Social security in theory and practice (I): Facts and political theories

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forcescreate and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? We document some of the internationally and historically common features of Social Security programs including explicit and implicit taxes on labor supply, pay-as-you-go features, intergenerational redistribution, benefits which areincreasing functions of lifetime earnings and not means-tested. We partition theories of Social Security into three groups: "political", "efficiency" and "narrative" theories. We explore three political theories in this paper: the majority rational voting model (with its two versions: "the elderly as the leaders of a winning coalition with the poor" and the "once and for all election" model), the "time-intensive model of political competition" and the "taxpayer protection model". Each of the explanations is compared with the international and historical facts. A companion paper explores the "efficiency" and "narrative" theories, and derives implicationsof all the theories for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan.

Parental altruism under imperfect information: Theory and evidence

Can we reconcile the predictions of the altruism model of the family withthe evidence on parental monetary transfers in the US? This paper providesa new assessment of this question. I expand the altruism model by introducingeffort of the child and by relaxing the assumption of perfect informationof the parent about the labor market opportunities of the child. First,I solve and simulate a model of altruism and labor supply under imperfectinformation. Second, I use cross-sectional data to test the following prediction of the model: Are parental transfers especially responsive tothe income variations of children who are very attached to the labor market? The results of the analysis suggest that imperfect informationaccounts for many of the patterns of intergenerational transfers in theUS.

Indentifying human capital externalities: Theory with an application to US cities

The identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood. The existing (Mincerian) approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital. As a result, it yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products. We propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward. Another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital. Applications to US cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average -schooling externalities.

A positive theory of geographic mobility and social insurance

This paper presents a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model thatcan explain cross-country empirical regularities in geographical mobility,unemployment and labor market institutions. Rational agents vote overunemployment insurance (UI), taking the dynamic distortionary effects ofinsurance on the performance of the labor market into consideration.Agents with higher cost of moving, i.e., more attached to their currentlocation, prefer more generous UI. The key assumption is that an agent'sattachment to a location increases the longer she has resided there. UIreduces the incentive for labor mobility and increases, therefore, thefraction of attached agents and the political support for UI. The mainresult is that this self-reinforcing mechanism can give rise to multiplesteady-states-one 'European' steady-state featuring high unemployment,low geographical mobility and high unemployment insurance, and one'American' steady-state featuring low unemployment, high mobility andlow unemployment insurance.

Endogeneous matching in university-industry collaboration: Theory and empirical evidence from the UK

We develop a two-sided matching model to analyze collaboration between heterogeneousacademics and firms. We predict a positive assortative matching in terms of both scientificability and affinity for type of research, but negative assortative in terms of ability on one sideand affinity in the other. In addition, the most able and most applied academics and the mostable and most basic firms shall collaborate rather than stay independent. Our predictionsreceive strong support from the analysis of the teams of academics and firms that proposeresearch projects to the UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

A new species of Homalocerus Schoenherr from the Atlantic coast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil (Coleoptera, Belidae, Belinae), with notes on color pattern and on the sclerites of the internal sac

A new species of Homalocerus Schoenherr from the Atlantic coast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil (Coleoptera, Belidae, Belinae), with notes on color pattern and on the sclerites of the internal sac. Homalocerus bimaculatus sp. nov. (type locality: Brazil, São Paulo) is described and illustrated, and comments on the sclerites of the internal sac of aedeagus and on color pattern are provided. The new species is compared to other similar species of the genus, being distinguished by having three clusters of carmine pubescence on pronotum and two lateral whitish oval spots located slightly before the middle of each elytron. Six species of Homalocerus, including the new one, are known from the State of São Paulo. The previously published identification key for species of Homalocerus is updated to include H. bimaculatus.

Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Grinder's Group Mastery Theory : scientific research and its application to classroom teaching

Estudi centrat en el paper de la comunicació no verbal com a eina docent per a la gestió de l’aula, prenent com a referència el model de comunicació de Michael Grinder (Pentimento), basat en la Programació Neuro-lingüística (PNL). Aquest model s’analitza i es compara amb altres models i estudis sobre la comunicació no verbal, per establir-ne similituds i diferències. Per tal d’avaluar l’eficàcia de les tècniques de gestió de l’aula a través de la comunicació no verbal proposades per Grinder en un context educatiu real, s’inclouen i s’analitzen enregistraments de la implementació de diferents tècniques en un institut de secundària de Catalunya. Tota la informació recollida i analitzada permet valorar i ressaltar com és de significatiu tot allò que s’expressa més enllà del llenguatge, i per tant, com són d’importants i d’útils les habilitats comunicatives d’un professor en la seva tasca d’ensenyar.

Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

Cerebellar cleft: confirmation of the neuroimaging pattern.

