Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Objectively measured physical activity behavior in children attending a half day preschool program

Obesity rates are increasing in children of all ages, and reduced physical activity (PA) is a likely contributor to this trend. Little is known about the physical activity behavior of preschool-age children, or about the influence of preschool attendance on physical activity. Purpose The purpose of this study was to quantify the physical activity levels of children attending a center-based half-day preschool program. Methods Forty-two 3-to-5-year old children (Mean age = 4.0 ± 0.7, 54.8% Male, Mean BMI = 16.5 ± 5.5, Mean BMI %tile = 52.1 ± 33.5) from four class groups (two morning and two afternoon), wore an Actigraph 7164 accelerometer for the entire halfday program (including classroom learning experiences, snack and recess time) 2 times per week, for 10 weeks (20 activity monitoring records in total). Activity counts for each 5-sec interval were uploaded to a customized data reduction program to determine total counts, minutes of moderate PA (MPA) (3–5.9 METs), and minutes of vigorous PA (VPA) (> = 6 METs) per session. Counts were categorized as either MPA or VPA using the cutpoints developed by Sirard and colleagues (2001). Results Across the four 2.5 hour programs, the average MPA, VPA and total counts (× 103) were 12.4 ± 3.1 minutes, 18.3 ± 4.6 minutes, and 171.1 ± 29.7 counts, respectively. Thus, on average, children accumulated just over 12 minutes of moderateto-vigorous PA per hour of program attendance. The PA variables did not differ significantly by gender, weight status, or time of day. There were, however, significant age differences, with 3-year-olds exhibiting significantly less PA than their 4- and 5-year-old counterparts. Conclusions These results suggest that young children are relatively lowactive while attending preschool. Accordingly, interventions to increase movement opportunities during the preschool day are warranted.

A natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin versus aqueous cream for managing radiation-induced skin reactions in patients with cancer : a phase III double-blind randomised controlled trial

Purpose To investigate the effects of a natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin versus aqueous cream for preventing and managing radiation induced skin reactions (RISR). Methods and Materials A total of 174 patients were randomised and participated in the study. Patients either received Cream 1 (the natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin) or Cream 2 (aqueous cream). Skin toxicity, pain, itching and skin-related quality of life scores were collected for up to four weeks after radiation treatment. Results Patients who received Cream 1 had a significantly lower average level of Common Toxicity Criteria at week 3 (p<0.05), but had statistically higher average levels of skin toxicity at weeks 7, 8 and 9 (all p<0.001). Similar results were observed when skin toxicity was analysed by grades. With regards to pain, patients in the Cream 2 group had a significantly higher average level of worst pain (p<0.05) and itching (p=0.046) compared to the Cream 1 group at week 3, however these differences were not observed at other weeks. In addition, there was a strong trend for Cream 2 to reduce the incidence of grade 2 or more skin toxicity in comparison to Cream 1 (p=0.056). Overall, more participants in the Cream 1 group were required to use another topical treatment at weeks 8 (p=0.049) and 9 (p=0.01). Conclusion The natural oil-based emulsion containing allantoin appears to have similar effects for managing skin toxicity compared to aqueous cream up to week 5, however, it becomes significantly less effective at later weeks into the radiation treatment and beyond treatment completion (week 6 and beyond). There were no major differences in pain, itching and skin-related quality of life. In light of these results, clinicians and patients can base their decision on costs and preferences. Overall, aqueous cream appears to be a more preferred option.

A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models.

Renormalization group interpretation of the Born and Rytov approximations

In this paper the method of renormalization group (RG) [Phys. Rev. E 54, 376 (1996)] is related to the well-known approximations of Rytov and Born used in wave propagation in deterministic and random media. Certain problems in linear and nonlinear media are examined from the viewpoint of RG and compared with the literature on Born and Rytov approximations. It is found that the Rytov approximation forms a special case of the asymptotic expansion generated by the RG, and as such it gives a superior approximation to the exact solution compared with its Born counterpart. Analogous conclusions are reached for nonlinear equations with an intensity-dependent index of refraction where the RG recovers the exact solution. © 2008 Optical Society of America.

