reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average by 3.31 percent, but the effect is only present when countries with historically high inflation rates are included in the sample. Countries with more modest inflation rates have achieved low inflation without institutional reforms that grant central banks more independence, thus undermining the time-inconsistency theory case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI-reforms have contributed to lower inflation variability    Paper [4] studies the relationship between CBI and a suggested trade-off between price variability and output variability using data on CBI-levels, and data the on implementation dates of CBI-reforms. The results question the existence of such a trade-off, but indicate that there may still be potential gains in stabilization policy from CBI-reforms.

”När man kollar på bilden tänker man så här” : en receptionsstudie av gymnasieelevers uppfattning om bilder som kunskapskällor i historieundervisningen

Images are used in history education for a variety of reasons, not least to generate interest through a better understanding of historical events and people. The aim of this study was to investigate how historical pictures, either illustrated or documentary/photographic, can be used as a resource for activating and improving pupils' historical empathy, in the way described by Stéphane Lévasque. I conducted a reception study on five different focus groups consisting of pupils from different upper secondary schools in Sweden. The pupils varied with regard to number of credits for admission to upper secondary school. A sixth group of pupils was interviewed as a contrasting control group in order to add perspective to the results. The discussions were based on the pupils' interpretations of 34 selected pictures, all of which were taken from the most common history textbooks. Each pupil was asked to choose the picture he/she felt was the most representative historical image. On the basis of the strategies used by the pupils when interpreting the pictures and discussing them, the material was analysed in accordance with Lévesque's categories: imagination, historical contextualisation and morals. The last category, morals, was further divided into three sub-categories: sense of justice, sympathy and progression. The reflections of the pupils and the degree of contextualisation varied. It appeared that the pupils were less inclined to discuss assumptions about the persons in the pictures; instead they chose to discuss the historical context in question. The pictures in this study did not seem to trigger the pupils to fabricate anachronistic reasoning about history; when they did produce lengthy reasoning, it was contextual, structural and metahistorical. In this context, the pupils who belonged to the group with the highest average of credits showed some signs of reflection on the basis of historical context and some criticism about the historical sources. On no occasion did any of the pupils choose a picture as a concrete expression of injustice. One of the questions this study aimed to explore was whether a lack of historical context affects how pictures trigger emotions and reasoning on the basis of moral aspects. Some of the pupils displayed moral standpoints, primarily the degree of morals concerning injustice. One possible interpretation could be that the feeling of being unfairly treated and subjected to insulting behaviour and social injustice was something the pupils could relate to. The group of pupils who had not yet studied history at upper secondary school, the control group, generally made reflections using this sort of reasoning when they discussed the historical aspects of the pictures.

Monitoring vegetation on railway embankments : supporting maintenance decisions

The national railway administrations in Scandinavia, Germany, and Austria mainly resort to manual inspections to control vegetation growth along railway embankments. Manually inspecting railways is slow and time consuming. A more worrying aspect concerns the fact that human observers are often unable to estimate the true cover of vegetation on railway embankments. Further human observers often tend to disagree with each other when more than one observer is engaged for inspection. Lack of proper techniques to identify the true cover of vegetation even result in the excess usage of herbicides; seriously harming the environment and threating the ecology. Hence work in this study has investigated aspects relevant to human variationand agreement to be able to report better inspection routines. This was studied by mainly carrying out two separate yet relevant investigations.First, thirteen observers were separately asked to estimate the vegetation cover in nine imagesacquired (in nadir view) over the railway tracks. All such estimates were compared relatively and an analysis of variance resulted in a significant difference on the observers’ cover estimates (p<0.05). Bearing in difference between the observers, a second follow-up field-study on the railway tracks was initiated and properly investigated. Two railway segments (strata) representingdifferent levels of vegetationwere carefully selected. Five sample plots (each covering an area of one-by-one meter) were randomizedfrom each stratumalong the rails from the aforementioned segments and ten images were acquired in nadir view. Further three observers (with knowledge in the railway maintenance domain) were separately asked to estimate the plant cover by visually examining theplots. Again an analysis of variance resulted in a significant difference on the observers’ cover estimates (p<0.05) confirming the result from the first investigation.The differences in observations are compared against a computer vision algorithm which detects the "true" cover of vegetation in a given image. The true cover is defined as the amount of greenish pixels in each image as detected by the computer vision algorithm. Results achieved through comparison strongly indicate that inconsistency is prevalent among the estimates reported by the observers. Hence, an automated approach reporting the use of computer vision is suggested, thus transferring the manual inspections into objective monitored inspections

