Daily thin-ice thickness maps from modis thermal infrared imagery

Accurate knowledge of ice-production rates within the marginal ice zones of the Arctic Ocean requires monitoring of the thin-ice distribution within polynyas. The thickness of the ice layer controls the heat loss and hence the new-ice formation. An established thinice algorithm using high-resolution MODIS data allows deriving the ice-thickness distribution within polynyas. The average uncertainty is ±4.7 cm for ice thicknesses below 0.2 m. In this study, the ice-thickness distributions within the Laptev Sea polynya for the two winter seasons 2007/08 and 2008/09 are calculated. Then, a new method is applied to determine a daily MODIS thin-ice product.

A low mortality, high morbidity reduced intensity status epilepticus (RISE) model of epilepsy and epileptogenesis in the rat

Animal models of acquired epilepsies aim to provide researchers with tools for use in understanding the processes underlying the acquisition, development and establishment of the disorder. Typically, following a systemic or local insult, vulnerable brain regions undergo a process leading to the development, over time, of spontaneous recurrent seizures. Many such models make use of a period of intense seizure activity or status epilepticus, and this may be associated with high mortality and/or global damage to large areas of the brain. These undesirable elements have driven improvements in the design of chronic epilepsy models, for example the lithium-pilocarpine epileptogenesis model. Here, we present an optimised model of chronic epilepsy that reduces mortality to 1% whilst retaining features of high epileptogenicity and development of spontaneous seizures. Using local field potential recordings from hippocampus in vitro as a probe, we show that the model does not result in significant loss of neuronal network function in area CA3 and, instead, subtle alterations in network dynamics appear during a process of epileptogenesis, which eventually leads to a chronic seizure state. The model’s features of very low mortality and high morbidity in the absence of global neuronal damage offer the chance to explore the processes underlying epileptogenesis in detail, in a population of animals not defined by their resistance to seizures, whilst acknowledging and being driven by the 3Rs (Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of animal use in scientific procedures) principles.

Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Material and methods The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. Results A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6 +/- 15.6 years vs. 33.9 +/- 14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. Conclusion SLE patients living in the state of Silo Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Chagas disease-related mortality trends, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985 to 2006: a study using multiple causes of death

Objectives. To study mortality trends related to Chagas disease taking into account all mentions of this cause listed on any line or part of the death certificate. Methods. Mortality data for 1985-2006 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Chagas disease was classified as the underlying cause-of-death or as an associated cause-of-death (non-underlying). The total number of times Chagas disease was mentioned on the death certificates was also considered. Results. During this 22-year period, there were 40 002 deaths related to Chagas disease: 34 917 (87.29%) classified as the underlying cause-of-death and 5 085 (12.71%) as an associated cause-of-death. The results show a 56.07% decline in the death rate due to Chagas disease as the underlying cause and a stabilized rate as associated cause. The number of deaths was 44.5% higher among men. The fact that 83.5% of the deaths occurred after 45 years of age reflects a cohort effect. The main causes associated with Chagas disease as the underlying cause-of-death were direct complications due to cardiac involvement, such as conduction disorders, arrhythmias and heart failure. Ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disorders and neoplasms were the main underlying causes when Chagas was an associated cause-of-death. Conclusions. For the total mentions to Chagas disease, a 51.34% decline in the death rate was observed, whereas the decline in the number of deaths was only 5.91%, being lower among women and showing a shift of deaths to older age brackets. Using the multiple cause-of-death method contributed to the understanding of the natural history of Chagas disease.

Sex and socioeconomic inequalities of lung cancer mortality in Barcelona, Spain and Sao Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this paper was to assess sex and socioeconomic inequalities in lung cancer mortality in two major cities of Europe and South America. Official information on mortality and population allowed the estimation of sex- and age-specific death rates for Barcelona, Spain and Sao Paulo, Brazil (1995-2003). Mortality trends and levels were independently assessed for each city and subsequently compared. Rate ratios assessed by Poisson regression analysis addressed hypotheses of association between the outcome and socioeconomic covariates (human development index, unemployment and schooling) at the inner-city area level. Barcelona had a higher mortality in men (76.9/100000 inhabitants) than Sao Paulo (38.2/100 000 inhabitants); although rates were decreasing for the former (-2%/year) and levelled-off for the [after. Mortality in women ranked similarly (9.1 for Barcelona, 11.5 for Sao Paulo); with an increasing trend for women aged 35-64 years (+ 7.7%/year in Barcelona and + 2.4%/year in Sao Paulo). The socioeconomic gradient of mortality in men was negative for Barcelona and positive for Sao Paulo; for women, the socioeconomic gradient was positive in both cities. Negative gradients indicate that deprived areas suffer a higher burden of disease; positive gradients suggest that prosmoking lifestyles may have been more prevalent in more affluent areas during the last decades. Sex and socioeconomic inequalities of lung cancer mortality reinforce the hypothesis that the epidemiologic profile of cancer can be improved by an expanded access to existing technology of healthcare and prevention. The continuous monitoring of inequalities in health may contribute to the concurrent promotion of well-being and social justice.

