New records, distribution and status of six seabird species in Brazil

Distribution records of poorly-known species are currently the most explored theme in the Brazilian seabird literature. If properly evaluated, this kind of information can improve our knowledge on distribution, migration and status of occurrence of these species. In this note we present new records for six species of poorly-known seabirds in the Brazilian coast, reviewing distribution records and defining their status of occurrence in the country. We consider Chionis albus (Gmelin, 1789) a pseudo-vagrant in Brazil and define its status as a scarce seasonal visitor from southern South America. We present the first records of Leucophaeus atricilla (Linnaeus, 1758) for Trindade Island, and of Leucophaeus pipixcan (Wagler, 1831) for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, and determined that the former is a vagrant in eastern Brazil and the latter a vagrant across the country. Anous stolidus (Linnaeus, 1758) is a vagrant in southernmost Brazil. We were unable to determine if records of Chlidonias niger (Linnaeus, 1758) for Brazil and southern South America refer to vagrancy or pseudo-vagrancy. Additionally, we verified the occurrence of breeding individuals of Anous minutus Boie, 1844 on Martin Vaz Island and confirmed that there is no evidence of breeding on neighboring Trindade Island.

The Impact of prevention measures and organisational factors on occupational injuries

This paper analyses the impact of a series of managerial and organisational factors on occupational injuries. These consist of occupational safety measures, as regards both the intensity and the orientation of risk prevention in companies, and the adoption of certain work organisation practices, quality management and the use of flexible production technologies. We estimate a negative binomial regression based on a sample of 213 Spanish industrial establishments, defining a constant random parameter to take account of non-observable heterogeneity. Our results show that occupational safety measures, the intensive use of quality management tools and the empowerment of workers all help to reduce the number of injuries. We have also confirmed the presence of synergies between the organisational factors analysed and the development of an occupational safety strategy featuring participation and the extension of prevention to all levels of the organisation.

An analysis of strategic paths through the decomposition of total factor productivity: the case of Spanish savings banks

The Spanish savings banks attracted quite a considerable amount of interest within the scientific arena, especially subsequent to the disappearance of the regulatory constraints during the second decade of the 1980s. Nonetheless, a lack of research identified with respect to mainstream paths given by strategic groups, and the analysis of the total factor productivity. Therefore, on the basis of the resource-based view of the firm and cluster analysis, we make use of changes in structure and performance ratios in order to identify the strategic groups extant in the sector. We attain a threeways division, which we link with different input-output specifications defining strategic paths. Consequently, on the basis of these three dissimilar approaches we compute and decompose a Hicks-Moorsteen total factor productivity index. Obtained results put forward an interesting interpretation under a multi-strategic approach, together with the setbacks of employing cluster analysis within a complex strategic environment. Moreover, we also propose an ex-post method of analysing the outcomes of the decomposed total factor productivity index that could be merged with non-traditional techniques of forming strategic groups, such as cognitive approaches.

Why did London become the main money market? Monetary Policy, Arbitrage and European Money Market Integration in 18th century

How did the leading capital market start to attract international bullion? Why did London become the main money market? Monetary regulations, including the charges for minting money and the restrictions on bullion exchange, have played the key role in defining the direction of the flow of international bullion. Countries that abolished minting charges and permitted the free movement of bullion were able to attract international bullion, and countries that applied minting taxes suffered an outflow of bullion. In these cases monetary authorities tried to limit bullion movement through prohibitions on domestic bullion exchange at a free price, and tariffs and quantitative restrictions on bullion exports. The paper illustrates the logic of international monetary flow in the 18th century, using empirical evidence for England, France and Spain. The first section defines and measures monetary policy, and the second section introduces minting charges into the arbitrage equation in order to explain the logic of bullion flow between the pairs of nations England-France, England-Spain and France-Spain. The conclusion emphasises the importance of monetary policy in the creation of leading money markets.