Fatores associados ao controle metabólico em pacientes com diabetes melito tipo 2 não usuários de insulina

Introdução: a obtenção de um bom controle metabólico é essencial para a prevenção das complicações crônicas do Diabetes Melito (DM). O tratamento é complexo e depende da implementação efetiva das diferentes estratégias terapêuticas disponíveis. Para que isso seja possível, é necessário que o paciente entenda os princípios terapêuticos e consiga executá-los. A precária educação em diabetes é percebida como um dos obstáculos para o alcance das metas terapêuticas. Objetivo: analisar, os fatores associados ao controle metabólico, em pacientes com DM tipo 2 (DM2) não usuários de insulina. Métodos: foi realizado um estudo transversal em pacientes com DM2 não usuários de insulina, selecionados ao acaso entre aqueles que consultavam nos ambulatórios de Medicina Interna, Endocrinologia e Enfermagem do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre. Os pacientes foram submetidos à avaliação clínica, laboratorial e responderam um questionário que incluía o tipo de tratamento realizado para DM, outros medicamentos e co-morbidades, pesquisa de complicações em ano prévio e avaliação do conhecimento sobre DM. Os pacientes foram classificados em dois grupos, com bom ou mau controle glicêmico, de acordo com o valor da glico-hemoglobina de 1 ponto % acima do limite superior do método utilizado. As comparações entre variáveis contínuas, com distribuição normal, foram analisadas pelo teste t de Student para amostras não-pareadas e para as variáveis de distribuição assimétrica ou com variância heterogênea o teste U de Mann-Whitney. A comparação entre percentagem foi feita pelo teste de qui-quadrado ou exato de Fisher. Foi realizada uma análise logística múltipla para identificar os fatores mais relevantes associados ao controle metabólico (variável dependente). As variáveis independentes com um nível de significância de P < 0,1 na análise bivariada, foram incluídas no modelo. Resultados: foram avaliados 143 pacientes com DM2, idade de 59,3 ± 10,1 anos, duração conhecida do DM 7,5 ± 6,3 anos, índice de massa corporal (IMC) de 29,7 ± 5,2 kg/m².Destes, 94 pacientes (65,73%) apresentavam bom controle glicêmico. Os pacientes com mau controle glicêmico usavam mais anti-hiperglicemiantes orais como monoterapia (OR = 9,37; IC = 2,60-33,81; P=0,004) ou associados (OR = 31,08; IC = 7,42-130,15; P < 0,001). Da mesma maneira, não fizeram dieta em dias de festa (OR = 3,29; IC = 1,51-7,16; P = 0,012). A inclusão do conhecimento sobre diabetes não foi diferente entre os pacientes com bom ou mau controle glicêmico (OR = 1,08; IC = 0,97 - 1,21; P = 0,219). A análise multivariada demonstrou que a consulta com a enfermeira educadora (OR = 0,24; IC = 0,108-0,534; P = 0,003), com o endocrinologista (OR = 0,15 ; IC = 0,063-0,373; P = 0,001) e o uso de hipolipemiantes (OR = 0,10; IC = 0,016 - 0,72; P = 0,054) foram associados ao bom controle glicêmico, ajustados para a não realização de dieta em festas, uso de anti-hiperglicemiantes orais e conhecimento sobre diabetes. Conclusão: o controle metabólico em pacientes DM2 é influenciado pelas atividades de educação com enfermeira e endocrinologista. O tratamento do DM2 deve incluir atividades de educação de forma sistemática.