Paracoccidioidomycosis-related mortality trend, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: a study using multiple causes of death

Objective. To investigate mortality in which paracoccidioidomycosis appears on any line or part of the death certificate. Method. Mortality data for 1985-2005 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Standardized mortality coefficients were calculated for paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death and as an associated cause-of-death, as well as for the total number of times paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned on the death certificates. Results. During this 21-year period, there were 1950 deaths related to paracoccidioidomycosis; the disease was the underlying cause-of-death in 1 164 cases (59.69%) and an associated cause-of-death in 786 (40.31%). Between 1985 and 2005 records show a 59.8% decline in the mortality coefficient due to paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause and a 53.0% decline in the mortality as associated cause. The largest number of deaths occurred among men, in the older age groups, and among rural workers, with an upward trend in winter months. The main causes associated with paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death were pulmonary fibrosis, chronic lower respiratory tract diseases, and pneumonias. Malignant neoplasms and AIDS were the main underlying causes when paracoccidioidomycosis was an associated cause-of-death. The decision tables had to be adapted for the automated processing of causes of death in death certificates where paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned. Conclusions. Using the multiple cause-of-death method together with the traditional underlying cause-of-death approach provides a new angle on research aimed at broadening our understanding of the natural history of paracoccidioidomycosis.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunctions are independent risk factors for mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up: the Japanese-Brazilian thyroid study

Objective: The currently available data concerning the influence of subclinical thyroid disease (STD) on morbidity and mortality are conflicting. Our objective was to investigate the relationships between STD and cardiometabolic profile and cardiovascular disease at baseline, as well as with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up. Design: Prospective, observational study. Methods: An overall of 1110 Japanese-Brazilians aged above 30 years, free of thyroid disease, and not taking thyroid medication at baseline were studied. In a cross-sectional analysis, we investigated the prevalence of STD and its relationship with cardiometabolic profile and cardiovascular disease. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were assessed for participants followed for up to 7.5 years. Association between STD and mortality was drawn using multivariate analysis, adjusting for potential confounders. Results: A total of 913 (82.3%) participants had euthyroidism, 99 (8.7%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, and 69 (6.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. At baseline, no association was found between STD and cardiometabolic profile or cardiovascular disease. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs (95% confidence interval)) for all-cause mortality were significantly higher for individuals with both subclinical hyperthyroidism (HR, 3.0 (1.5-5.9); n=14) and subclinical hypothyroidism (HR, 2.3 (1.2-4.4); n=13) than for euthyroid subjects. Cardiovascular mortality was significantly associated with subclinical hyperthyroidism (HR, 3.3 (1.4-7.5); n=8), but not with subclinical hypothyroidism (HR, 1.6 (0.6-4.2); n=5). Conclusion: In the Japanese-Brazilian population, subclinical hyperthyroidism is an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, while subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with all-cause mortality.

Medicines and other Resources Utilized in Order to Cope Infants Diseases in the Family Daily Life: a qualitative study

Medicines and other Resources Utilized in Order to Cope Infants Diseases in the Family Daily Life: a qualitative study. The study proposes to investigate the use of medications, medicinal plants and other therapeutic resources to cope infants diseases in the domestic realm in an urban area. The ethnographic research method was utilized as referential, guiding the study for 10 months with 20 fortnight meetings in the domicile of 15 families. The study followed up 180 episodes of disease, 74,5% were treated, in a first instance, at home, resulting in the use of 212 therapeutic resources. The main type of therapeutic resource utilized was industrialized medicines, differing considerably from its clinic recommendations. The realm of the health services was more mobilized as a second treatment option. In the community realm, treatment of diseases known from the popular culture was performed via blessings and prayers. The families use medicines as cultural practices and the acceptance of some type of treatment depends on the expectations and experiences of the family.