Octopus Standard Automated Perimetry, Pulsar Perimetry, Moorfields Motion Displacement Test and Heidelberg Retinal Tomography in Glaucoma Detection - A Comparison of Diagnostic Accuracy

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy of 4 clinical instruments in the detection of glaucomatous damage. Methods: 102 eyes of 55 test subjects (Age mean = 66.5yrs, range = [39; 89]) underwent Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRTIII), (disc area<2.43); and standard automated perimetry (SAP) using Octopus (Dynamic); Pulsar (TOP); and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) (ESTA strategy). Eyes were separated into three groups 1) Healthy (H): IOP<21mmHg and healthy discs (clinical examination), 39 subjects, 78 eyes; 2) Glaucoma suspect (GS): Suspicious discs (clinical examination), 12 subjects, 15 eyes; 3) Glaucoma (G): progressive structural or functional loss, 14 subjects, 20 eyes. Clinical diagnostic precision was examined using the cut-off associated with the p<5% normative limit of MD (Octopus/Pulsar), PTD (MDT) and MRA (HRT) analysis. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were calculated for each instrument. Results: See table Conclusions: Despite the advantage of defining glaucoma suspects using clinical optic disc examination, the HRT did not yield significantly higher accuracy than functional measures. HRT, MDT and Octopus SAP yielded higher accuracy than Pulsar perimetry, although results did not reach statistical significance. Further studies are required to investigate the structure-function correlations between these instruments.

A general construction of internal sheaves in algebraic set theory

We present a solution to the problem of defining a counterpart in Algebraic Set Theory of the construction of internal sheaves in Topos Theory. Our approach is general in that we consider sheaves as determined by Lawvere-Tierney coverages, rather than by Grothen-dieck coverages, and assume only a weakening of the axioms for small maps originally introduced by Joyal and Moerdijk, thus subsuming the existing topos-theoretic results.

Morbidity and aging in HIV-infected persons: the Swiss HIV cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patterns of morbidity and mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals taking antiretroviral therapy are changing as a result of immune reconstitution and improved survival. We studied the influence of aging on the epidemiology of non-AIDS diseases in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study is a prospective observational cohort established in 1988 with continuous enrollment. We determined the incidence of clinical events (per 1000 person-years) from January 2008 (when a new questionnaire on non-AIDS-related morbidity was introduced) through December 2010. Differences across age groups were analyzed using Cox regression, adjusted for CD4 cell count, viral load, sex, injection drug use, smoking, and years of HIV infection. RESULTS: Overall, 8444 (96%) of 8848 participants contributed data from 40,720 semiannual visits; 2233 individuals (26.4%) were aged 50-64 years, and 450 (5.3%) were aged ≥65 years. The median duration of HIV infection was 15.4 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.59-22.0 years); 23.2% had prior clinical AIDS. We observed 994 incident non-AIDS events in the reference period: 201 cases of bacterial pneumonia, 55 myocardial infarctions, 39 strokes, 70 cases of diabetes mellitus, 123 trauma-associated fractures, 37 fractures without adequate trauma, and 115 non-AIDS malignancies. Multivariable hazard ratios for stroke (17.7; CI, 7.06-44.5), myocardial infarction (5.89; 95% CI, 2.17-16.0), diabetes mellitus (3.75; 95% CI, 1.80-7.85), bone fractures without adequate trauma (10.5; 95% CI, 3.58-30.5), osteoporosis (9.13; 95% CI, 4.10-20.3), and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (6.88; 95% CI, 3.89-12.2) were elevated for persons aged ≥65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidity and multimorbidity because of non-AIDS diseases, particularly diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, non-AIDS-defining malignancies, and osteoporosis, become more important in care of HIV-infected persons and increase with older age.

