Models of human behaviour in social-ecological systems

Environmental change research often relies on simplistic, static models of human behaviour in social-ecological systems. This limits understanding of how social-ecological change occurs. Integrative, process-based behavioural models, which include feedbacks between action, and social and ecological system structures and dynamics, can inform dynamic policy assessment in which decision making is internalised in the model. These models focus on dynamics rather than states. They stimulate new questions and foster interdisciplinarity between and within the natural and social sciences.

Forecasting models of retail rents

The authors model retail rents in the United Kingdom with use of vector-autoregressive and time-series models. Two retail rent series are used, compiled by LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker, and the emphasis is on forecasting. The results suggest that the use of the vector-autoregression and time-series models in this paper can pick up important features of the data that are useful for forecasting purposes. The relative forecasting performance of the models appears to be subject to the length of the forecast time-horizon. The results also show that the variables which were appropriate for inclusion in the vector-autoregression systems differ between the two rent series, suggesting that the structure of optimal models for predicting retail rents could be specific to the rent index used. Ex ante forecasts from our time-series suggest that both LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker real retail rents will exhibit an annual growth rate above their long-term mean.

In vitro and in vivo models of colorectal cancer: antigenotoxic activity of berries.

The etiology of colorectal cancer (CRC), a common cause of cancer-related mortality globally, has strong associations with diet. There is considerable epidemiological evidence that fruits and vegetables are associated with reduced risk of CRC. This paper reviews the extensive evidence, both from in vitro studies and animal models, that components of berry fruits can modulate biomarkers of DNA damage and that these effects may be potentially chemoprotective, given the likely role that oxidative damage plays in mutation rate and cancer risk. Human intervention trials with berries are generally consistent in indicating a capacity to significantly decrease oxidative damage to DNA, but represent limited evidence for anticarcinogenicity, relying as they do on surrogate risk markers. To understand the effects of berry consumption on colorectal cancer risk, future studies will need to be well controlled, with defined berry extracts, using suitable and clinically relevant end points and considering the importance of the gut microbiota.

A review of time use models of residential electricity demand

Residential electricity demand in most European countries accounts for a major proportion of overall electricity consumption. The timing of residential electricity demand has significant impacts on carbon emissions and system costs. This paper reviews the data and methods used in time use studies in the context of residential electricity demand modelling. It highlights key issues which are likely to become more topical for research on the timing of electricity demand following the roll-out of smart metres.

Disparity-driven vs blur-driven models of accommodation and convergence in binocular vision and intermittent strabismus

Background. Current models of concomitant, intermittent strabismus, heterophoria, convergence and accommodation anomalies are either theoretically complex or incomplete. We propose an alternative and more practical way to conceptualize clinical patterns. Methods. In each of three hypothetical scenarios (normal; high AC/A and low CA/C ratios; low AC/A and high CA/C ratios) there can be a disparity-biased or blur-biased “style”, despite identical ratios. We calculated a disparity bias index (DBI) to reflect these biases. We suggest how clinical patterns fit these scenarios and provide early objective data from small illustrative clinical groups. Results. Normal adults and children showed disparity bias (adult DBI 0.43 (95%CI 0.50-0.36), child DBI 0.20 (95%CI 0.31-0.07) (p=0.001). Accommodative esotropes showed less disparity-bias (DBI 0.03). In the high AC/A and low CA/C scenario, early presbyopes had mean DBI of 0.17 (95%CI 0.28-0.06), compared to DBI of -0.31 in convergence excess esotropes. In the low AC/A and high CA/C scenario near exotropes had mean DBI of 0.27, while we predict that non-strabismic, non-amblyopic hyperopes with good vision without spectacles will show lower DBIs. Disparity bias ranged between 1.25 and -1.67. Conclusions. Establishing disparity or blur bias, together with knowing whether convergence to target demand exceeds accommodation or vice versa explains clinical patterns more effectively than AC/A and CA/C ratios alone. Excessive bias or inflexibility in near-cue use increases risk of clinical problems. We suggest clinicians look carefully at details of accommodation and convergence changes induced by lenses, dissociation and prisms and use these to plan treatment in relation to the model.

From Hippocrates to commodities: three models of NHS governance

A series of inquiries and reports suggest considerable failings in the care provided to some patients in the NHS. Although the Bristol Inquiry report of 2001 led to the creation of many new regulatory bodies to supervise the NHS, they have never enjoyed consistent support from government and the Mid Staffordshire Inquiry in 2013 suggests they made little difference. Why do some parts of the NHS disregard patients’ interests and how we should we respond to the challenge? The following discusses the evolution of approaches to NHS governance through the Hippocratic, Managerial and Commercial models, and assesses their risks and benefits. Apart from the ethical imperative, the need for effective governance is driven both by the growth in information available to the public and the resources wasted by ineffective systems of care. Appropriate solutions depend on an understanding of the perverse incentives inherent in each model and the need for greater sensitivity to the voices of patients and the public.

