Decision making techniques with similarity measures and OWA operators

We analyse the use of the ordered weighted average (OWA) in decision-making giving special attention to business and economic decision-making problems. We present several aggregation techniques that are very useful for decision-making such as the Hamming distance, the adequacy coefficient and the index of maximum and minimum level. We suggest a new approach by using immediate weights, that is, by using the weighted average and the OWA operator in the same formulation. We further generalize them by using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. We also analyse the applicability of the OWA operator in business and economics and we see that we can use it instead of the weighted average. We end the paper with an application in a business multi-person decision-making problem regarding production management

An Adaptive Remeshing Procedure for Proximity Maneuvering Spacecraft Formations

We consider a methodology to optimally obtain reconfigurations of spacecraft formations. It is based on the discretization of the time interval in subintervals (called the mesh) and the obtainment of local solutions on them as a result of a variational method. Applied to a libration point orbit scenario, in this work we focus on how to find optimal meshes using an adaptive remeshing procedure and on the determination of the parameter that governs it

Decision making: singin' in the brain.

Which neurons in the brain "decide" to initiate particular behaviors in response to sensory information? In this issue of Neuron, two papers (Kohatsu et al. and von Philipsborn et al.) identify candidates in the courtship circuitry of Drosophila. The activity of these neurons is both regulated by sex pheromones and necessary and sufficient to trigger male love song.

Speed-cohesion trade-offs in collective decision making in ants and the concept of precision in animal behaviour

In decision making, speed-accuracy trade-offs are well known and often inevitable because accuracy depends on being well informed and gathering information takes time. However, trade-offs between speed and cohesion, that is the degree to which a group remains together as a single entity, as a result of their decision making, have been comparatively neglected. We combine theory and experimentation to show that in decision-making systems, speed-cohesion trade-offs are a natural complement to speed-accuracy trade-offs and are therefore of general importance. We then analyse the decision performance of 32 rock ant, Temnothorax albipennis, colonies in experiments in which accuracy of collective decision making was held constant, but time urgency varied. These experiments reveal for the first time an adaptive speed-cohesion trade-off in collective decision making and how this is achieved. In accord with different time constraints, colonies can decide quickly, at the cost of social unity, or they can decide slowly with much greater cohesion. We discuss the similarity between cohesion and the term precision as used in statistics and engineering. This emphasizes the generality of speed versus cohesion/precision trade-offs in decision making and decision implementation in other fields within animal behaviour such as sexually selected motor displays and even certain aspects of birdsong. We also suggest that speed versus precision trade-offs may occur when individuals within a group need to synchronize their activity, and in collective navigation, cooperative hunting and in certain escape behaviours.

Weber's law in decision making: integrating behavioral data in humans with a neurophysiological model

Recent single-cell studies in monkeys (Romo et al., 2004) show that the activity of neurons in the ventral premotor cortex covaries with the animal's decisions in a perceptual comparison task regarding the frequency of vibrotactile events. The firing rate response of these neurons was dependent only on the frequency differences between the two applied vibrations, the sign of that difference being the determining factor for correct task performance. We present a biophysically realistic neurodynamical model that can account for the most relevant characteristics of this decision-making-related neural activity. One of the nontrivial predictions of this model is that Weber's law will underlie the perceptual discrimination behavior. We confirmed this prediction in behavioral tests of vibrotactile discrimination in humans and propose a computational explanation of perceptual discrimination that accounts naturally for the emergence of Weber's law. We conclude that the neurodynamical mechanisms and computational principles underlying the decision-making processes in this perceptual discrimination task are consistent with a fluctuation-driven scenario in a multistable regime.

Ag Decision Maker, January 2016, Vol. 20, no. 3

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Ag Decision Maker, March 2016, Vol. 20, no. 5

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

A Multi-Project Scheduling Procedure for Transportation Projects, Final Report, HR-339, 1993

This report proposes, that for certain types of highway construction projects undertaken by the Iowa Department of Transportation, a scheduling technique commonly referred to as linear scheduling may be more effective than the Critical Path Method scheduling technique that is currently being used. The types of projects that appear to be good candidates for the technique are those projects that have a strong linear orientation. Like a bar chart, this technique shows when an activity is scheduled to occur and like a CPM schedule it shows the sequence in which activities are expected to occur. During the 1992 construction season, the authors worked with an inlay project on Interstate 29 to demonstrate the linear scheduling technique to the Construction Office. The as-planned schedule was developed from the CPM schedule that the contractor had developed for the project. Therefore, this schedule represents what a linear representation of a CPM schedule would look like, and not necessarily what a true linear schedule would look like if it had been the only scheduling technique applied to the project. There is a need to expand the current repertoire of scheduling techniques to address those projects for which the bar chart and CPM may not be appropriate either because of the lack of control information or due to overly complex process for the actual project characteristics. The scheduling approaches used today on transportation projects have many shortcomings for properly modeling the real world constraints and conditions which are encountered. Linear project's predilection for activities with variable production rates, a concept very difficult to handle with the CPM, is easily handled and visualized with the linear technique. It is recommended that work proceed with the refinement of the method of linear scheduling described above and the development of a microcomputer based system for use by the Iowa Department of Transportation and contractors for its implementation. The system will be designed to provide the information needed to adjust schedules in a rational understandable method for monitoring progress on the projects and alerting Iowa Department of Transportation personnel when the contractor is deviating from the plan.