Intake, water consumption, ruminal fermentation, and stress response of beef heifers fed after different lengths of delays in the daily feed delivery time

Four rumen-fistulated Holstein heifers (134 +/- 1 kg initial BW) were used in a 4 x 4 Latin square design to determine the effects of delaying daily feed delivery time on intake, ruminal fermentation, behavior, and stress response. Each 3-wk experimental period was preceded by 1 wk in which all animals were fed at 0800 h. Feed bunks were cleaned at 0745 h and feed offered at 0800 h (T0, no delay), 0900 (T1), 1000 (T2), and 1100 (T3) from d1 to 21 with measurements taken during wk 1 and 3. Heifers were able to see each other at all times. Concentrate and barley straw were offered in separate compartments of the feed bunks, once daily and for ad libitum intake. Ruminal pH and saliva cortisol concentrations were measured at 0, 4, 8, and 12 h postfeeding on d 3 and 17 of each experimental period. Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were measured on d 17. Increasing length of delay in daily feed delivery time resulted in a quadratic response in concentrate DMI (low in T1 and T2; P = 0.002), whereas straw DMI was greatest in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.03). Treatments affected the distribution of DMI within the day with a linear decrease observed between 0800 and 1200 h but a linear increase during nighttimes (2000 to 0800 h), whereas T1 and T2 had reduced DMI between 1200 and 1600 h (quadratic P = 0.04). Water consumption (L/d) was not affected but decreased linearly when expressed as liters per kilogram of DMI (P = 0.01). Meal length was greatest and eating rate slowest in T1 and T2 (quadratic P <= 0.001). Size of the first meal after feed delivery was reduced in T1 on d 1 (cubic P = 0.05) and decreased linearly on d 2 (P = 0.01) after change. Concentrate eating and drinking time (shortest in T1) and straw eating time (longest in T1) followed a cubic trend (P = 0.02). Time spent lying down was shortest and ruminating in standing position longest in T1 and T2. Delay of feeding time resulted in greater daily maximum salivary cortisol concentration (quadratic P = 0.04), which was greatest at 0 h in T1 and at 12 h after feeding in T2 (P < 0.05). Daily mean fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were greatest in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.04). Ruminal pH showed a treatment effect at wk 1 because of increased values in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.01). Delaying feed delivery time was not detrimental for rumen function because a stress response was triggered, which led to reduced concentrate intake, eating rate, and size of first meal, and increased straw intake. Increased salivary cortisol suggests that animal welfare is compromised.

Mechanisms Associated with Large Daily Rainfall Events in Northeast Brazil

The mechanisms resulting in large daily rainfall events in Northeast Brazil are analyzed using data filtering to exclude periods longer than 30 days. Composites of circulation fields that include all independent events do not reveal any obvious forcing mechanisms as multiple patterns contribute to Northeast Brazil precipitation variability. To isolate coherent patterns, subsets of events are selected based on anomalies that precede the Northeast Brazil precipitation events at different locations. The results indicate that at 10 degrees S, 40 degrees W, the area of lowest annual rainfall in Brazil, precipitation occurs mainly in association with trailing midlatitude synoptic wave trains originating in either hemisphere. Closer to the equator at 5 degrees S, 37.5 degrees W, an additional convection precursor is found to the west, with a spatial structure consistent with that of a Kelvin wave. Although these two sites are located within only several hundred kilometers of each other and the midlatitude patterns that induce precipitation appear to be quite similar, the dates on which large precipitation anomalies occur at each location are almost entirely independent, pointing to separate forcing mechanisms.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Modeling hourly and daily fractions of UV, PAR and NIR to global solar radiation under various sky conditions at Botucatu, Brazil

In this analysis, using available hourly and daily radiometric data performed at Botucatu, Brazil, several empirical models relating ultraviolet (UV), photosynthetically active (PAR) and near infrared (NIR) solar global components with solar global radiation (G) are established. These models are developed and discussed through clearness index K(T) (ratio of the global-to-extraterrestrial solar radiation). Results obtained reveal that the proposed empirical models predict hourly and daily values accurately. Finally. the overall analysis carried Out demonstrates that the sky conditions are more important in developing correlation models between the UV component and the global solar radiation. The linear regression models derived to estimate PAR and NIR components may be obtained without sky condition considerations within a maximum variation of 8%. In the case of UV, not taking into consideration the sky condition may cause a discrepancy of up to 18% for hourly values and 15% for daily values. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.