L'ordenació dels espais de sòl no urbanitzable periurbà al Vallès Occidental: marc normatiu, planificació i experiències pràctiques

Els espais periurbans juguen un paper important en la configuració del territori i del medi ambient, ja que contenen valors i acullen funcions diverses (ecològiques i ambientals, socials i lúdiques, productives etc.). Si bé és cert que a la comarca del Vallès Occidental aquests espais són –també- producte de la relació amb un context geogràfic molt humanitzat, també ho és que actualment i en aquest context, es donen circumstàncies d’amenaça a l’equilibri que fou origen dels valors i funcions esmentats (tendències urbanitzadores i metropolització). Aquest escenari de complexitat demana una òptima ordenació del territori que garanteixi la preservació dels valors i funcions anomenats. El marc i les eines dels quals la societat s’ha dotat per a fer-ho les aporta el planejament del territori, la legislació sectorial etc. Tot i que aquest marc presenta oportunitats per a l'ordenació d’espais de sòl no urbanitzable periurbà, a la realitat pràctica s’observen pocs resultats d’aquesta favorable avinentesa. Aquesta és la paradoxa principal que planteja l’estudi de la temàtica escollida.

Le Q-sort, un outil pour la recherche en soins le cas des représentations chez les infirmiers en psychiatrie de l'âge avancé [Q-sort, a useful research method in care in cases of psychiatric nursing of the aged]

Q-sort is a research method which allows defining profiles of attitudes toward a set of statements, ordered in relation to each other. Pertaining to the Q Methodology, the qualitative analysis of the Q-sorts is based on quantitative techniques. This method is of particular interest for research in health professions, a field in which attitudes of patients and professionals are very important. The method is presented in this article, along with an example of application in nursing in old age psychiatry.

The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

Individual versus group strategy-proofness: when do they coincide?

A social choice function is group strategy-proof on a domain if no group of agents can manipulate its final outcome to their own benefit by declaring false preferences on that domain. Group strategy-proofness is a very attractive requirement of incentive compatibility. But in many cases it is hard or impossible to find nontrivial social choice functions satisfying even the weakest condition of individual strategy-proofness. However, there are a number of economically significant domains where interesting rules satisfying individual strategy-proofness can be defined, and for some of them, all these rules turn out to also satisfy the stronger requirement of group strategy-proofness. This is the case, for example, when preferences are single-peaked or single-dipped. In other cases, this equivalence does not hold. We provide sufficient conditions defining domains of preferences guaranteeing that individual and group strategy-proofness are equivalent for all rules defined on the

Arch and Structural Breaks in United States Inflation

United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.

A multi-purpose grammar generating a multi-scale integrated analysis of Laos

In this study we propose an application of the MuSIASEM approach which is used to provide an integrated analysis of Laos across different scales. With the term “integrated analysis across scales” we mean the generation of a series of packages of quantitative indicators, characterizing the performance of the socioeconomic activities performed in Laos when considering: (i) different hierarchical levels of organization (farming systems described at the level of household, rural villages, regions of Laos, the whole country level); and (ii) different dimensions of analysis (economic dimension, social dimension, ecological dimension, technical dimension). What is relevant in this application is that the information carried out by these different packages of indicators is integrated in a system of accounting which establishes interlinkages across these indicators. This is a essential feature to study sustainability trade-offs and to build more robust scenarios of possible changes. The multi-scale integrated representation presented in this study is based on secondary data (gathered in a three year EU project – SEAtrans and integrated by other available statistical sources) and it is integrated in GIS, when dealing with the spatial representation of Laos. However, even if we use data referring to Laos, the goal of this study is not that of providing useful information about a practical policy issue of Laos, but rather, to illustrate the possibility of using a multipurpose grammar to produce an integrated set of sustainability indicators at three different levels: (i) local; (ii) meso; (iii) macro level. The technical issue addressed is the simultaneous adoption of two multi-level matrices – one referring to a characterization of human activity over a set of different categories, and another referring to a characterization of land uses over the same set of categories. In this way, it becomes possible to explain the characteristics of Laos (an integrated set of indicators defining the performance of the whole country) in relation to the characteristics of the rural Laos and urban Laos. The characteristics of rural Laos, can be explained using the characteristics of three regions defined within Laos (Northern Laos, Central Laos and Southern Laos), which in turn can be defined (using an analogous package of indicators), starting from the characteristics of three main typologies of farming systems found in the regions.