The economic theory of the firm as a foundation for international business theory

The economic theory of the firm is central to the theory of the multinational enterprise. Recent literature on multinationals, however, makes only limited reference to the economic theory of the firm. Multinationals play an important role in coordinating the international division of labour through internal markets. The paper reviews the economic principles that underlie this view. Optimal internalisation equates marginal benefits and costs. The benefits of internalisation stem mainly from the difficulties of licensing proprietary knowledge, reflecting the view that MNEs possess an ‘ownership’ or ‘firm-specific’ advantage. The costs of internalisation, it is argued, reflect managerial capability, and in particular the capability to manage a large firm. The paper argues that management capability is a complement to ownership advantage. Ownership advantage determines the potential of the firm, and management capability governs the fulfilment of this potential through overcoming barriers to growth. The analysis is applied to a variety of issues, including out-sourcing, geographical dispersion of production, and regional specialisation in marketing.

Study of picosecond processes of an intercalated dipyridophenazine Cr(iii) complex bound to defined sequence DNAs using transient absorption and time-resolved infrared methods

Picosecond transient absorption (TA) and time-resolved infrared (TRIR) measurements of rac-[Cr(phen)2(dppz)]3+ (1) intercalated into double-stranded guanine-containing DNA reveal that the excited state is very rapidly quenched. As no evidence was found for the transient electron transfer products, it is proposed that the back electron transfer reaction must be even faster (<3 ps).

New models of North West European Holocene palaeogeography and inundation

This paper presents new 500 year interval palaeogeographic models for Britain, Ireland and the North West French coast from 11000 cal. BP to present. These models are used to calculate the varying rates of inundation for different geographical zones over the study period. This allows for consideration of the differential impact that Holocene sea-level rise had across space and time, and on past societies. In turn, consideration of the limitations of the models helps to foreground profitable areas for future research.

On flow reversal boundaries and transpolar voltage in average models of high-latitude convection

The implications of polar cap expansions, contractions and movements for empirical models of high-latitude plasma convection are examined. Some of these models have been generated by directly averaging flow measurements from large numbers of satellite passes or radar scans; others have employed more complex means to combine data taken at different times into large-scale patterns of flow. In all cases, the models have implicitly adopted the assumption that the polar cap is in steady state: they have all characterized the ionospheric flow in terms of the prevailing conditions (e.g. the interplanetary magnetic field and/or some index of terrestrial magnetic activity) without allowance for their history. On long enough time scales, the polar cap is indeed in steady state but on time scales shorter than a few hours it is not and can oscillate in size and position. As a result, the method used to combine the data can influence the nature of the convection reversal boundary and the transpolar voltage in the derived model. This paper discusses a variety of effects due to time-dependence in relation to some ionospheric convection models which are widely applied. The effects are shown to be varied and to depend upon the procedure adopted to compile the model.

Bond graph models of DC-DC converters operating in both CCM and DCM

In this paper, Bond Graphs are employed to develop a novel mathematical model of conventional switched-mode DC-DC converters valid for both continuous and discontinuous conduction modes. A unique causality bond graph model of hybrid models is suggested with the operation of the switch and the diode to be represented by a Modulated Transformer with a binary input and a resistor with fixed conductance causality. The operation of the diode is controlled using an if-then function within the model. The extracted hybrid model is implemented on a Boost and Buck converter with their operations to change from CCM to DCM and to return to CCM. The vector fields of the models show validity in a wide operation area and comparison with the simulation of the converters using PSPICE reveals high accuracy of the proposed model, with the Normalised Root Means Square Error and the Maximum Absolute Error remaining adequately low. The model is also experimentally tested on a Buck topology.

Understanding hybrid roles: the role of identity processes amongst physicians

Increasing attention has been paid in both public administration and organizational theory to understanding how physicians assume a ‘hybrid’ role as they take onmanagerial responsibilities. Limited theoretical attention has been devoted to the processes involved in negotiating, developing, and maintaining such a role.We draw on identity theory, using a qualitative, five-year longitudinal case study, to explore how hybrid physician–managers in the English National Health Service and the organizations they are situated in achieve this. We highlight the importance of saliency – how central an identity is to an individual’s values and beliefs – in managing new identities.We found three differing responses to taking on a hybrid physician–manager role, with identity emerging as a mitigating factor for negotiating potentially conflicting roles. We discuss the implications for existing theory and practice in the management of public organizations and identify an agenda for further research.