Structure-controlled, vertical graphene-based, binder-free electrodes from plasma-reformed butter enhance supercapacitor performance

Vertical graphene nanosheets (VGNS) hold great promise for high-performance supercapacitors owing to their excellent electrical transport property, large surface area and in particular, an inherent three-dimensional, open network structure. However, it remains challenging to materialise the VGNS-based supercapacitors due to their poor specific capacitance, high temperature processing, poor binding to electrode support materials, uncontrollable microstructure, and non-cost effective way of fabrication. Here we use a single-step, fast, scalable, and environmentally-benign plasma-enabled method to fabricate VGNS using cheap and spreadable natural fatty precursor butter, and demonstrate the controllability over the degree of graphitization and the density of VGNS edge planes. Our VGNS employed as binder-free supercapacitor electrodes exhibit high specific capacitance up to 230 F g−1 at a scan rate of 10 mV s−1 and >99% capacitance retention after 1,500 charge-discharge cycles at a high current density, when the optimum combination of graphitic structure and edge plane effects is utilised. The energy storage performance can be further enhanced by forming stable hybrid MnO2/VGNS nano-architectures which synergistically combine the advantages from both VGNS and MnO2. This deterministic and plasma-unique way of fabricating VGNS may open a new avenue for producing functional nanomaterials for advanced energy storage devices.

Nanoscale control of energy and matter in plasma–surface interactions : toward energy- and matter-efficient nanotech

The approach to control the elementary processes of plasma–surface interactions to direct the fluxes of energy and matter at nano- and subnanometer scales is introduced. This ability is related to the solution of the grand challenge of directing energy and matter at nanoscales and is critical for the renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies for a sustainable future development. The examples of deterministic synthesis of self-organized arrays of metastable nanostructures in the size range beyond the reach of the present-day nanofabrication are considered to illustrate this possibility. By using precisely controlled and kinetically fast nanoscale transfer of energy and matter under nonequilibrium conditions and harnessing numerous plasma-specific controls of species creation, delivery to the surface,nucleation, and large-scale self-organization of nuclei and nanostructures, the arrays of metastable nanostructures can be created, arranged, stabilized, and further processed to meet the specific requirements of the envisaged applications.

Self-organized quantum dot arrays : kinetic mapping of adatom capture

Deterministic synthesis of self-organized quantum dot arrays for renewable energy, biomedical, and optoelectronic applications requires control over adatom capture zones, which are presently mapped using unphysical geometric tessellation. In contrast, the proposed kinetic mapping is based on simulated two-dimensional adatom fluxes in the array and includes the effects of nucleation, dissolution, coalescence, and process parameters such as surface temperature and deposition rate. This approach is generic and can be used to control the nanoarray development in various practical applications. © 2009 American Institute of Physics.

Hydrogen in plasma-nanofabrication : selective control of nanostructure heating and passivation

The possibility of independent control of the surface fluxes of energy and hydrogen-containing radicals, thus enabling selective control of the nanostructure heating and passivation, is demonstrated. In situ energy flux measurements reveal that even a small addition of H2 to low-pressure Ar plasmas leads to a dramatic increase in the energy deposition through H recombination on the surface. The heat release is quenched by a sequential addition of a hydrocarbon precursor while the surface passivation remains effective. Such selective control offers an effective mechanism for deterministic control of the growth shape, crystallinity, and density of nanostructures in plasma-aided nanofabrication. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

From nucleation to nanowires : a single-step process in reactive plasmas

This feature article introduces a deterministic approach for the rapid, single-step, direct synthesis of metal oxide nanowires. This approach is based on the exposure of thin metal samples to reactive oxygen plasmas and does not require any intervening processing or external substrate heating. The critical roles of the reactive oxygen plasmas, surface processes, and plasma-surface interactions that enable this growth are critically examined by using a deterministic viewpoint. The essentials of the experimental procedures and reactor design are presented and related to the key process requirements. The nucleation and growth kinetics is discussed for typical solid-liquid-solid and vapor-solid-solid mechanisms related to the synthesis of the oxide nanowires of metals with low (Ga, Cd) and high (Fe) melting points, respectively. Numerical simulations are focused on the possibility to predict the nanowire nucleation points through the interaction of the plasma radicals and ions with the nanoscale morphological features on the surface, as well as to control the localized 'hot spots' that in turn determine the nanowire size and shape. This generic approach can be applied to virtually any oxide nanoscale system and further confirms the applicability of the plasma nanoscience approaches for deterministic nanoscale synthesis and processing.