We recently described the neuroimaging and clinical findings in 6 children with cerebellar clefts and proposed that they result from disruptive changes following prenatal cerebellar hemorrhage. We now report an additional series of 9 patients analyzing the clinical and neuroimaging findings. The clefts were located in the left cerebellar hemisphere in 5 cases, in the right in 3, and bilaterally in one child who had bilateral cerebellar hemorrhages as a preterm infant at 30 weeks gestation. In one patient born at 24 weeks of gestation a unilateral cerebellar hemorrhage has been found at the age of 4 months. Other findings included disordered alignment of the folia and fissures, an irregular gray/white matter junction, and abnormal arborization of the white matter in all cases. Supratentorial abnormalities were found in 4 cases. All but 2 patients were born at term. We confirm the distinct neuroimaging pattern of cerebellar clefts. Considering the documented fetal cerebellar hemorrhage in our first series, we postulate that cerebellar clefts usually represent residual disruptive changes after a prenatal cerebellar hemorrhage. Exceptionally, as now documented in 2 patients, cerebellar clefts can be found after neonatal cerebellar hemorrhages in preterm infants. The short-term outcome in these children was variable.

Iowa Uniform Crime Report, 2004

The National Uniform Crime Reporting System began with 400 cities representing 20 million inhabitants in 43 states on January 1st, 1930. Since the establishment of the Uniform Crime Reporting Program, the volume, diversity, and complexity of crime steadily increased while the UCR program remained virtually unchanged. Recognizing the increasing need for more in-depth statistical information and the need to improve the methodology used for compiling, analyzing, auditing, and publishing the collected data, an extensive study of the Uniform Crime reports was undertaken. The objective of this study was to meet law enforcement needs into the 21st century. The result of the study was NIBRS (National Incident Based Reporting System). Adoption of the NIBRS system took place in the mid 1980’s and Iowa began organizational efforts to implement the system. Conversion to IBR (Incident Based Iowa Uniform Crime Reporting) was completed January 1, 1991, as part of a national effort to implement incident based crime reporting, coordinated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the U.S. Department of Justice. Iowa was the fifth state in the nation to be accepted as a certified “reporting state” of incident based crime data to the national system.

Iowa Uniform Crime Report, 2003

SERIOUS CRIMES: the rate decreased 6.6 percent from 3,669 crimes per 100,000 population in 2002 to the adjusted rate of 3,427 crimes per 100,000 population in 2003. Also known as the Crime Index, serious crimes include the violent crimes of murder, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault and the property crimes of burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft. VIOLENT CRIMES: decreased 5.2 percent from 2002 to 2003, violent crimes dropped from an adjusted rate of 313.8 crimes per 100,000 population reported in 2002 to 297.4 crimes per 100,000 population in 2003. PROPERTY CRIMES: decreased 6.7 percent from an adjusted rate of 3,355 crimes per 100,000 population in 2002 to 3,131 crimes reported in 2003.

Iowa Uniform Crime Report, 2005

The National Uniform Crime Reporting System began with 400 cities representing 20 million inhabitants in 43 states on January 1st, 1930. Since the establishment of the Uniform Crime Reporting Program, the volume, diversity, and complexity of crime steadily increased while the UCR program remained virtually unchanged. Recognizing the increasing need for more in-depth statistical information and the need to improve the methodology used for compiling, analyzing, auditing, and publishing the collected data, an extensive study of the Uniform Crime reports was undertaken. The objective of this study was to meet law enforcement needs into the 21st century. The result of the study was NIBRS (National Incident Based Reporting System). Adoption of the NIBRS system took place in the mid 1980’s and Iowa began organizational efforts to implement the system. Conversion to IBR (Incident Based Iowa Uniform Crime Reporting) was completed January 1, 1991, as part of a national effort to implement incident based crime reporting, coordinated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the U.S. Department of Justice. Iowa was the fifth state in the nation to be accepted as a certified “reporting state” of incident based crime data to the national system.

Iowa Uniform Crime Report, 2006

The National Uniform Crime Reporting System began with 400 cities representing 20 million inhabitants in 43 states on January 1st, 1930. Since the establishment of the Uniform Crime Reporting Program, the volume, diversity, and complexity of crime steadily increased while the UCR program remained virtually unchanged. Recognizing the increasing need for more in-depth statistical information and the need to improve the methodology used for compiling, analyzing, auditing, and publishing the collected data, an extensive study of the Uniform Crime reports was undertaken. The objective of this study was to meet law enforcement needs into the 21st century. The result of the study was NIBRS (National Incident Based Reporting System). Adoption of the NIBRS system took place in the mid 1980’s and Iowa began organizational efforts to implement the system. Conversion to IBR (Incident Based Iowa Uniform Crime Reporting) was completed January 1, 1991, as part of a national effort to implement incident based crime reporting, coordinated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the U.S. Department of Justice. Iowa was the fifth state in the nation to be accepted as a certified “reporting state” of incident based crime data to the national system.