Foreword: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) workshop on observing and predicting Earth’s energy flows

The Earth’s climate, as well as planetary climates in general, is broadly regulated by three fundamental parameters: the total solar irradiance, the planetary albedo and the planetary emissivity. Observations from series of different satellites during the last three decades indicate that these three quantities are generally very stable. The total solar irradiation of some 1,361 W/m2 at 1 A.U. varies within 1 W/m2 during the 11-year solar cycle (Fröhlich 2012). The albedo is close to 29 % with minute changes from year to year but with marked zonal differences (Stevens and Schwartz 2012). The only exception to the overall stability is a minor decrease in the planetary emissivity (the ratio between the radiation to space and the radiation from the surface of the Earth). This is a consequence of the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas amounts making the atmosphere gradually more opaque to long-wave terrestrial radiation. As a consequence, radiation processes are slightly out of balance as less heat is leaving the Earth in the form of thermal radiation than the amount of heat from the incoming solar radiation. Present space-based systems cannot yet measure this imbalance, but the effect can be inferred from the increase in heat in the oceans where most of the heat accumulates. Minor amounts of heat are used to melt ice and to warm the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth.

Symmetric stability of compressible zonal flows on a generalized equatorial β plane

Sufficient conditions are derived for the linear stability with respect to zonally symmetric perturbations of a steady zonal solution to the nonhydrostatic compressible Euler equations on an equatorial � plane, including a leading order representation of the Coriolis force terms due to the poleward component of the planetary rotation vector. A version of the energy–Casimir method of stability proof is applied: an invariant functional of the Euler equations linearized about the equilibrium zonal flow is found, and positive definiteness of the functional is shown to imply linear stability of the equilibrium. It is shown that an equilibrium is stable if the potential vorticity has the same sign as latitude and the Rayleigh centrifugal stability condition that absolute angular momentum increase toward the equator on surfaces of constant pressure is satisfied. The result generalizes earlier results for hydrostatic and incompressible systems and for systems that do not account for the nontraditional Coriolis force terms. The stability of particular equilibrium zonal velocity, entropy, and density fields is assessed. A notable case in which the effect of the nontraditional Coriolis force is decisive is the instability of an angular momentum profile that decreases away from the equator but is flatter than quadratic in latitude, despite its satisfying both the centrifugal and convective stability conditions.

On the existence of two-dimensional Euler flows satisfying energy-Casimir stability criteria

The energy-Casimir stability method, also known as the Arnold stability method, has been widely used in fluid dynamical applications to derive sufficient conditions for nonlinear stability. The most commonly studied system is two-dimensional Euler flow. It is shown that the set of two-dimensional Euler flows satisfying the energy-Casimir stability criteria is empty for two important cases: (i) domains having the topology of the sphere, and (ii) simply-connected bounded domains with zero net vorticity. The results apply to both the first and the second of Arnold’s stability theorems. In the spirit of Andrews’ theorem, this puts a further limitation on the applicability of the method. © 2000 American Institute of Physics.

Nonlinear stability of Euler flows in two-dimensional periodic domains

The non-quadratic conservation laws of the two-dimensional Euler equations are used to show that the gravest modes in a doubly-periodic domain with aspect ratio L = 1 are stable up to translations (or structurally stable) for finite-amplitude disturbances. This extends a previous result based on conservation of energy and enstrophy alone. When L 1, a saturation bound is established for the mode with wavenumber |k| = L −1 (the next-gravest mode), which is linearly unstable. The method is applied to prove nonlinear structural stability of planetary wave two on a rotating sphere.