Single-step synthesis and magnetic separation of graphene and carbon nanotubes in arc discharge plasmas

The unique properties of graphene and carbon nanotubes made them the most promising nanomaterials attracting enormous attention, due to the prospects for applications in various nanodevices, from nanoelectronics to sensors and energy conversion devices. Here we report on a novel deterministic, single-step approach to simultaneous production and magnetic separation of graphene flakes and carbon nanotubes in an arc discharge by splitting the high-temperature growth and low-temperature separation zones using a non-uniform magnetic field and tailor-designed catalyst alloy, and depositing nanotubes and graphene in different areas. Our results are very relevant to the development of commercially-viable, single-step production of bulk amounts of high-quality graphene.

Surface science of plasma exposed surfaces : a challenge for applied plasma science

This article introduces a deterministic approach to using low-temperature, thermally non-equilibrium plasmas to synthesize delicate low-dimensional nanostructures of a small number of atoms on plasma exposed surfaces. This approach is based on a set of plasma-related strategies to control elementary surface processes, an area traditionally covered by surface science. Major issues related to balanced delivery and consumption of building units, appropriate choice of process conditions, and account of plasma-related electric fields, electric charges and polarization effects are identified and discussed in the quantum dot nanoarray context. Examples of a suitable plasma-aided nanofabrication facility and specific effects of a plasma-based environment on self-organized growth of size- and position-uniform nanodot arrays are shown. These results suggest a very positive outlook for using low-temperature plasma-based nanotools in high-precision nanofabrication of self-assembled nanostructures and elements of nanodevices, one of the areas of continuously rising demand from academia and industry.

Synthesis of functional nanoassemblies in reactive plasmas

Synthesis of various functional nanoassemblies, by using a combination of low-pressure reactive plasma-enhanced chemical deposition and plasma-assisted rf magnetron sputtering deposition is reported. This paper details how selective generation and manipulation of the required building blocks and management of unwanted nanoparticle contaminants, can be used for plasma-aided nanofabrication of carbon nanotip microemitter structures, ultra-high aspect ratio semiconductor nanowires, ordered quantum dot arrays, and microporous hydroxyapatite bioceramics. Emerging challenges of the plasma-aided synthesis of functional nanofilms and nanoassemblies are also discussed.

The path to stoichiometric composition of III–V binary quantum dots through plasma/ion-assisted self-assembly

Semiconductor III-V quantum dots (QDs) are particularly enticing components for the integration of optically promising III-V materials with the silicon technology prevalent in the microelectronics industry. However, defects due to deviations from a stoichiometric composition [group III: group V = 1] may lead to impaired device performance. This paper investigates the initial stages of formation of InSb and GaAs QDs on Si(1 0 0) through hybrid numerical simulations. Three situations are considered: a neutral gas environment (NG), and two ionized gas environments, namely a localized ion source (LIS) and a background plasma (BP) case. It is shown that when the growth is conducted in an ionized gas environment, a stoichiometric composition may be obtained earlier in the QD as compared to a NG. Moreover, the stoichiometrization time, tst, is shorter for the BP case compared to the LIS scenario. A discussion of the effect of ion/plasma-based tools as well as a range of process conditions on the final island size distribution is also included. Our results suggest a way to obtain a deterministic level of control over nanostructure properties (in particular, elemental composition and size) during the initial stages of growth which is a crucial step towards achieving highly tailored QDs suitable for implementation in advanced technological devices.

Effect of elemental composition and size on electron confinement in self-assembled SiC quantum dots : a combinatorial approach

A high level of control over quantum dot (QD) properties such as size and composition during fabrication is required to precisely tune the eventual electronic properties of the QD. Nanoscale synthesis efforts and theoretical studies of electronic properties are traditionally treated quite separately. In this paper, a combinatorial approach has been taken to relate the process synthesis parameters and the electron confinement properties of the QDs. First, hybrid numerical calculations with different influx parameters for Si1-x Cx QDs were carried out to simulate the changes in carbon content x and size. Second, the ionization energy theory was applied to understand the electronic properties of Si1-x Cx QDs. Third, stoichiometric (x=0.5) silicon carbide QDs were grown by means of inductively coupled plasma-assisted rf magnetron sputtering. Finally, the effect of QD size and elemental composition were then incorporated in the ionization energy theory to explain the evolution of the Si1-x Cx photoluminescence spectra. These results are important for the development of deterministic synthesis approaches of self-assembled nanoscale quantum confinement structures.