Evaluation of the multicriteria approval method for timber-harvesting group decision support

Abstract

Decision-theoretic reflections on processing a fingermark

A recent publication in this journal [Neumann et al., Forensic Sci. Int. 212 (2011) 32-46] presented the results of a field study that revealed the data provided by the fingermarks not processed in a forensic science laboratory. In their study, the authors were interested in the usefulness of this additional data in order to determine whether such fingermarks would have been worth submitting to the fingermark processing workflow. Taking these ideas as a starting point, this communication here places the fingermark in its context of a case brought before a court, and examines the question of processing or not processing a fingermark from a decision-theoretic point of view. The decision-theoretic framework presented provides an answer to this question in the form of a quantified expression of the expected value of information (EVOI) associated with the processed fingermark, which can then be compared with the cost of processing the mark.

Ag Decision Maker, April 2016, Vol. 20, no. 6

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Bone propeller flap: a staged procedure.

The ideal reconstruction technique for complex defects of the lower limb consists of replacing tissue with similar tissue in an attempt to achieve a good functional result. A 23-year-old white male sustained a crush injury with a grade IIIB open ankle dislocation. After open reduction and fixation, the patient developed severe osteomyelitis at the tibiotalar joint requiring a staged and radical debridement with a substantial combined soft tissue and bony defect over the distal tibia, fibula, and talus area. The reconstructive approach consisted of a modified model of the propeller flap, implementing the spare part concept in a 2-stage procedure using a prefabricated and vascularized "double-barrel" fibular graft. At 17 months postoperatively, a plain radiograph showed bony union with complete and stable coverage of the soft tissue defect. The patient was fully weightbearing. In conclusion, there is evidence to suggest that the established concept of a soft tissue propeller flap can be implemented on bone.

Ag Decision Maker, May 2016, Vol. 20, no. 7

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

The timing of exploratory decision-making revealed by single-trial topographic EEGanalyses.

Decision-making in an uncertain environment is driven by two major needs: exploring the environment to gather information or exploiting acquired knowledge to maximize reward. The neural processes underlying exploratory decision-making have been mainly studied by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging, overlooking any information about the time when decisions are made. Here, we carried out an electroencephalography (EEG) experiment, in order to detect the time when the brain generators responsible for these decisions have been sufficiently activated to lead to the next decision. Our analyses, based on a classification scheme, extract time-unlocked voltage topographies during reward presentation and use them to predict the type of decisions made on the subsequent trial. Classification accuracy, measured as the area under the Receiver Operator's Characteristic curve was on average 0.65 across 7 subjects. Classification accuracy was above chance levels already after 516 ms on average, across subjects. We speculate that decisions were already made before this critical period, as confirmed by a positive correlation with reaction times across subjects. On an individual subject basis, distributed source estimations were performed on the extracted topographies to statistically evaluate the neural correlates of decision-making. For trials leading to exploration, there was significantly higher activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the right supramarginal gyrus; areas responsible for modulating behavior under risk and deduction. No area was more active during exploitation. We show for the first time the temporal evolution of differential patterns of brain activation in an exploratory decision-making task on a single-trial basis.

Accreditation of forensic pathology service: a priviledge or a nightmare?

Forensic experts play a major role in the legal process as they offer professional expert opinion and evidence within the criminal justice system adjudicating on the innocence or alleged guilt of an accused person. In this respect medico-legal examination is an essential part of the investigation process, determining in a scientific way, the cause(s) and manner of unexpected and/or unnatural death or bringing clinical evidence in case of physical, psychological or sexual abuse in living people. From a legal perspective, these types of investigation must meet international standards i-e it should be independent, effective and prompt. Ideally the investigations should be conducted by board certified experts in forensic medicine, endowed with a solid experience in this field, without any hierarchical relationship with the prosecuting authorities and having access to appropriate facilities in order to provide forensic reports of high quality. In this respect, there is a need for any private or public national or international authority including non-governmental organisations seeking experts qualified in forensic medicine,to have at disposal a list of specialists working in accordance with high standards of professional performance within forensic pathology services that have been successfully submitted to an official accreditation/certification process using valid and acceptable criteria. To reach this goal the National Association of Medical examiners (NAME) has elaborated an accreditation/certification check-list which should be served as decision-making support to assist inspectors appointed to evaluate applicants. In the same spirit than NAME Accreditation Standards, ECLM board decided to set up an ad hoc working group with the mission to elaborate an accreditation/certification procedure similar to the NAME's one but taking into account the realities of forensic medicine practices in Europe and restricted to post-mortem investigations. This accreditation process applies to services and not to individual practitioners by emphasizing policies and procedures rather than professional performance. In addition the standards to be complied with should be considered as the minimum standards needed to get the recognition of performing and reliable forensic pathology service.