Rigorous bounds on the nonlinear saturation of instabilities to parallel shear flows

A novel method is presented for obtaining rigorous upper bounds on the finite-amplitude growth of instabilities to parallel shear flows on the beta-plane. The method relies on the existence of finite-amplitude Liapunov (normed) stability theorems, due to Arnol'd, which are nonlinear generalizations of the classical stability theorems of Rayleigh and Fjørtoft. Briefly, the idea is to use the finite-amplitude stability theorems to constrain the evolution of unstable flows in terms of their proximity to a stable flow. Two classes of general bounds are derived, and various examples are considered. It is also shown that, for a certain kind of forced-dissipative problem with dissipation proportional to vorticity, the finite-amplitude stability theorems (which were originally derived for inviscid, unforced flow) remain valid (though they are no longer strictly Liapunov); the saturation bounds therefore continue to hold under these conditions.

Remarks concerning the double cascade as a necessary mechanism for the instability of steady equivalent-barotropic flows

n a recent paper, Petroniet al. claim that a necessary condition for the instability of two-dimensional steady flows is a «double cascade» of energy and enstrophy respectively to larger and to smaller scales of motion. It is shown here that the analytical reasoning employed by Petroniet al. is flawed and that their conclusions are incorrect. What is true is that in any scale interaction (whether an instability or not), neither energy nor enstrophy can be transferred in one spectral direction only, but this result is extremely well known.

An exact local conservation theorem for finite-amplitude disturbances to non-parallel shear flows, with remarks on Hamiltonian structure and on Arnol'd's stability theorems

Disturbances of arbitrary amplitude are superposed on a basic flow which is assumed to be steady and either (a) two-dimensional, homogeneous, and incompressible (rotating or non-rotating) or (b) stably stratified and quasi-geostrophic. Flow over shallow topography is allowed in either case. The basic flow, as well as the disturbance, is assumed to be subject neither to external forcing nor to dissipative processes like viscosity. An exact, local ‘wave-activity conservation theorem’ is derived in which the density A and flux F are second-order ‘wave properties’ or ‘disturbance properties’, meaning that they are O(a2) in magnitude as disturbance amplitude a [rightward arrow] 0, and that they are evaluable correct to O(a2) from linear theory, to O(a3) from second-order theory, and so on to higher orders in a. For a disturbance in the form of a single, slowly varying, non-stationary Rossby wavetrain, $\overline{F}/\overline{A}$ reduces approximately to the Rossby-wave group velocity, where (${}^{-}$) is an appropriate averaging operator. F and A have the formal appearance of Eulerian quantities, but generally involve a multivalued function the correct branch of which requires a certain amount of Lagrangian information for its determination. It is shown that, in a certain sense, the construction of conservable, quasi-Eulerian wave properties like A is unique and that the multivaluedness is inescapable in general. The connection with the concepts of pseudoenergy (quasi-energy), pseudomomentum (quasi-momentum), and ‘Eliassen-Palm wave activity’ is noted. The relationship of this and similar conservation theorems to dynamical fundamentals and to Arnol'd's nonlinear stability theorems is discussed in the light of recent advances in Hamiltonian dynamics. These show where such conservation theorems come from and how to construct them in other cases. An elementary proof of the Hamiltonian structure of two-dimensional Eulerian vortex dynamics is put on record, with explicit attention to the boundary conditions. The connection between Arnol'd's second stability theorem and the suppression of shear and self-tuning resonant instabilities by boundary constraints is discussed, and a finite-amplitude counterpart to Rayleigh's inflection-point theorem noted

Computer simulations of pyroclastic flows from dome collapse

We present a method of simulating both the avalanche and surge components of pyroclastic flows generated by lava collapsing from a growing Pelean dome. This is used to successfully model the pyroclastic flows generated on 12 May 1996 by the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. In simulating the avalanche component we use a simple 3-fold parameterisation of flow acceleration for which we choose values using an inverse method. The surge component is simulated by a 1D hydraulic balance of sedimentation of clasts and entrainment of air away from the avalanche source. We show how multiple simulations based on uncertainty of the starting conditions and parameters, specifically location and size (mass flux), could be used to map hazard zones.

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2oC temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4oC by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4oC pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.